MED-Amin network
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MED-Amin network
(Mediterranean Agricultural Information Network) Fostering cooperation and experience sharing among the national information systems on agricultural (cereals) markets in the Mediterranean. The network of 13 countries is coordinated by CIHEAM, and more specifically by its Mediterranean Agronomic Institute (MAI) of Montpellier.
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November 2018 Food Outlook of the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS, FAO)

November 2018 Food Outlook of the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS, FAO) | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it

Food Outlook (biannual report), released on 07/11/2018 (FAO)

The outlook for global supplies of agricultural commodities in the 2018/19 marketing season remains broadly in line with earlier expectations. While the weather had some impact on crop prospects, the overall production at global level did not change significantly from the forecasts published in the July issue of Food Outlook. Beyond weather-induced revisions, the latest FAO revisions take into consideration the mounting uncertainties regarding trade policies, as well as the changes in exchange rates and rising energy prices. Several MED-Amin countries are concerned by this statement.

CIHEAM Newss insight:

Food Outlook and other GIEWS reports are available on the internet as part of the FAO world wide web at the following URL address: http://www.fao.org/giews/. Other relevant studies on markets and the global food situation can be found at http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation.

Bientôt disponible en français.

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Predictable agricultural trade conditions needed to address food security challenges (OECD-FAO release)

Predictable agricultural trade conditions needed to address food security challenges (OECD-FAO release) | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it

3 July 2018, Paris - Global agricultural production is growing steadily across most commodities, reaching record levels in 2017 for most cereals, meat types, dairy products and fish, while cereal stock levels have climbed to all-time highs, according to an annual report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The report stresses that agricultural trade plays an important role in promoting food security, underscoring the need for an enabling trade policy environment.

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 sees weakening growth in global demand for agricultural commodities and food, while anticipating continuing productivity improvements in the sector. As a result prices of main agricultural commodities are expected to remain low for the coming decade.

The report attributes the demand slowdown to a deceleration of demand growth in major emerging economies, stagnating per capita consumption of staple foods, and a further gradual decline in global population growth rates. 

This year's edition of the Agricultural Outlook includes a special chapter on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which faces simultaneous issues of food insecurity, rising malnutrition and management of limited natural resources.

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Italy's Grains Outlook and Forecast (World Grain)

Italy's Grains Outlook and Forecast (World Grain) | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it

May 3, 2018 - by Chris Lyddon

Italy has a diverse grains sector, with the country’s climate and taste for pasta making durum wheat an important crop. It needs to import wheat to fulfill the needs of its milling industry. It’s by far the European Union’s biggest producer of soy and of rice. Politically, Italy has been a strong opponent of genetically modified crops, while it is now pushing to develop advanced biofuels.

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IGC raises grains outlook for 2018-19 (World Grain)

IGC raises grains outlook for 2018-19 (World Grain) | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it

The International Grains Council (IGC) forecast total grains production at 2.088 billion tonnes in 2018-19, up from 2.087 billion in March but down from 2.093 billion tonnes forecast for 2017-18. Global wheat production in 2018-19 is forecast at 739 million tonnes, down from 741 million tonnes forecast a month ago and compared with 758 million tonnes forecast for 2017-18. Consumption is forecast a bit higher, at 745 million tonnes compared with 744 million tonnes in March and 740 million tonnes a year ago.

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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027: Projections on Cereals

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027: Projections on Cereals | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 released on the 3 of July 2018 describes, among other chapters, the market situation and highlights the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for world and national cereals markets for the ten-year period 2018-27.

Global cereal production is projected to expand by 13% by 2027, accounted for in large part by higher yields. Production of wheat is projected to increase from 750 Mt in the base period to 833 Mt in 2027, with most of the growth in India (20 Mt), followed by the European Union (12 Mt), the Russian Federation (10 Mt), Pakistan (6 Mt) and Turkey (5 Mt). Maize production is expected to rise by 161 Mt to 1.2 bln t, led by the People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) (31 Mt), Brazil (24 Mt) and the United States (22 Mt).

For maize and wheat, the Russian Federation is emerging as a major player on international markets, having surpassed the European Union in 2016 to become the top wheat exporter. For maize, market shares will increase for Brazil, Argentina and the Russian Federation while declining for the United States. Thailand, India, and Viet Nam are expected to remain the major suppliers on international rice markets, while Cambodia and Myanmar are projected to capture a greater share of the global export market. Over the projection period, prices are expected to increase slightly in nominal terms but decline modestly in real terms.

CIHEAM Newss insight:

To download the related chapter on cereals, please click on the link.

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EU agricultural outlook: continuous growth of cereal production expected (European Commission)

EU agricultural outlook: continuous growth of cereal production expected (European Commission) | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it

Published on 18 December 2017, the EU agricultural outlook report presents predictions for the EU agricultural markets and income for 2017 – 2030.

EU cereal production is expected to grow further to
341 million t by 2030, driven by feed demand, good export
prospects (in particular for wheat) and increasing use of cereals in industry. However, stronger growth will be held back by the limited potential for expanding the areas under cultivation and by slower yield growth in the EU than in other
regions of the world. Cereals stocks are expected to stabilise below historical levels, in particular for wheat and barley.

CIHEAM Newss insight:

Please download the full report here: https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/eu-agricultural-outlook-european-sugar-exports-double-continuous-growth-cereal-production-expected_en?_scpsug=bookmarked,1506054#_scpsug=bookmarked,1506054.

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Even with Lower HRW Outlook, U.S. Wheat Production Called Up for 2018/19 (US Wheat Associates)

Even with Lower HRW Outlook, U.S. Wheat Production Called Up for 2018/19 (US Wheat Associates) | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it

By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst

With the small, stressed hard red winter (HRW) wheat crop getting the lion’s share of attention, it was an initial surprise to read in USDA’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) that U.S. wheat production is expected to increase to 49.6 million metric tons (MMT) in 2018/19. That would be up 5 percent year over year, if realized.

The forecast increase is a result of greater harvested area and slightly higher average yield in the other classes. USDA forecast 2018/19 all wheat average yield at 46.8 bushels per acre (3.15 metric tons [MT] per hectare), up from 46.3 bushels per acre (3.11 MT per hectare) last year. Harvested area is expected to increase 1.3 million acres (526,000 hectares) in 2018/19. Crop condition ratings also matter in this forecast, and as the following by-class reviews show, HRW is clearly the exception to the up-trend in production.

CIHEAM Newss insight:

To read full article, please check the link here

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Black Sea Region: 2018/19 Outlook — BlackSeaGrain

Black Sea Region: 2018/19 Outlook — BlackSeaGrain | MED-Amin network | Scoop.it

The winter conditions favored crops all over the region. In particular, Ukrainian winter crops were rated the best in four years. But this year’s abnormally cold March induced a very late start and a slow pace of seeding early spring crops in the Black Sea region. Thus, taking all of the above factors into account, UkrAgroConsult predicts a 5-6% year-on-year decrease in the Black Sea grain crop due to lower harvests of wheat and barley, as well as decrease of the exports

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