Economics
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Developing models for policy analysis in central banks

pedro romano's insight:
Hysteresis, Fiscal multipliers, financial shocks, heterogeneity, agent base modeling and economics forecasting processes. The ECB's view on the new exciting stuff coming out from the academia. 
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Entrevista.

Entrevista. | Economics | Scoop.it
O que pode um apelido contar-nos sobre mobilidade social? Muito, conclui o economista escocês Gregory Clark, que vem a Lisboa falar sobre os resultados desconcertantes do estudo de centenas de milhões de apelidos ao longo de cinco séculos
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Interview of Gregory Clark. Must read.
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The productivity slowdown is even more puzzling than you think | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

The productivity slowdown is even more puzzling than you think | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal | Economics | Scoop.it
The growth in labour productivity – real output per hour worked – in the US slowed markedly around 2004. During the previous ten years, labour productivity in the business sector had risen at an annual average pace of more than 3%. Productivity received a boost from innovations in the production of digital information and communications technologies (ICT) and the spreading use of ICT across all sectors of the economy.
pedro romano's insight:
Productivity growth has been underestimated lately. But the productivity slowdown paradox is still there. Why?
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Why the US government can’t be downsized | Larry Summers

Why the US government can’t be downsized | Larry Summers | Economics | Scoop.it
pedro romano's insight:
Governments are doomed to grow.
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Electoral gender quotas fail to empower women | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Electoral gender quotas fail to empower women | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal | Economics | Scoop.it
In spite of the progress that has been made in the last decades in terms of female labour force participation and educational attainment, women are still largely underrepresented in political institutions. Among EU countries, women account for only 27% of MPs and 12% of prime ministers. To address the scarcity of women in politics, ten EU countries have adopted gender quotas in recent years that regulate the composition of electoral lists. Furthermore, in 13 other EU countries, gender quotas have been adopted voluntarily by some of the main political parties.
pedro romano's insight:
Gender quotas change something. But the substance of politics doesn't seem to be one of those changes. 
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Against high CEO pay

Against high CEO pay | Economics | Scoop.it
Imagine we lived in a feudal society in which lords exploited peasants. A defender of the system might argue that wealthy lords perform a useful service; they protect their peasants from invasion and theft thus giving them security an
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It has nothing to do with free markets.
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How Wall Street Gets Rich Off Savers

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Are high fees really paying off? Or is it just a zero-sum game?
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Missing growth | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Missing growth | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal | Economics | Scoop.it
Robert Gordon (2012) argues that the age of great innovations has passed and that the innovation process has run into diminishing returns, leading to an irreversible slowing of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Will the future of our economy really be dominated by secular stagnation? And what is behind the recent slowdown in measured productivity growth?
pedro romano's insight:
Missing growth due to the CPI bias. Sadly, it doesnt explain the 2000's slowdown.
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Mobility and growth in top and bottom incomes | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Mobility and growth in top and bottom incomes | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal | Economics | Scoop.it
Trends in average incomes at different points in the income distribution have become the subject of considerable popular and policy interest. At the top end of the income distribution, the work of Anthony Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, and their collaborators has drawn attention to trends in average incomes of the top 10% and 1% of the distribution (Atkinson and Piketty 2010, Atkinson et al. 2011).
pedro romano's insight:
Top 10%'s income is growing above average, but there are very serious compositional effects at play.
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Minimum Wage and Job Loss: One Alarming Seattle Study Is Not the Last Word

Minimum Wage and Job Loss: One Alarming Seattle Study Is Not the Last Word | Economics | Scoop.it
Big job losses are shown after an increase to $13 an hour, but a wider look at evidence suggests it’s not time for sweeping conclusions.
pedro romano's insight:
What if the Washington University's study is wrong? Nice article.
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Italian economic growth and the Euro | Bruegel

Italian economic growth and the Euro | Bruegel | Economics | Scoop.it
While the Euro has frequently been blamed for the poor growth performance of Italy over the years, a long-term analysis shows deteriorating growth before the introduction of the Euro. Additionally, Italy has shown worse performance than other euro-periphery countries, such as Spain, implying deeper structural reasons for Italy’s economic malaise.
pedro romano's insight:
Was it the euro? Nope. Very good macro analysis.
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Is Productivity Growth Becoming Irrelevant?

Is Productivity Growth Becoming Irrelevant? | Economics | Scoop.it
As the Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow noted in 1987, computers are “everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” Since then, the so-called productivity paradox has become ever more striking. Automation has eliminated many jobs. Robots and artificial intelligence now seem to promise (or threaten) yet more radical change. Yet productivity growth has slowed across the advanced economies; in Britain, labor is no more productive today than it was in 2007.
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So Many Critics of Economics Miss What It Gets Right

So Many Critics of Economics Miss What It Gets Right | Economics | Scoop.it
The standard takedown has some merit. But the recent focus on hard data instead of theories is making a big difference.
pedro romano's insight:
Economics is no longer what it used to be.
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Sizing Up QE Now That It's Ended

Sizing Up QE Now That It's Ended | Economics | Scoop.it
pedro romano's insight:
What did QE ever do for us?
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Kinship, cooperation, and culture | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Kinship, cooperation, and culture | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal | Economics | Scoop.it
Social dilemmas – situations that are characterised by a conflict between collective and individual interests – are pervasive. Whether in the context of free-riding on others, cheating on taxes, stealing, selling a damaged product, or behaving aggressively, socially beneficial outcomes often require people to refrain from pursuing their self-interest for the benefit of others, or to benefit society as a whole. Because the general problem of cooperation is so pervasive, it has been called “the fundamental problem of human existence” (Greene 2014).
pedro romano's insight:
Look at a map of kinship. It does look like a GDP per capita map. 
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Intellectual Property Laws: Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing -

Intellectual Property Laws: Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing - | Economics | Scoop.it
The excesses of IP law are now a serious obstacle to innovation and economic growth.     In the rogues’ gallery of regulatory rent-seeking, copyright and patent laws are the wolves in sheep’s clothing. According to the ingenious and highly effective rhetoric of their beneficiaries and supporters, these laws are the very antithesis of rent-seeking. Far from conferring special and undeserved privileges, they merely defend the rightful owners of “intellectual property” from “theft” and “piracy.” While rent-seeking misallocates resources and retards growth, intellectual property advocates claim that patent and copyright protections unleash artistic creativity and technological innovation by securing for …
pedro romano's insight:
That’s right: most patent infringement suits are now brought by firms that make no products at all and whose chief activity is to prevent other companies from making products
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Getting People to Get Along, Even When They Disagree

Getting People to Get Along, Even When They Disagree | Economics | Scoop.it
Discussing good books with peers who often disagree with you can promote tolerance and comity.
pedro romano's insight:
What can we do about it? One simple way to fix things.
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America's Superstar Companies Are a Drag on Growth

America's Superstar Companies Are a Drag on Growth | Economics | Scoop.it
pedro romano's insight:
Four papers point to the same conclusion.
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Populism and trust in Europe | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Populism and trust in Europe | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal | Economics | Scoop.it
Recent years have seen surging support for populist parties and policies across the advanced countries. Anti-elite sentiment, nationalism, opposition to globalisation, and scepticism about supranational institutions are challenging the international economic order that emerged from World War II. The same scepticism and, in some places, outright hostility is evident in attitudes towards the European Union. Does this mean that the EU is at risk of disintegration?
pedro romano's insight:
Economic conditions didn't spur votes in populist parties. Lack of trust in national parliaments seems to be the main driver. Brexit was an outlier.
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Cultural change and intergenerational transmission | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal

Cultural change and intergenerational transmission | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal | Economics | Scoop.it
Fifty years ago, the Cultural Revolution in China was in full swing. China’s leader, Mao Zedong, wanted to eradicate all ‘bourgeois thinking’ and forced people to ‘remodel their world view’. In practice, this led to decade-long chaos. Parts of the government and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) were paralysed, millions of cadres were demoted and denounced in mass trials. Competing groups of Red Guards fought each other.
pedro romano's insight:
Chinese people who were denied high-school education changed the way they thought in dramatic ways.
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Old Ideas About Foreign Trade Are Being Retired

Old Ideas About Foreign Trade Are Being Retired | Economics | Scoop.it
New research shows that countries don't necessarily do best when they specialize in making a few things.
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A new way of long term forecasting. 
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Structural Unemployment: Yes, It Was Humbug

Structural Unemployment: Yes, It Was Humbug | Economics | Scoop.it
But nobody ever admits being wrong about anything.
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Yes, it was structural. 
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Let's Set Half a Percent as the Standard for Statistical Significance

Let's Set Half a Percent as the Standard for Statistical Significance | Economics | Scoop.it
My many-times-over coauthor Dan Benjamin is the lead author on a very
interesting short paper "Redefine Statistical Significance." He gathered
luminaries from many disciplines to jointly advocate a tightening of the
standards for using the words "statistically significant"
pedro romano's insight:
0.5% would be nice, because within this range most (but not all) experimental economics' results can be replicated.
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Is Productivity Growth Becoming Irrelevant?

Is Productivity Growth Becoming Irrelevant? | Economics | Scoop.it
As the Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow noted in 1987, computers are “everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” Since then, the so-called productivity paradox has become ever more striking. Automation has eliminated many jobs. Robots and artificial intelligence now seem to promise (or threaten) yet more radical change. Yet productivity growth has slowed across the advanced economies; in Britain, labor is no more productive today than it was in 2007.
pedro romano's insight:
Zero-sum economic activities and the baumol disease. 
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Can temporary affirmative action policies have lasting effects?

Can temporary affirmative action policies have lasting effects? | Economics | Scoop.it
Hiring regulations can lead to fundamental changes in how employers recruit
pedro romano's insight:
When regulations are no longer there, the new behaviours stay in place. Very interesting. 
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