Central Bank Forecasting
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Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy by Athanasios Orphanides, Volker Wieland :: SSRN

Monetary policy analysts often rely on rules-of-thumb, such as the Taylor rule, to describe historical monetary policy decisions and to compare current policy

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"Thus, a forecast-based rule of thumb better characterizes FOMC decisionmaking."

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The Inflation Forecast

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Should the MPC be held accountable for the inflation forecast?

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How useful is Okun's law?

Downloadable! From the beginning of 2003 through the first quarter of 2006, real gross domestic product in the United States grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent. As expected, unemployment during the period fell.
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The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts

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When did FOMC member predictions begin to account for a flattening Phillips curve?

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Inflated Expectations: How Government Partisanship Shapes Monetary Policy Bureaucrats’ Inflation Forecasts by Christopher Gandrud, Cassandra Grafström :: SSRN

Governments’ party identifications can indicate the types of economic policies they are likely to pursue. A common rule of thumb is that left-party governments
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My paper with Cassie Grafstrom on partisan errors in Greenbook forecasts.

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The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?

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Does the FOMC add value to staff forecasts? Apparently not.

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Are heterogeneous FOMC forecasts consistent with the Fed’s monetary policy?

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Creating a History of U.S. Inflation Expectations | The Big Picture

Creating a History of U.S. Inflation Expectations | The Big Picture | Central Bank Forecasting | Scoop.it
Creating a History of U.S. Inflation Expectations Jan Groen and Menno Middeldorp Liberty Street Economics, August 21, 2013     Central
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An attempt to create a back cast of TIPS.

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Forecast Disagreement Among FOMC Members - Working Papers - St. Louis Fed

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.
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EconPapers: Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?

By Andrew Atkeson and Lee Edward Ohanian; Abstract: This study evaluates the conventional wisdom that modern Phillips curve-based models are useful tools for forecasting
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Fed 'Doves' Beat 'Hawks' in Economic Prognosticating

Fed 'Doves' Beat 'Hawks' in Economic Prognosticating | Central Bank Forecasting | Scoop.it
The Wall Street Journal examined more than 700 predictions made between 2009 and 2012 in speeches and congressional testimony by 14 Fed policy makers—and scored the predictions on growth, jobs and inflation.
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Examines forecasts in speeches and testimony for errors. No partisan errors examined.

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Projections for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress - Philadelphia Fed

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Raw data for FOMC forecasts to be combined and presented to Congress.

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Monetary Policy Oversight - House of Representatives Hearings - FRASER

Under the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 (also referred to as the Humphrey-Hawkins Act), the Federal Reserve must submit a report on the economy to Congress by February 20 and July 20 of each year.
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Monetary Policy Report to Congress

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Strategic forecasting on the FOMC

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Comparison of voting and non-voting governor's forecasts. Finds a sort of signalling game where non-voting members change their forecasts to influence outcomes.

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A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC - ROMER - 2010 - Journal of Money, Credit and Banking - Wiley Online Library

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Introduces a data set of individual FOMC member forecasts.

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