Russia as an Obstacle in the Settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
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Russia as an Obstacle in the Settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
From Tsarist period to the present day Russia try to keep under its control both internal and foreign policy of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia with the implementation of active agenda in the South Caucasus region. After the Soviet Union collapsed, in order to manage the former post-soviet area (excluding Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) Russia was trying to get back the region’s agenda to his administration via creating a new geopolitical means. Although the first step of newly formed Russian Federation in order to ensure its political influence in the South Caucasus region was to keep its army in the post-soviet area, but because of this goal could not be achieved, Russia was trying to create ethnic conflicts within the countries of the region or open wars between them. Because of necessity for economic unity and in order to cooperate with the post-soviet region in any forms the Commonwealth of Independent States was established on December 8,1991. In1993, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia became the members of this Union. Via creating of its own political-social unity Russia was trying to keep the region under its full control, on the other hand to create conditions for the ethnic conflicts in South Caucasus. If all of these years Armenia has unequivocally implemented the Russian-oriented policy, Azerbaijan and Georgia have tried to establish a balance between geopolitical forces. Mikhail Saakashvili who came to power as a result of “Velvet Revolution” occurred in Georgia in 2004, announced that the Euro Atlantic integration is the main direction of his country’s foreign political course. As a result this, the short-term war between Russia and Georgia took place on August 8,2008. Inorder to guarantee itself in the region, Russia supported the formation of the two new small states. On August 12,2008 inGeorgia got out from CIS. Since 2008, after the war with Georgia, in order to restore its image in the region and around the world, Russia has begun to be more active. What is important to Russia is to provide its own regional interests in the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In other words, for Russia to ensure its own interest is more important than who is in favor of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be solved. Stopping the Nagorno Karabakh conflict in the form of frozen, also evaluated as the impact of Russia over Azerbaijan. It’s a fact that Russia’s interests were provided in the package of “Madrid principles” adopted in2007, inPrague process with participation and consent of Russia, member of OSCE Minsk group. The initial stage of the Madrid principles provides the interests of each regional power, except Turkey and Azerbaijan, At this first stage, after seven district are liberated, refugees return to their land and after the realization of economic, social and infrastructure projects, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is expected to be discussed. This is also considered as the process which end is not successful for Azerbaijan. Therefore, to act in accordance with the interests of Azerbaijan by Turkey, responds to the main directions of its foreign policy. First of all it must be mentioned that, Russia refers to the South Caucasus region as its “backyard”. Therefore, it should not be thought that Russia one day will leave its “backyard” free. On the contrary, will prevent the willful intention of war of any country without its permission. In response to the Azerbaijani officials from time to time declare that they are ready to war, the Russian State Duma deputy and the Institute Director of Commonwealth of Independent States Konstantin Zatulin expressed that no one will support the step of war of Azerbaijan and economic interests of Azerbaijan will be damaged, energy agreements will lose their importance. To think about a war might lead to deterioration of Azerbaijan’s relations with Russia and western countries Considering that, in this case the West’s energy interests can be threatened, but Russia’s influence in the region could strengthen, how much the war would be dangerous is known from experience of Georgia. Today it seems unreal that Russia wants the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to be solved in favor of Azerbaijan. Russia knows that Azerbaijan will never conduct according to foreign policy options of Russia. Signing of the long-term energy contracts with West and the cooperation plan with NATO in the years of independence are examples for this. It is unacceptable for the West to lose the energy interests in case of war in the South Caucasus region. The sensitivity of the West is manifesting itself openly in Azerbaijan’s domestic politics. In the repeated calls from West to Azerbaijan has directly stated that, for the West its energy interests is the main issue in the region. The probability of war during these years between Iran and US makes Azerbaijan to be more careful in the foreign policy. Location of the Nagorno-Karabakh in the border with Iran, in terms of ensuring interests of the U.S. and EU, requires a more cautious approach to the solution of the problem. Location in the border of Iran will facilitate, NATO’s enter into territory under the name of peacekeeping. In such a complicated situation Azerbaijan’s desire to start a war is a wrong decision and is contrary to the state interests. It is hard to say that integration to CIS will play a positive role in solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in favor of Azerbaijan. CIS has not become a real economic and political unity and if it become in the future, Armenia may provide its interests in the Nagorno-Karabakh in favor of itself because it is more integrated state in that organization.
Curated by Orkhan
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