Gold and What Moves it.
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Gold and What Moves it.
Tracking all things that relate to and affect the price of gold.
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Charles Hugh Smith: The Global Endgame in Fourteen Points

Charles Hugh Smith: The Global Endgame in Fourteen Points | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
For those seeking a summary, here is the global endgame in fourteen points:
1. In the initial "boost phase" of credit expansion, credit-based capital ( i.e. debt-money) pours into expanding production and increasing productivity: new production facilities are built, new machine and software tools are purchased, etc. These investments greatly boost production of goods and services and are thus initially highly profitable. 2. As credit continues to expand, competitors can easily borrow the capital needed to push into every profitable sector. Expanding production leads to overcapacity, falling profit margins and stagnant wages across the entire economy. Resources (oil, copper, etc.) may command higher prices, raising the input costs of production and the price the consumer pays. These higher prices are negative in that they reduce disposable income while creating no added value. 3. As investing in material production yields diminishing returns, capital flows into financial speculation, i.e. financialization, which generates profits from rapidly expanding credit and leverage that is backed by either phantom collateral or claims against risky counterparties or future productivity.
In other words, financialization is untethered from the real economy of producing goods and services. ...
Hal's insight:

Click through for remaining points.

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Eric De Groot: Message Clear But Emotions Make It Difficult to Read

Emotions see the following in the gold market:

Falling priceFalling price generates fearFear sees price falling further.


Pessimism towards and outflows from gold are reaching extremes.  Everyone, including the great gold contrarians, can't find even a 'technical' reason for buying gold.  This setup screams emotional capitulation. ...

Hal's insight:

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China, Ghana gold production spike, others fall | MINING.com

by Vladimir Basov:

 

The top 10 gold producing countries mined out 1,799 tonnes of the precious metal which is 2% more than in 2011.

 

In 2012, the top 10 gold producing countries slightly increased their gold output.


According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) provisional data, estimated global gold production amounted to 2,659 tonnes in 2012, and was in line with 2011 totals (2,660 tonnes).


With updated data for China, announced by the China Gold Association after the USGS estimates became known, world gold output rose to 2,692 tonnes in 2012, or 1.2% growth compared to 2011. ...

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Pakistan launches first open-end Gold Fund

Pakistan launches first open-end Gold Fund | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Keeping the core value of convenience and affordability in mind, UBL Funds has announced account opening with just Rs. 10,000 with subsequent investments of as low as Rs. 1000 per month.

 

LAHORE(BullionStreet): Pakistan's leading asset management company, UBL Fund Managers launched country's first open-end Gold Fund, namely UBL Gold Fund.

 

This fund aims to offer its investors the benefit of investing and trading in paper gold without having to worry about security, purity or storage.

 

Keeping the core value of convenience and affordability in mind, UBL Funds has announced account opening with just Rs. 10,000 with subsequent investments of as low as Rs. 1000 per month. ...

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India buys 100 tons of Gold in January

In January 2012, India's gold imports fell 35 per cent year-on-year. Total gold imports last year dropped 11.25 per cent to 860 tonnes, partly a result of a previous tax hike.

 

NEW DELHI(BullionStreet): Amid strong government lead campaigns against gold imports, top gold consumer India bought 100 tons of gold in the first month of this year.

 

According to Bombay Bullion Association, India's gold imports surged 23 per cent to 100 tonnes in January as traders snapped up supplies ahead of a hike in duty by a government struggling to rein in its import bill.

 

BBA president Mohit Kamboji said so many people imported and dumped Gold after rumours from the first week of January of an import duty hike. People waited for the duty to increase and earn more profits. ...

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James Dines: Countries Are Now Printing Paper Without Limit—With Each New Piece To Chase Gold Higher | Bull Market Thinking

James Dines: Countries Are Now Printing Paper Without Limit—With Each New Piece To Chase Gold Higher | Bull Market Thinking | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

... In speaking to the shocking accuracy of his calls over the years, Mr. Dines explained that, “It’s important to understand history [in order] to predict the future. For example, everybody studies the 1930′s to understand the first great depression (we’re in the second one now), but you can’t learn what the cause of it is, by studying it. You need to go back to the 1920′s and realize what the source of it was. And the source of it was a conference that doubled the money supply to pay for WWI, which caused the boom of the 1920′s, and was then punished by the deflation of the 1930′s.”


Despite weak commodity prices in 2012, Mr. Dines’ biggest prediction for 2013 is a roaring comeback of inflation. He said, “What you don’t spend is your savings, that’s your capital. But when governments print too much paper, it dilutes your capital. It diminishes it and you lose. It’s expressed as higher prices. When more paper money chases the same goods and services, prices have to go up by the law of supply and demand. So I predict inflation ahead…How do you protect yourself from it?…The answer is to own hard assets, and that is what I call, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, maybe even land long-term—and especially coins, because you can move them.” ...

Hal's insight:

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The Currency War Is Not New: It's Merely Escalating | Michael Ashton | Safehaven.com

The Currency War Is Not New: It's Merely Escalating | Michael Ashton | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

A quick summary of where we are in the "global currency war:"

 

For several years now, global central banks have been engaging quietly in this war. Each central bank has been implicitly playing "beggar-thy-neighbor" by making its currency relatively plentiful, and therefore relatively cheaper, than its neighbors. In one case, that of Switzerland, the currency issue became explicit rather than implicit, though not to weaken its currency but rather to stop it from strengthening without bound (see Chart, source Bloomberg). It is instructive that, in order to accomplish this end, the SNB had to pledge to print unlimited quantities of Swiss Francs to sell - essentially saying that if it can't beat 'em, it would have to join 'em. ...

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Still Struggling With Silver Open Interest

Still Struggling With Silver Open Interest | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Maybe you can help me to make sense of these numbers?

 

I think you know that the current open interest situation has me perplexed. First of all in gold, since last Thursday, price has fallen by over $26 yet total OI has risen by over 6%, from 420,766 to 446,274. So, who is shorting so much that price is falling? Perhaps more importantly, who is on the other/buy side of those trades? Unfortunately, the deliberately opaque CoT will provide only a few clues.

 

But what really has me bugged is the OI of silver, specifically since late 2010. Why then? ...

Hal's insight:

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Gold To Explode As A Percentage Of Global Currency Reserves

Gold To Explode As A Percentage Of Global Currency Reserves | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb told King World News gold is going to soar as a percentage of global currency reserves.  He also believes the West will be left holding the bag when this drama is complete.  Here is what Leeb had to say:  “This aversion to gold in our country, and these latest regulations from Basel saying that gold cannot be part of a liquidity buffer, central planners are doing everything they can to keep gold from being acknowledged as a currency.”

 

“Obviously there would be an even bigger flight from the dollar and into gold right now if Basel had ruled the other way.  Imagine a world in which the US dollar is no longer the reserve currency.  That day is coming.  Under those conditions QE becomes tremendously difficult and interest rates explode....

Hal's insight:

It's coming. Sooner or later. Kind of like death and taxes. Only if you have some it'll be nicer for you.

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Central bank bigwigs offered course on how to manage all their gold | MINING.com

Central bank bigwigs offered course on how to manage all their gold | MINING.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

The World Gold Council is offering a three-day course this spring limited to executives at central banks and finance ministries on looking after their gold reserves.

 

According to the course description, participants will learn supply and demand, economic conditions and how asset prices impact gold in various currencies. Getting a handle on bullion may be useful, notes the brochure, since central banks now control one-fifth of the world's gold, currently running at US$1.7 trillion.

 

Cost is now $2,900 since early registration has passed. The course is being run jointly by the University of California, Berkeley and the World Gold Council. ...

Hal's insight:

This to me is the most laughable thing I've heard this week.

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Diamonds.net - Gold Jewelry Demand +4% to $103B in 2012

Diamonds.net - Gold Jewelry Demand +4% to $103B in 2012 | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

RAPAPORT... Global gold demand reached a record of $236.4 billion in 2012, up 2 percent year on year, according to the World Gold Council. The fourth quarter experienced the strongest performance as demand rose 6 percent to $66.2 billion, and that was also a record high for the quarter. The average price of gold during 2012 was $1,669 per ounce, up 6 percent from 2011.

 

Gold jewelry demand fell 3 percent year on year by weight, according to the group; however, the value of gold improved 4 percent to $102.6 billion. Gold demand by weight from India actually dropped 12 percent in 2012. But the World Gold Council observed a 41 percent increase in the final quarter of the year in part due to a surge in jewelry demand, up 35 percent and the highest level in six quarters. The prospect of duty increases, which came in to force in January 2013, likely added to gold buying in the fourth quarter, according to the trade group.

 

In China, gold demand by weight was flat in 2012, but jewelry demand inched up by 1 percent in the fourth quarter. ...

Hal's insight:

hat tip to https://twitter.com/MonetaAdvisors ;

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oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Don't Worry, Be Resilient

oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Don't Worry, Be Resilient | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

History offers few examples of major nations that prospered by borrowing vast sums for consumption and speculation. The same holds true for households.


At some point, absorbing more information about the unsustainability of modern society yields diminishing returns. It becomes emotionally draining and thus counterproductive. Part of this exhaustion results from recognizing our powerlessness within the Status Quo, where independent thinking and structural innovation are intentionally winnowed out as threats to existing institutions and industries. Another part arises from the burden of knowing that the supposedly permanent Status Quo is far more vulnerable than generally believed. I have described the psychology of knowing what lies ahead in The Burden of Knowing. A related factor that is never publicly discussed is the negative impact on our mental health of all the propaganda that we are force-fed by the Mainstream Media (MSM).  When truth is incrementally undermined by massaged data and behind-the-façade manipulation, we lose faith in key State and media institutions and suffer from a propaganda-induced disconnect between what we see and what is ...
Hal's insight:

Click through for the rest of Charles Smith's post.

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Felix Zulauf: World Headed Toward 1987 Style Market Collapse

Felix Zulauf: World Headed Toward 1987 Style Market Collapse | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Today renowned money manager Felix Zulauf told King World News that global stock markets are careening toward a 1987 style market collapse.  Stock markets plunged in 1987, and the world is at risk of that situation developing once again, according to Zulauf.  Zulauf, founder of Zulauf Asset Management and 20+ year Barron’s Roundtable panelist, also said gold will head to new all-time highs during the coming market chaos. 


This is the first of a three part written interview series that will be released on King World News today.  In these interviews the legendary money manager discusses why he believes central planners will fail, how this will lead to systemic collapse, gold repatriation, what investors should be doing with their money right now, how they can protect themselves going forward, and much more.

 Eric King:  “Felix, you’ve had a chance to look at how things evolve globally each year as we go through this cycle.  How do you see the end game playing out at this point?  How do you think this will end?  Meaning, if the world doesn’t solve its situation in a conventional manner, as you said earlier, will we see a greater degree of chaos than the world witnessed in late 1979, early 1980?”

 

Zulauf:  “At some point in time we have to get rid of the debt that we have.  Obviously central banks are trying to do that by financial repression.  The consensus among the investment community is that financial repression will work.  I’m not so sure.

 

Financial repression means that they put interest rates below the inflation rate, and by doing that the debt-to-GDP level of the different segments in an economy, the households, governments, etc., drops down over time.  Drops down to more reasonable and manageable levels.  I’m not sure that can be achieved. ...

Hal's insight:

Click through for the rest of the interview and stay tuned for the next two parts on www.kingworldnews.com 

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Zulauf: We May See A Shortage Of Gold & A Massive Price Spike

Zulauf: We May See A Shortage Of Gold & A Massive Price Spike | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Today renowned money manager Felix Zulauf told King World News, “These are manipulations like we have never seen.  Of course the printing of money comes in waves.”  Zulauf, founder of Zulauf Asset Management and 20+ year Barron’s Roundtable panelist, also spoke about Germany’s move to repatriate its gold, and the fact that countries are rapidly losing faith in London and the Fed as a place of storage because of suspicions the gold has already been leased out.  Zulauf warned, “... this could lead to a tremendous shortage of physical gold.”  Zulauf believes this would then create a massive spike in the price of gold.


This is part II of a three part written interview series that will be released on King World News today.  In these interviews the legendary money manager discusses why he believes central planners will fail, how this will lead to systemic collapse, gold repatriation, what investors should be doing with their money right now, how they can protect themselves going forward, and much more.


Eric King:  “Felix, gold repatriation, we’ve seen that trend.  There is a distrust of what’s taken place in London, and at the Fed.  Meaning the gold has been loaned out, leased out by the bullion banks.  It’s not in the vaults.  Countries are getting nervous and saying, ‘Give us our gold.’  This trend that’s happening (with gold repatriation), your thoughts on that?” 

 

Zulauf:  “At first it was reported that Germany’s Bundesbank repatriated half of their gold located outside of Germany.  Within seven weeks we learned it will be 1/5 of what is outside of Germany, and it will take 7 years.  The reason given was because of some swap and contract agreements, etc..  So obviously this tells you that part of the physical gold may be lent out and may not be there where it should be (at the Fed)....

Hal's insight:

click over for the rest of this interview on King World News. It's Part two of three.

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Gold market analysis 15 Feb 2013

Gold market analysis 15 Feb 2013 | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Bearish sentiment continues to build on the gold chart with the March contract now gathering momentum to the downside, helped along by the classic “death cross” technical signal which is now in place.

 

The death cross is the crossover between the 50 ma and the 200 ma, clearly signalled on the chart and also reinforcing the recent price resistance in the $1684 per ounce level.

 

In overnight and early trading on Globex the gold price has pushed lower still to trade at time of writing at $1622.50 per ounce, moving through the support level at $1627 of early January.  This bearish sentiment is also clearly evident across the other indicators, namely the heat map, selling volume in both our time frames, and both trends also echoing this negative view.

 

In addition, the market also posted an isolated pivot high on Wednesday at $1655 per ounce, which is adding further pressure to the downside. ...

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Gold slips further as Soros, Moore Capital sell gold ETFs. Paulson stands firm

Gold slips further as Soros, Moore Capital sell gold ETFs. Paulson stands firm | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

by Lawrence Williams

LONDON (MINEWEB) - 

 

Gold slipped back further as news emerged that Soros Fund Management and Moore Capital had both sold significant proportions of the gold ETF and Fund holdings during Q4 2012.  Some comfort for investors remained in that Paulson & Co (John Paulson’s investment vehicle) maintained its SPDR Gold Trust holding at 21.8 million shares – the fund’s largest investment.

 

But, Bloomberg reports, the Soros fund cut its SPDR holding 55% to 600,000 shares as of the year end, while Moore Capital is reported as liquidating its total SPDR holding and cutting its stake in the Sprott Physical Gold Trust.

 

These moves by billionaire investors Soros and Louis Moore Bacon may well unnerve the market further and there could be further slippage in the gold price to come over the next few days, and with China into its New Year holiday, which ends today, a buying boost from there is unlikely until next week ...

Hal's insight:

So they got out of their "paper gold". Well, that seems prudent. I wonder though if they got into the real gold? Seems like a great opportunity.

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Central banks Gold buying breaks 50 year record in 2012

Central banks Gold buying breaks 50 year record in 2012 | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
Central banks bought 534.6 metric tons of the precious metal last year, the most since 1964.

 

LONDON(BullionStreet): Global central banks bought more gold in 2012, in nearly five decades, as they sought to diversify reserves, the World Gold Council (WGC) said.

 

Central banks bought 534.6 metric tons of the precious metal last year – the most since 1964 – led by Russia, Brazil and Iraq.

 

Net purchases by central banks accounted for 12 percent of overall demand in 2012, compared with a 10 percent share in 2011. ...

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Government's Attempt to Solve Problems is the Problem - TrimTabs Money Blog

Government's Attempt to Solve Problems is the Problem - TrimTabs Money Blog | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
TrimTabs' Charles Biderman explains why he's not convinced the government is ill-equipped to fix the problems as stated in the State of the Union.

 

What I heard from the President’s State of the Union address was that he believes that the US government can successfully and efficiently and effectively solve our problems. What President Obama and his backers do not seem to understand is that big government is, in fact, the problem, not the solution.

 

So in his address he told us that the his government can save the climate, fix inequality of income and opportunity, take care of all of our health needs and ultimately guarantee that happy days will be here again. That is, if he were only given the power to do all these things.

 

And he is not alone in this mistaken belief that government can actually do all that. After all, he was elected to a second term. The problem is it is hard to find one service the federal government provides that is effective, other then writing checks. We have not won the federal wars on poverty, or drugs, nor overseas wars in Iraq, and Afghanistan.

 

So although governments have rarely successfully provided services, we have a government committed to doing just that. Moreover, millions of Americans obviously think governments can do what they never have done before because they keep electing officials who promise to provide even more services. ...

Hal's insight:

Click through for the video and the rest of his comments. I do agree. And it's not just the President who thinks this. It's pretty much the majority in DC.

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The Puke And The Whimper | The Daily Gold

The Puke And The Whimper | The Daily Gold | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Action in gold and the gold shares continues to be brutal.  But one thing that has really piqued my interest from a trading perspective was the high volume flushout in GDX back on January 25th.  That was the highest volume GDX has done to date and really looked like it was the type of volume that reeked of total fear and emotion taking over and bad decisions being made.  If you’ve followed charts for a while you’ll often see huge high volume days right at the bottom, when everyone wants to head for the exits at the same time.  It doesn’t necessarily mean the market is ready to rocket higher at that point, but often times it marks bottoms or very close to the bottom since sellers have finally capitulated.  It’s really kind of a cool thing to look at because the raw emotion is staring at you right in the face with the big red candle on high fear drenched volume.

I got further intrigued when I noticed a similar pattern in recent action in GDX to what happened back in July 2012, when GDX put in a bottom and started rocketing higher.  It’s possible I could come up ...

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Currency 'War' or 'Revolution'? | Julian D. W. Phillips | Safehaven.com

Currency 'War' or 'Revolution'? | Julian D. W. Phillips | Safehaven.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Talk of a Currency War is becoming much more frequent these days. What's meant by this is that the competitive devaluations of currencies, which has gone on for such a long time -many years in fact--is going to become destructive to real currency values! This brings into question the entire system of exchange rates.

Now we have the assurance that the euro will not be 'managed' down to gain a competitive advantage. Let's watch the rate to see if this is true? Actions speak louder than words, especially those of a politician.


Past Fixed Exchange Rates

Go back in history to the time when exchange rates were 'Fixed' under the Gold Standard. In those days they appeared to be valued against the price of gold, until the U.S. broke ranks by devaluing the dollar against gold from $20 per ounce of gold to $35 per ounce in 1935. At that time they did not devalue against other currencies, which did not devalue against gold. Arbitrageurs, dealers who bought in one market to sell in another, then bought gold in Europe for the equivalent of $20 and then sold it at $35 to the U.S., causing the U.S. to acquire 26,000+ tonnes of gold ahead of WWII and inflating their money supply way beyond what the impact of the confiscation of gold had two years prior to that. After the war, while the gold window was open, gold from Europe returned there at higher prices as war was no longer a threat.


'Floating' Exchange Rates

When the U.S. closed the gold window in 1971, exchange rates began to move from their fixed levels to those that reflected the trade and capital flows more accurately. ...

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Are Central Banks Still In Love With Gold?

Are Central Banks Still In Love With Gold? | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it
The recent price action of gold may lead some to believe the precious metal has fallen out of favor with the market, but central banks across the globe continue to love the safe-haven metal.
Hal's insight:

YES!

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#Russia & #China Know Final Currency Devaluation Is Coming

#Russia & #China Know Final Currency Devaluation Is Coming | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

Robert Fitzwilson tells King World News:

 

... The currencies that comprise the Dollar Index and the dollar itself are really part of the same team.  The components move around a bit to create excitement, but those countries and their currencies are joined at the financial hip.  We recently saw Japan appear to be getting out of line with Mr. Abe’s call for unlimited printing, but then subsequently saw an announcement that the yen had depreciated “enough”. 

 

This is all part of the pretend drama that the fiat currencies are engaged in a currency war.  If there is a war, it is the fiat group against gold and the yuan.  A wondering mind, however, might consider the possibility that the latest moves by Japan are really about rearmament given their growing tensions with China and North Korea.  An announcement of rearmament would be politically problematic.  Unlimited stimulus would provide the perfect politically correct cover for rearmament.  One can only ruminate on the possibilities.

 

Talk of currency wars continues to dominate the financial news.  Ghosts of the ‘30s and the “beggar thy neighbor” policies have been resurrected.  This is not about beggaring a neighbor this time around.  This is not about nationalistic policies to provide markets for goods and employment for citizens. ...

Hal's insight:

And this is why Russia and China are stocking up on gold.

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South Africa’s gold output down 21.2% in December - Mineweb

South Africa’s gold output down 21.2% in December - Mineweb | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

JOHANNESBURG (REUTERS)  - 

South Africa's gold output fell by 21.2 percent in volume terms in December, while total mineral production fell 7.5 percent compared with the same month last year, data showed on Thursday.

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World gold demand falls in 2012 for first time in three years | MINING.com

World gold demand falls in 2012 for first time in three years | MINING.com | Gold and What Moves it. | Scoop.it

World gold demand hit its lowest level since 2009 last year as India and China, the two main consumers of the precious metal, bought less jewellery and Western investment dropped.

 

According to the World Gold Council’s report published Thursday, Central banks and institutional investors stepped up their purchases of the precious metal by 17% last year but it wasn't enough to offset the decline.

 

The council said 4,405.5 metric tons were sold in 2012. That's down 176.8 metric tons, or 4%, from 4,582.3 metric tons in 2011. ...

Hal's insight:

Anyone else scratching their head over this report? I suppose it could be that people are running having to use their fiat for food and can't go into gold as much in the past. That and people may have been suckered into thinking the politicians and banksters saved the world.

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Gold Will Balance The Balance Sheet Of The Transgressors « Jim Sinclair's Mineset

From Jim Sinclair on gold today:


My Dear Friends,

 

Please do not be hoodwinked by these demonic sociopath bankster gold banks that, just like in 1979-1980 with the help of Trojan Horse gold writers, stole a huge amount of gold and gold shares from long term cash investors, leaving them without any insurance as the gold market made the highest price and covered the most dollars of appreciation over the shortest period of time.

 

In the 70s gold appreciated on the basis of what MIGHT happen. Gold is going to and through $3500 because of what has already happened already. Not one more problem by one more dollar is required for gold to attempt to move in price to balance the balance sheets here, there and everywhere. ...

Hal's insight:

Listen to Santa. 

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