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The Observatory of Economic Complexity

The Observatory of Economic Complexity | Edgar Analytics & Complex Systems | Scoop.it

We are the world's leading visualization engine for international trade data.

 

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/


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Agent based simulations visualize Adam Smith's invisible hand by solving Friedrich Hayek's Economic Calculus

Inspired by Adam Smith and Friedrich Hayek, many economists have postulated the existence of invisible forces that drive economic markets. These market forces interact in complex ways making it difficult to visualize or understand the interactions in every detail. Here I show how these forces can transcend a zero-sum game and become a win-win business interaction, thanks to emergent social synergies triggered by division of labor. Computer simulations with the model Sociodynamica show here the detailed dynamics underlying this phenomenon in a simple virtual economy. In these simulations, independent agents act in an economy exploiting and trading two different goods in a heterogeneous environment. All and each of the various forces and individuals were tracked continuously, allowing to unveil a synergistic effect on economic output produced by the division of labor between agents. Running simulations in a homogeneous environment, for example, eliminated all benefits of division of labor. The simulations showed that the synergies unleashed by division of labor arise if: Economies work in a heterogeneous environment; agents engage in complementary activities whose optimization processes diverge; agents have means to synchronize their activities. This insight, although trivial if viewed a posteriori, improve our understanding of the source and nature of synergies in real economic markets and might render economic and natural sciences more consilient.

 

Agent based simulations visualize Adam Smith's invisible hand by solving Friedrich Hayek's Economic Calculus
Klaus Jaffe

http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.04264 ;


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Identifying the structural discontinuities of human interactions

The idea of a hierarchical spatial organization of society lies at the core of seminal theories in human geography that have strongly influenced our understanding of social organization. In the same line, the recent availability of large-scale human mobility and communication data has offered novel quantitative insights hinting at a strong geographical confinement of human interactions within neighboring regions, extending to local levels within countries. However, models of human interaction largely ignore this effect. Here, we analyze several country-wide networks of telephone calls and uncover a systematic decrease of communication induced by borders which we identify as the missing variable in state-of-the-art models. Using this empirical evidence, we propose an alternative modeling framework that naturally stylize the damping effect of borders. We show that this new notion substantially improves the predictive power of widely used interaction models, thus increasing our ability to predict social activities and to plan the development of infrastructures across multiple scales.


Identifying the structural discontinuities of human interactions
Sebastian Grauwin, Michael Szell, Stanislav Sobolevsky, Philipp Hövel, Filippo Simini, Maarten Vanhoof, Zbigniew Smoreda, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, Carlo Ratti

http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.03149



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Complex networks: theory, methods and applications | Lake Como School of Advanced Studies

Complex networks: theory, methods and applications | Lake Como School of Advanced Studies | Edgar Analytics & Complex Systems | Scoop.it

Many real systems can be modeled as networks, where the elements of the system are nodes and interactions between elements are edges. An even larger set of systems can be modeled using dynamical processes on networks, which are in turn affected by the dynamics. Networks thus represent the backbone of many complex systems, and their theoretical and computational analysis makes it possible to gain insights into numerous applications. Networks permeate almost every conceivable discipline —including sociology, transportation, economics and finance, biology, and myriad others — and the study of “network science” has thus become a crucial component of modern scientific education.
The school “Complex Networks: Theory, Methods, and Applications” offers a succinct education in network science. It is open to all aspiring scholars in any area of science or engineering who wish to study networks of any kind (whether theoretical or applied), and it is especially addressed to doctoral students and young postdoctoral scholars. The aim of the school is to deepen into both theoretical developments and applications in targeted fields.

 

Complex networks: theory, methods and applications
Lake Como School of Advanced Studies

Villa del Grumello, Como, Italy, 16-20 May 2016

http://ntmb.lakecomoschool.org


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The Globe of Economic Complexity

The Globe of Economic Complexity | Edgar Analytics & Complex Systems | Scoop.it

Visualize $15 Trillion of World Exports

One dot equals $100M of exports

 

http://globe.cid.harvard.edu


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Luciano Lampi's curator insight, August 30, 2015 12:06 PM

Fantastic tool. Explore it.

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Fundamental limitations of network reconstruction

Network reconstruction helps us understand, diagnose and control complex networked systems by inferring properties of their interaction matrices, which characterize how nodes in the systems directly interact with each other. Despite a decade of extensive studies, network reconstruction remains an outstanding challenge. The fundamental limitations on which properties of the interaction matrix can be inferred from accessing the dynamics of individual nodes remain unknown. Here we characterize these fundamental limitations by deriving the necessary and sufficient condition to reconstruct any property of the interaction matrix. Counterintuitively, we prove that inferring less information ---such as the sign/connectivity pattern or the degree sequence--- does not make the network reconstruction problem easier than recovering the interaction matrix itself (i.e. the traditional parameter identification problem). Our analysis also reveals that using prior information of the interaction matrix ---such as bound on the edge-weights--- is the only way to circumvent these fundamental limitations of network reconstruction. This sheds light on designing new algorithms with practical improvements over parameter identification methods.

 

Fundamental limitations of network reconstruction
Marco Tulio Angulo, Jaime A. Moreno, Albert-László Barabási, Yang-Yu Liu

http://arxiv.org/abs/1508.03559


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Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems

Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems introduces students to mathematical/computational modeling and analysis developed in the emerging interdisciplinary field of Complex Systems Science. Complex systems are systems made of a large number of microscopic components interacting with each other in nontrivial ways. Many real-world systems can be understood as complex systems, where critically important information resides in the relationships between the parts and not necessarily within the parts themselves. This textbook offers an accessible yet technically-oriented introduction to the modeling and analysis of complex systems. The topics covered include: fundamentals of modeling, basics of dynamical systems, discrete-time models, continuous-time models, bifurcations, chaos, cellular automata, continuous field models, static networks, dynamic networks, and agent-based models. Most of these topics are discussed in two chapters, one focusing on computational modeling and the other on mathematical analysis. This unique approach provides a comprehensive view of related concepts and techniques, and allows readers and instructors to flexibly choose relevant materials based on their objectives and needs. Python sample codes are provided for each modeling example.

 

http://textbooks.opensuny.org/introduction-to-the-modeling-and-analysis-of-complex-systems/


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Evolution of Self-Organized Task Specialization in Robot Swarms

Many biological systems execute tasks by dividing them into finer sub-tasks first. This is seen for example in the advanced division of labor of social insects like ants, bees or termites. One of the unsolved mysteries in biology is how a blind process of Darwinian selection could have led to such highly complex forms of sociality. To answer this question, we used simulated teams of robots and artificially evolved them to achieve maximum performance in a foraging task. We find that, as in social insects, this favored controllers that caused the robots to display a self-organized division of labor in which the different robots automatically specialized into carrying out different subtasks in the group. Remarkably, such a division of labor could be achieved even if the robots were not told beforehand how the global task of retrieving items back to their base could best be divided into smaller subtasks. This is the first time that a self-organized division of labor mechanism could be evolved entirely de-novo. In addition, these findings shed significant new light on the question of how natural systems managed to evolve complex sociality and division of labor.

 

Ferrante E, Turgut AE, Duéñez-Guzmán E, Dorigo M, Wenseleers T (2015) Evolution of Self-Organized Task Specialization in Robot Swarms. PLoS Comput Biol 11(8): e1004273. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004273 ;


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The New Laws of Explosive Networks

The New Laws of Explosive Networks | Edgar Analytics & Complex Systems | Scoop.it

Researchers are uncovering the hidden laws that reveal how the Internet grows, how viruses spread, and how financial bubbles burst.

 

https://www.quantamagazine.org/20150714-explosive-percolation-networks/ ;


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Quantifying Controversy in Social Media

Which topics spark the most heated debates in social media? Identifying these topics is a first step towards creating systems which pierce echo chambers. In this paper, we perform the first systematic methodological study of controversy detection using social-media network structure and content.
Unlike previous work, rather than identifying controversy in a single hand-picked topic and use domain-specific knowledge, we focus on comparing topics in any domain. Our approach to quantifying controversy is a graph-based three-stage pipeline, which involves (i) building a conversation graph about a topic, which represents alignment of opinion among users; (ii) partitioning the conversation graph to identify potential sides of controversy; and (iii) measuring the amount of controversy from characteristics of the graph.
We perform an extensive comparison of controversy measures, as well as graph building approaches and data sources. We use both controversial and non-controversial topics on Twitter, as well as other external datasets. We find that our new random-walk-based measure outperforms existing ones in capturing the intuitive notion of controversy, and show that content features are vastly less helpful in this task.

 

Quantifying Controversy in Social Media
Kiran Garimella, Gianmarco De Francisci Morales, Aristides Gionis, Michael Mathioudakis

http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.05224


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Entropy, Information and Complexity or Which Aims the Arrow of Time?

In this article, we analyze the interrelationships among such notions as entropy, information, complexity, order and chaos and show using the theory of categories how to generalize the second law of thermodynamics as a law of increasing generalized entropy or a general law of complification. This law could be applied to any system with morphisms, including all of our universe and its subsystems. We discuss how such a general law and other laws of nature drive the evolution of the universe, including physicochemical and biological evolutions. In addition, we determine eliminating selection in physicochemical evolution as an extremely simplified prototype of natural selection. Laws of nature do not allow complexity and entropy to reach maximal values by generating structures. One could consider them as a kind of “breeder” of such selection.

 

Entropy, Information and Complexity or Which Aims the Arrow of Time?
George E. Mikhailovsky  and Alexander P. Levich

Entropy 2015, 17(7), 4863-4890; http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e17074863 ;


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Where Next for Genetics and Genomics?

Where Next for Genetics and Genomics? | Edgar Analytics & Complex Systems | Scoop.it
The Diverse Applications of GenomicsCracking Open NatureFunctional Genome Annotation and In Silico BiologyGenetics, Bioethics, and Equivalency of RiskComplex Genetics: Anticipating a Billion Human Genome SequencesMiniaturized Genomic MonitoringPersonalized Genomics: Towards a Proactive ModelPopulation Genetics: More Traits, More Populations, and More Species

Tyler-Smith C, Yang H, Landweber LF, Dunham I, Knoppers BM, Donnelly P, et al. (2015) Where Next for Genetics and Genomics? PLoS Biol 13(7): e1002216. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1002216


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The curse of instability

Here, it is proposed that thinking on a different level is required to understand, what really triggers or removes this barrier. Just counting “dimensions” or “variables” is insufficient. The true intrinsic curse we are facing is the curse of instability. In fact, we argue below that instabilities (a) cause an increase in dimensionality, (b) substantially raise the analytical difficulty, and (c) are a strong indicator for multiscale dynamical complexity. Of course, it turns out that (a)–(c) are intimately related. Although we shall primarily illustrate the concepts with examples arising in mathematics and closely related disciplines, it will be shown that the abstract concept occurs, independently, across disciplines. In fact, we shall see that the curse of instability has already implicitly triggered the emergence of entirely new scientific disciplines. Furthermore, it may lead to formulate more concrete guiding principles to address the complexity challenges of the 21st century.

 

The curse of instability
Christian Kuehn

Complexity
Volume 20, Issue 6, pages 9–14, July/August 2015

http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cplx.21703


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Network Science Institute @Northeastern

Network Science Institute @Northeastern | Edgar Analytics & Complex Systems | Scoop.it

The Network Science Institute was born out of our commitment to explore universality and predictability of systems to discover their function and develop intervention strategies to improve the health and security of human populations. The Institute is a highly collaborative and interdisciplinary lab space driven by the need to integrate models, theories and problem solving approaches across disciplines in research and education.

 

http://networkscienceinstitute.org 


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Extended Inclusive Fitness Theory bridges Economics and Biology through a common understanding of Social Synergy

Inclusive Fitness Theory (IFT) was proposed half a century ago by W.D. Hamilton to explain the emergence and maintenance of cooperation between individuals that allows the existence of society. Contemporary evolutionary ecology identified several factors that increase inclusive fitness, in addition to kin-selection, such as assortation or homophily, and social synergies triggered by cooperation. Here we propose an Extend Inclusive Fitness Theory (EIFT) that includes in the fitness calculation all direct and indirect benefits an agent obtains by its own actions, and through interactions with kin and with genetically unrelated individuals. This formulation focuses on the sustainable cost/benefit threshold ratio of cooperation and on the probability of agents sharing mutually compatible memes or genes. This broader description of the nature of social dynamics allows to compare the evolution of cooperation among kin and non-kin, intra- and inter-specific cooperation, co-evolution, the emergence of symbioses, of social synergies, and the emergence of division of labor. EIFT promotes interdisciplinary cross fertilization of ideas by allowing to describe the role for division of labor in the emergence of social synergies, providing an integrated framework for the study of both, biological evolution of social behavior and economic market dynamics.

 

Extended Inclusive Fitness Theory bridges Economics and Biology through a common understanding of Social Synergy
Klaus Jaffe

http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.02745


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International Workshop on Nonlinearity, Nonequilibrium and Complexity: Questions and perspectives in Statistical Physics.

International Workshop on Nonlinearity, Nonequilibrium and Complexity: Questions and perspectives in Statistical Physics. | Edgar Analytics & Complex Systems | Scoop.it

The workshop is aimed at discussing a few chosen contemporary developments in statistical physics. Topics include problems in condensed matter and dynamical systems (pattern structures, granular matter, glass formation, turbulence, marginal chaos, etc.); and also current applications outside of traditional fields in physics (in biology, ecology, sociology, economy, seismology and other geophysical, astrophysical phenomena, complexity in urban developments, complexity in linguistics, literature and arts, etc.). There would be an examination of equilibrium and nonequilibrium theories, and of the current efforts in generalizing statistical mechanical structures and methods. We would like to emphasize that our aim is to make the meeting the occasion for a memorable scientific discussion that can be carried out comfortably in an intimate environment.

 

International Workshop on Nonlinearity, Nonequilibrium and Complexity: Questions and perspectives in Statistical Physics. This is an event in honor of Prof. Alberto Robledo's 70th birthday.

Mexico City, Mexico

2015-11-29:12-04

https://sites.google.com/site/robledo70b/ ;


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Civilization Far From Equilibrium - Energy, Complexity, and Human Survival

Human societies use complexity -- within their institutions and technologies -- to address their various problems, and they need high-quality energy to create and sustain this complexity. But now greater complexity is producing diminishing returns in wellbeing, while the energetic cost of key sources of energy is rising fast. Simultaneously, humankind's problems are becoming vastly harder, which requires societies to deliver yet more complexity and thus consume yet more energy. Resolving this paradox is the central challenge of the 21st century. Thomas Homer-Dixon holds the CIGI Chair of Global Systems at the Balsillie School of International Affairs in Waterloo, Canada, and is a Professor at the University of Waterloo.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Vf-y3mv57U


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Creativity and ALife

Three forms of creativity are exemplified in biology and studied in ALife. Combinational creativity exists as the first step in genetic algorithms. Exploratory creativity is seen in models using cellular automata or evolutionary programs. Transformational creativity can result from evolutionary programming. Even radically novel forms can do so, given input from outside the program itself. Transformational creativity appears also in reaction-diffusion models of morphogenesis. That there are limits to biological creativity is suggested by ALife work bearing on instances of biological impossibility.

 

Creativity and ALife
Margaret A. Boden

Artificial Life

Summer 2015, Vol. 21, No. 3, Pages 354-365
http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/ARTL_a_00176 


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The joy of transient chaos

The joy of transient chaos | Edgar Analytics & Complex Systems | Scoop.it

We intend to show that transient chaos is a very appealing, but still not widely appreciated, subfield of nonlinear dynamics. Besides flashing its basic properties and giving a brief overview of the many applications, a few recent transient-chaos-related subjects are introduced in some detail. These include the dynamics of decision making, dispersion, and sedimentation of volcanic ash, doubly transient chaos of undriven autonomous mechanical systems, and a dynamical systems approach to energy absorption or explosion.

 

The joy of transient chaos   

Tamás Tél

Chaos 25, 097619 (2015)

http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4917287 ;


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Mapping Systemic Risk: Critical Degree and Failures Distribution in Financial Networks

Mapping Systemic Risk: Critical Degree and Failures Distribution in Financial Networks | Edgar Analytics & Complex Systems | Scoop.it
The financial crisis illustrated the need for a functional understanding of systemic risk in strongly interconnected financial structures. Dynamic processes on complex networks being intrinsically difficult to model analytically, most recent studies of this problem have relied on numerical simulations. Here we report analytical results in a network model of interbank lending based on directly relevant financial parameters, such as interest rates and leverage ratios. We obtain a closed-form formula for the “critical degree” (the number of creditors per bank below which an individual shock can propagate throughout the network), and relate failures distributions to network topologies, in particular scalefree ones. Our criterion for the onset of contagion turns out to be isomorphic to the condition for cooperation to evolve on graphs and social networks, as recently formulated in evolutionary game theory. This remarkable connection supports recent calls for a methodological rapprochement between finance and ecology.

 

Smerlak M, Stoll B, Gupta A, Magdanz JS (2015) Mapping Systemic Risk: Critical Degree and Failures Distribution in Financial Networks. PLoS ONE 10(7): e0130948. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0130948 ;


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malek's comment, August 13, 2015 10:23 AM
though provoking, wonder why we coin financial risk with moral hazards?
pdeppisch's comment, August 13, 2015 12:40 PM
Because cheating / pulling a fast one is what financial services is all about: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2010/01/mortgage-sharks-foreclosing Loan Sharks!
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Field theory of molecular cooperators

It has been suggested that major transitions in evolution require the emergence of novelties, often associated to the cooperative behaviour of previously existing objects or agents. A key innovation involves the first cooperative interactions among molecules in a prebiotic biosphere. One of the simplest scenarios includes two molecular species capable of helping each other forming a catalytic loop or hypercycle. The second order kinetics of the hypercycle implies a hyperbolic growth dynamics, capable of overcoming some selection barriers associated to non-cooperative molecular systems. Moreover, it has been suggested that molecular replicators might have benefited from a limited diffusion associated to their attachment to surfaces: evolution and escape from extinction might have been tied to living on a surface. In this paper we propose a field theoretical model of the hypercycle involving reaction and diffusion through the use of a many-body Hamiltonian. This treatment allows a characterisation of the spatially correlated dynamics of the system, where the critical dimension is found to be d_c=2. We discuss the role of surface dynamics as a selective advantage for the system's survival.

 

Field theory of molecular cooperators
Jordi Piñero, Ricard Solé

http://arxiv.org/abs/1508.01422 ;


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The success of complex networks at criticality

In spiking neural networks an action potential could in principle trigger subsequent spikes in the neighbourhood of the initial neuron. A successful spike is that which trigger subsequent spikes giving rise to cascading behaviour within the system. In this study we introduce a metric to assess the success of spikes emitted by integrate-and-fire neurons arranged in complex topologies and whose collective behaviour is undergoing a phase transition that is identified by neuronal avalanches that become clusters of activation whose distribution of sizes can be approximated by a power-law. In numerical simulations we report that scale-free networks with the small-world property is the structure in which neurons possess more successful spikes. As well, we conclude both analytically and in numerical simulations that fully-connected networks are structures in which neurons perform worse. Additionally, we study how the small-world property affects spiking behaviour and its success in scale-free networks.

 

The success of complex networks at criticality
Victor Hernandez-Urbina, Tom L. Underwood, J. Michael Herrmann

http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.07884


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Exploring Temporal Networks with Greedy Walks

Temporal networks come with a wide variety of heterogeneities, from burstiness of event sequences to correlations between timingsof node and link activations. In this paper, we set to explore the latter by using greedy walks as probes of temporal network structure. Given a temporal network (a sequence of contacts), greedy walks proceed from node to node by always following the first available contact. Because of this, their structure is particularly sensitive to temporal-topological patterns involving repeated contacts between sets of nodes. This becomes evident in their small coverage per step as compared to a temporal reference model -- in empirical temporal networks, greedy walks often get stuck within small sets of nodes because of correlated contact patterns. While this may also happen in static networks that have pronounced community structure, the use of the temporal reference model takes the underlying static network structure out of the equation and indicates that there is a purely temporal reason for the observations. Further analysis of the structure of greedy walks indicates that burst trains, sequences of repeated contacts between node pairs, are the dominant factor. However, there are larger patterns too, as shown with non-backtracking greedy walks. We proceed further to study the entropy rates of greedy walks, and show that the sequences of visited nodes are more structured and predictable in original data as compared to temporally uncorrelated references. Taken together, these results indicate a richness of correlated temporal-topological patterns in temporal networks.

 

Exploring Temporal Networks with Greedy Walks
Jari Saramaki, Petter Holme

http://arxiv.org/abs/1508.00693


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Network science: Destruction perfected

Pinpointing the nodes whose removal most effectively disrupts a network has become a lot easier with the development of an efficient algorithm. Potential applications might include cybersecurity and disease control. 

 

Network science: Destruction perfected
• István A. Kovács & Albert-László Barabási

Nature 524, 38–39 (06 August 2015) http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/524038a ;


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The boom in mini stomachs, brains, breasts, kidneys and more

The boom in mini stomachs, brains, breasts, kidneys and more | Edgar Analytics & Complex Systems | Scoop.it

Biologists are building banks of 'organoids', and learning a lot about human development on the way.

 

http://www.nature.com/news/the-boom-in-mini-stomachs-brains-breasts-kidneys-and-more-1.18064 ;


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