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Demographics are a great exception to this rule of unpredictability. After all, every single 20-year-old of the year 2030 exists right now, today, and they are all ten. So for someone trying to take a peek into the future, demographics offers one of the few variables that have a teeny bit of absolute predictability to them. 
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Harold Jarche maps Personal Knowledge Mastery (PKM) against Dave Snowden's Cynefin Framework. In this he looks at things from the perspective of structure and abstraction and concludes that in the more complex domains the teams, communities nd networks that form need to be less permanent and more flexible.
Matthew Farmer's insight:
The concept of Personal Knowledge Mastery is growing in popularity as we all seek to make sense of what our best next step should be in this incredibly complex world. PKM offers an approach that connects work with learning and at its heart is a principle of seeking information, making sense of it and sharing it in a reciprocal manner with others that broadens understanding and can lead to new insights and action.
In this article Harold Jarche (the leading author on PKM) argues that in more complex realms the groups (teams, communities and networks) that form to address knowledge areas need to be more open, informal and transient to be able to deal with the issues at hand. This suggests that the kind of leadership qualities that need to be developed to be successful in these complex times are those associated with being open, humble, curious, flexible and trustworthy.
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Article from BBC on the use of surveillance software to manage the productivity of remote workers. It askes the question, 'Many have struggled to get to grips with working from home, but would surveillance technology help?'
Matthew Farmer's insight:
Employee surveillance software seems like an archaic way to deal with the productivity of remote teams. It suggests that the humans that work for your company are in fact machines, that they have no sense of intrinsic motivation, that your team or company has no sense of purpose with which to inspire people, that you don't trust the people you work and that you have no personal influence as a manager or leader.
I would suggest that any company looking at this kind of approach should take a look at itself and answer these much more deep rooted questions - Why do we exist? Why do we have people doing these jobs and not machines? How can we equip our managers to lead in a more human way? What is it that motivates people?
Part of the problem is that people have grown up in a system where humans have been treated like machines and we have been taught to measure and reward people as if they are machines encouraged by terms like 'human capital' and 'staff productivity'. But the world is changing fast an this kind of thinking will not work over the longer term. If I worked for a company that adopted these practices, I think it's a great to get out. Not just because my company didn't trust me but also because the writing is on the wall for the company itself - it's not sustainable and it totally lacks imagination.
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The Stacey Matrix is a useful framework for considering how to make decisions in a complex adaptive system.
It uses two main dimensions - level of certainty and level of agreement. Traditional management training focuses most of its effort on the bottom left hand quadrant but in today's world many more of the challenges are not in that corner - they are in the complex zone or as Robert Stacey (the creator of the matrix) often referred at 'edge of chaos'.
Source: Stacey RD. Strategic management and organisational dynamics: the challenge of complexity. 3rd ed. Harlow: Prentice Hall, 2002. »
Emerging World's insight:
The Stacey matrix provides a useful way to determine what kind of leadership and decision-making approaches make sense in a complex adaptive world.
More and more of the decisions we are making currently are made in the zone that Ralph Stacey (the matrix's creator) calls 'the edge of chaos'.
In this zone traditional management approaches are not very effective but it is the zone of high creativity, innovation, and breaking with the past to create new modes of operating. The edge of chaos can therefore be an opportunity.
Sound appropriate for the times we live in?
Matthew
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This article from Donna Johnston focuses on the potential of digital learning In the past few years we have seen where the global workforce has been continually evolving and continues to do so. Organisations are facing increased competition, complexity as well as digital modernisation which is reshaping the mixture of our employees.
Matthew Farmer's insight:
During previous recessions learning budgets have usually been cut. In this fast moving world we're in right now to do so again would be a massive mistake.
It is only through learning that we will be able to get out of the messy situations that we find ourselves in. As this article from Donna Johnston outlines, the future of #Learning should be bright and it's future now.
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Emotionally charged capacities such as imagination can play an important role in thinking about future scenarios
David Tsipenyuk's insight:
Emotions play a very significant role in our working environment, in which we often spend a lot of time. Yet companies continue to primarily focus on the rational side with emotions being an inconvenience that needs to be tamed. Given the volatility and uncertainty, we are all experiencing due to the impact of the pandemic companies should embrace the anger, excitement. frustration and pride felt by employees as a vital part in having deeper conversations around engagement, creativity, values and risk-taking.
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How can Human Resources lead change? Simple approaches informed by systems complexity, community engagement and digital networks help evolve the practice of Human Resources and dramatically increase its positive impact on collective performance. Celine Schillinger, Engagement Leadership expert.
Matthew Farmer's insight:
Too often, argues Céline Schillinger, HR ends up being a barrier in the Change Leadership process and reinforcing old ways of doing things. She provides some helpful insights based on her 30 years of experience of corporate change activism on how to go about shifting things.
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"Clayton Christensen succeeded as the world's most influential business thinker principally through leadership storytelling"
Doreen Wanja Mutero's insight:
More and more leaders are using storytelling quite intentionally as a leadership tool. Whether it’s during the quarterly a townhall meeting, team meeting workshops or CEO speech, leaders are harnessing the power of great stories to build an emotional connection and deliver information that is memorable.
Dan Schwabel, author of “Lead with a Story: A Guide to Crafting Business Narratives that Captivate, Convince and Inspire” describes five most commonly used instances where leaders can use storytelling: inspiring the organization, setting a vision, teaching important lessons, defining culture and values, and explaining who you are and what you believe. Authentic story telling builds trust, engages people and enhances stickiness.
Doreen Mutero
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In this article, Céline Schillinger an expert in Leadership Engagement asks some thought provoking questions “If work is to become widely automatized, jobs to be replaced by machines and algorithms… then is human engagement at work a waste of time?” is engagement a historically dated, Western culture-related practice? And is it possible to stay relevant in the field of workplace culture without expert knowledge in robotics, algorithms, artificial intelligence, data-driven workforce management?”
She goes on to suggest that all the people impacted by the future should get a chance to co-design digital technologies. Business leaders and tech experts should create the necessary conditions for the mobilization and contribution of the whole ecosystem.
Doreen Wanja Mutero's insight:
In the 4th Industrial Revolution, it is evident that digital innovations are a force, either as a disruptor or an enabler of engagement efforts. As change is inevitable and rapid adaptation of technological shifts critical, leaders will need to involve the wider ecosystem in shaping their new digital path rather than having it shape them. The human skills needed in this era which are the soft skills often talked about will continue to form the core of successful technological adaptation outcomes.
Doreen Mutero
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As we start off this new year, John Maxwell reminds us that "When we think big, act small, and stay consistent, we see our dreams and our accomplishments far exceed what we initially imagined they could be and participate in the rewards and return they bring."
Doreen Wanja Mutero's insight:
I would title this article Dream Big and Stay Committed! A new year and indeed a new decade presents an exciting opportunity to restart. It’s an opportunity to reflect on how we have done things in the past and the impact that has had. Ultimately, what's energising is the big audacious dream that stands in front of us, not without fear or hesitation but despite it all, we are all working towards something, hopefully big. This article is a reminder to be have a long-term view of life and be consistent in the journey towards realising our goals.
Doreen Mutero
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Lisa Dreier, David Nabarro, and Jane Nelson have distilled five key elements of the systems change process into the ‘CLEAR’ framework for leading systems change. These five elements are not necessarily sequential – they may overlap or repeat in cycles throughout the course of an initiative.
The systems leadership approach is well-suited to complex challenges that require collective action, where no single entity is in control. However, the approach is challenging – involving high transaction costs, ambiguous outcomes and long timeframes. It is best applied to complex issues that cannot be solved through more direct means.
Matthew Farmer's insight:
At Emerging World, we increasingly talk about the importance of understanding the system in which you operate, how your company influences that system and is influenced by it. It's one of the reasons why Immersive Learning is so important.
Beyond understanding the system comes Systems Leadership - a way of leading that is increasingly important given the scale and scope of the challenges in front of us. Systems leaders are humble, great listeners and work tirelessly without seeking the limelight on broad issues they care passionately about. Society needs more great systems leaders so we need to identify them and develop them quickly and effectively.
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"To do their best work, people need to feel secure and safe in their workplace. " In this interview, Martha Lagase speaks with Amy C. Edmondson, author of The Fearless Organization who shares some guidance for managers and leaders. Managers can create psychological safety among the people they lead by inviting input through asking good questions, recognising the courage it takes to speak up and helping individuals see how their input matters. Although this requires effort, it is well worth the it.
Doreen Wanja Mutero's insight:
Good leadership and team effectiveness comes about through some good amount of deliberate effort and thoughfulness in how we do things. To create teams that are courageous and not pre-occupied with looking good, leaders must be intentional about the kind of workplace environment that they create. Whats interesting to note in this article is that psychological safety relates to diversity, inclusion and belonging.
Doreen Mutero
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Although there seems to be a lot of noise about digital disruption and the need to re-skill the workforce in technical skills required to succeed in a digital world, new research from IBM suggests that it's behavioural skills that are most needed.
Digital skills can be filled quickly from the young pool of talent entering the workforce . The behavioural skills take more time to develop
Matthew Farmer's insight:
According to Josh Bersin and IBM's latest research, it is no longer a digital skills gap that we are experiencing. These kinds of skills can be relatively quickly filled from the new pools of talent entering the workforce. Much more important to develop are behavioural skills.
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Dara Goldberg summarises 5 mindsets that will help people truly live with an open mind based on her own readings and reflections:
Matthew Farmer's insight:
We often hear and use the term ' keeping an open-mind' but was does it actually mean?
To me it's an important quality to hold in a time of complexity, division and ambiguousness.
In this piece Dara Goldberg summarises 5 different mindsets and values that it's helpful to adopt if we want to be truly open-minded.
Matthew Farmer
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The closing remarks from the World Agility Forum 2020 were made by Steve Denning. The forum brought together diverse groups of people interested in Agility and Agile as a management approach and a agreed on a A unified vision that they could all agree on that organizations should be about people creating value for other people.
Emerging World's insight:
I love the illustration that compares management in the complicated world of 20th century with complex world of the 21st, which is taken from the opening key note of the World Agility Forum that was held at the end of last month.
But what I find particularly interesting is that the Forum agreed on a vision that would bring the diverse practitioners in the world of Agile together. This was that 'organizations should be about people creating value for other people' - something they do not feel is the current norm.
It leads me on to a question - to what extent do you feel that your organization behaves as though the most important thing is about people creating value for other people?
Matthew
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This report from Coqual (formerly the Centre for Talent Innovation) dives into different elements of what constitutes belonging and how different sectors of the workforce experience belonging in the workplace. They identify 4 key elements of belonging:
They note different experiences of belonging from different groups. For example, within the American companies included in the survey, on average white men have the highest belonging and Asian women the lowest.
Amongst other interesting findings, they also analyse the payoffs that a greater sense of belonging brings such as loyalty, advocacy, engagement and perhaps most critically for those concerned with maintaining diverse workplaces - retention.
Emerging World's insight:
The concept of belonging has become a major issue of concern in recent years for a variety of reasons. Those focused on diversity and inclusion have noted that groups who do not feel they belong leave workplaces quickly despite the efforts of recruitment teams to reach out to under-represented communities.
While those concerned with employee engagement note that people that feel they belong are more engaged, productive and willing to carry a positive culture.
This study starts to explore the concept of belonging, how it can be measured, how different groups experience it (e.g. white men vs Asian women, leaders, vs managers vs rank and file etc.), the business impact of belonging etc. It's an interesting summary of an ongoing study that looks to be able to shed light on a topic of growing interest and gives a different lens to be able to understand how we work and why we work.
Matthew
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Steve Glaveski outlines 5 different levels of remote work and make the observation that in the early days of the pandemic, most companies were at level 2.
Matthew Farmer's insight:
In the early days of the pandemic as companies all around the world closed offices and started to work remotely, Steve Glaveski made the observation that most companies were at Level 2.
Now we're 6 months in, and the office still proves to be an elusive destination for many, where do you feel your team and your company are right now?
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Insights from Rita McGrath - When spring comes, snow melts first at the periphery, because that is where it is most exposed” Andy Grove, Intel’s fabled former CEO and author of Only the Paranoid Survive observed that “When spring comes, snow melts first at the periphery, because that is where it is most exposed”.
Emerging World's insight:
This post from Rita McGrath is from a couple of years ago but is more relevant now than ever.
Matthew Farmer
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Great companies are the children of winter.”
How might we leverage these newfound constraints as fertile ground to unleash an unprecedented level of creativity?
3 different mindsets that Chinese companies have been adopting during the path to recovery.
Emerging World's insight:
'Great Companies are the children of Winter'
In conversation with Chinese business leaders, IDEO identified three different mindsets (or creative leadership modes) that companies are adopting in their path to recovery - the Accelerator, the Explorer and the Optimizer.
Which one seems right for you?
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"The primary qualities of conscious leaders make them highly suited to leading in a world that is interconnected, where ripple effects caused by organizations have far-reaching effects on other parts of the world, where collective intelligence is needed to crack some of the bigger problems we face by using our combined resources and innovation, and where leaders are required to be authentic and transparent in their being and actions, because business is conducted in the public eye.."
Doreen Wanja Mutero's insight:
Climate change, disrupted economies, social unrest and other global crises may not be the biggest threat to the world today but rather, as John Renesch a writer on matters of social and organizational change argues, the lack of effective (conscious) leadership. Conscious leadership embraces a growing sense of self-awareness, systems thinking and leading with purpose. This article by Gina Hayden suggests a great starting point for conscious leadership: leaders have to be ready to make a shift in how they think about themselves and how they view the world.
Doreen Mutero
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"Heartfelt leadership is not soft, wear-your-heart-on-your-sleeve emotional behavior. It’s strong and committed leadership. It’s touching hearts, building trust and letting team members know you care about their success. It’s being courageous enough to establish relationships with individual team members so that they feel comfortable expressing their career desires"
Doreen Wanja Mutero's insight:
It takes a level of courage to engage in heartfelt leadership; to ask empowering questions, to listen intently and deeply whilst suspending judgement and to tailor communication to the individual as a unique being. The purpose for heartfelt conversations is to build trust, show value, and develop a sense partnership for the individual. Both the leader and those they lead have a responsibility for developing a WOW experience at work; individuals need to want to give their very best and leaders need to ensure that the workplace is supportive of their efforts.
Doreen Mutero
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In a conversation between Tiffani Bova and Liz Wiseman, leaders can either be diminishers or multipliers. “Multipliers see people more than what they are.” They work to develop people rather than focus on using people to get the job done. They create smarter people, challenge and support them and give them opportunity to be in charge.
Doreen Wanja Mutero's insight:
A good leader sees the potential in the individuals they lead and calls it out, a great leader takes that a notch higher. They see beyond the seen, challenging the individual to go above and beyond their own view of themselves therefore enabling them to tap into the riches of their inherent capabilities and collective experiences to become more than they ever dreamed of. What's encouraging is that every leader has an opportunity to grow from one level to the next!
Doreen Mutero
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This article highlights the importance of immersive learning for leaders from the beginning of their leadership journeys. Dr Kelly Lum argues that through immersive learning programs, leaders are "exposed to a variety of real organizational situation"s and are "given the opportunity to process these contextual conditions and formulate responses with a group of other leaders and a program facilitator". What results is a culture of openness and transparency down to the entire organization.
Doreen Wanja Mutero's insight:
How can we set up leadership development programs as a catalyst for increased transparency and interaction within the organization? Immersive learning. These experiences can be powerful, leveraging problem solving in real situations, great feedback, coaching and collaborative decision making. What's great is that leaders are continuously learning from one another by sharing their experiences and ideas.
Doreen Mutero
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"Systems leaders see their role as catalysing, enabling and supporting widespread action – rather than occupying the spotlight themselves"
David Tsipenyuk's insight:
Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution will be fundamentally different given the critical role large global companies will play in solving unprecedented collective challenges (Climate Change, Migration, Inequality, etc.) that face us all. Given the magnitude of the challenges, requiring business leaders to engage with the broader system by engaging with and bringing the perspectives of academia, government and civil society in finding creative solutions. Thus, it is a matter of time that business leaders will not only be evaluated by their performance inside companies but the positive shifts they make to the entire ecosystem.
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The increasing power of corporations makes business leaders some of the most powerful people in the world today. With this increased power comes an increased responsibility: to lead business for the benefit of all society. As a result, companies need their leaders to live their ethics and values more than ever and embrace Responsible Leadership (RL).
Sally Brownbill's insight:
Emerging World recently launched the 2019 CISL Impact Benchmark Study; research on the long-term impact of CISL programmes. The annual Study creates a benchmark from 1115 survey responses of programme participants from 8 global organisations.
This blog takes a closer look at the Responsible Leadership Impact of these types of Immersive Learning experiences, and shares data driven insights into how the design of programmes can impact learning outcomes.
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Predicting the future is notoriously difficult but scanning the horizon and looking weak signals of what may come to pass is an important skill that helps people and businesses prepare for upcoming change.
Demographic indicators are far more reliable that many other signals and it seems that the pandemic has led to a sharp decline in the birth rate (in many countries at least).
In this article Rita McGrath, professor at Columbia Business School and author of 'Seeing Around Corners' takes a look at the impact this might have socially and economically. While there are challenges, there are also a number of potential positives including perhaps most tantalisingly, the prospect of an increase in worker rights and a change in the prevailing social contract.
Matthew
Emerging World