Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics
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Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics
A brief overview of relevant articles for IB and A-Level all relating to the UK economy
Curated by Graham Watson
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Second-hand clothing mountain piles up as Brexit halts exports to EU | Business | The Guardian

Second-hand clothing mountain piles up as Brexit halts exports to EU | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Deliveries of items given to charities for sale on the continent have fallen foul of rules of origin requirements
Graham Watson's insight:

Another unforeseen cost of Brexit - no longer do we suffer grain or butter mountains, but apparently we've now got our own second-hand clothing mountain, as we're unable to export to the EU. Another, unseen cost of Brexit. 

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Ocado stockpiles long-life products in case of no-deal Brexit | Business | The Guardian

Ocado stockpiles long-life products in case of no-deal Brexit | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Online grocer says limited warehouse space is limiting reserves and there is little it can do to mitigate feared fresh food import disruption
Graham Watson's insight:

Good news: more stockpiling in the event of a no deal Brexit. That's certainly a good use of resources, and utterly without any opportunity cost. And if Ocado are doing it, you can wager that other supermarkets are too. Not much in the way of economic efficiency for you to see here, officer. 

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'Virus drains no-deal Brexit medicines stockpiles'

'Virus drains no-deal Brexit medicines stockpiles' | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
UK is warned by the pharmaceutical industry to build up and pay for a broader stockpile of medicines.
Graham Watson's insight:

It seems that Britain's stockpile of medicines, originally bought in preparation for Brexit, have been run down as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Consequently, there are now calls for them to be built up again to guard against the possibility of a no deal Brexit. 

 

You could not make this sort of thing up.

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Brexit: UK growth tipped to slow as firms run down stockpiles | Business | The Guardian

Brexit: UK growth tipped to slow as firms run down stockpiles | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Business group downgrades GDP forecast and warns dwindling investment will hurt long-term economy
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest growth forecast from the British Chambers of Commerce suggests that the economy is going to slow as firms start to run down Brexit stockpiles.

 

A good time for a new Prime Minister to take office.

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Manufacturing shrinks as Brexit stockpiling halts

Manufacturing shrinks as Brexit stockpiling halts | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
UK manufacturing contracted in May for the first time since July 2016, an influential survey indicates.
Graham Watson's insight:

The health, or otherwise, of the UK economy is again called into question, with the latest PMI data suggesting that last month's figure was a blip reflecting pre-Brexit stockpiling and not the more general economic health of the country.  

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UK economy grows faster than expected ahead of Brexit

UK economy grows faster than expected ahead of Brexit | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The economy grew 0.3% in the three months to February, official figures show, helped by stockpiling.
Graham Watson's insight:

Wow! Hurrah! 

 

What a birthday present: the UK economy grew by 0.3% in the three months to February, higher than expected but not really a cause for much in the way of celebration. It's believed that stockpiling has helped boost the figure. 

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Brexit: Toilet paper maker stockpiles in a case of no-deal

Brexit: Toilet paper maker stockpiles in a case of no-deal | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Major toilet tissue producer Wepa has accelerated plans to charter ships to prepare for no-deal.
Graham Watson's insight:

Even toilet paper manufacturers are stocking up, in the hope that Brexit doesn't wipe them out.

 

In this case, manufacturer, Wepa, has stockpiled an extra 600 tonnes of toilet paper in the event of no-deal. Well, it doesn't go off does it - but there's still an opportunity cost.

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UK economic growth remains sluggish

UK economic growth remains sluggish | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The economy expanded by 0.5% in January but three monthly growth remained weak.
Graham Watson's insight:

The growth figures for the last quarter are out. Crack open the champagne. Three monthly growth is up by 0.2%, but there are worries that rises in wholesale activity indicates a rise in pre-Brexit stockpiling. 

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UK manufacturers' optimism at 27-year low amid Brexit stockpiling | Business | The Guardian

UK manufacturers' optimism at 27-year low amid Brexit stockpiling | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Decline in sector mirrors falls across eurozone, Japan and China, say analysts
Graham Watson's insight:

Phillip Inman - John's boy - with a look at the state of UK manufacturing. It's not a pretty sight - and not just in the UK - with manufacturers plagued by uncertainty, and in the UK this is manifest in high levels of Brexit stockpiling. 

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Manufacturers stockpiling at record pace

Manufacturers stockpiling at record pace | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Firms prepared for Brexit by building up stockpiles of goods at a record pace last month, a survey suggests.
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest PMI data have been released and they show that the UK is growing more rapidly than the Eurozone but that another consequence of Brexit, stockpiling, might be the cause of this. 

 

As the Director of IHS observes: "stocks of inputs increased at the sharpest pace in the 27-year history". If 27 years counts as 'history'...

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How has business been affected by Brexit so far?

How has business been affected by Brexit so far? | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
With two months to go until the UK is due to leave the EU, how are firms and the UK economy faring?
Graham Watson's insight:

The BBC with a look at the impact of Brexit on British businesses. And guess what? At the moment, there's little clear evidence that jobs have 'moved' per se, but the financial sector has been coy about the relocating of both capital and jobs at the present time.

 

However, it is clear that investment has stagnated, and that where jobs have been created, such as in the civil service, thee jobs are adding less to output than jobs in the 'real' economy. 

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No-deal Brexit 'to leave shelves empty' warn retailers

No-deal Brexit 'to leave shelves empty' warn retailers | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Major retailers prepare to warn MPs a no-deal Brexit will cause major disruption to food supplies.
Graham Watson's insight:

Expect a stampede on the High Street any minute. Leading retailers are going to tell the government that a no-deal Brexit is going to cause major disruption to food supplies.

 

You can't make it up. Principally because you don't have to. Satire, it seems, is dead.

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Drug firm Novartis fears no-deal Brexit could put patients at risk | Business | The Guardian

Drug firm Novartis fears no-deal Brexit could put patients at risk | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Swiss company is stockpiling amid concerns about the supply and safety of medicines
Graham Watson's insight:

More Brexit. More uncertainty. More stockpiling.

 

"And so it goes". To use a literary reference.

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Why the GDP hit from UK lockdown 2.0 was smaller than expected | Business | The Guardian

Why the GDP hit from UK lockdown 2.0 was smaller than expected | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
More of the economy stayed open, Brexit talks boosted stockpiling and firms are developing some immunity to lockdowns
Graham Watson's insight:

Larry Elliott looks at why the November downturn has been smaller than expected: in short, the lockdown hasn't seen as many firms shutdown as in previous lockdowns and Brexit promoted stockpiling which helped offset some of the worse effects of lockdown.

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Government urges post-Brexit drug stockpiles

Government urges post-Brexit drug stockpiles | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Firms should have six weeks' worth of post-Brexit drug stockpiles by the end of 2020, the government says.
Graham Watson's insight:

Still, at least we can prepare for 2021 in optimistic fashion...ah, wait.

 

It seems that the government are asking pharmaceutical firms to have six weeks of post-Brexit drug stockpiles because it is adamant that there will be no extension to the transition period. I would hate for there to be another wave of coronavirus then; it would leave the government looking pretty foolish.

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Importers stockpile alcohol for Christmas to avoid Brexit drought | Business | The Guardian

Importers stockpile alcohol for Christmas to avoid Brexit drought | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Companies rush to bring forward deliveries of champagne, wine, beer and spirits in time for the festive period
Graham Watson's insight:

A very real cost of Brexit: a shortage of Christmas booze.

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Fall in car production hits UK growth

Fall in car production hits UK growth | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Car factory shutdowns designed to cope with disruption from Brexit meant the economy contracted in April.
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest growth figures suggest that the UK economy has shrunk, largely as a function of lower car production and an easing in stockpiling. It's the second month in a row that this has happened, and there are clearly more headwinds to come.

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UK economy rebounds in first quarter

UK economy rebounds in first quarter | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Brexit stockpiling by firms helps to lift UK growth in the first three months of the year.
Graham Watson's insight:

The UK economy has rebounded in the first quarter of this year, although there are concerns that recent growth is a function of Brexit stockpiling, rather than an expansion of the economy's productive capacity.

 

However, at the same time the trade deficit doubled - with purchases of gold - a safe haven in times of uncertainty playing a role in this.  

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Factories rush to stockpile for Brexit

Factories rush to stockpile for Brexit | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
The rate of stockpiling hit a record high for the third month in a row, says a closely watched survey.
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest PMI data for the manufacturing sector has seen a significant increase to 55.1 in March, from 52.1 in February.

 

However, before you think that is grounds for celebration, look at the underlying reasons that have driven this: most analysts are arguing that it has been a significant increase in Brexit uncertainty that has prompted firms to act in this way, something confirmed by the IHS Markit/CIPS data, which picks up a substantial rise in the amount of stockpiling going on. 

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UK retail sales up but food spending falls

UK retail sales up but food spending falls | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Sales at food stores in February saw the biggest fall since December 2016, official figures show.
Graham Watson's insight:

Retail sales are up, but food sales are down. Odd, to my mind. Does this suggest that  there's much in the way of stockpiling of essential foodstuffs? 

 

However, a 0.4% rise in retail sales isn't staggering. 

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UK construction activity falls amid Brexit uncertainty | Business | The Guardian

UK construction activity falls amid Brexit uncertainty | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Drop in building work for first time in almost a year as new projects are delayed
Graham Watson's insight:

The latest construction sector PMI dropped below 50, suggesting the sector is contracting as Brexit uncertainty starts to bite. Additionally, the extent of materials stockpiling has put pressure on transport, slowing and delaying some building projects.

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Brexit: Care home and hospital caterers stockpiling food

Brexit: Care home and hospital caterers stockpiling food | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Major suppliers Apetito and Bidfood say they are holding stock in case of disruption from a no-deal Brexit.
Graham Watson's insight:

More Brexit, more stockpiling. 

 

Yet another example of the opportunity cost of Brexit as we head off into this glorious post-EU, free trade future, destined to regain our rightful status as an economic superpower. Or not.

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Brexit: Unilever stockpiles Ben & Jerry's and Magnum ice creams

Brexit: Unilever stockpiles Ben & Jerry's and Magnum ice creams | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Unilever says it is holding extra inventory of the ice cream bars in case of supply chain disruption.
Graham Watson's insight:

More Brexit. More stockpiling.

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NHS trusts 'could run out of medical supplies' without Brexit deal | Society | The Guardian

NHS trusts 'could run out of medical supplies' without Brexit deal | Society | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Birmingham hospitals chief says he cannot envision patient safety being unaffected
Graham Watson's insight:

Nice to hear that the head of the local NHS foundation trust has such an optimistic view of the ability to get medical supplies after Brexit. 

 

Not that I'd planned on getting ill. 

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Brexit stockpiling by UK retailers and wholesalers reaching 2008 levels, says CBI | Business | The Guardian

Brexit stockpiling by UK retailers and wholesalers reaching 2008 levels, says CBI | Business | The Guardian | Macroeconomics: UK economy, IB Economics | Scoop.it
Survey, closely watched by Bank of England, finds ratio of stock to expected sales rising
Graham Watson's insight:

See the comments on my previous 'scoop'.

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