MED-Amin network

Par Terre-net, 29/11/2018

Le cours des céréales européennes évoluait sans direction jeudi à la mi-journée, alors que des informations géopolitiques ayant de fortes incidences sur les cours des matières premières mondiales se succèdent.

Les cours du soja, du blé et du maïs ont progressé mercredi à la Bourse de Chicago, portés par des commentaires optimistes sur une potentielle détente dans la guerre commerciale entre les États-Unis et la Chine à quelques jours d'une rencontre entre les présidents Trump et Xi. « Les tensions entre la Russie et l'Ukraine font également l'objet de toutes les attentions, même si le blocage de l'accès à la mer d'Azov pour les exports ukrainiens n'a que peu d'incidence sur nos marchés », assure le cabinet Agritel dans une note.

by CRM AgriCommodities, 24/10/2018

Weeks of dry, hot weather have resulted in reduced wheat output in key producing/exporting regions in 2018 including Europe, the Black Sea, Australia and Canada. Although the full extent in Australia is still unknown, the final production figure will be highly likely to be lower than the current USDA’s 18.5MMT estimate. It implies that the cushion provided by record large stocks in 2017/18 has eroded, leaving little room for production accidents next year, even more so when coupled with supportive maize/barley fundamentals.

Although we have to remember that wheat is a weed and yields are made in May/June across the Northern hemisphere, the start of the campaign for the 2019 harvest is far from ideal. As per the map below, the drought in Europe and the Black Sea is ongoing and a widespread lack of moisture is evident across most of the continent. As such, the European Commission has warned in its October MARS Crop Monitoring bulletin (full report click here) that  warmer and substantially dryer-than-usual weather conditions in large parts of Europe hampered the sowing and emergence of winter crops’. However, there is still time for the crops to be drilled in Western Europe and some scattered showers are forecast in parts of southern Russia but France, the largest EU wheat producer, will remain dry for at least another week.

By the DG AGRI of the European Commission, 26/10/2018

The year on year performance of EU agri-food exports remains remarkably stable with the September 2017 - August 2018 period representing a 0.1% change on the previous 12 months. This was due to a slight decline during August 2018 with exports dropping to €11.3 billion (a decrease of 2%), with imports also falling slightly to €9.1 billion (a drop of 0.6%). These are the main findings from the latest monthly trade report (476.1 KB - PDF) published by the European Commission.

Exports of cereals (other than wheat and rice) have experienced a significant rise (of €51 million) with pasta and bread (a rise of €32 million) also performing strongly. However, wheat has  experienced a significant decrease, down €62 million and €47 million respectively.

by Reuters staff, 09/08/2018.

Analysts at Strategie Grains made another steep cut to their estimate for this year's European Union soft wheat harvest, citing parched conditions in northern Europe that have led to "catastrophic" yields in Germany and Scandinavia.

The latest crop estimate put production down 10 percent compared with last year’s volume. Barley is also affected to a less extent. “Disappointingly low yields are now confirmed in France, Italy, UK, and the central and southeast EU countries,” experts added. Cereal quality appeared mixed, with reasonable winter barley quality, very varied wheat results and particular concern about spring malting barley due to excessive protein, it said.