Daniel Pryor reports on the launch of an innovative way to predict UK inflation and unemployment rates.
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Graham Watson's curator insight,
July 9, 2019 11:39 AM
Another surprise - the government's attempts to find a technological solution to the Irish border appear to be floundering.
Well, I never!
Graham Watson's curator insight,
June 27, 2019 2:54 AM
You have to take your hat off to the man. This is why he earns the big bucks.
Apparently no-deal Brexit might require interest rate cuts. I suspect that my Year 12 economists have figured this out. Without the £480,000 per year salary or £250,000 per year housing allowance.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
June 25, 2019 3:24 AM
More good news from Brexit - however, you dice and slice it, it seems that Brexit is going to have an adverse effect upon the public finances. Well, I never. Who would have thought it?
Of course, it's all going to be offset by the £350m per week we're no longer sending to Brussels. Apart from the fact that the net figure was much, much lower, and we're also likely to have to pay of 'divorce' settlement as part of our contribution to the EU budget.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
June 6, 2019 2:21 AM
Alas, poor Italy - it has fallen foul of the EU Growth and Stability Pact with debt levels of more than 130% of GDP, and not the 60% that the EU require.
Worse still, it's current policy choices are seen as to blame for this - with the decision to cut taxes, in the hope that growth will outstrip the growth in debt, thus reducing the % debt, seen as playing a key part in this.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
May 20, 2019 3:54 AM
...but the potential for trouble in the Eurozone, with a leading German expert warning that there are underlying factors in Italy and to a lesser extent in other economies that might precipitate a crisis.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
May 5, 2019 6:23 AM
Hard not to agree with the first part of the Observer Business leader - is the UK economy really in danger of overheating, as Mark Carney suggests? As I wrote at the end of the week, I'm not convinced.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
February 28, 2019 2:21 AM
An influential manufacturing group, Make UK, has criticised the government's proposals to control migration post-Brexit. They argue that the notion of a £30,000 minimum salary threshold is nonsensical and will restrict the ability of British firms to recruit essential workers and have detrimental effects for both actual and potential growth.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
February 22, 2019 3:12 AM
It's difficult not to agree with Simon Jenkins' assessment of the way in which Brexit is being played out - with the City and farming getting treated in a way that is different to other sectors.
For me, the killer line is the assessment that agriculture accounts for 0.5% of British GDP, and manufacturing nearly 19%. But you'll never guess which sector has been promised an overwhelming level of post-Brexit support.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
February 11, 2019 1:38 PM
Crack open the champagne, that's another trade deal in the bag, this time with Switzerland. The Swiss join Chile, the Faroe Islands and Eastern and Southern Africa as being the only four places to have agreed trade deals with the UK. Not quite the 40 promised by Dr.Fox but getting there.
However, these deals are far from radical - seeing the countries continue to trade as they do now - with the Swiss representing "around £32bn of trade...with 15,000 British exporters trading with the country."
And I'm afraid I don't believe the rhetoric that "Switzerland is one of the most valuable trading partners that we are seeking continuity for": even the Swiss might be able to see through that.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
February 9, 2019 5:41 AM
Economics or Business Management? Either way it's our Brexit contingency plans. I wonder if either Captain Mainwaring or Baldrick were involved in their construction?
Graham Watson's curator insight,
February 7, 2019 3:58 PM
Project Fear! The Guardian is trying to suggest that UK exporters face being locked out of the world's harbours after Brexit. I will believe it while I see it. I suspect that goods may take more time to clear customs, but I'm not sure I'm with the pessimists on this one.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
January 28, 2019 7:50 AM
Expect a stampede on the High Street any minute. Leading retailers are going to tell the government that a no-deal Brexit is going to cause major disruption to food supplies.
You can't make it up. Principally because you don't have to. Satire, it seems, is dead. |
Graham Watson's curator insight,
July 9, 2019 11:32 AM
This story has been a long time in the making: is Italy the next source of a Euro crisis. Italian debt levels are rising and low levels of growth have raised interest rates and caused concerns about whether the country can remain in the Eurozone.
The current level of Italian debt is 130% - well over the levels of debt permitted by the Growth and Stability Pact. Well worth keeping an eye on.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
June 26, 2019 3:12 AM
The June verdict, with reference to specific macroeconomic objectives.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
June 13, 2019 4:25 AM
Apparently, a small minority of British firms are prepared for a no deal Brexit. What a surprise. However, with Boris in charge, I'm sure that everything will turn out all right in the end. Ho ho.
As things stand 90% of British firms still haven't registered with HMRC to facilitate imports and exports via the Transitional Simplified Procedures (TSP)
Graham Watson's curator insight,
May 21, 2019 3:29 AM
That's why they earn the big bucks!
The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England considers the big issues. Next week, he'll be dealing with the toilet habits of the ursine community and the faith of successive pontiffs.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
May 3, 2019 5:14 AM
One of the consequences of the announcement of the Monetary Policy Committee's interest rate decision and the publication of the Inflation Report was that the Bank revealed that there might have to be more frequent interest rate rises in the coming years.
The thing I found fascinating about this was the concern that growth above 1.5% was synonymous with 'overheating'. When I started teaching more than 25 years ago, this would have seemed to be below the trend rate of growth. Is that no longer the case today, and what are the macroeconomic consequences of this?
Graham Watson's curator insight,
February 26, 2019 4:21 PM
Punch and Judy - or Sentance and Blanchflower - look at the current state of play. The latter is in particularly pessimistic form: "stand by for gale-force winds approaching". Wot larks!
Graham Watson's curator insight,
February 25, 2019 10:52 AM
More support for Brexit - not!
This time the aerospace sector lets us know what it thinks about the prospects for Brexit. And doesn't mince its words.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
February 10, 2019 3:38 AM
Britain's loss is the Netherlands gain - this article highlights the fact that a number of companies have already moved their European HQs from Britain to the Netherlands, and apparently another 250 are also contemplating making the move.
It brings new post-Brexit meaning to the phrase 'going Dutch'.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
February 9, 2019 5:36 AM
A very worrying story - Brexit could have adverse implications for the wine industry - and vineyards have already brought forward bottling to ensure that there's enough wine stockpiled in the UK in the event of no-deal.
Graham Watson's curator insight,
January 30, 2019 1:54 PM
Nothing for you to see here, officer, according to Barclays. But it's an oligopolistic market, and where one goes, others usually follow.
#Brexit |