Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience
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Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?

Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible? | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
The argument that human society can decouple economic growth—defined as growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—from growth in environmental impacts is appealing. If such decoupling is possible, it means that GDP growth is a sustainable societal goal. Here we show that the decoupling concept can be interpreted using an easily understood model of economic growth and environmental impact. The simple model is compared to historical data and modelled projections to demonstrate that growth in GDP ultimately cannot be decoupled from growth in material and energy use. It is therefore misleading to develop growth-oriented policy around the expectation that decoupling is possible. We also note that GDP is increasingly seen as a poor proxy for societal wellbeing. GDP growth is therefore a questionable societal goal. Society can sustainably improve wellbeing, including the wellbeing of its natural assets, but only by discarding GDP growth as the goal in favor of more comprehensive measures of societal wellbeing.
Philippe Vallats insight:

Are there still believers of "sustainable growth"? Read this...

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Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience
Initially dealing with risks and uncertainty in a complex world, this curation goes newly beyond: about collapse of complex systems and transition.
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Quelques liens et références pour découvrir la collapsologie

Quelques liens et références pour découvrir la collapsologie | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it

Voici une liste non-exhaustive de personnalités d'articles, de vidéos, de livres, de sites web...Bref, des références, traitant de l'effondrement de notre civilisation thermo-industrielle.

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Compilation d'ouvrages pertinents

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Prospects for a World of Declining GDP

Prospects for a World of Declining GDP | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
Our human species has lived on this earth for about 15,000 generations. Until 1750 there was essentially no growth in GDP per person. For 300,000 years average people experienced no overall improvement in welfare during their lifetimes. Only during the past 15 generations, a mere 0.001% of humanity’s existence on earth, has it become accepted …
Philippe Vallats insight:

"(...) the end of growth will be forced on society by factors outside the elites’ control, such as declining availability of energy, falling resource quality, rising disruptions from climate change, falling agricultural yields from loss of arable land, growing costs of environmental services – potable water, breathable air, survivable temperatures, and, perhaps, through civil strife caused by the decline in social cohesion produced by massive inequality."

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Mauvaise passe pour les géants du pétrole américain : leurs projets écocides tombent comme des mouches

Mauvaise passe pour les géants du pétrole américain : leurs projets écocides tombent comme des mouches | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
Enfin de bonnes nouvelles sur le front du climat. Et de très mauvaises pour les grandes compagnies pétrolières américaines et leur supporter en chef, Donald Trump. Trois projets très controversés de construction d’oléoducs et de gazoducs viennent d’être arrêtés pour des raisons environnementales. Les écolos sont ravis, tout comme les tribus Sioux dont la terre sacrée allait être ravagée par la cupidité des hommes du fossile.
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métaux rares: la face cachée de la transition énergétique | GUILLAUME PITRON | TEDxLille

En nous émancipant des énergies fossiles, nous sombrons en réalité dans une nouvelle dépendance : celle aux métaux rares. Graphite, cobalt, indium, platinoïdes, tungstène, terres rares… ces ressources sont devenues indispensables à notre nouvelle société écologique et numérique. Elles se nichent dans nos smartphones, nos ordinateurs, tablettes et autre objets connectés de notre quotidien. Or les coûts environnementaux, économiques et géopolitiques de cette dépendance pourraient se révéler encore plus dramatiques que ceux qui nous lient au pétrole. Guillaume Pitron est journaliste et réalisateur. Ses enquêtes de terrain décryptent les tendances symptomatiques d’un monde globalisé. Ses recherches s’intéressent notamment aux enjeux économiques, politiques et environnementaux liés à l’exploitation des matières premières. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at https://www.ted.com/tedx
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Climat : la Terre se rapproche de points de basculement irréversibles

Climat : la Terre se rapproche de points de basculement irréversibles | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
C’est le cri d’alarme lancé par des scientifiques dans la revue Nature.
Philippe Vallats insight:

Pendant ce temps, les parlementaires débattent de longues heures sur le terrorisme (qui ne tue personne en Suisse), la burqua (qui concerne quelques ridicules cas isolés en Suisse)...

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“Post-COVID”: avez-vous de l’espoir ou de la confiance pour l’avenir?

“Post-COVID”: avez-vous de l’espoir ou de la confiance pour l’avenir? | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
Nous sommes bombardé.es, par les médias, les politiques, les dirigeant.e.s, les meneur.euses d'opinion de "il faut soutenir l'économie", "il faut relancer la consommation", "il faut faire ses vacances en Suisse". Je ne sais pas vous, mais moi me vient la question "et pourquoi donc?", ou "sinon quoi?" Le constat: nous avons perdu nos repères et [...]
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Nine Leadership Habits for Navigating the Crisis

Nine Leadership Habits for Navigating the Crisis | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
The future of work is here. Courtesy of coronavirus, it has arrived rather abruptly. Suddenly, the world is a virtual team. A team in crisis. You are the leader navigating your business through this storm. Under the stress of these perilous times,…Read more ›
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Arthur Keller : On a tous un rôle à jouer dans le changement

Arthur Keller : On a tous un rôle à jouer dans le changement | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it

Arthur Keller est expert des risques systémiques, des vulnérabilités des sociétés industrielles et des stratégies de résilience collective. Il partage avec nous son analyse des conséquences de la crise sanitaire planétaire qui immobilise actuellement la moitié de l'humanité.

Philippe Vallats insight:

"La résilience de systèmes composés d’hommes et de femmes en interaction avec des écosystèmes et les ressources qu’on y trouve… et il s’agit d’une résilience elle-même systémique, c’est-à-dire la capacité à rester fonctionnel lorsqu’on encaisse un choc qui a des répercussions disruptives sur l’ensemble du système : approvisionnements clés, ressources et infrastructures essentielles, stabilité socio-économique, sécurité des habitants, etc. Parmi les fondamentaux de ce type de résilience, on peut citer la surcapacité productive, les stocks stratégiques, la culture du risque et la préparation collective, la solidarité entre parties prenantes, la redondance des systèmes critiques, la mise en place d’une sobriété négociée collectivement, la gestion partagée des communs, l’implication citoyenne. Organiser des systèmes durablement résilients est possible si c’est entrepris à l’échelle territoriale."

Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 22, 8:43 AM

"La résilience de systèmes composés d’hommes et de femmes en interaction avec des écosystèmes et les ressources qu’on y trouve… et il s’agit d’une résilience elle-même systémique, c’est-à-dire la capacité à rester fonctionnel lorsqu’on encaisse un choc qui a des répercussions disruptives sur l’ensemble du système : approvisionnements clés, ressources et infrastructures essentielles, stabilité socio-économique, sécurité des habitants, etc. Parmi les fondamentaux de ce type de résilience, on peut citer la surcapacité productive, les stocks stratégiques, la culture du risque et la préparation collective, la solidarité entre parties prenantes, la redondance des systèmes critiques, la mise en place d’une sobriété négociée collectivement, la gestion partagée des communs, l’implication citoyenne. Organiser des systèmes durablement résilients est possible si c’est entrepris à l’échelle territoriale."

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The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System

The Pandemic Isn’t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
Bernard Avishai discusses Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s writings on probability and preparedness, and on how governments and financial markets should respond to the coronavirus pandemic and other disasters.
Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 22, 8:15 AM

"Decision-makers must act swiftly,” the authors conclude, “and avoid the fallacy that to have an appropriate respect for uncertainty in the face of possible irreversible catastrophe amounts to paranoia."

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Why we find it difficult to recognise a crisis - BBC Future

Why we find it difficult to recognise a crisis - BBC Future | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
The current pandemic has affected some countries more than others, partly because they have been slow to react to the crisis. That, it turns out, is a very human response.
Philippe Vallats insight:

Five characteristics of the best-prepared “high-reliability” organisations, which rarely experience disasters.

  1. Such organisations are “preoccupied with failure”, says Sutcliffe. “What I mean by that is they understood what they wanted to achieve, but they also thought a lot about the ways in which they could get sidetracked and the ways in which things could go wrong.” This includes taking near misses seriously. (…)
  2. High-reliability organisations also encourage their employees to avoid simplification and embrace complexity, even if that means abandoning appealing positive narratives.
  3. They spend most of their time focusing on the here and now, rather than on big-picture strategy.
  4. They build resilience, mostly by ensuring that their staff have the time and encouragement to tackle problems rather than sweeping them under the carpet.
  5. They have flexible decision-making structures, meaning decisions can variously be made by low-ranking people on the ground and upper management, depending on the nature of the crisis. 
Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 16, 1:29 AM

Five characteristics of the best-prepared “high-reliability” organisations, which rarely experience disasters.

  1. Such organisations are “preoccupied with failure”, says Sutcliffe. “What I mean by that is they understood what they wanted to achieve, but they also thought a lot about the ways in which they could get sidetracked and the ways in which things could go wrong.” This includes taking near misses seriously. (…)
  2. High-reliability organisations also encourage their employees to avoid simplification and embrace complexity, even if that means abandoning appealing positive narratives.
  3. They spend most of their time focusing on the here and now, rather than on big-picture strategy.
  4. They build resilience, mostly by ensuring that their staff have the time and encouragement to tackle problems rather than sweeping them under the carpet.
  5. They have flexible decision-making structures, meaning decisions can variously be made by low-ranking people on the ground and upper management, depending on the nature of the crisis. 
Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 19, 7:20 AM

Five characteristics of the best-prepared “high-reliability” organisations, which rarely experience disasters.

  1. Such organisations are “preoccupied with failure”, says Sutcliffe. “What I mean by that is they understood what they wanted to achieve, but they also thought a lot about the ways in which they could get sidetracked and the ways in which things could go wrong.” This includes taking near misses seriously. (…)
  2. High-reliability organisations also encourage their employees to avoid simplification and embrace complexity, even if that means abandoning appealing positive narratives.
  3. They spend most of their time focusing on the here and now, rather than on big-picture strategy.
  4. They build resilience, mostly by ensuring that their staff have the time and encouragement to tackle problems rather than sweeping them under the carpet.
  5. They have flexible decision-making structures, meaning decisions can variously be made by low-ranking people on the ground and upper management, depending on the nature of the crisis. 
Rescooped by Philippe Vallat from Coronavirus - COVID-19: a systemic view
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The U.S. Had a Pandemic War Game Called Dark Winter. Trump Ignored Its Warnings.

The U.S. Had a Pandemic War Game Called Dark Winter. Trump Ignored Its Warnings. | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
One simulation of an uncontrolled disease outbreak concluded with riots and the National Guard on the streets.
Philippe Vallat's curator insight, April 3, 2:13 AM

"Dark Winter [simulation] has since become legendary in senior policymaking circles in Washington for a different reason: It has regularly been cited by its designers and participants as the clearest exhibit of the spiraling stresses, and potential social collapse, that could be sparked by a public health crisis."

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Oil Refineries Face Shutdowns as Demand Collapses

Oil Refineries Face Shutdowns as Demand Collapses | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
A growing number of refineries around the world are either curtailing operations or shutting down entirely as the oil market collapses. 
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How Coronavirus may be the stress test which finally unmasks the myths, vulnerabilities and follies of the global risk management discipline

How Coronavirus may be the stress test which finally unmasks the myths, vulnerabilities and follies of the global risk management discipline | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
The 2020 Coronavirus pandemic is now being called the most significant, global threat since World War II. Since the virus first emerged in late 2019 more than 700,000 cases have been reported in over 190 countries and territories, resulting in more than 30,000 deaths and with still no identifiable e
Philippe Vallats insight:

Excellent post, insightful

Philippe Vallat's curator insight, March 30, 6:29 AM

Excellent post, insightful

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Welcome to the Anthropocene | Great Acceleration

Welcome to the Anthropocene | Great Acceleration | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it

Human activity, predominantly the global economic system, is now the prime driver of change in the Earth System

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The Global Risks Report 2020

The Global Risks Report 2020 | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
The 15th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report is published as critical risks are manifesting. The global economy is facing an increased risk of stagnation, climate change is striking harder and more rapidly than expected, and fragmented cyberspace threatens the full potential of next-generation technologies — all while citizens worldwide protest political and economic conditions and voice concerns about systems that exacerbate inequality.
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It’s time to grieve the world we’ve lost to climate change—and start to move on

It’s time to grieve the world we’ve lost to climate change—and start to move on | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
As long as we are still here, it means we haven’t yet lost the fight.
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Le déni: une posture politique assumée?

Le déni: une posture politique assumée? | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
Au café du coin (maintenant que c'est de nouveau possible), nous nous moquons de Bolsonaro et de son arrogance envers la pandémie, nous nous inquiétons des menaces de mort contre les scientifiques, nous rions (une fois de plus) de Trump qui déclarait à Tulsa que «Quand on fait ce volume de dépistage, on trouve plus [...]
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Increased Violence Reflects an Energy Problem

Increased Violence Reflects an Energy Problem | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
Why are we seeing so much violence recently? One explanation is that people are sympathizing with those in the Minneapolis area who are upset at the death of George Floyd. They believe that a white cop used excessive force in subduing Floyd, leading to his death. I believe that there is a much deeper story…
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Qu’est-ce qu’une « crise » ?

Qu’est-ce qu’une « crise » ? | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
Pour survivre dans un milieu dont les évolutions sont incertaines et aléatoires, le système doit sans cesse se réorganiser et se régénérer.
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'We're doomed': Mayer Hillman on the climate reality no one else will dare mention | Climate change | The Guardian

The 86-year-old social scientist says accepting the impending end of most life on Earth might be the very thing needed to help us prolong it

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The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change

The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it

We project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (...), such abrupt exposure events begin before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and higher latitudes by 2050. 

Philippe Vallats insight:

No good news

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ENJEUX STRATÉGIQUES DE LA SÉCURITÉ D’APPROVISIONNEMENT PÉTROLIER EN FRANCE

ENJEUX STRATÉGIQUES DE LA SÉCURITÉ D’APPROVISIONNEMENT PÉTROLIER EN FRANCE | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it

Compte-rendu de la conférence tenue le 23 janvier 2020 à l’École militaire. INTERVENANTS :   Général Jean-Charles Ferré (directeur central du Service des essences des armées); Matthieu Auzanneau (The Shift Project) 

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Du pétrole, ou pas ? – Jean-Marc Jancovici

Du pétrole, ou pas ? – Jean-Marc Jancovici | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it

Du pétrole ? Mais nous en avons trop ! De fait, avec un baril qui se traine entre 20 et 30 dollars dans un contexte de surproduction massive, il serait déraisonnable d’expliquer que nous en manquons déjà. Et pourtant…

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Will the coronavirus kill the oil industry and help save the climate? | The Guardian

Will the coronavirus kill the oil industry and help save the climate? | The Guardian | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
Analysts say the coronavirus and a savage price war means the oil and gas sector will never be the same again
Philippe Vallats insight:

"Experts, including Currie at Goldman Sachs, say the climate change debate will almost certainly take a difference course after the crisis. But exactly what that looks like remains to be seen. “The question is how long this is all going to last, and no one really knows,” said Kretzschmar."

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0,19 dollar le baril : les producteurs de pétrole payent pour se débarrasser de leurs barils

0,19 dollar le baril : les producteurs de pétrole payent pour se débarrasser de leurs barils | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
Le marché du pétrole continue de dégringoler en plein milieu de la crise sanitaire de coronavirus. Le confinement de la moitié de la population mondiale provoque une chute de la demande inédite qui risque d’anéantir l’industrie du gaz de schiste américain. En Mars 2020, le prix du baril de pétrole a chuté de plus de … Voir plus
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Les cinq stades de l'effondrement, par Dmitry Orlov

Les cinq stades de l'effondrement, par Dmitry Orlov | Crisis, collapse, transition, resilience | Scoop.it
Comme l’évoque son nom, Dmitry Orlov est né en Russie. Il l’a quittée avec ses parents à l’âge de 12 ans. Il est maintenant citoyen des Etats-Unis mais de fréquents séjours en Russie entre la fin des années 1980 et le milieu des années 1990 lui ont permis de suivre l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique et …
Philippe Vallats insight:

Pour une présentation par l'auteur lui-même:

https://www.les-crises.fr/les-cinq-stades-de-l-effondrement/

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