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Harnessing the power of markets for economic forecasting. - The Backbencher

Harnessing the power of markets for economic forecasting. - The Backbencher | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Daniel Pryor reports on the launch of an innovative way to predict UK inflation and unemployment rates.
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Government faces no-deal backlash from its business experts

Government faces no-deal backlash from its business experts | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Advisers asked to find a solution to the Irish border Brexit problem run into immediate difficulties.

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, July 9, 2019 11:39 AM

Another surprise - the government's attempts to find a technological solution to the Irish border appear to be floundering. 

 

Well, I never! 

Pranjul sarma 's comment, September 24, 2021 7:51 AM
nice
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Bank of England could cut interest rates in event of no-deal Brexit | Business | The Guardian

Bank of England could cut interest rates in event of no-deal Brexit | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Governor Mark Carney says no deal would probably require stimulus for the economy

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, June 27, 2019 2:54 AM

You have to take your hat off to the man. This is why he earns the big bucks.

 

Apparently no-deal Brexit might require interest rate cuts. I suspect that my Year 12 economists have figured this out. Without the £480,000 per year salary or £250,000 per year housing allowance.

Leanne's curator insight, July 1, 2019 11:29 AM
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UK finances forecast to suffer under most forms of Brexit | Politics | The Guardian

UK finances forecast to suffer under most forms of Brexit | Politics | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Cost of leaving EU will also impede new policy initiatives, thinktank’s report says

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, June 25, 2019 3:24 AM

More good news from Brexit - however, you dice and slice it, it seems that Brexit is going to have an adverse effect upon the public finances. Well, I never. Who would have thought it?

 

Of course, it's all going to be offset by the £350m per week we're no longer sending to Brussels. Apart from the fact that the net figure was much, much lower, and we're also likely to have to pay of 'divorce' settlement as part of our contribution to the EU budget.

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Italy risks disciplinary action for violating EU debt rules

Italy risks disciplinary action for violating EU debt rules | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The European Commission recommends that legal action be launched against Italy over its growing debt.

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, June 6, 2019 2:21 AM

Alas, poor Italy - it has fallen foul of the EU Growth and Stability Pact with debt levels of more than 130% of GDP, and not the 60% that the EU require.

 

Worse still, it's current policy choices are seen as to blame for this - with the decision to cut taxes, in the hope that growth will outstrip the growth in debt, thus reducing the % debt, seen as playing a key part in this.

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Warning over 'new eurozone crisis'

Warning over 'new eurozone crisis' | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Dr Lars Feld, one of the German Council of Economic Experts, was one of the first last year to warn of a slowdown in Europe's largest economy.

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, May 20, 2019 3:54 AM

...but the potential for trouble in the Eurozone, with a leading German expert warning that there are underlying factors in Italy and to a lesser extent in other economies that might precipitate a crisis.

Pranjul sarma 's comment, September 24, 2021 7:52 AM
Nice
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Mark Carney is looking unreliable again with misplaced enthusiasm for rate rises | Business | The Guardian

Mark Carney is looking unreliable again with misplaced enthusiasm for rate rises | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The Bank of England governor believes the economy is at risk of overheating but there is no solid base for his prediction

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, May 5, 2019 6:23 AM

Hard not to agree with the first part of the Observer Business leader - is the UK economy really in danger of overheating, as Mark Carney suggests? As I wrote at the end of the week, I'm not convinced.

Pranjul sarma 's comment, September 24, 2021 7:52 AM
wow
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Brexit uncertainty slows economy and raises risk of job losses | Business | The Guardian

Brexit uncertainty slows economy and raises risk of job losses | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Latest Guardian analysis shows companies shutting plants and pausing investment

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 26, 2019 4:16 PM

And there's more...

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Post-Brexit migration rules disastrous, say manufacturers

Post-Brexit migration rules disastrous, say manufacturers | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The UK's main manufacturing body lambasts plans for a minimum salary threshold for skilled migrants.

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 28, 2019 2:21 AM

An influential manufacturing group, Make UK, has criticised the government's proposals to control migration post-Brexit. They argue that the notion of a £30,000 minimum salary threshold is nonsensical and will restrict the ability of British firms to recruit essential workers and have detrimental effects for both actual and potential growth. 

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The City may thrive despite Brexit, but the rest of us won’t | Simon Jenkins | Opinion | The Guardian

The City may thrive despite Brexit, but the rest of us won’t | Simon Jenkins | Opinion | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
For bankers it will be as though Brexit never happened, says the Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 22, 2019 3:12 AM

It's difficult not to agree with Simon Jenkins' assessment of the way in which Brexit is being played out - with the City and farming getting treated in a way that is different to other sectors. 

 

For me, the killer line is the assessment that agriculture accounts for 0.5% of British GDP, and manufacturing nearly 19%. But you'll never guess which sector has been promised an overwhelming level of post-Brexit support.

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UK signs post-Brexit trade deal with Switzerland

UK signs post-Brexit trade deal with Switzerland | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The "continuity agreement" will see the two countries continue to trade as they do now, after Brexit.

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 11, 2019 1:38 PM

Crack open the champagne, that's another trade deal in the bag, this time with Switzerland. The Swiss join Chile, the Faroe Islands and Eastern and Southern Africa as being the only four places to have agreed trade deals with the UK. Not quite the 40 promised by Dr.Fox but getting there.

 

However, these deals are far from radical - seeing the countries continue to trade as they do now - with the Swiss representing "around £32bn of trade...with 15,000 British exporters trading with the country."

 

And I'm afraid I don't believe the rhetoric that "Switzerland is one of the most valuable trading partners that we are seeking continuity for": even the Swiss might be able to see through that.

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How ministers will try to protect UK economy in a no-deal Brexit | Politics | The Guardian

How ministers will try to protect UK economy in a no-deal Brexit | Politics | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Treasury mandarins plan emergency measures designed to avert recession

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 9, 2019 5:41 AM

Economics or Business Management? Either way it's our Brexit contingency plans. I wonder if either Captain Mainwaring or Baldrick were involved in their construction?

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No-deal Brexit: UK exporters risk being locked out of world's harbours | Business | The Guardian

No-deal Brexit: UK exporters risk being locked out of world's harbours | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Goods dispatched in coming days may not arrive until after 29 March deadline

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 7, 2019 3:58 PM

Project Fear!  The Guardian is trying to suggest that UK exporters face being locked out of the world's harbours after Brexit. I will believe it while I see it. I suspect that goods may take more time to clear customs, but I'm not sure I'm with the pessimists on this one. 

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No-deal Brexit 'to leave shelves empty' warn retailers

No-deal Brexit 'to leave shelves empty' warn retailers | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Major retailers prepare to warn MPs a no-deal Brexit will cause major disruption to food supplies.

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, January 28, 2019 7:50 AM

Expect a stampede on the High Street any minute. Leading retailers are going to tell the government that a no-deal Brexit is going to cause major disruption to food supplies.

 

You can't make it up. Principally because you don't have to. Satire, it seems, is dead.

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Could the next euro crisis come from Italy?

Could the next euro crisis come from Italy? | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The governor of the Bank of Italy warns that rising debt and weak growth are causing economic tensions.

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, July 9, 2019 11:32 AM

This story has been a long time in the making: is Italy the next source of a Euro crisis. Italian debt levels are rising and low levels of growth have raised interest rates and caused concerns about whether the country can remain in the Eurozone. 

 

The current level of Italian debt is 130% - well over the levels of debt permitted by the Growth and Stability Pact. Well worth keeping an eye on. 

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How has Brexit vote affected the UK economy? June verdict | Business | The Guardian

How has Brexit vote affected the UK economy? June verdict | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Each month we look at key indicators to see what effect the Brexit process has had on growth, prosperity and trade

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, June 26, 2019 3:12 AM

The June verdict, with reference to specific macroeconomic objectives.

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Brexit: UK firms 'not even close to ready' for no deal

Brexit: UK firms 'not even close to ready' for no deal | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Less than 10% of firms have applied to a HMRC scheme aimed at facilitating UK imports, Newsnight reveals.

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, June 13, 2019 4:25 AM

Apparently, a small minority of British firms are prepared for a no deal Brexit. What a surprise. However, with Boris in charge, I'm sure that everything will turn out all right in the end. Ho ho.

 

As things stand 90% of British firms still haven't registered with HMRC to facilitate imports and exports via the Transitional Simplified Procedures (TSP)

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European Election 2019: UK results in maps and charts

European Election 2019: UK results in maps and charts | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Find results for your area and follow the others as they come in.
Bruce Fellowes's insight:

What will this mean for the UK? Only 4 seats in Wales (2 for Brexit Party, 1 for Plaid Cymru and 1 for Labour). 

Pranjul sarma 's comment, September 24, 2021 7:52 AM
Nice
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Bank of England warns investment will suffer under no-deal Brexit | Business | The Guardian

Bank of England warns investment will suffer under no-deal Brexit | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Ben Broadbent says projects postponed amid political uncertainty will be cancelled

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, May 21, 2019 3:29 AM

That's why they earn the big bucks!

 

The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England considers the big issues. Next week, he'll be dealing with the toilet habits of the ursine community and the faith of successive pontiffs.

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Bank of England warns of interest rate rise over next three years | Business | The Guardian

Bank of England warns of interest rate rise over next three years | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
A rise in growth above 1.5% in 2020 and 2021 would be enough for the economy to begin overheating

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, May 3, 2019 5:14 AM

One of the consequences of the announcement of the Monetary Policy Committee's interest rate decision and the publication of the Inflation Report was that the Bank revealed that there might have to be more frequent interest rate rises in the coming years.

 

The thing I found fascinating about this was the concern that growth above 1.5% was synonymous with 'overheating'. When I started teaching more than 25 years ago, this would have seemed to be below the trend rate of growth. Is that no longer the case today, and what are the macroeconomic consequences of this? 

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Experts debate the Brexit outlook: 'Stand by for gale-force winds' | Business | The Guardian

Experts debate the Brexit outlook: 'Stand by for gale-force winds' | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Two former members of Bank of England’s rate-setting committee assess the economic future

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 26, 2019 4:21 PM

Punch and Judy - or Sentance and Blanchflower - look at the current state of play. The latter is in particularly pessimistic form: "stand by for gale-force winds approaching". Wot larks!

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No-deal Brexit risks 'full-blown economic crisis'

No-deal Brexit risks 'full-blown economic crisis' | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The aerospace trade body joins other business groups in warning over continuing Brexit uncertainty.

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 25, 2019 10:52 AM

More support for Brexit - not!

 

This time the aerospace sector lets us know what it thinks about the prospects for Brexit. And doesn't mince its words.

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Avoiding a no-deal crash-out won’t stop Brexit wrecking our economy | Peter Mandelson | Opinion | The Guardian

Avoiding a no-deal crash-out won’t stop Brexit wrecking our economy | Peter Mandelson | Opinion | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
This economic drain will continue until business gets some clarity, says former EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 21, 2019 4:21 AM

Mandy on Brexit - money for old rope?

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Brexit: Netherlands talking to 250 firms about leaving UK | Politics | The Guardian

Brexit: Netherlands talking to 250 firms about leaving UK | Politics | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Dutch government says it has already gained 1,900 jobs from Britain in bid for Brexit spoils

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 10, 2019 3:38 AM

Britain's loss is the Netherlands gain - this article highlights the fact that a number of companies have already moved their European HQs from Britain to the Netherlands, and apparently another 250 are also contemplating making the move.

 

It brings new post-Brexit meaning to the phrase 'going Dutch'.

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‘Buy your wine now’: the Bordeaux vineyards bottling before Brexit | Politics | The Guardian

‘Buy your wine now’: the Bordeaux vineyards bottling before Brexit | Politics | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Nobody knows if wine will still flow freely across the Channel if the UK crashes out without a deal

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, February 9, 2019 5:36 AM

A very worrying story - Brexit could have adverse implications for the wine industry - and vineyards have already brought forward bottling to ensure that there's enough wine stockpiled in the UK in the event of no-deal.

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Barclays shifts billions of pounds to Dublin because of Brexit

Barclays shifts billions of pounds to Dublin because of Brexit | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The High Street bank "cannot wait any longer" to shift business to Dublin because of Brexit.

Via Graham Watson
Graham Watson's curator insight, January 30, 2019 1:54 PM

Nothing for you to see here, officer, according to Barclays. But it's an oligopolistic market, and where one goes, others usually follow. 

 

#Brexit