Decision Intelligence News
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Decision Intelligence News
AI/BI/CI/DI: Decision intelligence (DI) solves the world's most complex problems by connecting actions to outcomes.  It connects collaborating human decision makers to knowledge and also to technologies like machine learning, AI, deep learning, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. See For an overview, see the webinar at,, and the Decision Intelligence group:   Also, my company offers DI and machine learning consulting services.  See to learn more.  Don't miss the latest DI news! Sign up at
Curated by Lorien Pratt
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Scooped by Lorien Pratt
May 27, 2022 1:06 PM!

Decision Fatigue and the Availability Heuristic

Decision Fatigue and the Availability Heuristic | Decision Intelligence News |

"Making decisions about risk and uncertainty is hard. For instance, trying to think through the probability of catching a potentially deadly virus while going to an indoor movie theater is difficult. So people tend to think in terms of binaries — 'this is safe' or 'this is unsafe' — because it’s easier.


The problem is that answering easier questions instead of trickier ones leaves you vulnerable to cognitive biases, or errors in thought that affect your decision-making.


One of the most prevalent of these biases is the availability heuristic. That’s what psychologists call the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily it comes to mind. How much a certain event is covered in the media, or whether you’ve seen instances of it recently in your life, can sway your estimate."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This article points out the risk of making decisions based on our cognitive biases. Decision intelligence gives us a methodology for identifying these biases and basing our decisions on actual information. For example, rather than basing our decision on the availability heuristic, we could base our Covid-19 decisions on information that gives us actual probabilities of being infected.

BurtPeterson's comment, July 25, 2022 6:17 AM
zoulder houd's curator insight, October 31, 2022 2:34 AM

zoulder houd's curator insight, October 31, 2022 2:40 AM

Scooped by Lorien Pratt
June 9, 2020 10:46 AM!

‘Tell me what to do! Please!’: Even experts struggle with coronavirus unknowns

‘Tell me what to do! Please!’: Even experts struggle with coronavirus unknowns | Decision Intelligence News |

Brian Nosek, a University of Virginia psychology professor who has devoted his career to making scientific data more reliable and trustworthy, is frustrated. Like everyone else, he's trying to understand the pandemic, particularly in his own community of Charlottesville, and in California, where he has family.


So he wonders: Where is the virus spreading? Where is it suppressed? Where are people social distancing as they should, and where are they not? Where will he and his family be safe?


In this pandemic, we're swimming in statistics, trends, models, projections, infection rates, death tolls. Nosek has professional expertise in interpreting data, but even he is struggling to make sense of the numbers.


“What's crazy is, we're three months in, and we're still not able to calibrate our risk management. It's a mess,” said Nosek, who runs the Center for Open Science, which advocates for transparency in research. “Tell me what to do! Please!”

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Decision Intelligence (DI) lets us decide what to do. DI manages data overload and lets us focus on a specific decision. Covid-19 safety decisions do not require holding all the global, aggregated statistics and projections in your head. Most critical decisions address risks at point in time for a specific facility or activity; they require not mountains of data, but understanding how, in this time and place, actions lead to outcomes.  As individuals, business owners, executives, or government officials, once we look at the causal links in a coronavirus decision, we can identify the subset of data that is actually relevant. And we can build AI and other models to render that data understandable and actionable and to let us update our decisions as the pandemic changes over time. DI gives us tools and a process to answer the Covid-19 question, “what should I do?” For an example of applying DI to covid-19 decision-making, look here.

Scooped by Lorien Pratt
June 12, 2020 11:51 AM!

Decision Intelligence In The Time Of COVID-19

Decision Intelligence In The Time Of COVID-19 | Decision Intelligence News |

In my situation, I believe that DI could have assisted me with the best action to take to achieve my ultimate goal, which is to drive engineering pride across SAP. …


While we may be facing the biggest threat of our lifetime, the good news is that Decision Intelligence (DI) can leverage AI as well as epidemiological, social, and other knowledge sources to help. Including beautiful visualizations, DI can be used by policymakers, media, business leaders and individuals, to make and communicate the impact of their decisions in a complex world.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

It is time for the Covid-19 era to become the decision intelligence era. Over the past months we have seen thousands of coronavirus decisions play out around the world. Some have saved lives and prevented suffering. Others have cost lives and created misery. We are still early days in this pandemic. We can leverage DI and DI tools to improve our future decisions. Even modest improvements in the quality of decisions can prevent huge amounts of death and suffering.