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Staying ahead in the actuarial work field by means of different insights
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Too Big to Tail

Too Big to Tail | Actuary | Scoop.it

Inspired by Taleb's view on investment risk, I asked my audience to rank the next randomly presented stock charts in order of decreasing risk. 

 

 

Can you manage?

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QIS: Longevity Risk Sharing

QIS: Longevity Risk Sharing | Actuary | Scoop.it

Let's do a mini QIS (Quantitative Impact Study) of 'mortality solidarity' by examining the development of the composition of an annual lifetime annuity, regarding three basic elements: Mortality, Return and Desaving.

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Actuary Info Blog: Pension Egg Choice

Actuary Info Blog: Pension Egg Choice | Actuary | Scoop.it
Imagine you're a new pension fund member and your pension fund offers you the next simple proposal regarding your future pension income. With closed eyes you are allowed to take out two 'pension eggs', either from nest I or nest II. Which nest do you choose?
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Actuarial Public Debt

Actuarial Public Debt | Actuary | Scoop.it

Hot from the press, the 'actuaries' behind the 83rd BIS Annual Report 2012/2013 show us the impact of the commitments to future spending on pensions and health care that are missing in current measure of public debt. 

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AIFMD Fun of Funds

AIFMD Fun of Funds | Actuary | Scoop.it

An adequate in-depth market risk assessment of AIFMs AIFs actually requires a full 'fund of funds' transparency of the portfolio of the (AIF) funds.

 

The problem is that full 'fund of funds' transparency does not exist yet, nor can it finally be fully obtained. It's simply too complex

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Pension for Contribution

Pension for Contribution | Actuary | Scoop.it

People are lost if it comes down to their pension.

A recent (2012) Friends Life survey found that 68% of Britons do not know the collective value of their pension funds.....

This result is in line with a Dutch 2011 survey, that concludes that 66% has no knowledge of their pension.


Key question is:How much pension Benefits for how much contribution?

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Excel Pension Calculator

Excel Pension Calculator | Actuary | Scoop.it

Why isn't there just a simple pension Excel calculator on the internet, so I can do my own pension planning?

Well..., from now on there is!

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Worldwide Country Bonds Overview

Worldwide Country Bonds Overview | Actuary | Scoop.it

Country Bond Rates are decreasing. As global debt is still increasing, trust is declining. 'Counterparty Safe Cash' is what's becoming more and more important. Prepare for getting used to negative interest rates!

 

Germany, Denmark and The Netherlands already enter the negative interest rate zone for 1 and 2 year bonds.

 

Take a look at a worldwide Country Bond Rate oversight at:

http://actuary-info.blogspot.nl/2012/08/worldwide-country-bonds-overview.html

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Humor: Actuarial Marriage Advice

Humor: Actuarial Marriage Advice | Actuary | Scoop.it

It's an intriguing topic: Do you indeed live longer if you marry a younger woman? Or is this kind of party talk total nonsense?

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Actuary Info Blog: Risk Manager Test

Actuary Info Blog: Risk Manager Test | Actuary | Scoop.it

Risk Manager is THE profession of the future.

 

For all (young) actuaries, econometricians and other talented whizzkids who are considering to become a Risk Manager, here's the ultimate test...

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Actuary Info Blog: Standard Deviation, a Poor Measure of Risk

Actuary Info Blog: Standard Deviation, a Poor Measure of Risk | Actuary | Scoop.it

To illustrate the failure of Standard deviation (SD) as a measure of risk, take a look at the next example in which we compare the performance of two different asset classes, AC-I and AC-II, with the next characteristics:


(1)AC-I and AC-II have the same average (compound) return of 2.5% per year

(2) AC-I has a Standard Deviation of 13,9% and AC-II a SD of 27%

 

(3) AC-I has a maximum deviation of minus 40.0% and AC-II of 76.3%

 

What's more risky: Asset Class I or II ?

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Investment Herding Risk

Investment Herding Risk | Actuary | Scoop.it

De facto Dutch pension funds are active traders and trade about 8.5% of their portfolio on a monthly basis!

 

Conclusion: Robust herding behavior in investments of Dutch pension funds
Overall (LSV) herding level of 8.14% (significant at 1% level !!)
On average if 100 PFs are active in the same security in the same month, there are 8.14 more PFs trading on the same side of the market than what would be expected under null hypothesis of random selection of securities.

 

Explanation? Read further....

 

 

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Actuary Info Blog: Excel Pension Calculator

Actuary Info Blog: Excel Pension Calculator | Actuary | Scoop.it

Why isn't there just a simple pension Excel calculator on the internet, so I can do my own pension planning?

Well..., from now on there is!

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Are Health Expenditure & Life Expectancy Related?

Are Health Expenditure & Life Expectancy Related? | Actuary | Scoop.it

Does life expectancy depends on how much is invested in in Health?

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Actuary Info Blog: Pension Egg Choice

Actuary Info Blog: Pension Egg Choice | Actuary | Scoop.it

Imagine you're a new pension fund member and your pension fund offers you the next simple proposal regarding your future pension income. With closed eyes you are allowed to take out two 'pension eggs', either from nest I or nest II. Which nest do you choose?

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Actuary Info Blog: Actuarial Cookery in the Boardroom

Actuary Info Blog: Actuarial Cookery in the Boardroom | Actuary | Scoop.it
Jos Berkemeijer's insight:
Suppose your friend gave you the recipe for a delicious 'Paleo Tomato Soup'. Does that recipe also guarantees you a delicious meal ?
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Confidence Level Crisis

Confidence Level Crisis | Actuary | Scoop.it

When you're fully aware of all the risks and their possible impact, chances are high you'll not be able to take any well-argued decision at all, as any decision will eventually fail when your objective is to rule out all possible risks.


Confidence levels of 99% or more are inconsistent with the primary goal of financial institutions: Take Risk!


Read more on Actuary Info Blog!

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Inflation or Deflation?

Inflation or Deflation? | Actuary | Scoop.it

A sudden shock of inflation, hyperinflation, vaporizes the assets as well as the debts. It could be (the only) way out of this sustainable crisis we seem to be dealing with. The other side, credit deflation, is also a potential 'Crisis Solver Candidate' for restructuring the enormous debt in our economy. 

Which one will win?  Price (hyper)inflation or credit deflation? That's the key question....

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Pension Date Outdated

Pension Date Outdated | Actuary | Scoop.it

Have you ever thought about your Pension Date?

 

The closer you get to your pension age, the more you realize that a full employment break at 65 (or whatever age) is crazy, unwise and even dangerous.

 

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ESM, Rate Rating Procedures

ESM, Rate Rating Procedures | Actuary | Scoop.it

On October 12, 2012 Fitch Ratings has assigned the ESM a triple-A (AAA) Long-term Issuer Default Rating and a Short-Term IDR of 'F1+'. The Outlook is Stable.

All Hosanna one would say. Well almost....

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Actuarial Marriage Advice

Actuarial Marriage Advice | Actuary | Scoop.it

It's an intriguing topic: Do you indeed live longer if you marry a younger woman? Or is this kind of party talk total nonsense?

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Gold as Investment

Gold as Investment | Actuary | Scoop.it

Financial institutions have to optimize ‘Risk – Return’ and diversify their portfolio. This (strongly interactive) presentation by CEO and Actuary Jos Berkemeijer, supports the power of Gold as the best asset class to optimize ‘Risk – Return’ in a given portfolio.

 

Just widen your knowledge about monetary gold by examining the next presentation given on June 19 2012 as a 'Johan de Witt Lecture' before 60 in gold interested actuaries of the Dutch Actuarial Association (Actuarieel Genootschap, AG), the professional association of actuaries and actuarial specialists in the Netherlands.


With the help of a button (""ACTuary NOW" ), Jos Berkemeijer calls for action by actuaries on several main issues .

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Actuary Info Blog: Strategy Outsourcing

Actuary Info Blog: Strategy Outsourcing | Actuary | Scoop.it

Most Pension Fund Boards are sincerely convinced they define their strategy on basis of their own insights.....

 

If this applies to your pension fund, DON'T view or download the next power point presentation 'On how Strategic Advice got Outsourced'....

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Actuary Info Blog: Why Life Cycle Funds are Second Best

Actuary Info Blog: Why Life Cycle Funds are Second Best | Actuary | Scoop.it

Life Cycle Funds (LCFs) are seen as the ideal solution for pension planning. Unfortunately they aren't..... They're Second Best....

 

Pension Funds solutions (PFs), are far more superior to LCFs, as will be shown in this blog with regard to the performance of a pension plan.

 

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Does the Bootstrap Model “Work”?

Does the Bootstrap Model “Work”? | Actuary | Scoop.it

Guy Carpenter's extensive back-testing of reserve distributions created using the popular paid chain ladder bootstrap method has shown that these distributions materially under-estimate reserve risk.

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