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Agency Theory: Because what use is data, if it doesn't lead to actions?

Agency Theory: Because what use is data, if it doesn't lead to actions? | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

Agency Theory: The existence of massive data sets in many arenas is creating new challenges. Most people know about the issue of spurious correlations that do not represent true cause-and-effect. However a second challenge is more insidious and costly: this is the expense – which can run into the billions of dollars – of managing data that does not lead to actionable and valuable outcomes for an organization. For this reason, organizations that can identify the 20% of data that represents 80% of value realize a substantial advantage.


In this talk, I introduce Agency Theory, which is a mathematical framework for analyzing decision models to solve this problem. Agency theory borrows key ideas from machine learning, to solve a different purpose: rather than finding a set of parameters that best fits a data set, the objective is to find a set of decisions that leads to the most favorable set of outcomes, along with the data that is most valuable in supporting those decisions.

Lorien Pratts insight:

Please join my Quantellia cofounder Mark Zangari in Seattle on May 1.  This is a landmark talk.  I'll be there too.

James Dolan's curator insight, March 8, 2015 12:30 PM

this is a more general problem affecting how we translate clinical research into practice and organize health systems that is too rarely discussed.

Decision Intelligence News
AI/BI/CI/DI: Decision intelligence (DI) solves the world's most complex problems.   It connects human decision makers to technologies like machine learning, AI, deep learning, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_Intelligence. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaE, http://www.lorienpratt.com, and the Decision Intelligence group: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.   Also, my company offers DI and machine learning consulting services.  See http://bit.ly/1X8O2zF to learn more.  Don't miss the latest DI news!  Click here to sign up: http://bit.ly/29wYd1u.
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In her Institute for the Future talk broadcast on national television, Dr. Lorien Pratt shows her prototype immersive visualization DI tool and offers new insights on Decision Intelligence.

In her Institute for the Future talk broadcast on national television, Dr. Lorien Pratt shows her prototype immersive visualization DI tool and offers new insights on Decision Intelligence. | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

You have a new superpower. Your choices have ripple effects throughout the world, and you have no idea what those impacts will be. Part of the future of DI is to understand that there are systematic patterns to those impacts.  

 

Dr. Pratt demos an immersive visualization tool that lets us see these patterns and interactions, make changes, and see immediately how these changes lead to different outcomes.  

 

I think there are a lot of people who feel overwhelmed by information. The executives I talk with say this in particular, “I don’t want to talk with these quants; I can’t understand a word that they say.” If they have interfaces like this [visualization tool], they will engage with the evidence, the data, and the AI I think that the biggest initial impact will be in our sense of agency, that we will balance out the inequity that comes when technologists dominateand send us things and make us click things and make us do things, and we start to use this for our own needs ….[greater] equalityWe democratized the computer, didn’t we? Let’s democratize AI [other] complex [technologies, too]. 

Lorien Pratts insight:

Please enjoy this talk that I gave last January at the Institute for the Future. I believe it is more relevant today than ever.

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Kasia Smith: Four Simple Steps to Help Your Team Make Better Decisions

Kasia Smith: Four Simple Steps to Help Your Team Make Better Decisions | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

How can we leverage our understanding of human physiology, neuroscience, and technology to guide and improve the decision making process for organizations and teams?

Lorien Pratts insight:

Great article by Kasia Smith about how we can get better at decision making. Super important because decisions about invisible things: covid-19, climate, inequality, and more - will arguably determine the fate of the human race.

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Decision Intelligence In The Time Of COVID-19

Decision Intelligence In The Time Of COVID-19 | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

In my situation, I believe that DI could have assisted me with the best action to take to achieve my ultimate goal, which is to drive engineering pride across SAP. …

 

While we may be facing the biggest threat of our lifetime, the good news is that Decision Intelligence (DI) can leverage AI as well as epidemiological, social, and other knowledge sources to help. Including beautiful visualizations, DI can be used by policymakers, media, business leaders and individuals, to make and communicate the impact of their decisions in a complex world.

Lorien Pratts insight:

It is time for the Covid-19 era to become the decision intelligence era. Over the past months we have seen thousands of coronavirus decisions play out around the world. Some have saved lives and prevented suffering. Others have cost lives and created misery. We are still early days in this pandemic. We can leverage DI and DI tools to improve our future decisions. Even modest improvements in the quality of decisions can prevent huge amounts of death and suffering.

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ComputerAmerica: Quantellia, Decision Intelligence

The human-computer partnership is the future. Decision Intelligence (DI) gives us a formal way to integrate AI into existing decision making. Just having a structured way of thinking through complex decisions can really move the needle, and especially on big problems, even five percent can save lives or save money.

Lorien Pratts insight:

DI is inter-disciplinary. As I have talked to decision makers in governments and companies worldwide, I have learned that where the innovation has to occur is in the interstitial spaces between disciplines. It’s not just where exciting developments can be built, it’s where they’re desperate for solutions.

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Link is a finalist for the prestigious 2020 PROSE award in Business, Management and Finance

Link is a finalist for the prestigious 2020 PROSE award in Business, Management and Finance | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

Since 1976, the Association of American Publishers’ awards for Professional and Scholarly Excellence (PROSE Awards) have recognized publishers who produce books, journals, and digital products of extraordinary merit that make a significant contribution to a field of study in the humanities, biological and physical sciences, reference and social sciences.

Lorien Pratts insight:

Dr. Pratt’s book Link: How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World points out that most businesses review basic numbers, then make tactical and strategic decisions.  Most of the time, the review is based on historical or current numbers, and the task of thinking about how decisions will interact with the future is left as an exercise that happens inside the decision makers’ heads.  We can do much better.   

 

If we work backwards from business outcomes using a decision intelligence approach, we not only can integrate data, AI, and human expertise at multiple points in the decision process, we create a vehicle for exploring multiple futures and bringing forward simulation into the boardroom. 

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How decision intelligence can use data to help create a better world

How decision intelligence can use data to help create a better world | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

You advocate using decision intelligence to take AI to the “next level” to help improve conditions in the world. Can you provide some examples of what you envision here? 

 

  • Instead of just using ML to identify where a climate-change-driven flood is likely to impact a country, use DI to choose between several prevention / remediation measures to minimize the cost of property and lives lost. 
  • Instead of just using ML to analyze the movement of asteroids, surround the ML model with a DI model to decide what to do to deflect one that is aiming for Earth (this is the nasa.ai's "deflector selector").
Lorien Pratts insight:

DI is gaining momentum. In September Gartner told us that DI is “on the rise.” Now in this article Information Management explains to a broad audience of IT leaders how DI “bridges the gap from the data/AI stack to end users. 

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BCA strikes remarketing deal with Group 1 Automotive | Fleet Industry News

BCA strikes remarketing deal with Group 1 Automotive | Fleet Industry News | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

The past 12 months have seen sustained investment in decision intelligence services and new digital technology, to make it easier than ever to do business with BCA. 

 

It continues to see ‘exceptional’ usage of the BCA Buyer app, designed to make it easier for customers to locate and never miss the vehicles that they’re interested in. 

Lorien Pratts insight:

Decision intelligence is starting to provide business benefits to real world enterprises. DBCA Group, Europe’s leading vehicle remarketing company, is leveraging DI and AI to build partnerships and improve customer service.

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Decision Intelligence In HR: What is it and How to use it?

Decision Intelligence In HR: What is it and How to use it? | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

Why does HR Need Decision Intelligence? 

 

HR is a dynamic and strategic function in today’s business landscape. The decisions in HR significantly influence the future of business organizations, implying the importance of thoughtful decision-making. With the right support from decision intelligence, HR decisions can increase operational efficiencies for organizations on multiple levels. 

Lorien Pratts insight:

If there’s any place in the enterprise where AI needs “human in the loop” and decisions must include human factors it’s HR. Decision Intelligence integrates AI into a decision framework that includes the soft factorsthose aspects of a decision-making process that are hard to measure and/or relate to, psychological factors like morale, empathy, customer satisfaction, or happiness. Soft factors are often the most influential on an organization’s success yet are systematically ignored.

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Council Post: New To Business Development? 10 Hot Industries To Join Right Now

Council Post: New To Business Development? 10 Hot Industries To Join Right Now | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

"New graduates in the business development field have a wealth of career paths available to them. Some industries, like tech, are always booming, and job seekers may naturally gravitate toward those areas. However, there are plenty of other industries that can provide incredible work opportunities and growth potential for recent grads.

 

"We asked members of Forbes Business Development Council about the hottest industries for new business development professionals to explore right now."

Lorien Pratts insight:

Looking for a challenging and fulfilling career path? We at Quantellia are excited to see Forbes including Decision Intelligence in their assessment of what they refer to as "incredible work opportunities and growth potential for recent grads." We couldn't agree more. We believe we are leading the field in this discipline and look forward to it becoming truly mainstream and ubiquitous as its power to help us make good decisions is revealed.

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The next AI winter is coming, and that’s great – productOps –

The next AI winter is coming, and that’s great – productOps – | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

 

". . . [B]uilding a true AI is likely to require investing years of work into machines that won’t solve a single business problem. Search engines and image recognizers make a lot of money but don’t think like people. Any true AI is likely to spend years stumbling around and making mistakes before it does anything useful, just like we do. Remember, training a human intelligence (the best kind we know about) takes about twenty years per installation, and that’s with millions of years of evolutionary advantage baked in. This means that for the machine learning problems that really count, money is likely to stay tight.

 

"So, you might wonder, if all this is true, why get excited about the upcoming AI winter? Simple. This is when all that expertise we’ve built up during the current boom will start filtering out into other fields. The dirty secret of the current AI boom is that not everyone is trying to build a self-driving car. In fact, for most businesses, the problems they need to solve are far more pragmatic. Often, companies need to make sense of the data they’re already sitting on and those datasets are usually too small and too messy for deep learning to be much use. Or they need to figure out how to take dodgy intermittent data from new sources like IoT sensors and make it reliable."

Lorien Pratts insight:

Rather than being a boom and bust cycle, the development of AI is more of a bloom and spread cycle, with the skills and talent built up in the field during AI growth being spread out into other fields where it can become part of a new era of understanding, as well as that of a better understanding of how to solve our most vexing social and business problems.

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The future of data science and AI (and DI) brings women back into the tech workforce

"Women are going to lead this
next phase just like they led the early development of
software engineering"
Lorien Pratts insight:

Thank you to #wids2019, @sap, and our #diversity allies for the opportunity to pay it forward to the next generation of brilliant woman data scientists.

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Responsible AI/DI Ecosystem website redesign, including videos from the 2018 Summit

Responsible AI/DI Ecosystem website redesign, including videos from the 2018 Summit | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

"Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Decision Intelligence (DI) are powerful technologies with potential for both great good and great harm. Responsible AI/DI (RAIDI) Ecosystem members consist of stakeholders and thought leaders working together to maximize the positive impact of these technologies worldwide.

 

Our first RAIDI Summit was held in September 2018. The second will be in September 2019 in Washington DC.

 

Please join us in using these revolutionary technologies for the common good."

Lorien Pratts insight:

Please join me in congratulating the Responsible AI / DI ecosystem team for their new web design, including videos from the 2018 Responsible AI/DI Summit.

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Steve Brant at the United Nations: Has Science Made Fighting Wars Obsolete? (Full Question)

I asked how we can start a cultural conversation re: Has Scientific Advancement Made Fighting Wars Obsolete? This is my full question at the UNA-USA'
Lorien Pratts insight:
Cultural shift ideas, inspired by Buckminster Fuller, from DI ecosystem member Steve Brant
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Latest Big Data and Analytics Trends to Consider in 2021

Latest Big Data and Analytics Trends to Consider in 2021 | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it
It is expected that many organizations will have analysts practicing decision intelligence including decision modeling in the future.
Lorien Pratts insight:

We were right!

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DI leads the way to industrialized AI

DI leads the way to industrialized AI | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

The industrialization of AI platforms enables the reusability, scalability and safety of AI, which accelerates its adoption and growth. This industrialization aims at getting new adopters of AI on par with early adopters. 

 

According to a recent Gartner survey, the C-suite is steering AI projects, with nearly 30% of projects directed by CEOs. Having the C-suite in the driver’s seat accelerates AI adoption and investment in AI solutions.

 

For example, decision intelligence indicates that companies want to use AI to make better decisions faster, such as selecting best treatment options for patients or accelerating discovery and prevention of anomalies and vulnerabilities.

Lorien Pratts insight:

It’s exiting to see DI as a key player in a Gartner megatrend.

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‘Tell me what to do! Please!’: Even experts struggle with coronavirus unknowns

‘Tell me what to do! Please!’: Even experts struggle with coronavirus unknowns | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

Brian Nosek, a University of Virginia psychology professor who has devoted his career to making scientific data more reliable and trustworthy, is frustrated. Like everyone else, he's trying to understand the pandemic, particularly in his own community of Charlottesville, and in California, where he has family.

 

So he wonders: Where is the virus spreading? Where is it suppressed? Where are people social distancing as they should, and where are they not? Where will he and his family be safe?

 

In this pandemic, we're swimming in statistics, trends, models, projections, infection rates, death tolls. Nosek has professional expertise in interpreting data, but even he is struggling to make sense of the numbers.

 

“What's crazy is, we're three months in, and we're still not able to calibrate our risk management. It's a mess,” said Nosek, who runs the Center for Open Science, which advocates for transparency in research. “Tell me what to do! Please!”

Lorien Pratts insight:

Decision Intelligence (DI) lets us decide what to do. DI manages data overload and lets us focus on a specific decision. Covid-19 safety decisions do not require holding all the global, aggregated statistics and projections in your head. Most critical decisions address risks at point in time for a specific facility or activity; they require not mountains of data, but understanding how, in this time and place, actions lead to outcomes.  As individuals, business owners, executives, or government officials, once we look at the causal links in a coronavirus decision, we can identify the subset of data that is actually relevant. And we can build AI and other models to render that data understandable and actionable and to let us update our decisions as the pandemic changes over time. DI gives us tools and a process to answer the Covid-19 question, “what should I do?” For an example of applying DI to covid-19 decision-making, look here.

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Congratulations to Decision Intelligence Tokyo. Omedetou gozaimasu!

Congratulations to Decision Intelligence Tokyo. Omedetou gozaimasu! | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

Decision Intelligence Tokyo (DIT) is a non-profit organization in Japan. DIT is dedicated to making actionable artificial intelligence (AI) for the prosperity of commons. DIT connects experts (AI, ML, data scientists, and engineers)—for the development of next-generation actionable AI—which coordinates human decision-makers with data, models, and others. Actionable future AI supports humans to make responsible decisions.

Lorien Pratts insight:

One of the indicators that a discipline is moving up the Gartner Hype Cycle is that it generates books, videos, user groups, and conferences. The new Tokyo DI user group joins Link, videos by Lorien Pratt and Cassie Kozyrkov, the LinkedIn Applied Decision Intelligence group, and  the Responsible AI/DI Summit & Ecosystem (RAIDI) as evidence of DI’s growing importance

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Link: How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World on national television this Sunday

Link: How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World on national television this Sunday | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

Mark your calendars for Dr. Lorien Pratt’s Institute for the Future talk (presented last week) being broadcast on C-SPAN2 Sunday, February 9 at 8pm PT.

 

Dr. Pratt introduces her book Link (www.linkthebook.com) which describes the new field of Decision Intelligence (DI). Many people think that DI is the next generation of AI, but it also goes considerably beyond that context. She explains how DI is the mechanism by which humans will work hand-in-hand with technology to solve a new class of the most complex problems we face, like climate change and inequality. Pratt shows how decisions can be supported by AI, understood more effectively, and how the use of social messages fits into effective decision making. The broadcast consists of 1/2 Pratt's  presentation and the second half hour of Q&A hosted by Joy Mountford, of Ford’s Research Innovation Center, Palo Alto (RICPA) and the NextNow network.  During the Q&A, questions from a senior technologist audience, many of whom are also involved in DI-related initiatives, create a fascinating interchange.

 

Joe Boutte's curator insight, February 7, 2020 4:41 PM

Thanks @LorienPratt.  Looing forward to your book!  Congratulations!

 
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Why in the world haven't we been doing DI all along?

Why in the world haven't we been doing DI all along? | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

The complex, adaptive system…can’t be understood by reducing it to smaller parts, it must be viewed holistically. 

Lorien Pratts insight:

This is the Absolute Best Introduction to the reason that we've been ignoring causation and decision intelligence principles for Millenia!!! And it's in comic book form.  ESSENTIAL READING FOR DI :-)

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Periculum Labs

Periculum Labs | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

The Power of Decision Intelligence  

 

Finally, an AI platform that takes decision making to a completely new level  

 

Periculum Labs has pioneered advanced artificial intelligence technologies which enable organizations to optimize complex and high-risk decision-making. Our proprietary AI platform injects real-time intelligence into decisions – at scale. Autonomous transportation organizations can increase operational capacity, safely and sustainably. 

Lorien Pratts insight:

Periculum Labs is an exciting company leveraging DI to take AI to the next level.

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What's New In Gartner's Hype Cycle For AI, 2019

What's New In Gartner's Hype Cycle For AI, 2019 | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

Gartner considers the following AI technologies to be on the rise and part of the Innovation Trigger phase of the AI Hype Cycle. AI Marketplaces, Reinforcement Learning, Decision Intelligence, AI Cloud Services, Data Labeling, and Annotation Services, and Knowledge Graphs are now showing signs of potential technology breakthroughs as evidence by early proof-of-concept stories. Technologies in the Innovation Trigger phase of the Hype Cycle often lack usable, scalable products with commercial viability not yet proven.

Lorien Pratts insight:

One way to view DI is as a technology that bridges the gap between Artificial Intelligence theory and practical enterprise AI applications. DI uses AI, data, human expertise, and other technologies to support organizations as they reason through complex cause-and-effect chains from policies and actions to business outcomes.  DI connects AI and ML to ROI, KPIs, and business decisions.

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Decision Intelligence Is the Near Future of Decision Making: A Gartner Trend Insight Report

Decision Intelligence Is the Near Future of Decision Making: A Gartner Trend Insight Report | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it
Making ever-faster decisions leveraging a maelstrom of data in ecosystems that are in constant motion, requires an assembly of increasingly complex techniques. Data and analytics leaders should use decision intelligence as a practical discipline framing a wide range of decision-making techniques.
Lorien Pratts insight:

Gartner makes it clear Decision Intelligence will inform our decisions for some time to come.

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Artificial → Decision Intelligence – Data Science Student Society @ UC San Diego –

"AI, BI, CI. Artificial Intelligence, Business Intelligence, Collaborative/Collective Intelligence. What’s next? As an AI/DI intern at Quantellia this past summer, I have learned that Decision Intelligence (DI) spans all of the above, and seeks to crystallize a new field of responsible use of AI systems.

 

"But what is Decision Intelligence?

 

"Throughout my experiences contributing to different projects and interviewing Lorien Pratt, Quantellia’s Co-founder and Chief Scientist, I have come to understand that DI, put simply, helps people make better decisions, by bridging AI and ML with process methodology, visual mapping, and design thinking."

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Risk Roundup Webcast: Algorithmic Decision Making

Risk Roundup Webcast: Algorithmic Decision Making | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

"Our whole infrastructure needs to be tuned up with security and risk management in mind.  Fortunately I think AI will help with that...we need a human/AI cooperation / collaboration...the challenges of data [will only increase]...you need the compute infrastructure that can handle all of that data...data becomes part of the value and the currency that a company or a society has that helps enable it to make better decisions but it becomes a burden in and of itself."

Lorien Pratts insight:

Steve talks about how AI supports decision making, with a focus on provable algorithms and the necessity of handling vast amounts of data.

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Linear versus nonlinear thinking in recent events

In this short video, Kedge's Frank Spencer talks about the need to adopt a new mental model if we are going to navigate the future.

Lorien Pratts insight:

We must shift our mindsets from reduction to synthesis, from linear to nonlinear thinking, and more. Frank Spencer reflects on recent events which highlight this challenge.

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