Decision Intelligence News
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Decision Intelligence News
AI/BI/CI/DI: Decision intelligence (DI) solves the world's most complex problems by connecting actions to outcomes.  It connects collaborating human decision makers to knowledge and also to technologies like machine learning, AI, deep learning, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_Intelligence. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaE, http://www.lorienpratt.com, and the Decision Intelligence group: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.   Also, my company offers DI and machine learning consulting services.  See http://bit.ly/1X8O2zF to learn more.  Don't miss the latest DI news! Sign up at subscribe.decisionintelligencenews.com.
Curated by Lorien Pratt
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Scooped by Lorien Pratt
November 15, 2022 12:39 PM
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Data-driven decision making will fail – and here is why

Data-driven decision making will fail – and here is why | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

"In March 2020, the NHS needed to make life-or-death decisions on the back of understanding whether curves were trending up or down. For the first time ever, they connected data flows from across the entire system.

That is a potentially overwhelming amount of data – but, crucially, they weren’t paralysed by this sudden torrent... Why was that?

Well, working alongside the NHS, we applied approaches from a nascent field called decision intelligence. We used this data to build the understanding the NHS needed to make confident decisions about which hospital wards to open or close, and which resources to send where.

Rather than just showing data on current levels of patient demand, we could also show demand for tomorrow or next month, the reasons why demand was changing, how that affected resources such as beds or ventilators, and what actions they could take.

Rather than making decisions on data alone, the NHS made them on an understanding of how and why events were unfolding. The collective results have been widely credited with saving thousands of lives."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

As Marc Warner points out, DI lets us create models, develop understanding about the behavior of these models, and use them to create the "data from the future" we need to make better decisions. 

Aman shastry's comment, January 17, 6:47 AM
great article, its absolutely true
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December 22, 2021 5:12 PM
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Animals make decisions as binary choices

Animals make decisions as binary choices | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

"...the brain spontaneously breaks down decisions among multiple options to a series of two-choice decisions until only one option -- the one ultimately selected -- remains. This was found to result in animals exhibiting a series of abrupt changes in direction, each associated with the exclusion of one of the remaining options....


The team used immersive virtual reality to test their theoretical predictions in flying, walking, and swimming animals -- the fruit fly, desert locust, and zebrafish, respectively.... All species were found to exhibit exactly the same bifurcations as had been predicted....

 

'It is often thought that animals first decide where to go and then they move to the target,' says Sridhar. 'But our findings show that the interplay between movement and the changing neural representation of options considerably impacts how decisions are made. What is so exciting about these findings is that this response yields extremely effective decision-making in complex and diverse ecological contexts.'"

Lorien Pratt's insight:
Although not yet tested on humans, these findings suggest how little we can actually hold in our heads during decision making. The solution is to use at least simple tools - like diagrams of decisions -  when faced with complex decisions.
Scooped by Lorien Pratt
November 15, 2022 12:26 PM
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Software to Help Users Think

Software to Help Users Think | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it

"So here’s a question for you: does the software system you’re building help people to 'do', or to think, or both? 

And if it helps them to think, then do you understand how they think today? Do you know what’s natural to them? Are you asking them to learn to think in an entirely different way, just to use your system? Or have you learned – like the great 'doing' software designers of the last century – that it’s your job to start with the user, to meet them where they’re at?"

elanwheaton's comment, November 23, 2022 6:17 AM
good
Aman shastry's comment, January 17, 6:47 AM
future is AI
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November 17, 2021 4:42 PM
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Transforming Collaborative Decision Making with Collective Reasoning

Transforming Collaborative Decision Making with Collective Reasoning | Decision Intelligence News | Scoop.it
"These are the 'big three' sources of dysfunction representing lost opportunities to effective decisions:
  1. Collective alignment on the reasons for a decisionPoor alignment often results in an impasse, a frustrating end to a meeting, or a desire for leadership to override an otherwise open process...
  2. Systemic biasValuable diverse thoughts fall to the floor while entrenched patterns and loud voices rule the day...
  3. Evidence-based accuracy tracking: Insufficient recording of the reasons and influences underpinning a decision create opportunities for a revisionist history where comments surface such as 'I think I was on leave when that decision was made...'"
 
Lorien Pratt's insight:

This article describes three ways that decisions go wrong, all of which are addressed by decision intelligence: Brainstorming together and building a Causal Decision Diagram (CDD), especially when led by a disinterested facilitator, builds alignment about the intended outcomes and the actions that can lead to them. This process encourages and values diverse points of view, decreasing tendencies towards bias. This provides a decision "blueprint" capturing decision reasoning and evidence in a persistent and readable way.

 

Until decision intelligence, our mechanisms for recording the reasons and influences underpinning decisions were too hard to use, leading to the problems described in this article.  A Causal Decision Diagram bridges this gap, and goes a long way to solving this problem.  See www.linkthebook.com for specifics.

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