Decision Intelligence
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The One Thing You Can Do To Help You Make Better, More Rational Decisions - Huffington Post

The One Thing You Can Do To Help You Make Better, More Rational Decisions - Huffington Post | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

The One Thing You Can Do To Help You Make Better, More Rational Decisions 

Mindfulness meditation -- which is awareness of the present moment -- can help you to make a rational decision in the face of this sunk-cost bias.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Great decision making comes from two sources: (1) better tools/methods,  and (2) better thinking through the thousands of decisions we make every day without benefit of computer / process support.  No matter how good we get at (1), we should not lose track of the importance of (2).   Recent research shows that we're very subject to cognitive bias, which is in part what's driving a lot of focus on "evidence-based" and other tool/data-based approaches.  But (2) will always exist, so we should also seek to reduce cognitive bias here.  This article says how.

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Decision Intelligence
AI/BI/CI/DI: Decision intelligence (DI) solves the world's most complex problems.   It connects human decision makers to technologies like machine learning, AI, deep learning, visual decision modeling, complex systems modeling, big data, predictive analytics, UX design, statistical analysis, business intelligence, business process management, causal reasoning, evidence-based analysis, and more. For an overview, see the webinar at http://youtu.be/XRTJt3bVCaE, http://www.lorienpratt.com, and the Decision Intelligence group: http://www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=205078.   Also, my company offers DI and machine learning consulting services.  See http://bit.ly/1X8O2zF to learn more. Would you like to receive the DI News in email? Click here to sign up: http://bit.ly/29wYd1u
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Gigaom | Voices in AI – Episode 35: A Conversation with Lorien Pratt

Gigaom | Voices in AI – Episode 35: A Conversation with Lorien Pratt | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"...what hasn’t happened is the widespread democratization of AI. Bill Gates said, we’re going to have a computer on every desk.” I also think that Granny, who now uses a computer, will also be building little machine learners within a few years from now. And so when I talk about personalized medicine or I talk about a city doing climate change, those are all, kind of, that general umbrella—it’s not going to be just limited to the technologists. It’s a technology that’s going through this democratization cycle, where it becomes available and accessible in a much more widespread way to solve really difficult problems."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

The past, present, and future of AI, seen through the lens of a working practitioner.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, March 20, 7:08 PM

DI and AI are important technologies for the future of political technology. 

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Text Embedding Models Contain Bias. Here's Why That Matters.

Text Embedding Models Contain Bias. Here's Why That Matters. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
An example of bias in this context is if the incoming message is "Did the engineer finish the project?" and the model scores the response "Yes he did" higher than "Yes she did." These associations are learned from the data used to train the embeddings, and while they reflect the degree to which each gendered response is likely to be the actual response in the training data (and the degree to which there's a gender imbalance in these occupations in the real world), it can be a negative experience for users when the system simply assumes that the engineer is male.
Lorien Pratt's insight:
This is extremely important: just because it's in the training data, doesn't mean it's the best model, especially if you don't want to reinforce problematic patterns of the past. We must take overall multi link systems into account.
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The Business Case for Decision Intelligence

An emerging business discipline, Decision Intelligence is upending the way that organizations, governments, and companies make decisions. "

Lorien Pratt's insight:

I'm proud of this introduction to DI, from a couple of years back.  It's more relevant today than ever, as the market is starting to catch up with our work, and be ready for going beyond AI to integrate AI models into simulations and DI models.  Thanks to Margaret Johnson and TDI3 for this opportunity!

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ehealthAnalytics: DI, ML for health in space, speaks at SXSW

ehealthAnalytics: DI, ML for health in space, speaks at SXSW | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"Pythia PREDICT™ is our subscription-based Advanced Analytics platform using machine learning technology and massive amounts of data to help improve outcomes and minimize risk and safety concerns ...Machine Learning and Decision Intelligence solutions work in tandem  to provide comprehensive solutions to support and enhance health practitioner capabilities  using the most advanced computer technology available today.  This gives us the best of  both worlds: expert professional judgement combined with computer support to provide  the highest quality in patient - centered care."

 

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Congratulations to one of the newest Decision Intelligence companies: ehealthanalytics.net, for its successful presentation at SXSW on space health!

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China, AI, and jobs

China, AI, and jobs | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
"China has more data than the US—way more. Data is what makes AI go. A very good scientist with a ton of data will beat a super scientist with a modest amount of data. China has the most mobile phones and internet users in the world—triple the number in the United States. But the gap is even bigger than that because of the way people in China use their devices. People there carry no cash. They pay all their utility bills with their phones. They can do all their shopping on their phones. You get off work and open an app to order food. By the time you reach home, the food is right there, hot off the electric motorbike."
Lorien Pratt's insight:
Kai Fu Lee's view of AI & jobs, with important insights about China
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Fake news is still a problem. Is AI the solution?

Fake news is still a problem. Is AI the solution? | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Experts say AI systems would help fill the gaps left by Snopes, Truth or Fiction, and other online fact-checking outlets, whose human fact-checkers lack the bandwidth to evaluate every article that appears online. These systems could also work with various fake news alert plugins available from Google’s web store, such as the browser extension This is Fake, which uses a red banner to flag debunked news stories on your Facebook newsfeed.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

The answer is "yes". Four additions:

1) This problem is analogous to spam detection, for which AI is improving accuracy over time

2) This will always be an arms race, with fake-news-generators constantly developing new tricks.  For this reason, the AIs will never be perfect

3) For the above reason, we should never expect fake-news AI to be perfect.  Instead, it should sort news into "definitely true", "definitely fake" and "not sure" and include humans in the lop for the last category.

4) As humans label the "not sure" items, and those labels are fed back into a machine learning system, it will get better over time.  So the human tags are part of the "good guy" side of the arms race.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, February 18, 5:07 PM

The answer is "yes". Four additions:

1) This problem is analogous to spam detection, for which AI is improving accuracy over time

2) This will always be an arms race, with fake-news-generators constantly developing new tricks.  For this reason, the AIs will never be perfect

3) For the above reason, we should never expect fake-news AI to be perfect.  Instead, it should sort news into "definitely true", "definitely fake" and "not sure" and include humans in the lop for the last category.

4) As humans label the "not sure" items, and those labels are fed back into a machine learning system, it will get better over time.  So the human tags are part of the "good guy" side of the arms race.

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Senate Intelligence Briefing features AI and Decision Advantage

Senate Intelligence Briefing features AI and Decision Advantage | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

General Ashley: “There is a key piece of this…which is how do you operationalize it….a WWII example: the fact that there were planes, radios, and tanks, was not unique to the Germans in WWII…they came up with an operational concept that allowed them to leverage that…[I asked Peter Singer]… as you look at the things that are emerging… what do you see in the way of a breakthrough that would give somebody a really marked advantage…. [Singer said it’s not that I see something that gives someone a marked advantage..].. It’s who’s able to harness it, who’s able to operationalize it, and put it to effect.Click here to edit the content

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Must-watch video, for many reasons: We are seeing DI validated every day.  Here's the latest: the language is Decision Advantage, but the goal is the same: understanding how to operationalize data using AI, machine learning, and other tech to lead not just to insights, but to actions that achieve outcomes.

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AI Sales Enablement for a Smoother Buyer Journey

AI Sales Enablement for a Smoother Buyer Journey | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
In short, an AI-based sales enablement tool is a multifunctional asset to any sales team. It takes over routine work, freeing up reps’ time. It simplifies data management, ensuring that reps don’t have to search through a lot of extraneous information to get what they need. And it can help teams reach their full potential by guiding their sales conversations and training them in effective selling techniques.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

AI is becoming increasingly important in sales. This article by my friend Anil gives a comprehensive overview of use cases.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, February 10, 12:22 AM

Many technologies that have matured in the world of commercial sales are relevant for political candidates as well.  The sales "good guys" use tech to learn about their customer's needs, to do a better job of helping them find the best solution, to build authentic relationships, and more.

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Why today's artificial intelligence needs more (and that "more" is decision intelligence, btw)

Why today's artificial intelligence needs more (and that "more" is decision intelligence, btw) | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"While humans have at least four abilities that help us navigate the world — what A.I. visionary Yann LeCun calls “common sense” — A.I. today is only just beginning to learn the most basic of these."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Yann is, as usual, right.  Those yellow boxes? That's what DI does, working hand-in-hand with humans:

1) DI provides a visual map - the decision model - where humans can explain the context of things
2) Links in the decision model represent cause and effect chains
3) By understanding how decisions (and the actions they imply) lead to outcomes through the cause-and effect chains through external and internal factors, we make the best decisions.

Sign up at www.linkthebook.com to join the list for information about my upcoming book, _Link_: all about this. 

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Visualizing a complex medical journey

Visualizing a complex medical journey | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
My hope for Child Inspired is that our Get Well Maps will become a model for child-centered discharge planning, and that our tools will also help children and families visualize their progress as they re-integrate back into school and community activities after medical events. In this fast-paced, digital age where much of what our children encounter is instant gratification, many children need support and encouragement as they work towards goals that require time and perseverance. It is my hope that our Maps facilitate positive, encouraging language and communication between children and the adults providing their care.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Check this out!  A visualization of a child's road through a complex medical journal.  Decision Intelligence is all about thinking through the future impacts of current decisions.  This one just shows one path, illustrating the power of a compelling future visualization.

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What makes entire populations more effective at thinking clearly about the future and making good plans?  Language and visualization.

What makes entire populations more effective at thinking clearly about the future and making good plans?  Language and visualization. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

22:30: "People who had to stare at their future selves [in a digitally aged picture] saved a lot more [money] than people were staring at their current selves while making this decision… in the end this will result in tools that will allow us to be better stewards of our own futures.”

Lorien Pratt's insight:

How exciting!  Psychological study showing that there cheap and simple "nudges" - visualizations and language cues -  that allow people to think more clearly about the future, and to make better decisions that effect those futures.  This is the core of decision intelligence.

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Decision Intelligence - Pure Technologies

Decision Intelligence - Pure Technologies | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Pipeline Management Solutions
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Delighted to see a new company offering DI solutions!

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What comes next after machine learning?  It's Decision Intelligence. Here's how to learn more.

What comes next after machine learning?  It's Decision Intelligence. Here's how to learn more. | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

A list of resources to learn decision intelligence.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

DI is the next technology breakthrough after machine learning.  Here's where to learn more.

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Motivating the Greatest Geniuses in AI to Change the World Instead of Destroy It

"Let’s build a cryptocurrency platform and DAO dedicated to solving the biggest problems in the world today. Think of it as a public trust, a charity and Kickstarter on steroids.The problems would be submitted by a council of dedicated scientists, futurists and thinkers or voted on by the public. We could have fast track problems submitted by the council and publicly submitted challenges and a robust voting system that filters spam and joke requests. It’s very purpose would be to distribute money as it’s printed to the people who create value for all of us."
Lorien Pratt's insight:
blockchain friends: is this a good idea?
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Mark your calendars! Wired editor-at-large David Rowan hosts AI-driven decision making conference in Palo Alto May 9

Mark your calendars! Wired editor-at-large David Rowan hosts AI-driven decision making conference in Palo Alto May 9 | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"...transform decision-making in dynamic, high-dimensional systems like financial markets, logistics, transportation networks smart-cities, and supply chains..."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Sounds like DI, doesn't it?  I'll be speaking.  It's invite-only, so drop me a line (at lorien.pratt@quantellia.com) for an invitation.

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NASA Frontier Development Labs Applications for Summer 2018

NASA Frontier Development Labs Applications for Summer 2018 | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

FDL is an applied artificial intelligence research accelerator established to maximize new AI technologies and capacities emerging in academia and the private sector and apply them to challenges in the space sciences.


Commercial, international and academic partners, such as Nvidia, Intel, IBM and Lockheed Martin, ESA, SpaceResources Luxembourg, USC MASCLE, Kx Systems and Miso Technologies providee capital, expertise and vast GPU compute resources necessary for rapid experimentation and iteration in data intensive areas.


FDL is hosted by the SETI Institute in Mountain View, California - in partnership with NASA Ames Research Center.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Got some time this summer?  Want to take your AI or space science work to the next level? 

 

This is an amazing program, known to do a bit of DI from time to time as well.   Great sponsors and state-of-the art hardware and commercial sponsors (can you say GPU?)

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What’s Next for Humanity: Automation, New Morality and a ‘Global Useless Class’

What’s Next for Humanity: Automation, New Morality and a ‘Global Useless Class’ | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

The problem, he said, is understanding the “extremely complicated chains of cause and effect” in the world. “My fear is that homo sapiens are not just up to it. We have created such a complicated world that we’re no longer able to make sense of what is happening.”

Lorien Pratt's insight:

This short video is well worth a listen, but is too pessimistic.   @harari_yuval is brilliantly right that understanding complex chains of cause and effect is the next great challenge for humanity, but we can conquer this challenge. That's what DI is all about

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Fact-Checking a Facebook Executive’s Comments on Russian Interference - The New York Times

Fact-Checking a Facebook Executive’s Comments on Russian Interference - The New York Times | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
"After initially dismissing concerns that it influenced the 2016 election, Facebook has announced a series of moves to prevent its future misuse. One of those steps includes verifying political advertisers through a system that combines automated and human fact checkers. The company has also said it plans to use postcards sent by regular mail to verify the identities of American political advertisers. "
Lorien Pratt's insight:
point by point analysis of Facebook vp's statements regarding its role in election meddling.
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Raytheon Cyber: Every Side of Cyber

Raytheon Cyber: Every Side of Cyber | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
When everything is connected, security is everything. That’s why Raytheon delivers solutions that protect every side of cyber for government agencies, businesses and nations. Protecting the most critical information, systems and operations with breakthrough solutions — to make the world a safer place.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Nice to see Raytheon using Quantellia's logo :-)  It's everywhere.

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How Do You Vote? 50 Million Google Images Give a Clue

How Do You Vote? 50 Million Google Images Give a Clue | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Text has been easier for A.I. to handle, because words have discrete characters — 26 letters, in the case of English. That makes it much closer to the natural language of computers than the freehand chaos of imagery. But image recognition technology, much of it developed by major technology companies, has improved greatly in recent years.

The Stanford project gives a glimpse at the potential. By pulling the vehicles’ makes, models and years from the images, and then linking that information with other data sources, the project was able to predict factors like pollution and voting patterns at the neighborhood level.
Lorien Pratt's insight:

I've just recently seen this start to emerge for a number of clients: the use of image data in addition to text data as a source for machine learning.  An important new direction.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, February 10, 12:54 AM

Machine learning from image information for political canvassing in addition to the text that's used today has powerful implications.  Is it an invasion of privacy or a beneficial source of information to optimize activities?  Or a little of both?

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Forbes: Throw Out The Rule Book To Improve Customer Experience

Forbes: Throw Out The Rule Book To Improve Customer Experience | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

““Data alone is chocolate, not chocolate cake. It’s just one ingredient: necessary but not sufficient to obtain business value from many data sources,” said Pratt, chief scientist and co-founder of the software company Quantellia. “Machine learning, artificial intelligence and decision intelligence are needed to extract the full value from investments in big data.”

Lorien Pratt's insight:

Because you should use a chocolate metaphor whenever possible.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, February 10, 12:01 AM

Although this Forbes article is from the commercial world, it's even more relevant in politics, where simple rules for contacting constituents quickly become obsolete, and machine learning to automatically create those rules is becoming more and more important.

Aurelie Giard's curator insight, March 20, 8:15 AM

Il y a de plus en plus de données, il faut choisir ce qu'on en fait.

La DSI et les directions métiers doivent collaborer pour établir les cas d'usage qui amèneront de la valeur aux employés et aux clients. La clé selon Pratt est d'utiliser les différents outils à disposition (machine learning, sentiment analysis, modèles prédictifs, etc) pour analyser ce que les clients veulent et adapter dynamiquement les processus. 

Je pense que les entreprises devraient s'interroger sur les données qu'elles ont déjà, peut-être en abandonner certaines pour se concentrer sur ce qui amène réellement de la valeur pour le client, et trouver le moyen de collecter ce qui leur manque.

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Spark Actions Doesn't Just Give You the News – It Shows You Exactly How to Act on It, Too

Spark Actions Doesn't Just Give You the News – It Shows You Exactly How to Act on It, Too | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it
Ultimately, though, Spark Actions is looking to make creating change more accessible, and less of a scary ordeal. "With everything going on in someone's life, often times political engagement or activism falls to the bottom of the to-do list. It often pops up if something urgent happens in the news. . . it becomes top of mind for a few minutes, and then fades away," Rockmore said. "What we want do with Spark Actions is give you a place where being able to engage doesn't feel like work; instead, it feels not only like it's rewarding, but that it is actually moving the needle and enabling an individual or a group of people to make real change in our country at a time when there's a lot of uncertainty."
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Understand the impact of actions is core to DI, and there's an increasing focus on actions - as opposed to just ideas -  within politics.  Spark Actions is a good example of this technology.

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Lorien Pratt's curator insight, January 23, 2:58 AM

Moving from ideas that stay on social media...to actions that happen in the world.  Spark Actions is a great service.

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Why Humble People Make Better Decisions

Why Humble People Make Better Decisions | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"Have you ever noticed how we say that beliefs are something you “hold”? According to new research out of Duke University, the grip you keep on your ideas shapes the way you approach the world. How tightly (or not) you cling to your own opinions is called “intellectual humility” (IH), and it could have a big effect on the decisions you make."


Via Philippe Vallat
Lorien Pratt's insight:

Intellectual humility is the degree to which people recognize that their beliefs might be wrong...and people high in intellectual humility were more attuned to the strength of persuasive arguments than those who were low.  This is part of the "framing" needed for good decision intelligence including voting decisions.

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Philippe Vallat's curator insight, June 16, 2017 8:53 AM

Worth reading in times of "alternative facts"

Lorien Pratt's curator insight, January 21, 7:36 PM

Intellectual humility is the degree to which people recognize that their beliefs might be wrong...and people high in intellectual humility were more attuned to the strength of persuasive arguments than those who were low.  This is part of the "framing" needed for good decision intelligence including voting decisions.

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Correlation CAN Imply Causation!

Correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation, but it can.

Lorien Pratt's insight:

My garbage disposal broke recently.  The repairman fixed it, and along the way, noticed coffee grounds in the drain.  He said "don't do that!  It'll make your disposal clog!  I always see coffee grounds when I repair them." 

 

What's wrong with his answer? 

 

This video is the best and clearest explanation I've ever seen. Part of the answer: causal networks.   Without an understanding of them, it's impossible to know how the world works.

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2018: Rebuilding Our Civilizations from Source

2018: Rebuilding Our Civilizations from Source | Decision Intelligence | Scoop.it

"... If Trump is only the symptom, what is the real problem? The real problem is that we lack an educational or learning system that activates our deeper capacities for vertical development. That new core process of learning, I believe, starts with cultivating the self, with activating our deeper creative capacities."

Lorien Pratt's insight:

A brilliant articulation of a vision of 2018 new growth from the creative destruction of 2017.  Sharma's vision is closely aligned with decision intelligence: his presencing is what we realize practically through a shift from auditory/sequential to visual /spatial/motor thinking: allowing us to tap a much deeper cognition, including subrational and systems analysis.

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