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Fund Managers Still See December As Most Likely Timing For Fed Tapering Despite Crisis In Washington

Fund Managers Still See December As Most Likely Timing For Fed Tapering Despite Crisis In Washington | Macroeconomics and foreign exchange | Scoop.it
The BofA Merrill Lynch rates and FX strategy team has just published the results of its October fund-manager survey, which contains an interesting observation: Investors still view the December FOMC meeting as the most likely timeframe in which the...

Via Thomas Faltin
Gucci's Gold Capital's insight:

This is interesting because it constrasts the article Casey scooped, which said Fed Tapering would happen in March. I think December might be too soon for us to ease up on Quantitative Easing. After the government shutdown cutting off the money flowing into the economy might be more stressful than it usually is.

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Martin Eden's curator insight, October 21, 2013 10:11 AM

The government kicked the can down the road, not fixed the problem.  As QE continues, some are fearful of what will happen when the FED begins to taper.  Most fund managers believe that this will happen sometime in December, just in time for the government to kick the can further.


Brian Walters

Macro Challenge's curator insight, October 21, 2013 6:35 PM

Public opinion is actually pretty divided over when the Fed will start the taper. Regardless, though, investors' expectations will probably affect their decisions and therefore have an impact on the economy.

 

-Katie

efjinn's curator insight, October 21, 2013 8:58 PM

-Lucas

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India to build $300 billion forex chest to counter a slimmer QE figure - Economic Times

India to build $300 billion forex chest to counter a slimmer QE figure - Economic Times | Macroeconomics and foreign exchange | Scoop.it
Economic Times
India to build $300 billion forex chest to counter a slimmer QE figure
Economic Times
“We expect forex reserves to be a little less than $300 billion with an upside,” he said.
Gucci's Gold Capital's insight:

Raphael-

I find it encouragin that India reports that tapering won't affect India drastically anymore. This means that tapering when it comes will not wreck our global economy as much as it might have in September. This is also an indication of a strengthening of the still weak rupee. It reached its undervalued low and has since climbed as India fixed its current account deficit, meaning profits aren't likely to be gathered on it at the moment since it should remain steady with the dolllar as opposed to falling. 

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US Dollar News: US Dollar strengthened on Federal Reserve's Outlook. - Forex News|Currency News|Daily Forex News Updates|Forexholder com

US Dollar News: US Dollar strengthened on Federal Reserve's Outlook. - Forex News|Currency News|Daily Forex News Updates|Forexholder com | Macroeconomics and foreign exchange | Scoop.it
US Dollar News: The US Dollar strengthened to reach at the level of ¥100 for the first time since July on assumption related to the signs of progress in the world’s largest economy will force the US FED to decrease its program of...

Via ForexHolder
Gucci's Gold Capital's insight:

Leo- 

 

We currently have an opening on the NZD/USD. This account is doing pretty well, for my standards anyway. It has gone up significantly and I am currently deciding whether imgoing to sell soon becasue of how much I've recently made. This articl supports that i should sell soon becasue the USD is strating to go up again.

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EUR/USD Aug. 29 – Sliding as Syria Tensions Escalate | Forex ...

EUR/USD Aug. 29 – Sliding as Syria Tensions Escalate | Forex ... | Macroeconomics and foreign exchange | Scoop.it
EUR/USD continues to lose ground, as markets jitters increase over a likely strike by the US against Syria. The pair crashed through the 1.33 line early on.
Gucci's Gold Capital's insight:

Interesting. Syrian war and QE uncertainty are causing the Euro to slump while boosting the Dollar.

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Forex - AUD/USD jumps after Australian data - Investing.com

Forex - AUD/USD jumps after Australian data - Investing.com | Macroeconomics and foreign exchange | Scoop.it
Forex - AUD/USD jumps after Australian data
Investing.com
Forex - AUD/USD jumps after Australian data. By Investing.com | Forex News | Oct 23, 2013 01:57AM GMT | Add a Comment. Investing.com. Article.
Gucci's Gold Capital's insight:

Raphael-

 

This article states that the AUD rose against the dollar but warned that this may be followed by lower trends, and will definitely followed by lower trends once QE tapering occurs. Maybe now is the time to short sell on currencies that will be affected by QE?

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FOREX-Dollar wobbles after U.S. job data cements Fed stimulus hopes

FOREX-Dollar wobbles after U.S. job data cements Fed stimulus hopes | Macroeconomics and foreign exchange | Scoop.it
* Euro/dollar near 2-year high after US payrolls datadisappoints* September job growth 148,000, below forecast of 180,000* Dollar index near this year's low* Aussie eyes CPI dataBy Hideyuki SanoTOKYO,...
Gucci's Gold Capital's insight:

The dollar has been "wobbly" as the article describes. It says this for two main reasons: unemployment (mainly poor job growth) and QE. The job growth was below expected for non-farm payrolls and economists overshot the actual number of new jobs gained by ~40 thousand. Another reason the dollar may have slumped is due to a poll by Reuters. Many believe QE will continue all the way through March, which many see as a sign of a still weak US economy.

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China's August commodities imports fall from highs but stay elevated

China's August commodities imports fall from highs but stay elevated | Macroeconomics and foreign exchange | Scoop.it
China's imports of crude oil, iron ore, copper and soybeans fell in August from July's record highs.
Gucci's Gold Capital's insight:

As we talked about  in class that QE might have negative impact on the brics it seems as though china has put itself in a very good place to continue trading and even though the imports have fallen in august they have increased dramatically since last yeat. it seems like QE tappering may not be a bad thing for china.

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