Economics in Education
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Rescooped by Bruce Fellowes from Macroeconomics: UK economy Pre-U Economics
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Interest rates will stay low for 20 years, says Bank of England expert | Business | The Guardian

Interest rates will stay low for 20 years, says Bank of England expert | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Outgoing MPC member Ian McCafferty predicts rates below 5% and wages up 4%

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Graham Watson's curator insight, August 10, 11:30 AM

Ian McCafferty, an outgoing member of the MPC has been vocal in the last week, perhaps a little bit giddy at his impending release. However, he's of the view that interest rates will be "significantly" below the 5% average in the run-up to the financial crisis, and that wage growth in inevitably going to rise to around 4%.

 

It's a recapitulation of some of the material that's been released earlier in the week, but fleshed out a bit and it will be interesting to whether it comes to pass. 

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In another financial crisis we would have far less wiggle room | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian

In another financial crisis we would have far less wiggle room | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
After the 2008 meltdown, there is limited scope for monetary policy, nations are divided and populism is on the rise

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Graham Watson's curator insight, August 5, 9:07 AM

Larry Elliott's in pessimistic mood in today's Observer, suggesting that we wont have the policy instruments available to deal with any possible future financial crisis.

 

He see four main constraints on the policy environment: a lack of wiggle room in monetary and fiscal policy, and less chance of international co-operation too. Factor in the rise of populism and you could be forgiven for thinking that we're doomed.  

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How would a no-deal or hard Brexit affect Jaguar Land Rover? | Business | The Guardian

How would a no-deal or hard Brexit affect Jaguar Land Rover? | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Disruption caused by tariff and non-tariff barriers could cost the car industry £7.5bn a year

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Graham Watson's curator insight, July 6, 3:35 AM

This is an excellent article highlighting the impact of Brexit on Jaguar Land Rover - in a straightforward fashion. It is a must-read in my view.

 

And some of my classes are likely to see it in one form or other. Next year! Hurrah for the holidays...

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No-deal Brexit 'could ground aircraft'

No-deal Brexit 'could ground aircraft' | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
If the UK leaves the EU with no deal then aircraft with UK-made parts might be grounded, a trade body warns.

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Graham Watson's curator insight, July 5, 9:01 AM

Another consequence of Brexit? Might it ground aircraft with UK-made parts. That strikes me as a little bit far-fetched personally.

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Brexit uncertainty and British business – BBC Newsnight

Helen Thomas reports from Birkenhead and Belfast on how businesses like Survitec are dealing with the uncertainty around Brexit.


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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 28, 2:53 AM

Six minutes of Newsnight - not a bad thing, that highlights the impact of business uncertainty generated by Brexit. The choice of business, Survitec, allows lots of Brexit metaphors but the clip is none the worse for this.

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Brexit: Car investment slumps as 'uncertainty bites'

Brexit: Car investment slumps as 'uncertainty bites' | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Britain's car industry says uncertainty is "thwarting" the plans of some of Britain's biggest employers.

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 26, 2:16 AM

More Brexit uncertainty - this time manifest in lower levels of investment in the car industry. What Jeremy Hunt must think of people quoting accurate data is anyone's guess.

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A softer Brexit is a better Brexit | The Economist

The Brexit vote took place two years ago. But when Britons voted to leave the EU they had no say in what sort of Brexit they wanted. It has become clear that a softer Brexit is better, and Britain need only look to Norway to see why.


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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 22, 2:51 AM

The Economist nails its colours to the mast regarding Brexit. This five minute clip looks at the Norway option, suggesting that a "softer Brexit is a bigger Brexit".

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August interest rate rise moves step closer

August interest rate rise moves step closer | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The Bank keeps rates at 0.5%, but chief economist Andrew Haldane joins those backing an increase.

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 21, 10:54 AM

The latest interest rate decision keeps rates on hold, but suggests that they are likely to rise in August. The 6-3 split in the MPC has seen an increase in those who want rates to rise, and thus the direction of future travel seems to have been flagged up by the Committee.

 

Forward guidance of a sort, I guess.

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Bank of England wants 'folk wisdom' to break group think

Bank of England wants 'folk wisdom' to break group think | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Fears that central bankers operate in a bubble and are out of touch with the real economy have prompted the Bank of England to seek more “folk wisdom” from ordinary people.

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 17, 2:58 AM

Quick heads up for Andy Haldane - read this Scoop It board!

 

That's "folk wisdom" for you....

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Why US rates have a global impact

Why US rates have a global impact | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
A sea change in US policy is having repercussions around the world.

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 13, 11:40 AM

Just a fascinating article about why an increase in US interest rates is likely to lead to a raft of consequences: a weakening of emerging economy currencies, as well as some of the domestic implications for expenditure.

 

However, is Jerome Powell correct in suggesting that the impact of US interest rates is overstated?

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The EU’s problem is the same as Britain’s: austerity | Business | The Guardian

The EU’s problem is the same as Britain’s: austerity | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The addiction to economic pain is shared by Brussels and by Tories who see in Brexit a renewed ‘Thatcher revolution’

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 4, 4:48 AM

William Keegan's Brexit-tinted glasses look at how Brexit and the EU have become the fall guys for austerity, arguing that the real ideological basis of the Leave campaign is Thatcherite economics and not a fear of immigration. An interesting read, but I wonder whether this is actually the case, or more of a 'conspiracy theory'? 

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Spoiler alert: Bank of England's hints of May rate rise are not subtle | Business | The Guardian

Spoiler alert: Bank of England's hints of May rate rise are not subtle | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Ratesetters point to interest increase that appears almost certain unless growth stalls

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Graham Watson's curator insight, March 22, 4:50 PM
Larry Elliott on the latest MPC minutes. Pity it wasn't Phillip Inman - John's boy. "Going up!"
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May’s Brexit will block ports and cripple business. Time to stop pretending | Jonathan Lis | Opinion | The Guardian

May’s Brexit will block ports and cripple business. Time to stop pretending | Jonathan Lis | Opinion | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Tailbacks of up to 30 miles and rotting food do not pass Theresa May’s Brexit tests, says Jonathan Lis, of thinktank British Influence
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Rescooped by Bruce Fellowes from Macroeconomics: UK economy Pre-U Economics
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Business confidence falls amid Brexit uncertainty – surveys | Business | The Guardian

Business confidence falls amid Brexit uncertainty – surveys | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
One of two polls finds 55% of UK board members predict business decline in next year

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Graham Watson's curator insight, August 6, 9:20 AM

Surprise, surprise...

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Liam Fox: No deal most likely Brexit outcome for UK

Liam Fox: No deal most likely Brexit outcome for UK | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
No 10 insists it can get a good deal for the UK, after Liam Fox says chances of a no-deal are 60%.

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Graham Watson's curator insight, August 5, 8:45 AM

I can't help thinking that the 'chickens are coming home to roost' - as Brexiteers meet reality. 

 

And Jacob Rees-Mogg lurks in the background. 

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Jaguar Land Rover boss: Brexit threatens £80bn UK investment

Jaguar Land Rover boss: Brexit threatens £80bn UK investment | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The UK's biggest car maker warns it may have to close factories in the event of a "bad" Brexit deal.

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Graham Watson's curator insight, July 5, 9:03 AM

And yet more Brexit: this time Jaguar Land Rover stress that a 'bad' Brexit deal could have adverse consequences for them, for their British plants and the economy more generally.

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May to float third Brexit customs model at Chequers meeting | Politics | The Guardian

May to float third Brexit customs model at Chequers meeting | Politics | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
PM expected to ask ministers to choose between Norway-style partnership and Canada-style trade deal

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Graham Watson's curator insight, July 2, 12:42 PM

Good luck with this, Prime Miinster. 

 

Just remember that the word "compromise" means a solution that satisfies nobody. 

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Foreign businesses to UK: solve Brexit or risk £100bn in trade | Politics | The Guardian

Foreign businesses to UK: solve Brexit or risk £100bn in trade | Politics | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Firms from US, Canada, Japan and India lobby UK to avoid disorderly EU exit

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 26, 2:21 AM

How dare they?

 

Well, sometimes the truth hurts.

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Philip Hammond hands Bank of England new powers | Business | The Guardian

Philip Hammond hands Bank of England new powers | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Bank will have extra £500bn to provide to economy as Britain prepares for Brexit

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 22, 3:06 AM

A slight change in the Bank of England's remit - not productivity targets but a Brexit pot designed to help prepare for Brexit.

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Brexit: Business Secretary Greg Clark warns on services

Brexit: Business Secretary Greg Clark warns on services | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Business Secretary Greg Clark insists that UK services must be part of any Brexit deal with the EU.

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 22, 2:48 AM

More on the various difficulties of negotiating a Brexit deal, its possible costs and the importance of services to the UK economy. And just a hint that the government might not be entirely united on many of the issues.

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Eurozone braces for row with Greece over bailout exit terms | Business | The Guardian

Eurozone braces for row with Greece over bailout exit terms | Business | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Concerns likely that country will suffer fourth collapse unless EU writes off some debt

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 18, 11:44 AM

Greece. Still in crisis. And facing a fourth collapse unless the EU writes off some debt.

 

Proof that you can continue to kick the can along the road, in the knowledge that although the road has to end somewhere, it can occasionally be an exceptionally long road.

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Federal Reserve raises interest rates

Federal Reserve raises interest rates | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
The US central bank has increased its benchmark rate by 0.25%.

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 13, 3:46 PM

US interest rates have gone up by 250 basis points, taking rates to 1.75% - 2.00%, their highest level in a decade. As has been 'scooped' elsewhere, this will have a variety of effects and represents a return to somewhere near normality for the US economy. How long until the UK experiences the same? 

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The best thing Germany could do for Europe is quit the single currency – but it won’t | Larry Elliott | Opinion | The Guardian

The best thing Germany could do for Europe is quit the single currency – but it won’t | Larry Elliott | Opinion | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
EU leaders are saddled with a mechanism that doesn’t work. There are ways to fix that, but not the will, writes Guardian staff columnist Larry Elliott

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Graham Watson's curator insight, June 6, 3:56 PM

Larry Elliott has been in brilliant form recently: this article is a top-drawer analysis of the state of the Euro, and dare I say it Parkinsonian. I say this, because many years ago, a former colleague discussed at great length why it would make sense for Germany to leave the Euro, and raised the possibility of a two-speed Euro. Hat-tip to 'absent friends and Parky". 

 

However, Larry Elliott's piece goes beyond this to look at why the prospect of Germany leaving the Euro is highly unlikely, if only politically. 

 

It is an excellent piece of writing for those of you interested in some stretch and challenge material.

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'We have been hijacked': fishermen feel used over Brexit | Politics | The Guardian

'We have been hijacked': fishermen feel used over Brexit | Politics | The Guardian | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
As the reality of leaving the EU takes shape, UK fishermen are bleak about their industry’s future

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Graham Watson's curator insight, March 24, 3:14 AM
The Guardian reports on the fact that the UK fishing industry feels betrayed over the nature of the UK's Brexit transition deal. The industry feels that the UK government haven't protected its interests and that the period of transition will see EU fishermen getting preferential access to UK waters, to the extent that many in the sector are already considering leaving it. It makes for depressing reading. 

I guess that the only consolation, as a Remain voter, is that I suspect that many fishermen were Leave voters: in which case, be careful what you wish for. 
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Bank of England warns on mortgage risk as interest rates rise

Bank of England warns on mortgage risk as interest rates rise | Economics in Education | Scoop.it
Banks have been warned that British homeowners' giant mortgages may be affordable now, but could get them into trouble as interest rates rise.
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