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Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it

The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of ‘systemic’ risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998–2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear – but unpredictable – signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies.


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Mathematicians Decode the Surprising Complexity of Cow Herds

Mathematicians Decode the Surprising Complexity of Cow Herds | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
DO ME A favor and picture a pasture dotted with a herd of grazing cows. Some stand and stare at you with that patented cow stare, others bury their heads in the green, green grass, while still others have laid down for a rest. Tranquil, right? About as simple as life gets?
Well, I’m sorry to say that your idea of the herd life may be a lie. Because a new mathematical model posits that while they don’t look it, cow herds may be extremely dynamic, secretly contentious gatherings of warring interests. Yes, with the help of a biologist, mathematicians calculated the fascinating dynamics of cow herds, and yes, they reported it today in a journal called Chaos.

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Thermodynamics of Evolutionary Games

How cooperation can evolve between players is an unsolved problem of biology. Here we use Hamiltonian dynamics of models of the Ising type to describe populations of cooperating and defecting players to show that the equilibrium fraction of cooperators is given by the expectation value of a thermal observable akin to a magnetization. We apply the formalism to the Public Goods game with three players, and show that a phase transition between cooperation and defection occurs that is equivalent to a transition in one-dimensional Ising crystals with long-range interactions. We also investigate the effect of punishment on cooperation and find that punishment acts like a magnetic field that leads to an "alignment" between players, thus encouraging cooperation. We suggest that a thermal Hamiltonian picture of the evolution of cooperation can generate other insights about the dynamics of evolving groups by mining the rich literature of critical dynamics in low-dimensional spin systems.

 

Thermodynamics of Evolutionary Games
Christoph Adami, Arend Hintze


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The thermodynamic roots of synergy and its impact on society

Synergy, emerges from synchronized reciprocal positive feedback loops between a network of diverse actors. For this process to proceed, compatible information from different sources synchronically coordinates the actions of the actors resulting in a nonlinear increase in the useful work or potential energy the system can manage. In contrast noise is produced when incompatible information is mixed. This synergy produced from the coordination of different agents achieves non-linear gains in energy and/or information that are greater than the sum of the parts. The final product of new synergies is an increase in individual autonomy of an organism that achieves increased emancipation from the environment with increases in productivity, efficiency, capacity for flexibility, self-regulation and self-control of behavior through a synchronized division of ever more specialized labor. Synergistic is the interdisciplinary science explaining the formation and self-organization of patterns and structures in partially open systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Understanding the mechanisms that produce synergy helps to increase success rates in everyday life, in business, in science, in economics and in increasing, yet to named areas. A mechanism discovered by biological evolution favoring the achievement of synergy in addition to division of labor is assortation: the combination of similar or compatible agents or information, to reduce the chances of noisy mismatches. Empirical evidence in many domains show that assortative information matching increases the probability of achieving synergy.The roots of synergy are the features of that promote an increase the information content or negentropy of the system, and its power to produce useful work.

 

The thermodynamic roots of synergy and its impact on society

Klaus Jaffe


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A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem

Once considered provocative, the notion that the wisdom of the crowd is superior to any individual has become itself a piece of crowd wisdom, leading to speculation that online voting may soon put credentialed experts out of business. Recent applications include political and economic forecasting, evaluating nuclear safety, public policy, the quality of chemical probes, and possible responses to a restless volcano. Algorithms for extracting wisdom from the crowd are typically based on a democratic voting procedure. They are simple to apply and preserve the independence of personal judgment. However, democratic methods have serious limitations. They are biased for shallow, lowest common denominator information, at the expense of novel or specialized knowledge that is not widely shared. Adjustments based on measuring confidence do not solve this problem reliably. Here we propose the following alternative to a democratic vote: select the answer that is more popular than people predict. We show that this principle yields the best answer under reasonable assumptions about voter behaviour, while the standard ‘most popular’ or ‘most confident’ principles fail under exactly those same assumptions. Like traditional voting, the principle accepts unique problems, such as panel decisions about scientific or artistic merit, and legal or historical disputes. The potential application domain is thus broader than that covered by machine learning and psychometric methods, which require data across multiple questions.

 

A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem

Dražen Prelec, H. Sebastian Seung & John McCoy

Nature 541, 532–535 (26 January 2017) doi:10.1038/nature21054

 


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Six Steps to Developing a Societal Change System | Networking Action

Six Steps to Developing a Societal Change System | Networking Action | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it

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Age of Entanglement

Age of Entanglement | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it

This essay proposes a map for four domains of creative exploration—Science, Engineering, Design and Art—in an attempt to represent the antidisciplinary hypothesis: that knowledge can no longer be ascribed to, or produced within, disciplinary boundaries, but is entirely entangled. The goal is to establish a tentative, yet holistic, cartography of the interrelation between these domains, where one realm can incite ®evolution inside another; and where a single individual or project can reside in multiple dominions. Mostly, this is an invitation to question and to amend what is being proposed.

 

Age of Entanglement
By Neri Oxman

Journal of Design of Science

http://jods.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/AgeOfEntanglement


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Tip Ghosh's curator insight, March 20, 2016 3:49 PM

The article links art and science together

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What makes good strategy?

What makes good strategy? | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
In Good Strategy/Bad Strategy, Richard Rumelt describes what bad strategy is and why we see so much of it. He also shares his framework for what drives good strategy along with guidance on how to create more of it. For a quick overview of his work, make sure to

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Mental Modeler - Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping

Mental Modeler - Fuzzy Logic Cognitive Mapping | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it

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june holley's curator insight, January 21, 2016 7:43 AM

Example of a simple web-based tool that can be used by communities to look at implications of decisions. 

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Flat and Fluid: How Companies Without Hierarchy Manage Themselves — Medium

Flat and Fluid:  How Companies Without Hierarchy Manage Themselves — Medium | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
This post explores three flat and fluid organizations in completely different industries and of vastly different sizes. …

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Earth Talk: Fritjof Capra - The Systems View of Life

A talk given at Schumacher College (UK), Dartington on May 7th 2014. The great challenge of our time is to build and nurture sustainable communities, designe...

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System Mapping for You

System Mapping for You | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
Get this simple tool that helps us make sense of the complex patterns around us. HSD offers you a tool created for mapping your own complex systems.

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Modeling the Internet of Things, Self-Organizing and Other Complex Adaptive Communication Networks: A Cognitive Agent-Based Computing Approach

Modeling the Internet of Things, Self-Organizing and Other Complex Adaptive Communication Networks: A Cognitive Agent-Based Computing Approach | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
Background Computer Networks have a tendency to grow at an unprecedented scale. Modern networks involve not only computers but also a wide variety of other interconnected devices ranging from mobile phones to other household items fitted with sensors. This vision of the "Internet of Things" (IoT) implies an inherent difficulty in modeling problems. Purpose It is practically impossible to implement and test all scenarios for large-scale and complex adaptive communication networks as part of Complex Adaptive Communication Networks and Environments (CACOONS). The goal of this study is to explore the use of Agent-based Modeling as part of the Cognitive Agent-based Computing (CABC) framework to model a Complex communication network problem. Method We use Exploratory Agent-based Modeling (EABM), as part of the CABC framework, to develop an autonomous multi-agent architecture for managing carbon footprint in a corporate network. To evaluate the application of complexity in practical scenarios, we have also introduced a company-defined computer usage policy. Results The conducted experiments demonstrated two important results: Primarily CABC-based modeling approach such as using Agent-based Modeling can be an effective approach to modeling complex problems in the domain of IoT. Secondly, the specific problem of managing the Carbon footprint can be solved using a multiagent system approach.

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A pulsating star in the constellation Lyra revealed a peculiar mathematical object

A pulsating star in the constellation Lyra revealed a peculiar mathematical object | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it

A pulsating star in the constellation Lyra generates a unique fractal pattern that hints at unknown stellar processes.


What struck John Learned about the blinking of KIC 5520878, a bluish-white star 16,000 light-years away, was how artificial it seemed. A “variable” star, KIC 5520878 brightens and dims in a six-hour cycle, seesawing between cool-and-clear and hot-and-opaque. Overlaying this rhythm is a second, subtler variation of unknown origin; this frequency interplays with the first to make some of the star’s pulses brighter than others. In the fluctuations, Learned had identified interesting and, he thought, possibly intelligent sequences, such as prime numbers (which have been floated as a conceivable basis of extraterrestrial communication). He then found hints that the star’s pulses were chaotic.


But when Learned mentioned his investigations to a colleague, William Ditto, last summer, Ditto was struck by the ratio of the two frequencies driving the star’s pulsations. “I said, ‘Wait a minute, that’s the golden mean.’” This irrational number, which begins 1.618, is found in certain spirals, golden rectangles and now the relative speeds of two mysterious stellar processes. It meant that the blinking of KIC 5520878 wasn’t an extraterrestrial signal, Ditto realized, but something else that had never before been found in nature: a mathematical curiosity caught halfway between order and chaos called a “strange nonchaotic attractor.”


Dynamical systems — such as pendulums, the weather and variable stars — tend to fall into circumscribed patterns of behavior that are a subset of all the ways they could possibly behave. A pendulum wants to swing from side to side, for example, and the weather stays within a general realm of possibility (it will never be zero degrees in summer). Plotting these patterns creates a shape called an “attractor.”


Mathematicians in the 1970s used attractors to model the behavior of chaotic systems like the weather, and they found that the future path of such a system through its attractor is extremely dependent on its exact starting point. This sensitivity to initial conditions, known as the butterfly effect, makes the behavior of chaotic systems unpredictable; you can’t tell the forecast very far in advance if the flap of a butterfly’s wings today can make the difference, two weeks from now, between sunshine and a hurricane. The infinitely detailed paths that most chaotic systems take through their attractors are called “fractals.” Zoom in on a fractal, and new variations keep appearing, just as new outcrops appear whenever you zoom in on the craggy coastline of Great Britain. Attractors with this fractal structure are called “strange attractors.”


Then in 1984, mathematicians led by Celso Grebogi, Edward Ott and James Yorke of the University of Maryland in College Park discovered an unexpected new category of objects — strange attractors shaped not by chaos but by irrationality. These shapes formed from the paths of a system driven at two frequencies with no common multiple — that is, frequencies whose ratio was an irrational number, like pi or the golden mean. Unlike other strange attractors, these special “nonchaotic” ones did not exhibit a butterfly effect; a small change to a system’s initial state had a proportionally small effect on its resulting fractal journey through its attractor, making its evolution relatively stable and predictable.


“It was quite surprising to find these fractal structures in something that was totally nonchaotic,” said Grebogi, a Brazilian chaos theorist who is now a professor at the University of Aberdeen in Scotland.


Though no example could be positively identified, scientists speculated that strange nonchaotic attractors might be everywhere around and within us. It seemed possible that the climate, with its variable yet stable patterns, could be such a system. The human brain might be another.


The first laboratory demonstration of strange nonchaotic dynamics occurred in 1990, spearheaded by Ott and none other than William Ditto. Working at the Naval Surface Warfare Center in Silver Spring, Maryland, Ditto, Ott and several collaborators induced a magnetic field inside a metallic strip of tinsel called a “magnetoelastic ribbon” and varied the field’s strength at two different frequencies related by the golden ratio. The ribbon stiffened and relaxed in a strange nonchaotic pattern, bringing to life the mathematical discovery from six years earlier. “We were the first people to see this thing; we were pleased with that,” Ditto said. “Then I forgot about it for 20 years.


The study of variable stars entered boom times in 2009 with the launch of the Kepler telescope, which looked for small aberrations in starlight as a sign of distant planets. The telescope gathered a trove of unprecedented data on the pulsations of variable stars throughout the galaxy. Other, ground-based surveys have added further riches.


The data revealed subtle variations in many of the stars’ pulsations that hinted at stellar processes beyond those described by Eddington. The pulses of starlight could be separated into two main frequencies: a faster one like the beat of a snare drum and a slower one like a gong, with the two rhythms played out of sync. And in more than 100 of these variable stars — including those, like KIC 5520878, belonging to a subclass called “RRc” — the ratios defining the duration of one frequency relative to the other inexplicably fell between 1.58 and 1.64.


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Looking into Pandora's Box: The Content of Sci-Hub and its Usage

Despite the growth of Open Access, potentially illegally circumventing paywalls to access scholarly publications is becoming a more mainstream phenomenon. The web service Sci-Hub is amongst the biggest facilitators of this, offering free access to around 62 million publications. So far it is not well studied how and why its users are accessing publications through Sci-Hub. By utilizing the recently released corpus of Sci-Hub and comparing it to the data of ~28 million downloads done through the service, this study tries to address some of these questions. The comparative analysis shows that both the usage and complete corpus is largely made up of recently published articles, with users disproportionately favoring newer articles and 35% of downloaded articles being published after 2013. These results hint that embargo periods before publications become Open Access are frequently circumnavigated using Guerilla Open Access approaches like Sci-Hub. On a journal level, the downloads show a bias towards some scholarly disciplines, especially Chemistry, suggesting increased barriers to access for these. Comparing the use and corpus on a publisher level, it becomes clear that only 11% of publishers are highly requested in comparison to the baseline frequency, while 45% of all publishers are significantly less accessed than expected. Despite this, the oligopoly of publishers is even more remarkable on the level of content consumption, with 80% of all downloads being published through only 9 publishers. All of this suggests that Sci-Hub is used by different populations and for a number of different reasons, and that there is still a lack of access to the published scientific record. A further analysis of these openly available data resources will undoubtedly be valuable for the investigation of academic publishing.

 

Looking into Pandora's Box: The Content of Sci-Hub and its Usage

Bastian Greshake

F1000Research Article


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Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development

Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions---delivery failures, faulty parts, delays, power outages, theft, government failures---that systematically thwart the production process. To understand how these disruptions affect economic development, we model an evolving input--output network in which disruptions spread contagiously among optimizing agents. The key finding is that a poverty trap can emerge: agents adapt to frequent disruptions by producing simpler, less valuable goods, yet disruptions persist. Growing out of poverty requires that agents invest in buffers to disruptions. These buffers rise and then fall as the economy produces more complex goods, a prediction consistent with global patterns of input inventories. Large jumps in economic complexity can backfire. This result suggests why "big push" policies can fail, and it underscores the importance of reliability and of gradual increases in technological complexity.

 

Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development
Charles D. Brummitt, Kenan Huremovic, Paolo Pin, Matthew H. Bonds, Fernando Vega-Redondo


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Physicists Make the Case That Our Brains' Learning Is Controlled by Entropy

Physicists Make the Case That Our Brains' Learning Is Controlled by Entropy | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
Everything's connected.

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A theoretical foundation for multi-scale regular vegetation patterns

A theoretical foundation for multi-scale regular vegetation patterns | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it

Empirically validated mathematical models show that a combination of intraspecific competition between subterranean social-insect colonies and scale-dependent feedbacks between plants can explain the spatially periodic vegetation patterns observed in many landscapes, such as the Namib Desert ‘fairy circles’.

 

A theoretical foundation for multi-scale regular vegetation patterns

Corina E. Tarnita, Juan A. Bonachela, Efrat Sheffer, Jennifer A. Guyton, Tyler C. Coverdale, Ryan A. Long & Robert M. Pringle

Nature 541, 398–401 (19 January 2017) doi:10.1038/nature20801


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Sustaining the Commons | Free eBook

Sustaining the Commons | Free eBook | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it

This textbook discusses the main framework, concepts and applications of the work of Elinor Ostrom for an undergraduate audience.


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How Do You Say “Life” in Physics?

How Do You Say “Life” in Physics? | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it

We think we know life when we see it. Darwin’s theory even explains how one form of life evolves into another. But what is the difference between a robin and a rock, when both obey the same physical laws? In other words, how do you say “life” in physics? Some have argued that the word is untranslatable. But maybe it simply needed the right translator.

 

http://nautil.us/issue/34/adaptation/how-do-you-say-life-in-physics


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Systems Thinking: A journey along the way

Systems Thinking: A journey along the way | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
A systems view is somewhat in contradiction to the concept of analysis, which is breaking things down into smaller pieces to simplify the study. Analysis brings with it the risk of potentially loos…

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FlaTt AND Fluid: How companies without hierarchy manage themselves

FlaTt AND Fluid: How companies without hierarchy manage themselves | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
This post explores three flat and fluid organizations in completely different industries and of vastly different sizes. …

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Stigmergy as a Universal Coordination Mechanism I: Definition and Components

Stigmergy as a Universal Coordination Mechanism I: Definition and Components | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it

The concept of stigmergy has been used to analyze self-organizing activities in an ever-widening range of domains, including social insects, robotics, web communities and human society. Yet, it is still poorly understood and as such its full power remains underappreciated. The present paper clarifies the issue by defining stigmergy as a mechanism of indirect coordination in which the trace left by an action in a medium stimulates subsequent actions. It then analyses the fundamental concepts used in the definition: action, agent, medium, trace and coordination. It clarifies how stigmergy enables complex, coordinated activity without any need for planning, control, communication, simultaneous presence, or even mutual awareness. The resulting self-organization is driven by a combination of positive and negative feedbacks, amplifying beneficial developments while suppressing errors. Thus, stigmergy is applicable to a very broad variety of cases, from chemical reactions to bodily coordination and Internet-supported collaboration in Wikipedia.

 

Stigmergy as a Universal Coordination Mechanism I: Definition and Components
Leslie Marsh, Ted G. Lewis, Francis Heylighen

Cognitive Systems Research

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cogsys.2015.12.002 ;


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Open Sourcing Social Change: Inside the Constellation Model | TIM Review

Open Sourcing Social Change: Inside the Constellation Model | TIM Review | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
"In spite of current ads and slogans, the world doesn't change one person at a time. It changes as networks of relationships form among people who discover they share a common cause and vision of what's possible." Margaret Wheatley and Deborah Freize

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The physics of life

The physics of life | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
From flocking birds to swarming molecules, physicists are seeking to understand 'active matter' — and looking for a fundamental theory of the living world.

 

http://www.nature.com/news/the-physics-of-life-1.19105


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Marcelo Errera's curator insight, January 13, 2016 1:09 PM

Organization emerges naturally. One more manifestation of the constructal law.

 

By the way, soon to appear:

The Physics of Life: The Evolution of Everything 
by Adrian Bejan 
Link: http://amzn.com/1250078822

Francisco Restivo's curator insight, January 14, 2016 6:29 PM

Living world is the real laboratory.

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Holacracy, Managerless Offices and The Future of Work

Holacracy, Managerless Offices and The Future of Work | collectibles from scoop.it | Scoop.it
Brian Robertson, Co-Founder of HolacracyOne, gives an overview of his revolutionary new self-management system.

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