Social Foraging
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Social Foraging
Dynamics of Social Interaction
Curated by Ashish Umre
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Processors That Work Like Brains Will Accelerate Artificial Intelligence

Processors That Work Like Brains Will Accelerate Artificial Intelligence | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

Microchips modeled on the brain may excel at tasks that baffle today’s computers.

 

Picture a person reading these words on a laptop in a coffee shop. The machine made of metal, plastic, and silicon consumes about 50 watts of power as it translates bits of information—a long string of 1s and 0s—into a pattern of dots on a screen. Meanwhile, inside that person’s skull, a gooey clump of proteins, salt, and water uses a fraction of that power not only to recognize those patterns as letters, words, and sentences but to recognize the song playing on the radio.

 

Computers are incredibly inefficient at lots of tasks that are easy for even the simplest brains, such as recognizing images and navigating in unfamiliar spaces. Machines found in research labs or vast data centers can perform such tasks, but they are huge and energy-hungry, and they need specialized programming. Google recently made headlines with software that can reliably recognize cats and human faces in video clips, but this achievement required no fewer than 16,000 powerful processors.

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The Small Social Networks at the Heart of Chicago Violence

The Small Social Networks at the Heart of Chicago Violence | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

If you run with a bad crowd, statistically speaking, you'll get in trouble.

 

CeaseFire and The Interrupters reframed Chicago crime to study the idea of violence as a virus, and it’s become both a familiar metaphor and guide for real-world policy; “epidemic” is no longer just a scare word for homicide counts, it’s a conceptual frame.

 

But the epidemiology of violence is still in its infancy, and as with any dimly understood virus, people are irrationally afraid of it—fearful they could pick it up on public transportation or by wandering into anywhere it’s been known to spread. Is it airborne? What kind of contact do you need to pick it up? What does “risky behavior” entail when it comes to catching a bullet instead of catching a cold?

 

Andrew Papachristos, a Yale sociologist, Chicago native, and graduate of Loyola and the University of Chicago, has spent much of his career thus far chasing these lines of transmission, literally building up social networks of violence from the traces people leave in the criminal-justice system before they’re shot or killed.

 

It’s a theory in its early stages, one Papachristos likens to the kind of epidemiological work made famous in the early years of the AIDS crisis, as the method of transmission was reverse-engineered from what victims did and who they did it with—and suggests the possibility that the treatment could be similar, to “flood the network with services” with support when a person is at risk.

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Is conflict GOOD for society? 'Swarm intelligence' research links fighting to better decision-making in a community

Is conflict GOOD for society? 'Swarm intelligence' research links fighting to better decision-making in a community | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

When a group shares the same goals, they make poor decisions This is because no-one questions the decision or offers an alternative
In groups with conflicting views, decisions are more methodical New research builds on the theory of swarm intelligence where groups share decision making It looked into behaviour of meerkats but principles may apply to humans

 

It may seem counterintuitive to stick people who don’t get on in a room together and ask them to make difficult decisions, but it could produce the best results, according to new research.

Conflicting views help increase the accuracy and effectiveness of decisions because they can make members of a group question why they have certain goals, and consider the goals of others.

To study this theory, researchers looked at the behaviour and decision making processes of meerkats, but the same principles could be applied to other social animals including humans.

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The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena

The global spread of epidemics, rumors, opinions, and innovations are complex, network-driven dynamic processes. The combined multiscale nature and intrinsic heterogeneity of the underlying networks make it difficult to develop an intuitive understanding of these processes, to distinguish relevant from peripheral factors, to predict their time course, and to locate their origin. However, we show that complex spatiotemporal patterns can be reduced to surprisingly simple, homogeneous wave propagation patterns, if conventional geographic distance is replaced by a probabilistically motivated effective distance. In the context of global, air-traffic–mediated epidemics, we show that effective distance reliably predicts disease arrival times. Even if epidemiological parameters are unknown, the method can still deliver relative arrival times. The approach can also identify the spatial origin of spreading processes and successfully be applied to data of the worldwide 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and 2003 SARS epidemic.

 

The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena
Dirk Brockmann, Dirk Helbing

Science 13 December 2013:
Vol. 342 no. 6164 pp. 1337-1342
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1245200


Via Complexity Digest
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Phillip Trotter's curator insight, December 31, 2013 3:59 AM

This is an awesome insight that needs tested across other datasets to find out how universal it is. Good paper.

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Language Data Reveals Twitter’s Global Reach

Language Data Reveals Twitter’s Global Reach | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

Twitter’s footprint is growing fast, although English speakers in the U.S. remain the largest demographic. The trick now is to turn its global presence into advertising dollars.

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Communities, roles, and informational organigrams in directed networks: the Twitter network of the UK riots

Directionality is a crucial ingredient in many complex networks, in which information, energy or influence are transmitted. We showcase a framework for flow-based analysis for directed networks through the study of a network of influential Twitter users during the 2011 riots in England. Our analysis extracts nuanced descriptions of the network in terms of a multiresolution structure of interest communities within which flows of information are contained and reinforced. Such communities identify groups according to location, profession, employer, and topic, and are largely undetected if edge directionality is ignored. The flow structure also allows us to generate an interest distance, affording a personalised view of the network from any given user. A complementary flow-based analysis leads to a classification of users into five roles beyond the standard leader-follower dichotomy. Integrating both viewpoints, we find that interest communities fall into distinct informational organigrams, which reflect their mix of users and the quality of dialogue. Our generic framework provides insight into how flows are generated, distributed, preserved and consumed in directed networks.

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The Emerging Technologies Shaping Future 5G Networks

The Emerging Technologies Shaping Future 5G Networks | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

The fifth generation of mobile communications technology will see the end of the “cell” as the fundamental building block of communication networks.

 

It may seem as if the fourth generation of mobile communications technology has only just hit the airwaves. But so-called 4G technology has been around in various guises since 2006 and is now widely available in metropolitan areas of the US, Europe and Asia.

 

It’s no surprise then that communications specialists are beginning to think about the next revolution. So what will 5G bring us?

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Protein-Protein Interactions in a Crowded Environment: An Analysis via Cross-Docking Simulations and Evolutionary Information

Protein-Protein Interactions in a Crowded Environment: An Analysis via Cross-Docking Simulations and Evolutionary Information | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

Large-scale analyses of protein-protein interactions based on coarse-grain molecular docking simulations and binding site predictions resulting from evolutionary sequence analysis, are possible and realizable on hundreds of proteins with variate structures and interfaces. We demonstrated this on the 168 proteins of the Mintseris Benchmark 2.0. On the one hand, we evaluated the quality of the interaction signal and the contribution of docking information compared to evolutionary information showing that the combination of the two improves partner identification. On the other hand, since protein interactions usually occur in crowded environments with several competing partners, we realized a thorough analysis of the interactions of proteins with true partners but also with non-partners to evaluate whether proteins in the environment, competing with the true partner, affect its identification. We found three populations of proteins: strongly competing, never competing, and interacting with different levels of strength. Populations and levels of strength are numerically characterized and provide a signature for the behavior of a protein in the crowded environment. We showed that partner identification, to some extent, does not depend on the competing partners present in the environment, that certain biochemical classes of proteins are intrinsically easier to analyze than others, and that small proteins are not more promiscuous than large ones. Our approach brings to light that the knowledge of the binding site can be used to reduce the high computational cost of docking simulations with no consequence in the quality of the results, demonstrating the possibility to apply coarse-grain docking to datasets made of thousands of proteins. Comparison with all available large-scale analyses aimed to partner predictions is realized. We release the complete decoys set issued by coarse-grain docking simulations of both true and false interacting partners, and their evolutionary sequence analysis leading to binding site predictions. Download site: http://www.lgm.upmc.fr/CCDMintseris/

 

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Subliminal Influence or Plagiarism by Negligence? The Slodderwetenschap of Ignoring the Internet

Does the availability of instant reference checking and “find more like this” research on the Internet change the standards by which academics should feel “obligated” to cite the work of others? Is the deliberate refusal to look for the existence of parallel work by others an ethical lapse or merely negligence? At a minimum, the Dutch standard of Slodderwetenschap (sloppy science) is clearly at work. At a maximum so is plagiarism. In between sits the process to be labeled as ‘plagiarism by negligence’. This article seeks to expose the intellectual folly of allowing such a plagiarism to be tolerated by the academy through a discussion of the cases of Terrence Deacon and Stephen Wolfram.

 

Subliminal Influence or Plagiarism by Negligence? The Slodderwetenschap of Ignoring the Internet

Michael Lissack

http://isce.edu/Subliminal.pdf


Via Complexity Digest
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Arjen ten Have's comment, December 4, 2013 2:01 PM
The Dutch standard of Slodderwetenschap? Bit sloppy, it is a recent Dutch word, hope not ths standard.
Ellie Kesselman Wells's comment, December 5, 2013 4:43 PM
Excellent subject matter! Thank you!
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Stealth Camera Takes Pictures Virtually in the Dark

Stealth Camera Takes Pictures Virtually in the Dark | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

Talk about taking a dim view of things. Researchers have obtained ultrasharp images of weakly illuminated objects using a bare minimum of photons: mathematically stitching together information from single particles of light recorded by each pixel of a solid-state detector.

The achievement is likely to support studies of fragile biological materials, such as the human eye, that could be damaged or destroyed by higher levels of illumination. The development could also have applications for military surveillance, such as in a spy camera that records a scene with a minimum of illumination to elude detection.

 

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A Blind Person Understands The Way A Sighted Friend “Sees” The World

A Blind Person Understands The Way A Sighted Friend “Sees” The World | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

Trendiness in the brain sciences often has an   obscure, esoteric quality that belies the prominence accorded neuro in both academia and popular culture. Toward the top of the list of arcana resides the ponderously titled “embodied cognition.” This is the idea that cognitive processes—thought, emotion—arise from our interactions with the physical world around us. Reduced to its simplest level: holding a warm tea cup might make you feel well disposed toward your lunch guest.

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Can Financial Engineering Cure Cancer?

Can Financial Engineering Cure Cancer? | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

his may seem an odd question, but can financial engineering cure cancer? No less of an intellectual light than Andrew W. Lo of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and member of the Future of Finance Advisory Council believes financial engineering may be a potent weapon in the quest to find a cure. In fact, this was the topic of Lo’s presentation at the recent Fixed-Income Management Conferencein Boston.

 

Lo’s thesis rests on several key points:

Applying portfolio theory to finding a cure for cancer helps increase expected returns and lower expected risks for the capital deployed.Applying financial engineering through securitization allows for financing a cure for cancer in a smarter way that ensures greater participation from prospective investors.Recent anecdotal evidence suggests that human genome mapping allows for the identification of problematic genes that may be targeted by customized medicines to fight specific cancers.

Notorious capital destroyers, biotech investments of more than $400 billion have never generated returns in the aggregate covering their costs of capital. In fact, venture capital firms are so discouraged by their returns that the number and size of biotech investments has steadily declined from their peaks in 2007–2008.

 

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What Big Data Means For Social Science

We've known big data has had big impacts in business, and in lots of prediction tasks. I want to understand, what does big data mean for what we do for science? Specifically, I want to think about the following context:  You have a scientist who has a hypothesis that they would like to test, and I want to think about how the testing of that hypothesis might change as data gets bigger and bigger. So that's going to be the rule of the game. Scientists start with a hypothesis and they want to test it; what's going to happen?

 


Via Alessandro Cerboni, NESS, Complexity Digest
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First Direct Measurement of Infection Rates For Smartphone Viruses

First Direct Measurement of Infection Rates For Smartphone Viruses | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

Nobody has ever accurately measured the number of smartphones infected with malware. Until now.

 

One of the great fears with mobile phones is the potential for pandemic viral infection. The worry is that mobile phones are uniquely susceptible to viruses because they connect to the web, phone network and to each other providing numerous routes for infections to spread.

 

But data showing the actual level of viral infection is hard to come by. Estimates range from more than 4 per cent of Android devices to less than 0.0009 per cent of smartphones in the US. That’s a huge spread. So where does the truth lie? 

 

Today we get an answer of sorts thanks to the work of Hien Thi Thu Truong at the University of Helsinki and a few pals. These guys have measured the rate of malware infection on a large number of Android phones, the first independent group to do this. The bottom line? Infection rates are relatively low–for the moment.

 

These guys measured viral infection using a battery monitoring app known as Carat. This was designed and built at UC Berkeley and the University of Helsinki by many of the team involved in this work. Carat analyses a smartphone’s energy usage and then highlights apps that are hogging the battery.

 

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Birds, bees, and banks: lessons from collapsing ecosystems

Birds, bees, and banks: lessons from collapsing ecosystems | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

Figuring out why financial crises emerge in seemingly stable economies is tough. Widespread collapses are notoriously difficult to predict - to do so requires a comprehensive view of a complex, interconnected system. But help may be at hand: experts in finance are now looking to certain fields of ecology to help provide this viewpoint.

 

Ecologists have long been concerned with how connections between species relate to the overall stability of an ecosystem. Rather than focus on an individual species, some use a powerful branch of mathematics called network theory to map out a web of interaction. These networks can then be compared to one another to provide insights into how an ecosystem might cope with external shocks. Depending on the network’s structure, even a small change can threaten an entire system.

 

For example, in the 1940’s a drought-resistant plant native to Africa and Asia known as Buffelgrass was introduced to the south-west America’s Sonoran Desert as a means of feeding cattle. Although the hardy grass initially seemed benign, it soon began displacing native species of flowering cacti. This triggered a destructive feedback loop: as populations of pollinators (such as the Rufous Hummingbird) began to suffer, damage to the flowering cacti accelerated. Within a few decades, these harmful impacts had spread and multiplied over a broader network of pollinators and plants.

 

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Biomimetics: Smart Geometry at Work

Biomimetics: Smart Geometry at Work | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

"[...] Compared to many engineering materials, the substances/materials of biology do not have any especially outstanding characteristic. They are successful not so much because of what they are but because of the way in which they are put together. The bulk of mechanical loads in biology are carried by polymer fibres such as cellulose (plants), collagen (animals), chitin (insects, crustaceans) and silks (spiders's webs). The fibres are bonded together by various substances (polysaccharrides, polyphenols, etc.), sometimes in combination with minerals such as calcium carbonate (mollusk shells) and hydroxyapatite (bone). Their geometrical organization and the degree of interaction between them provide the means of tailoring properties for specific requirements, meeting the necessary functional performance."


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How Internet-Style Routing For Gas Could Dramatically Improve Europe's Energy Security

How Internet-Style Routing For Gas Could Dramatically Improve Europe's Energy Security | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

Routing gas around Europe using the same decentralised control techniques developed for the internet could reduce the way energy crises cascade, say network and complexity theorists.

 

One of the biggest challenges facing modern society is energy security: how to guarantee a safe and secure supply of energy in an increasingly networked world where incidents on one side of the planet can have a significant impact on the energy supply on the other.

 

In the last few years, disputes between Russia and Ukraine over gas pipelines have cut off the supply to parts of Europe. Hurricane Katrina had a significant impact on the energy supply in the US and a terrorist attack on an Algerian gas facility earlier this year reduced the supply to Europe by 10 per cent. In March, the UK was left with just 6 hours’-worth of stored gas as a buffer for the entire country.

 

These kinds of crises are an inevitable part of the modern world. Preventing them simply isn’t possible. Instead, energy specialist have begun to think about mitigating their effects. The question is: how?

Today, we get an answer of sorts thanks to the work of Rui Carvahlo from Queen Mary University of London in the UK and a few pals who have studied how problems in the gas supply cascade through the network of pipelines that carry the stuff across Europe.

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Evgeny Morozov on Why Our Privacy Problem is a Democracy Problem in Disguise

Evgeny Morozov on Why Our Privacy Problem is a Democracy Problem in Disguise | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

In 1967, The Public Interest, then a leading venue for highbrow policy debate, published a provocative essay by Paul Baran, one of the fathers of the data transmission method known as packet switching. Titled “The Future Computer Utility,” the essay speculated that someday a few big, centralized computers would provide “information processing … the same way one now buys electricity.”

 

Our home computer console will be used to send and receive messages—like telegrams. We could check to see whether the local department store has the advertised sports shirt in stock in the desired color and size. We could ask when delivery would be guaranteed, if we ordered. The information would be up-to-the-minute and accurate. We could pay our bills and compute our taxes via the console. We would ask questions and receive answers from “information banks”—automated versions of today’s libraries. We would obtain up-to-the-minute listing of all television and radio programs … The computer could, itself, send a message to remind us of an impending anniversary and save us from the disastrous consequences of forgetfulness.

 

It took decades for cloud computing to fulfill Baran’s vision. But he was prescient enough to worry that utility computing would need its own regulatory model. Here was an employee of the RAND Corporation—hardly a redoubt of Marxist thought—fretting about the concentration of market power in the hands of large computer utilities and demanding state intervention. Baran also wanted policies that could “offer maximum protection to the preservation of the rights of privacy of information”:

 

Highly sensitive personal and important business information will be stored in many of the contemplated systems … At present, nothing more than trust—or, at best, a lack of technical sophistication—stands in the way of a would-be eavesdropper … Today we lack the mechanisms to insure adequate safeguards. Because of the difficulty in rebuilding complex systems to incorporate safeguards at a later date, it appears desirable to anticipate these problems.

 

Sharp, bullshit-free analysis: techno-futurism has been in decline ever since.

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Complexity measurement of natural and artificial languages

We compared entropy for texts written in natural languages (English, Spanish) and artificial languages (computer software) based on a simple expression for the entropy as a function of message length and specific word diversity. Code text written in artificial languages showed higher entropy than text of similar length expressed in natural languages. Spanish texts exhibit more symbolic diversity than English ones. Results showed that algorithms based on complexity measures differentiate artificial from natural languages, and that text analysis based on complexity measures allows the unveiling of important aspects of their nature. We propose specific expressions to examine entropy related aspects of tests and estimate the values of entropy, emergence, self-organization and complexity based on specific diversity and message length.

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Extrapolating Weak Selection in Evolutionary Games

Extrapolating Weak Selection in Evolutionary Games | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

In evolutionary games, reproductive success is determined by payoffs. Weak selection means that even large differences in game outcomes translate into small fitness differences. Many results have been derived using weak selection approximations, in which perturbation analysis facilitates the derivation of analytical results. Here, we ask whether results derived under weak selection are also qualitatively valid for intermediate and strong selection. By “qualitatively valid” we mean that the ranking of strategies induced by an evolutionary process does not change when the intensity of selection increases. For two-strategy games, we show that the ranking obtained under weak selection cannot be carried over to higher selection intensity if the number of players exceeds two. For games with three (or more) strategies, previous examples for multiplayer games have shown that the ranking of strategies can change with the intensity of selection. In particular, rank changes imply that the most abundant strategy at one intensity of selection can become the least abundant for another. We show that this applies already to pairwise interactions for a broad class of evolutionary processes. Even when both weak and strong selection limits lead to consistent predictions, rank changes can occur for intermediate intensities of selection. To analyze how common such games are, we show numerically that for randomly drawn two-player games with three or more strategies, rank changes frequently occur and their likelihood increases rapidly with the number of strategies . In particular, rank changes are almost certain for , which jeopardizes the predictive power of results derived for weak selection.

 

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Biomimicry and Patterns of Nature Can Offer Solutions to Complexity

Biomimicry and Patterns of Nature Can Offer Solutions to Complexity | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

"[...] people are also starting to look to nature not just for technical assistance, but for system-wide strategic solutions. Whether it is working out the best strategy to deal with economic recessions or contemplating the best way to lay out a new town, problem solvers are looking to nature for deeper insights. And little wonder. Over millions of years nature has managed thousands of interrelated components and living systems that collaborate to deliver a sustainable and self-generating system that benefit all its members. It is the way that nature organises itself to deal with this complexity that is the key for a new way of thinking about our problems according to Tim Winton, the founder of Pattern Dynamics. “Biomimicry takes the tactics of nature to make actual physical mechanisms, but Pattern Dynamics uses the patterns in nature to develop high level principles that can be used to build generative strategies,” he said."


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MABS 2014: The 15th International Workshop on Multi-Agent-Based Simulation

MABS 2014: The 15th International Workshop on Multi-Agent-Based Simulation | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

The 2014 Multi-Agent-Based Simulation (MABS) workshop is the fifteenth of a series that began in 1998. Its scientific focus lies in the confluence of social sciences and multi-agent systems, with a strong application/empirical vein, and its emphasis is stressed on (i) exploratory agent based simulation as a principled way of undertaking scientific research in the social sciences and (ii) using social theories as an inspiration to new frameworks and developments in multi-agent systems.

 

Important dates

January 20th, 2014

Electronic abstract submission.

January 22nd, 2014

Paper submission deadline.

February 19th, 2014

Notification of acceptance/rejection.

March 10th, 2014

Camera-ready due date.

May 5th-6th, 2014

Workshop dates.

August-December, 2014

Preparation of Post-Proceedings.

 

The excellent quality level of this workshop has been recognized since its inception and its proceedings have been regularly published in Springer's Lecture Notes series. MABS 2014 will be hosted at AAMAS 2014, the 13th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, which will take place in Paris, France, on May 5th-9th, 2014.

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Data Mining Reveals the Secret to Getting Good Answers

Data Mining Reveals the Secret to Getting Good Answers | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

If you want a good answer, ask a decent question. That’s the startling conclusion to a study of online Q&As.

 

If you spend any time programming, you’ll probably have come across the question and answer site Stack Overflow. The site allows anybody to post a question related to programing and receive answers from the community.

 

And it has been hugely successful. According to Alexa, the site is the 3rd most popular Q&A site in the world and 79th most popular website overall.

 

But this success has naturally led to a problem–the sheer number of questions and answers the site has to deal with. To help filter this information, users can rank both the questions and the answers, gaining a reputation for themselves as they contribute.

 

Nevertheless, Stack Overflow still struggles to weed out off topic and irrelevant questions and answers. This requires considerable input from experienced moderators. So an interesting question is whether it is possible to automate the process of weeding out the less useful question and answers as they are posted.

 

Today we get an answer of sorts thanks to the work of Yuan Yao at the State Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology in China and a team of buddies who say they’ve developed an algorithm that does the job.

And they say their work reveals an interesting insight: if you want good answers, ask a decent question. That may sound like a truism, but these guys point out that there has been no evidence to support this insight, until now.

 

“To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to quantitatively validate the correlation between the question quality and its associated answer quality,” say Yuan and co.

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The Cheerleader Effect: Seeing faces in groups makes them appear more attractive

The Cheerleader Effect: Seeing faces in groups makes them appear more attractive | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

Whether you're a casual user of social media sites like facebook and twitter or an avid online dater accessing eHarmony or Match.com, chances are you've created a personal online profile and been faced with a decision: What should you post for your profile picture? Many people post head shots or selfies, while others opt for pictures of their children, spouses, pets, or even favorite quotes or symbols. If your goal is to be perceived as attractive (and let's be honest, whose isn't?), then new research by Drew Walker and Edward Vul at the University of California, San Diego suggests your best bet is to opt for a group shot with friends.

 

A photo with friends conveys the fact that you are amiable and well-liked, but oddly enough that is not what makes you more appealing. Instead, the new research shows that individual faces appear more attractive when presented in a group than when presented alone — a perceptually driven phenomenon known as the cheerleader effect.

 

Consider the Laker girls or Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders. To many, these women are beautiful and sexy. However, their perceived beauty is in part a visual illusion, created by the fact that cheerleaders appear as a group rather than solo operators. Any one cheerleader seems far more attractive when she is with her team than when she is alone.

 

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Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks | Social Foraging | Scoop.it

The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of ‘systemic’ risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998–2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear – but unpredictable – signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies.

 

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