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This paper aimed to capture the variability of rainfall on the efficiency of mulching and limiting water stress using a crop growth model applied to upland rice in Madagascar. It used a 17-year series of weather data with a range of soil water conditions, sowing dates and growth and yield limitations. In the majority of simulations, enhancing water infiltration through CA mainly increased water loss through drainage. They suggest better water infiltration may also reduce the production risks involved in early sowing or crop intensification and offer new opportunities for farmers.