Our current emissions path will leave us committed to more than 2°C of warming in just 22 years. It would also commit us to much more warming beyond that given the economic inertia of global carbon emissions.
In fact the 2°C carbon budget is so stringent that even if global carbon emissions stopped growing and remained flat for the coming decades we would still break the 2°C budget in 2041, less than 30 years from now.
In the graphic above we show the speed at which we exhaust the 2°C budget based on different annual emissions growth rate scenarios.
The first one is the same as our initial chart and shows that if emissions grow at 2% each year we break the 2°C budget in 2035. In the second we see that if annual emissions remain constant at a 2011 level we break the 2°C budget in 2041. The third shows that if annual emissions decline at 2% per year we will break the 2°C budget in 2058.
The gap between where we are and where we need to be is enormous.
We have a coal problem. We have an oil problem. We have a gas problem. We have a deforestation problem.
WE HAVE A CARBON PROBLEM!!!!!!!!!
And our lack of ambition in dealing with it is quite astonishing.