Demographic Futures
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Demographic Futures
Trends & signals affecting the future evolution of populations (fertility, ageing, migrations...)
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Forecasting Displacement: A Brand New Effort Using Big Data

Forecasting Displacement: A Brand New Effort Using Big Data | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

Early warning has been the holy grail of the humanitarian community for decades. How can you predict how and when and where people will move when a conflict or disaster or famine occurs?

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‘The Other Population Crisis’

‘The Other Population Crisis’ | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it
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One of the rare mentions of "The Other Population Crisis" - population decline.

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A Tale of Four Pyramids

A Tale of Four Pyramids | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it
by Carl Haub, senior demographer, PRB There has been quite a bit made in the media and in blogs about low birth rates in industrialized countries. Quite correctly, many people (and countries!) are ...
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America's Baby Bust

America's Baby Bust | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

In the face of this decline, the only thing that will preserve America's place in the world is if all Americans—Democrats, Republicans, Hispanics, blacks, whites, Jews, Christians and atheists—decide to have more babies.

Marguerite Grandjean's insight:

Jonathan V Last is an excellent demonstration of why policy-makers, the media and charities should be more careful about their overwhelming call for fertility reduction. The essay points both to population policy tips and to deeper motivations for having babies.

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Reversing Population Decline: Germany's New Immigrant Influx - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Reversing Population Decline: Germany's New Immigrant Influx - SPIEGEL ONLINE | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it
Marguerite Grandjean's insight:

This trend has only been for 3 years, but it points to a more serious question: How will immigration evolve in European countries with declining birth rates? Will rising immigration levels cancel off declining fertility? Beyond the numbers, the answer depends on migratory policies and economic trends on the short term, and on socio-cultural forces in the longer run - which applies to both host and origin countries. There are also questions around who are the people who immigrate and emigrate. 

One thing is almost certain: As always in demography, there will be no (or little) general pattern across countries. 

 

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Damon Recagno's curator insight, October 13, 2017 11:27 AM

This article relates to the topic of Cities Methods for Tackling a Declining Natural Growth Rate because it looks at Germany, a country whos on the right track to reversing its population decline. Germany is successfully managing to reverse its declining population thanks to an influx of individuals who want to make Germany their home. On average the immigrants coming to the country are younger then the locals and have helped to balance out the declining natural growth rate that the country was facing. In class it was discussed how important immigration is to developed countries who are not producing enough babies as a result of their mind sets and social norms. Germany has learned from said countries and is slowly reversing its low population and replacement rates by applying what has worked for other locations around the world.  

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The population conundrum - FT.com

The population conundrum - FT.com | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

An FT analysis shows that perhaps the most significant driver of those equity returns was something else entirely: demography.

Data from the 2010 edition of the Equity-Gilt study, and updated to 2012, shows a clear correlation between the percentage of the UK population aged 35 to 54 – considered a prime age group for pension savings – as a percentage of the total population and that of price/earnings (p/e) ratios of UK equities.

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Beer: The Perfect Illustration of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus? | New Security Beat

Beer: The Perfect Illustration of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus? | New Security Beat | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

The difference between the UN’s high and low projections for mid-century world population is 2.5 billion people, and climate change will have a large impact on arable land and growing patterns, but scientists still aren’t clear to what degree and where exactly. There’s a great deal of uncertainty in both climate and population projections, which means our decisions regarding them (healthcare, women’s empowerment, consumption patterns for population; carbon reduction and mitigation/adaptation strategies for climate change) matter a great deal.

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CNN: Seven billion? No need to panic

CNN: Seven billion? No need to panic | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

If the newest members of Planet Earth’s Club of Seven Billion are inclined to worry, should they be concerned that mankind’s burgeoning population may bring on a world of war and ceaseless strife? In a word, no.

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Iran Is Reversing Its Population Policy | New Security Beat

Iran Is Reversing Its Population Policy | New Security Beat | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

Once again, the Iranian government is reversing its population policy

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Damon Recagno's curator insight, October 13, 2017 12:18 PM

This article relates to my topic because it takes a look at Iran, a country whos birth rate were extremely low as a result of the political leaders enforcing various laws and restrictions. However, quite recently Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called women to procreate and have more children because of Iran's rapidly aging population. However, there are some who believe that this motion was done in order to keep Iranian women at home seeing how as of quite recently they are able to peruse higher education. Prior to this movement passed by the supreme leader, Iran's births dropped from 8.1 to 2.1 in the span of one generation within the country (Wilson Center Staff 2012). This is the equivalent of what was experienced in Europe over a 300 year time period. As discussed in class, with fertility being a driving force behind a locations natural increase rate it comes to no surprise that a country like Iran would take political measures to insure that the aging population of the country dose not go unaddressed. In the global north this measure may seem a little much however, Iran has in the past made political decisions to alter population trends which have worked. Only time will tell if the rules enforced will in fact make a difference in reversing Iran's aging population pyramid.   

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Wilson Center: Population Projections: Breaking Down the Assumptions

Wilson Center: Population Projections: Breaking Down the Assumptions | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

Assumptions in the methodology behind the projections create uncertainty. Carl Haub, senior demographer at the Population Reference Bureau, Hania Zlotnik, former director of the UN Population Division, and Rachel Nugent of the University of Washington’s Department of Global Health convened on June 5 to speak about the assumptions behind the UN population projections.

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Census Bureau Releases Estimates of Undercount and Overcount in the 2010 Census

Census Bureau Releases Estimates of Undercount and Overcount in the 2010 Census | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

The U.S. Census Bureau released today results from its post-enumeration survey, providing a measure of the accuracy of the 2010 Census. The results found that the 2010 Census had a net overcount of 0.01 percent, meaning about 36,000 people were overcounted in the census. This sample-based result, however, was not statistically different from zero.

 

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Russia: decline and fall - FT.com

Russia: decline and fall - FT.com | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

The end of communism in Russia and the economic chaos that engulfed the country in the 1990s, led to a sharp slide in birth rates and a surge in death rates

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What Can Governments Do About Falling Birth Rates?

What Can Governments Do About Falling Birth Rates? | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it
Marguerite Grandjean's insight:

Fallen death rates need to be celebrated! But dealing with excessively ageing population under high government budget pressure has become a new priority. "A "beginning of a study and not an end."

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Damon Recagno's curator insight, October 11, 2017 4:48 PM

This site relates to the topic of Cities & Countries Methods for Tackling a Declining Natural Growth Rate because it explains why and how birth rates are falling and continue to fall and what cities can do to increase said birth rates. A reduction in birth rates has a direct impact on the natural growth rate because without births there is no growth. The authors of What Can Governments Do About Falling Birth Rates? mention that as a result of countries improved access to healthcare, declining poverty rates, education improvements, increased opportunities for individuals (primarily that of females) and changing mindsets all contribute to a lesser number of babies born annually. Currently an estimated 48% of the worlds population lives in countries where women are having children at rates well below that of replacement (Achenbach & Jackson 2014). As societies continue to progress this number will only increase. To realistically boost fertility rates, governments have to make it possible for women to reconcile work and family. Programs would need to be set in place which are not monetary programs but social programs. Things like daycare and strong early education help children assimilate into society and give mothers the confidence that they can return to work when they want. One Example from the site is that of France who has successfully increased its fertility rate from 1.74 to 2.08. This was achieved in part from financial support for larger families, subsidized prenatal care and delivery, and the right for women to have 12-week maternity leave (Achenbach & Jackson 2014). This site holds lots of relevance in terms of its similarity to the discussions had in class. In class we talked about how the natural growth rate is in fact decreasing and for what reasons. It was also discussed that there are 5 stages of the demographic transition model in which we are in the fifth stage also known as the "decline" stage.  This site mentions similar points and arguments but also offers possible solutions that have been implemented by countries such as France.

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10 projections for the global population in 2050

10 projections for the global population in 2050 | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it
Marguerite Grandjean's insight:

Great visualization of global population trends to 2050. National trends and comparisons between nations are particularly telling. For example, Russia could lose 16% of its population by 2050, and Nigeria could surpass the US as the third most populous country.

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Why the left is wrong about immigration

Why the left is wrong about immigration | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it
Mass immigration is damaging to social democracy, argues David Goodhart in his controversial new book – it erodes our national solidarity.
Marguerite Grandjean's insight:

The founder of Prospect and Demos makes a worthy contribution to the age-old debate over immigration, which has been growing recently in developed countries in relation to ageing.

However, the argument (as well as the interesting readers' comments) fails to consider the diverse and changing nature of immigration. One quote to ponder on: 

"Even in the US or Australia, immigrants now maintain much closer ties to their country of birth than they did for most of the last century. The lower cost of communication and transportation makes it possible to work in one country for a significant length of time without becoming a citizen or putting down permanent roots. The diminution of the institution of “regular workers” with lifetime jobs is conducive to an increase in foreign temporary or guest worker employment. This form of employment may become the new face of immigration worldwide in the 21st century." (Reiko Aoki, Population and Development Review, February 2013) 

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A demographic shift in the Muslim world

A demographic shift in the Muslim world | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

"The Arab countries are now struggling with what Eberstadt calls their “youthquake.” But the coming dilemma, he notes, is “how these societies will meet the needs of their graying populations on relatively low income levels."

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Do Economists Have Frequent Sex? by Martha Campbell and Malcolm Potts

Do Economists Have Frequent Sex? by Martha Campbell and Malcolm Potts | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

It is almost as if the demographic transition model has some divine power that must never be questioned.

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Joel Cohen on Why Students Should Consider Demography | New Security Beat

Joel Cohen on Why Students Should Consider Demography | New Security Beat | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

Great title. Great educational concept (The Floating University).

But once again, this fails to consider the diversity of the "bathtub" elements in different world regions. Japan's ageing, Niger's getting younger; where will the 10 billion live?

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CGDev - Overpopulated? Aging? - Interview with John F. May concerning the demographic future of the planet

CGDev - Overpopulated? Aging? - Interview with John F. May concerning the demographic future of the planet | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

As Alfred Sauvy used to say, there is not a single global population, but various populations facing very different situations that are divided among some 240 countries and geographic entities. Currently, 16% of the world population lives in countries where fertility is high (more than 4 children per woman); 38% lives in countries where the fertility level is between 4 and 2.1 children per woman; and, finally, the rest, or 46%, experiences fertility below the generation replacement level (the famous 2.1). So here we have two opposite phenomena – strong population growth and rapid aging, even depopulation –that are occurring simultaneously in various parts of the world.

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New Security Beat | The Beginning of a History: Advanced Aging and the Liberalness of Democracies

New Security Beat | The Beginning of a History: Advanced Aging and the Liberalness of Democracies | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it

How powerful is advanced population aging?—powerful enough to place at risk the liberal content of Europe’s democratic regimes? In this essay I’ll argue that it could.

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New Security Beat | The Missing Links in the Demographic Dividend

New Security Beat | The Missing Links in the Demographic Dividend | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it
The “ demographic dividend ,” a concept that marries population dynamics and development economics, ...
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Will-to-live and survival in a 10-year follow-up among older people

The will-to-live is a strong predictor for survival among older people.

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Graying workforce: more older workers, fewer young ones

Graying workforce: more older workers, fewer young ones | Demographic Futures | Scoop.it
If Junior can’t get a job, blame Grandpa.
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