Decision Intelligence
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A tribute to thinking, fast and slow

A tribute to thinking, fast and slow | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Thinking, Fast and Slow was a global bestseller, and had a profound impact on psychology and economics, as these tributes from other leading figures show
Lorien Pratt's insight:

What a lovely tribute to Daniel Kahneman from some of the great thinkers of our time: Steve Pinker, Richard Thaler, Nassim Taleb, and more.


Kahneman's work is also deeply important to Decision Intelligence, because we'll never automate / systematize the thousands of decisions we make every day, so they're subject to cognitive bias.  Understanding those biases, deeply, is therefore important. 


In addition, arguably the "slow" part of thinking (System 2) is what decision intelligence is trying to do more rigorously for many use cases, because these use cases are being handled today  suboptimally, by the "fast" part (System 1).


Kahneman is the master of this space.  I highly recommend Thinking, Fast, and Slow: http://amzn.to/1bbdQs7 .

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Decision Intelligence
AI/BI/CI/DI: Decision intelligence (DI) solves the world's most complex problems.   It connects human decision makers to technologies like machine learning, AI, deep learning, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaE, http://www.lorienpratt.com, and the Decision Intelligence group: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.   Also, my company offers DI and machine learning consulting services.  See http://bit.ly/1X8O2zF to learn more. Would you like to receive the DI News in email? Click here to sign up: http://bit.ly/29wYd1u
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Senate Intelligence Briefing features AI and Decision Advantage

Senate Intelligence Briefing features AI and Decision Advantage | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

General Ashley: “There is a key piece of this…which is how do you operationalize it….a WWII example: the fact that there were planes, radios, and tanks, was not unique to the Germans in WWII…they came up with an operational concept that allowed them to leverage that…[I asked Peter Singer]… as you look at the things that are emerging… what do you see in the way of a breakthrough that would give somebody a really marked advantage…. [Singer said it’s not that I see something that gives someone a marked advantage..].. It’s who’s able to harness it, who’s able to operationalize it, and put it to effect.Click here to edit the content

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Must-watch video, for many reasons: We are seeing DI validated every day.  Here's the latest: the language is Decision Advantage, but the goal is the same: understanding how to operationalize data using AI, machine learning, and other tech to lead not just to insights, but to actions that achieve outcomes.

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Fake news is still a problem. Is AI the solution?

Fake news is still a problem. Is AI the solution? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Experts say AI systems would help fill the gaps left by Snopes, Truth or Fiction, and other online fact-checking outlets, whose human fact-checkers lack the bandwidth to evaluate every article that appears online. These systems could also work with various fake news alert plugins available from Google’s web store, such as the browser extension This is Fake, which uses a red banner to flag debunked news stories on your Facebook newsfeed.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

The answer is "yes". Four additions:

1) This problem is analogous to spam detection, for which AI is improving accuracy over time

2) This will always be an arms race, with fake-news-generators constantly developing new tricks.  For this reason, the AIs will never be perfect

3) For the above reason, we should never expect fake-news AI to be perfect.  Instead, it should sort news into "definitely true", "definitely fake" and "not sure" and include humans in the lop for the last category.

4) As humans label the "not sure" items, and those labels are fed back into a machine learning system, it will get better over time.  So the human tags are part of the "good guy" side of the arms race.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, February 18, 5:07 PM

The answer is "yes". Four additions:

1) This problem is analogous to spam detection, for which AI is improving accuracy over time

2) This will always be an arms race, with fake-news-generators constantly developing new tricks.  For this reason, the AIs will never be perfect

3) For the above reason, we should never expect fake-news AI to be perfect.  Instead, it should sort news into "definitely true", "definitely fake" and "not sure" and include humans in the lop for the last category.

4) As humans label the "not sure" items, and those labels are fed back into a machine learning system, it will get better over time.  So the human tags are part of the "good guy" side of the arms race.

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How Do You Vote? 50 Million Google Images Give a Clue

How Do You Vote? 50 Million Google Images Give a Clue | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Text has been easier for A.I. to handle, because words have discrete characters — 26 letters, in the case of English. That makes it much closer to the natural language of computers than the freehand chaos of imagery. But image recognition technology, much of it developed by major technology companies, has improved greatly in recent years.

The Stanford project gives a glimpse at the potential. By pulling the vehicles’ makes, models and years from the images, and then linking that information with other data sources, the project was able to predict factors like pollution and voting patterns at the neighborhood level.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

I've just recently seen this start to emerge for a number of clients: the use of image data in addition to text data as a source for machine learning.  An important new direction.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, February 10, 12:54 AM

Machine learning from image information for political canvassing in addition to the text that's used today has powerful implications.  Is it an invasion of privacy or a beneficial source of information to optimize activities?  Or a little of both?

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Forbes: Throw Out The Rule Book To Improve Customer Experience

Forbes: Throw Out The Rule Book To Improve Customer Experience | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

““Data alone is chocolate, not chocolate cake. It’s just one ingredient: necessary but not sufficient to obtain business value from many data sources,” said Pratt, chief scientist and co-founder of the software company Quantellia. “Machine learning, artificial intelligence and decision intelligence are needed to extract the full value from investments in big data.”

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Because you should use a chocolate metaphor whenever possible.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, February 10, 12:01 AM

Although this Forbes article is from the commercial world, it's even more relevant in politics, where simple rules for contacting constituents quickly become obsolete, and machine learning to automatically create those rules is becoming more and more important.

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Spark Actions Doesn't Just Give You the News – It Shows You Exactly How to Act on It, Too

Spark Actions Doesn't Just Give You the News – It Shows You Exactly How to Act on It, Too | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Ultimately, though, Spark Actions is looking to make creating change more accessible, and less of a scary ordeal. "With everything going on in someone's life, often times political engagement or activism falls to the bottom of the to-do list. It often pops up if something urgent happens in the news. . . it becomes top of mind for a few minutes, and then fades away," Rockmore said. "What we want do with Spark Actions is give you a place where being able to engage doesn't feel like work; instead, it feels not only like it's rewarding, but that it is actually moving the needle and enabling an individual or a group of people to make real change in our country at a time when there's a lot of uncertainty."
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Understand the impact of actions is core to DI, and there's an increasing focus on actions - as opposed to just ideas -  within politics.  Spark Actions is a good example of this technology.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, January 23, 2:58 AM

Moving from ideas that stay on social media...to actions that happen in the world.  Spark Actions is a great service.

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Why Humble People Make Better Decisions

Why Humble People Make Better Decisions | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"Have you ever noticed how we say that beliefs are something you “hold”? According to new research out of Duke University, the grip you keep on your ideas shapes the way you approach the world. How tightly (or not) you cling to your own opinions is called “intellectual humility” (IH), and it could have a big effect on the decisions you make."


Via Philippe Vallat
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Intellectual humility is the degree to which people recognize that their beliefs might be wrong...and people high in intellectual humility were more attuned to the strength of persuasive arguments than those who were low.  This is part of the "framing" needed for good decision intelligence including voting decisions.

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, June 16, 2017 8:53 AM

Worth reading in times of "alternative facts"

Lorien Pratt's curator insight, January 21, 7:36 PM

Intellectual humility is the degree to which people recognize that their beliefs might be wrong...and people high in intellectual humility were more attuned to the strength of persuasive arguments than those who were low.  This is part of the "framing" needed for good decision intelligence including voting decisions.

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Correlation CAN Imply Causation!

Correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation, but it can.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

My garbage disposal broke recently.  The repairman fixed it, and along the way, noticed coffee grounds in the drain.  He said "don't do that!  It'll make your disposal clog!  I always see coffee grounds when I repair them." 

 

What's wrong with his answer? 

 

This video is the best and clearest explanation I've ever seen. Part of the answer: causal networks.   Without an understanding of them, it's impossible to know how the world works.

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2018: Rebuilding Our Civilizations from Source

2018: Rebuilding Our Civilizations from Source | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"... If Trump is only the symptom, what is the real problem? The real problem is that we lack an educational or learning system that activates our deeper capacities for vertical development. That new core process of learning, I believe, starts with cultivating the self, with activating our deeper creative capacities."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A brilliant articulation of a vision of 2018 new growth from the creative destruction of 2017.  Sharma's vision is closely aligned with decision intelligence: his presencing is what we realize practically through a shift from auditory/sequential to visual /spatial/motor thinking: allowing us to tap a much deeper cognition, including subrational and systems analysis.

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Girls discover a massive blind spot in how we think about evidence, business, and reality. Then they fix it.

Girls discover a massive blind spot in how we think about evidence, business, and reality. Then they fix it. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"We positioned ourselves as Girlapproved: a growth prediction and design firm for global enterprises. To the public we were known as the group that sold new intelligence and global growth blueprints designed to tap into what girls/women/females really want. In reality, we were a stealth lab exploring if "feelings" were a lost dimension of objective sensations - data that could help us understand reality better."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

I rarely make the time to watch an hour long video; tonight was the exception.  In this tour de force, Dangelmaier unifies quantum physics, the vastly underappreciated work of David Bohm, agency theory, something very close to DI, and cheerleader uniform design.  Really.

 

It's rare that a visionary has their feet on the ground, and vice versa.

 

Along with her international team of girl artists, Dangelmaier has co-discovered what I've found in my decision modeling work (and covered in my last TEDx), which is that without the "pink links", modern complex systems models simply don't work.  She's invented a methodology and language for design in this new space.  Well worth a watch!

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pdeppisch's comment, February 27, 2017 10:29 AM
Thank you for this! Really, really appreciated!!!!!!!
Nadine Hack's curator insight, March 3, 2017 3:34 AM
Compelling re value of girls pursuing STEM interests
Heidi Dangelmaier's curator insight, December 28, 2017 8:26 PM
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Has media reached a reality/complexity tipping point?

Has media reached a reality/complexity tipping point? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"A landmark paper appeared last December in the National Science Review (summary).  It describes the complex interdependencies between climate, consumption, population, demographics, inequality, economic growth, migration, and more. ...Now, consider Bill and Melinda Gates’ recent reaffirmation that democracy needs media to survive.

If the purpose of media is to help us understand things, and media doesn’t get complex systems, then what’s the consequence?  Have text and audio and data visualization reached their limits?"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Maybe there's a deeper problem.

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The mind-blowing AI announcement from Google that you probably missed

The mind-blowing AI announcement from Google that you probably missed | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"Let’s say we train a multilingual system with Japanese⇄English and Korean⇄English examples. Our multilingual system, with the same size as a single GNMT system, shares its parameters to translate between these four different language pairs. This sharing enables the system to transfer the “translation knowledge” from one language pair to the others. This transfer learning and the need to translate between multiple languages forces the system to better use its modeling power."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

One-shot learning is in many ways the holy grail for AI.  And google announced a big one-shot win last year using transfer that you might have missed. (I'm happy I was able to be part of the team that helped to start inductive transfer.)

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Beautiful Complex Systems

"We all dance to a mysterious tune, intoned in the distance by an invisible piper.” ― Albert Einstein Music: Ryan Taubert - Absolution

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Some audio and visuals to balance your diet of text...

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The Data That Turned the World Upside Down

The Data That Turned the World Upside Down | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Psychologist Michal Kosinski developed a method to analyze people in minute detail based on their Facebook activity. Did a similar tool help propel Donald Trump to victory?
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Probably the most important article this year.  We must all understand what Cambridge Analytica did. Please read, friends.

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Fact-Checking a Facebook Executive’s Comments on Russian Interference - The New York Times

Fact-Checking a Facebook Executive’s Comments on Russian Interference - The New York Times | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
"After initially dismissing concerns that it influenced the 2016 election, Facebook has announced a series of moves to prevent its future misuse. One of those steps includes verifying political advertisers through a system that combines automated and human fact checkers. The company has also said it plans to use postcards sent by regular mail to verify the identities of American political advertisers. "
Lorien Pratt's insight:
point by point analysis of Facebook vp's statements regarding its role in election meddling.
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Raytheon Cyber: Every Side of Cyber

Raytheon Cyber: Every Side of Cyber | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
When everything is connected, security is everything. That’s why Raytheon delivers solutions that protect every side of cyber for government agencies, businesses and nations. Protecting the most critical information, systems and operations with breakthrough solutions — to make the world a safer place.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Nice to see Raytheon using Quantellia's logo :-)  It's everywhere.

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AI Sales Enablement for a Smoother Buyer Journey

AI Sales Enablement for a Smoother Buyer Journey | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
In short, an AI-based sales enablement tool is a multifunctional asset to any sales team. It takes over routine work, freeing up reps’ time. It simplifies data management, ensuring that reps don’t have to search through a lot of extraneous information to get what they need. And it can help teams reach their full potential by guiding their sales conversations and training them in effective selling techniques.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

AI is becoming increasingly important in sales. This article by my friend Anil gives a comprehensive overview of use cases.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, February 10, 12:22 AM

Many technologies that have matured in the world of commercial sales are relevant for political candidates as well.  The sales "good guys" use tech to learn about their customer's needs, to do a better job of helping them find the best solution, to build authentic relationships, and more.

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Why today's artificial intelligence needs more (and that "more" is decision intelligence, btw)

Why today's artificial intelligence needs more (and that "more" is decision intelligence, btw) | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"While humans have at least four abilities that help us navigate the world — what A.I. visionary Yann LeCun calls “common sense” — A.I. today is only just beginning to learn the most basic of these."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Yann is, as usual, right.  Those yellow boxes? That's what DI does, working hand-in-hand with humans:

1) DI provides a visual map - the decision model - where humans can explain the context of things
2) Links in the decision model represent cause and effect chains
3) By understanding how decisions (and the actions they imply) lead to outcomes through the cause-and effect chains through external and internal factors, we make the best decisions.

Sign up at www.linkthebook.com to join the list for information about my upcoming book, _Link_: all about this. 

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Visualizing a complex medical journey

Visualizing a complex medical journey | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
My hope for Child Inspired is that our Get Well Maps will become a model for child-centered discharge planning, and that our tools will also help children and families visualize their progress as they re-integrate back into school and community activities after medical events. In this fast-paced, digital age where much of what our children encounter is instant gratification, many children need support and encouragement as they work towards goals that require time and perseverance. It is my hope that our Maps facilitate positive, encouraging language and communication between children and the adults providing their care.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Check this out!  A visualization of a child's road through a complex medical journal.  Decision Intelligence is all about thinking through the future impacts of current decisions.  This one just shows one path, illustrating the power of a compelling future visualization.

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What makes entire populations more effective at thinking clearly about the future and making good plans?  Language and visualization.

What makes entire populations more effective at thinking clearly about the future and making good plans?  Language and visualization. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

22:30: "People who had to stare at their future selves [in a digitally aged picture] saved a lot more [money] than people were staring at their current selves while making this decision… in the end this will result in tools that will allow us to be better stewards of our own futures.”

Lorien Pratt's insight:

How exciting!  Psychological study showing that there cheap and simple "nudges" - visualizations and language cues -  that allow people to think more clearly about the future, and to make better decisions that effect those futures.  This is the core of decision intelligence.

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Decision Intelligence - Pure Technologies

Decision Intelligence - Pure Technologies | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Pipeline Management Solutions
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Delighted to see a new company offering DI solutions!

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What comes next after machine learning?  It's Decision Intelligence. Here's how to learn more.

What comes next after machine learning?  It's Decision Intelligence. Here's how to learn more. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

A list of resources to learn decision intelligence.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

DI is the next technology breakthrough after machine learning.  Here's where to learn more.

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What To Do About Fake News

"Why is there so much Fake News? Fake News divides family members and attempts to discourage taking action. It dismantles our institutions, and prepares us for increasing demands from an authoritarian state. Understanding the emotion mechanics behind Fake News is the key to regaining our democratic system"

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A good human systems explanation of the dynamics of fake news, from Nicole Lazzaro.

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Which dashboard is better for collaborative Prostate Cancer decision making? (study invitation)

Which dashboard is better for collaborative Prostate Cancer decision making? (study invitation) | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"Many medical decisions involve issues that make decision making difficult...A variety of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have been developed to help individuals and groups make quality decisions in circumstances like these and move from decisional uncertainty to action. We are exploring how these methods can be used to help patients and providers work together to make good decisions in challenging circumstances."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A study that examines the effectiveness of different dashboard styles in helping with medical decision making. This is a very important question, as the doctor, patient, and evidence work collaboratively towards the best outcome.

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It's Time for New Economic Thinking Based on the Best Science Available, Not Ideology

It's Time for New Economic Thinking Based on the Best Science Available, Not Ideology | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

A new narrative for a complex age...Rational economic models are of little help on these issues, and a deeper understanding of psychology, sociology, political science, anthropology, and history is required. Likewise, communications is critical – thick reports are important for government ministries, but stories, narratives, visuals, and memes are needed to shift the media and public thinking."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Economics, including analysis of jobs and income disparity, is an area where DI can provide a framework for evidence and action.  Idealogy == pulling the same levers without understand the (new) implications and outcomes.

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Ideo Says The Future Of Design Is Circular

Ideo Says The Future Of Design Is Circular | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
A new guide for designers encourages them to create products that stay in closed loops and business models that discourage waste.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Circular design and decision intelligence have a lot of overlap: DI can be used for systems where the waste from one part of the system is the input to another.

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