Complex systems and projects
19.4K views | +4 today
Follow
 
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
onto Complex systems and projects
Scoop.it!

Complexity in project management

Complexity in project management | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

The technology explosion that has revolutionized our capabilities has also created new risks — including a greater risk exposure for organizations if their projects and programs go wrong. In fact, for every US$1 billion dollars spent on projects, US$135 million is lost forever. (Source: PMI 2013 Pulse of the Profession®).

Compound this reality with the pitfalls of human behavior, system behavior, ambiguity and a global marketplace, and suddenly the project environment is highly complex with a lot of money at stake.  Ultimately, how your organization anticipates, comprehends and handles complexity determines its fate.

Philippe Vallats insight:

Nice work, but still some views which are not helpfull for complex projects, as "listen to experts" (chap. 4.2.5). By high uncertainty and unk unks, expertise is not of big help (for it confirms the belief that all can be known or mastered).


Further, the following keywords do not appear:

  • intuition
  • collective intelligence
  • improvisation
  • agile
  • iteration
  • courage
No comment yet.
Complex systems and projects
Inspiring news (engl-fr- de) that help to develop a systemic, mindful, complex adaptive thinking and leadership
Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Et vous, êtes-vous à l’aise avec votre non-savoir?

Et vous, êtes-vous à l’aise avec votre non-savoir? | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Nous sommes dans une société savante - du moins, c'est l'image qu'elle se donne d'elle-même. Or nous avons entendu durant cette période de pandémie plusieurs fois nos autorités déclarer "on ne sait pas", "les scientifiques ne savent pas", "on ne peut pas savoir". Aveu d'incompétence, ou alors y-a-t-il plus d'inconnues que nous voulons bien croire? [...]
No comment yet.
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Psychological-safety leadership in a time of flux | McKinsey

Psychological-safety leadership in a time of flux | McKinsey | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Experts illuminate the leadership imperatives of our time: ensuring psychological safety, emotional intelligence, and reimagining normalcy.
No comment yet.
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

When Crisis Strikes, Lead With Humanity

When Crisis Strikes, Lead With Humanity | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Three ways to provide reassurance while acknowledging uncertainty.
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience
Scoop.it!

How Coronavirus may be the stress test which finally unmasks the myths, vulnerabilities and follies of the global risk management discipline

How Coronavirus may be the stress test which finally unmasks the myths, vulnerabilities and follies of the global risk management discipline | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
The 2020 Coronavirus pandemic is now being called the most significant, global threat since World War II. Since the virus first emerged in late 2019 more than 700,000 cases have been reported in over 190 countries and territories, resulting in more than 30,000 deaths and with still no identifiable e
Philippe Vallat's curator insight, March 30, 6:28 AM

Excellent post, insightful

Philippe Vallat's curator insight, March 30, 6:29 AM

Excellent post, insightful

Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience
Scoop.it!

Why Economists Can't Understand Complex Systems: Not Even the Nobel Prize, William Nordhaus

Why Economists Can't Understand Complex Systems: Not Even the Nobel Prize, William Nordhaus | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

Nordhaus' approach to climate change mitigation highlights a general problem with how economists tend to tackle complex systems: their training makes them tend to see changes as smooth and gradual. But real-world systems, normally, do what they damn please, including crashing down in what we call the Seneca Effect.

Philippe Vallat's curator insight, October 16, 2018 11:20 AM

Do read, do figure out by yourself. Limits to Thinking...

Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Comment l'armée fait-elle face à l'incertitude ? (vidéo 33')

Conférence menée par le Général de division Jean-Marc Baquet.

Philippe Vallats insight:

Une belle conférence qui donne un excellent résumé des enjeux et opportunités

René Bart's curator insight, July 19, 2018 11:08 AM
Quelle intelligence, quelle clarté, quelle compréhension des enjeux. J'adore ! Et forcément, en matière de logistique, depuis le 6 juin 1944, on sait que les armées (US en tête) sont plus fortes que les entreprises. Bon, ok, aujourd'hui, .. Amazon ... !
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Einige nützliche Tipps und Hinweise für Politiker, Manager und solche, die es werden (oder sein) wollen —

Einige nützliche Tipps und Hinweise für Politiker, Manager und solche, die es werden (oder sein) wollen — | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Die letzten zehn Artikeln habe ich den Systemarchetypen gewidmet, wie sie Peter Senge in seinem Buch Die fünfte… by paaddor
Philippe Vallats insight:

Tolle Übersicht über Systemarchetypen

No comment yet.
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience
Scoop.it!

Systemic risks: a new challenge for risk management

Systemic risks: a new challenge for risk management | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
As risk analysis and risk management get increasingly caught up in political debates, a new way of looking at and defining the risks of modern technologies becomes necessary
Philippe Vallats insight:

"The dual nature of risk as a part of technological progress and as a social threat demands a dual strategy for risk management"

Steve Grey's comment, May 27, 2018 6:36 PM
This article highlights a broader challenge than the one it tackles directly. As we become increasingly conscious of the need to think systemically, we try to accommodate this in each of the specialist management processes we have adopted over the past few decades. The amount of effort being devoted to extending each of these, including risk management, becomes a major overhead.
Steve Grey's comment, May 27, 2018 6:41 PM
I believe that we will eventually come to the realisation that it is more fruitful to turn the approach around. Rather than say that because a system is complex each management method must take that into account, we could direct our attention to the way we understand and work with a complex system and integrate thinking about uncertainty and other matters into that. Focus on how we understand complex systems rather than put all this effort into bending established methods towards complexity.
Philippe Vallat's comment, May 29, 2018 4:44 AM
Let's change the mindset directly, and not the methods derivated from it
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

From the ‘crisis of perception’ to the ‘systems view of life’

How can we create a more sustainable human presence on Earth?

Philippe Vallats insight:

Systems thinking applied to an very actual and existential question

No comment yet.
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

COMPLEXITY, PROBLEM SOLVING, AND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES, by Joseph A. Tainter, 1996

Historical knowledge is essential to practical applications of ecological economics. Systems of problem solving develop greater complexity and higher costs over long periods. In time such systems either require increasing energy subsidies or they collapse. Diminishing returns to complexity in problem solving limited the abilities of earlier societies to respond sustainably to challenges, and will shape contemporary responses to global change. To confront this dilemma we must understand both the role of energy in sustaining problem solving, and our historical position in systems of increasing complexity.

No comment yet.
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Useful: Dave Snowden on resilience | More Beyond

While preparing a proposal for a series of leadership workshops on resilience, I came across this list of seven characteristics of resilience

No comment yet.
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience
Scoop.it!

« L'humain n'a pas besoin de machine pour s'augmenter »

« L'humain n'a pas besoin de machine pour s'augmenter » | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Christian Clot nous raconte pourquoi il a traversé seul les 4 milieux parmi les plus extrêmes de la planète. À la clé, les facultés d'adaptation de l'humanité.
Philippe Vallats insight:

"Une crise c’est quelque chose qui nous place en déficit par rapport à nos capacités de compréhension. " Un très bel article sur les capacités humaines, le temps, la peur, l'émerveillement...

Philippe Vallat's curator insight, January 18, 2018 12:04 PM

"Une crise c’est quelque chose qui nous place en déficit par rapport à nos capacités de compréhension. " Un très bel article sur les capacités humaines, le temps, la peur, l'émerveillement...

Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Theoretical Origin Of Systems Thinking

This two page essay will discuss the theoretical origin of systems thinking1 by following the development of
Holism2 and Reductionism3 in a chronological order. Broader explanations and additional information can be
found on Wikipedia in the following sections:
 Systems thinking
 Systems theory4
 Systems philosophy5
 Holism
 Reductionism
 Systems dynamics6

No comment yet.
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Coronavirus - COVID-19: a systemic view
Scoop.it!

COVID‐19 – how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else - Sturmberg - - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice

COVID‐19 – how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else - Sturmberg - - Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

The emergence of a coronavirus (SARS‐CoV‐2) with novel characteristics that made it highly infectious and particularly dangerous for an older age group and people with multiple morbidities brought our complex adaptive system (CAS) “society”—the economy, health systems, and individuals—to a virtual standstill. The COVID‐19 pandemic—caused by SARS‐Co‐2—is a typical wicked problem 1—we did not see it coming, we experience its effects, and it challenges our entrained ways of thinking and acting.

Philippe Vallat's curator insight, July 16, 3:39 AM

MUST READ PAPER.

"What we—collectively—need is a better and more widespread understanding of the sciences of CAS—they are wholes that cannot be understood by the nature and behaviour of its constituent parts; they are self‐organizing and emergent in light of challenges and changing contexts. We also need to acknowledge and mediate our “natural tendencies” to respond to unexpected complex problems in ad hoc—knee‐jerk—ways."

Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Facing the Age of Chaos - Jamais Cascio

We are in an age of chaos, an era that intensely, almost violently, rejects structure. It isn’t simple instability, it’s a reality that seems to actively resist efforts to understand what the hell is…
Philippe Vallats insight:

The BANI framework offers a lens through which to see and structure what’s happening in the world. At least at a surface level, the components of the acronym might even hint at opportunities for response: brittleness could be met by resilience and slack; anxiety can be eased by empathy and mindfulness; nonlinearity would need context and flexibility; incomprehensibility asks for transparency and intuition. These may well be more reactions than solutions, but they suggest the possibility that responses can be found.

No comment yet.
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience
Scoop.it!

Why we find it difficult to recognise a crisis - BBC Future

Why we find it difficult to recognise a crisis - BBC Future | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
The current pandemic has affected some countries more than others, partly because they have been slow to react to the crisis. That, it turns out, is a very human response.
Philippe Vallats insight:

Five characteristics of the best-prepared “high-reliability” organisations, which rarely experience disasters.

  1. Such organisations are “preoccupied with failure”, says Sutcliffe. “What I mean by that is they understood what they wanted to achieve, but they also thought a lot about the ways in which they could get sidetracked and the ways in which things could go wrong.” This includes taking near misses seriously. (…)
  2. High-reliability organisations also encourage their employees to avoid simplification and embrace complexity, even if that means abandoning appealing positive narratives.
  3. They spend most of their time focusing on the here and now, rather than on big-picture strategy.
  4. They build resilience, mostly by ensuring that their staff have the time and encouragement to tackle problems rather than sweeping them under the carpet.
  5. They have flexible decision-making structures, meaning decisions can variously be made by low-ranking people on the ground and upper management, depending on the nature of the crisis. 
Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 16, 1:28 AM

Five characteristics of the best-prepared “high-reliability” organisations, which rarely experience disasters.

  1. Such organisations are “preoccupied with failure”, says Sutcliffe. “What I mean by that is they understood what they wanted to achieve, but they also thought a lot about the ways in which they could get sidetracked and the ways in which things could go wrong.” This includes taking near misses seriously. (…)
  2. High-reliability organisations also encourage their employees to avoid simplification and embrace complexity, even if that means abandoning appealing positive narratives.
  3. They spend most of their time focusing on the here and now, rather than on big-picture strategy.
  4. They build resilience, mostly by ensuring that their staff have the time and encouragement to tackle problems rather than sweeping them under the carpet.
  5. They have flexible decision-making structures, meaning decisions can variously be made by low-ranking people on the ground and upper management, depending on the nature of the crisis. 
Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 16, 1:29 AM

Five characteristics of the best-prepared “high-reliability” organisations, which rarely experience disasters.

  1. Such organisations are “preoccupied with failure”, says Sutcliffe. “What I mean by that is they understood what they wanted to achieve, but they also thought a lot about the ways in which they could get sidetracked and the ways in which things could go wrong.” This includes taking near misses seriously. (…)
  2. High-reliability organisations also encourage their employees to avoid simplification and embrace complexity, even if that means abandoning appealing positive narratives.
  3. They spend most of their time focusing on the here and now, rather than on big-picture strategy.
  4. They build resilience, mostly by ensuring that their staff have the time and encouragement to tackle problems rather than sweeping them under the carpet.
  5. They have flexible decision-making structures, meaning decisions can variously be made by low-ranking people on the ground and upper management, depending on the nature of the crisis. 
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience
Scoop.it!

The Fall of Empires Explained in 10 Minutes

The Fall of Empires Explained in 10 Minutes | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
This is the presentation I gave to the meeting for the 50th anniversary of the Club of Rome on Oct 18th in Rome. The gist of the ide
Philippe Vallat's curator insight, October 23, 2018 4:51 AM

#Overshoot: The Fall of Empires Explained in 10 Minutes, by Ugo Bardi, based on the work of #Meadows and Tainter #collapse #systemsdynamics

Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Podcast: Cécile Wendling : l'art de la prospective (1h)

Podcast: Cécile Wendling : l'art de la prospective (1h) | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Essayer de prévoir le futur, de jouer à deviner de quoi demain sera fait, est un exercice difficile et l’histoire nous montre à posteriori que génération après génération ceux qui s’y sont essayé se trompent bien souvent. Cécile Wendling fait partie de ceux qui, au quotidien, continuent de se poser la question de l’avenir, ca
Philippe Vallats insight:

Interview très intéressante

No comment yet.
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Coupez une tête, il en repoussera deux ! De l'antifragilité opérationnelle

Coupez une tête, il en repoussera deux ! De l'antifragilité opérationnelle | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

Comme une espèce vivante, une organisation militaire doit pour assurer sa survie et même son développement, être à la fois conservatrice et progressiste, combiner l’ordinaire (le Cheng de Sun Tzu) et l’extraordinaire (le Qi), le solide éprouvé et l’audacieux.

No comment yet.
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Coaching Leaders
Scoop.it!

4 Tips for Navigating Ambiguity

4 Tips for Navigating Ambiguity | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

Ambiguity makes people feel uncomfortable—it’s a fear amplifier. The pace of change is fast, disruption is coming from many directions, and what worked in the past just doesn’t work anymore.


Via David Hain
David Hain's curator insight, June 28, 2018 5:08 AM

IDEO on sailing the waters of ambiguity - a necessary if not always  sufficient condition for success today.

Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Business change
Scoop.it!

What It Takes to Think Deeply About Complex Problems

What It Takes to Think Deeply About Complex Problems | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

The problems we’re facing often seem as complex as they do intractable. And as Albert Einstein is often quoted as saying, “We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.” So what does it take to increase the complexity of our thinking?


Via David Hain
David Hain's curator insight, May 15, 2018 6:04 AM

Don't fall for the 'we make the complex more simple' spiel - good decision making requires a grasp of complexity.

Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience
Scoop.it!

Researchers find the tipping point between resilience and collapse in complex systems

Researchers find the tipping point between resilience and collapse in complex systems | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
Using statistical physics, network theorists have developed the first-ever tool to identify whether systems -- be they technological, ecological, or biological -- are in danger of failing.
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience
Scoop.it!

The Seneca Effect: why decline is faster than growth

The Seneca Effect: why decline is faster than growth | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

For a long time, I had in mind the idea that when things start going bad, they tend to go bad fast. We might call this tendency the "Seneca effect" or the "Seneca cliff," from Lucius Annaeus Seneca who wrote that "increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."

Philippe Vallats insight:

Very understandable explanation by Ugo Bardi

Philippe Vallat's curator insight, February 22, 2018 11:27 AM

Very understandable explanation by Ugo Bardi

René Bart's comment, February 23, 2018 5:43 AM
High density of content, but very interesting analyze and approach supported by several models and curves. Thank you !
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Dave Snowden at TedX: A succinct overview of his groundbreaking work

Dave Snowden at TedX: A succinct overview of his groundbreaking work | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it
I first met Dave in 2002 when we were both employed by IBM. I remember experiencing an immediate resonance with his work, especially the inherent integrity of
No comment yet.
Scooped by Philippe Vallat
Scoop.it!

Complexity – What’s new?

Complexity – What’s new? | Complex systems and projects | Scoop.it

The existence of complexity in human systems is not new; we have simply become more conscious of it. We now know that we can distinguish complex systems from ordered systems and engage purposefully and productively with complexity.

No comment yet.