Wisdom of the Crowds
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Wisdom of the Crowds
The wisdom of the crowds is a form of collective intelligence, often referred as a phenomenon where the estimates of single individuals are surpassed by aggregated estimates of the collective.
Curated by Sofia Silva
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Decision accuracy in complex environments is often maximized by small group sizes

Individuals in groups, whether composed of humans or other animal species, often make important decisions collectively, including avoiding predators, selecting a direction in which to migrate and electing political leaders. Theoretical and empirical work suggests that collective decisions can be more accurate than individual decisions, a phenomenon known as the ‘wisdom of crowds’.

[...] Our results demonstrate that the conventional view of the wisdom of crowds may not be informative in complex and realistic environments, and that being in small groups can maximize decision accuracy across many contexts.


Via Complexity Digest
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Paul Kroeger's curator insight, May 1, 2014 9:26 AM

The Couzin lab (Princeton) is focused on 'group animal behavior,' and although this paper isn't available directly, the title made me wonder if the observations might apply to the way we make decisions in what is certainly a complex environment...  Perhaps worth a read...

Damien Thouvenin's curator insight, May 3, 2014 5:58 AM

Deux chercheurs de l'université de Princeton démontent la soi-disant "sagesse des foules" et montrent que, si l'intelligence collective d'un petit groupe produit de meilleurs résultats que le travail individuel, ceci est en revanche faut pour de grands groupes. La diversité des points de vue et des sensibilités d'un petit groupe tend à filtrer le "bruit" environnant tandis qu'il est amplifié par une foule.

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Naïve Learning in Social Networks: Convergence, Influence, and the Wisdom of Crowds

Naïve Learning in Social Networks: Convergence, Influence, and the Wisdom of Crowds | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it
CiteSeerX - Document Details (Isaac Councill, Lee Giles, Pradeep Teregowda): We study learning and influence in a setting where agents communicate according to an arbitrary social network and naïvely update their beliefs by repeatedly taking weighted averages of their neighbors ’ opinions. A focus is on conditions under which beliefs of all agents in large societies converge to the truth, despite their naïve updating. We show that this happens if and only if the influence of the most influential agent in the society is vanishing as the society grows. Using simple examples, we identify two main obstructions which can prevent this. By ruling out these obstructions, we provide general structural conditions on the social network that are sufficient for convergence to truth. In addition, we show how social influence changes when some agents redistribute their trust, and we provide a complete characterization of the social networks for which there is a convergence of beliefs. Finally, we survey some recent structural results on the speed of convergence and relate these to issues of segregation, polarization and propaganda.
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The Informative Herd: why humans and other animals imitate more when conditions are adverse

Decisions in a group often result in imitation and aggregation, which are enhanced in panic, dangerous, stressful or negative situations. Current explanations of this enhancement are restricted to particular contexts, such as anti-predatory behavior, deflection of responsibility in humans, or cases in which the negative situation is associated with an increase in uncertainty. But this effect is observed across taxa and in very diverse conditions, suggesting that it may arise from a more general cause, such as a fundamental characteristic of social decision-making. Current decision-making theories do not explain it, but we noted that they concentrate on estimating which of the available options is the best one, implicitly neglecting the cases in which several options can be good at the same time. We explore a more general model of decision-making that instead estimates the probability that each option is good, allowing several options to be good simultaneously. This model predicts with great generality the enhanced imitation in negative situations. Fish and human behavioral data showing an increased imitation behavior in negative circumstances are well described by this type of decisions to choose a good option.

 

The Informative Herd: why humans and other animals imitate more when conditions are adverse
Alfonso Pérez-Escudero, Gonzalo G. de Polavieja

http://arxiv.org/abs/1403.7478


Via Complexity Digest, António F Fonseca, Bernard Ryefield
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António F Fonseca's curator insight, April 4, 2014 5:02 AM

I believe logic emerges from imitation.

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How to get ants to solve a chess problem

How to get ants to solve a chess problem | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it
Take a set of chess pieces and throw them all away except for one knight. Place the knight on any one of the 64 squares of a chess board. Can you make 63 legal moves so that you visit every square on the…
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Collective Problem Solving in Networks by Winter Mason, Duncan J. Watts :: SSRN

Collective Problem Solving in Networks by Winter Mason, Duncan J. Watts :: SSRN | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it
Many complex problems in science, business, and engineering require a trade-off between exploitation of known solutions and exploration of new possibilities. Wh
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Why Crowdsourcing Future Is Moving To Curation, Synthesis and Things

Why Crowdsourcing Future Is Moving To Curation, Synthesis and Things | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it

Via Robin Good, Howard Rheingold
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María Dolores Díaz Noguera's curator insight, November 16, 2013 8:13 AM

Great one.

Olinda Turner's curator insight, November 20, 2013 5:57 PM

Although directed at content marketing, these ideas translate into technical communications where users are trying to help each other find the best technical content. I totally agree that the fundamental way in which we communicate through content is shifting.

irene's curator insight, January 10, 2014 9:16 AM

Perché il futuro del Crowdsourcing va in direzione della cura, sintesi e cose varie.

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Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers

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Collective IQ - Doug Engelbart Institute

Collective IQ - Doug Engelbart Institute | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it

"In Doug Engelbart's words, Collective IQ is a measure of how well people can work on important problems and opportunities collectively – how quickly and intelligently they can anticipate or respond to a situation, leveraging their collective perception, memory, insight, planning, reasoning, foresight, and experience into applicable knowledge. Collective IQ is ultimately a measure of effectiveness. It's also a measure of how effective they are at tackling the complex, urgent problem of how to raise their Collective IQ to the highest potential, so they will be that much more effective at solving complex, urgent problems. As the rate and scale of change around the world increases exponentially, so must our collective ability to dramatically increase our Collective IQ to stay ahead of the curve and thrive."


Via Howard Rheingold
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Muriel Flanagan's curator insight, July 23, 2013 8:48 AM

Engelbart's Collective IQ should resonate with all of us who are interdependant in our workflows - and that means all of us.  Individuals need to be able to work as effectively as possible with others, as that allows for leveraging the collective intelligence.  As important as individualism is, one cannot underscore the power and importance of collaborating to the most appropriate conclusion in an increasingly fast-paced world.

Marilyn Korhonen's curator insight, July 23, 2013 9:42 AM
Interesting concept. This is definitely relevant to collaborative research.
Jan Schwartz's curator insight, July 23, 2013 10:40 AM

Not necessary about technology, but certainly about education.  Thanks to Howard Reingold for the scoop.

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'Herd effect' skews online rating systems, study finds

'Herd effect' skews online rating systems, study finds | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it
People's tendency to 'like' what others like online may distort user ratings for comments, articles or products

Via Howard Rheingold
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Howard Rheingold's curator insight, August 11, 2013 1:48 PM

If you consider the aggregation of "likes," "pluses," "up-voting" and "down-voting" to be useful means of aggregating collective opinion online (do you choose your restaurants via Yelp reviews or your books via Amazon reviews?), a recent study injects a cautionary note. This Guardian article is a good summary of the original research, reported in the journal Science ( http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1240466 ; ), which is behind a paywall if you aren't a subscriber.

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Modeling Complex Systems for Public Policies – a book project

The Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) – a Brazilian think-tank linked to the government – is making a request for proposals for eight IDB consultants to contribute with chapters to a seminal book on Complex Systems applied to Public Policies. On one hand, the project aims at pushing forward the modeling frontier, its methodologies and applications for the case of Brazil. On the other hand, the project pursues actual improvement on the understanding of public policies’ mechanisms and effects, through complex systems’ tools and concepts.
The book encompasses five broad themes: (1) concepts and methods; (2) computational tools; (3) public policy phenomena as complex systems (specifically: society, economics, ecology and the cities); (4) applied examples in the world and its emergence in Brazil; and (5) possibilities of prognosis, scenarios and policy-effect analysis using complex systems tools.
The consultant is expected to deliver a proposed extended summary, a preliminary version to be discussed in a seminar in Brazil (July-September 2014) and the final version of the chapter.

 

http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/index.php/?option=com_content&view=article&id=21745&Itemid=5


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New Study Shows How Social Influence Can Significantly Manipulate Online Ratings

New Study Shows How Social Influence Can Significantly Manipulate Online Ratings | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it
Sinan Aral - PopTech 2010 - Camden, Maine (Photo credit: poptech) Digital ratings platforms proliferate our lives and influence the consumption of wide ranges of goods and services. Given their widespread use and relative transparency, most users have come to expect that the comments and ratings on  sites such as TripAdvisor, [...]
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Evidence for a collective intelligence factor in the... [Science. 2010] - PubMed - NCBI

PubMed comprises more than 23 million citations for biomedical literature from MEDLINE, life science journals, and online books. Citations may include links to full-text content from PubMed Central and publisher web sites.
Sofia Silva's insight:

Social sensitivity, equal distribution of conversational turn-taking and more women in groups are significantly correlated to collective intelligence factor in a group.

It's interesting to observe the wisdom of the crowd effect in a setting where  conversation, i.e. social influence, is not negatively impacting the performance of a goup.

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Collective intelligence: Number of women in group linked to effectiveness in solving difficult problems

Collective intelligence: Number of women in group linked to effectiveness in solving difficult problems | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it
Researchers document the existence of collective intelligence among groups of people who cooperate well, showing that such intelligence extends beyond the cognitive abilities of the groups' individual members, and that the tendency to cooperate effectively is linked to the number of women in a group.
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FuturICT Blog: “Networked Minds” Require A Fundamentally New Kind of Economics

FuturICT Blog: “Networked Minds” Require A Fundamentally New Kind of Economics | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it

“True capitalists are other-regarding” – “Perhaps we have applied the wrong theory, and our economy should be run by different people” The body of economic literature will have to change, implies a groundbreaking discovery. In their computer simulations of human evolution, scientists at ETH Zurich find the emergence of the “homo socialis” with “other-regarding” preferences. The results explain some intriguing findings in experimental economics and call for a new economic theory of “networked minds”. Economics has a beautiful body of theory. But does it describe real markets? Doubts have come up not only in the wake of the financial crisis, since financial crashes should not occur according to the then established theories. Since ages, economic theory is based on concepts such as efficient markets and the “homo economicus”, i.e. the assumption of competitively optimizing individuals and firms. It was believed that any behavior deviating from this would create disadvantages and, hence, be eliminated by natural selection. But experimental evidence from behavioral economics show that, on average, people behave more fairness-oriented and other-regarding than expected. A new theory by scientists from ETH Zurich now explains why. 


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The wisdom of crowds in one mind: How individuals can simulate the knowledge of diverse societies to reach better decisions

The wisdom of crowds in one mind: How individuals can simulate the knowledge of diverse societies to reach better decisions | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it
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Good songs, Bad songs - Social influence makes it unpredictable to say which songs are going to succeed

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The wisdom of crowds

The wisdom of crowds | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it
IMAGINE that you are French. You are walking along a busy pavement in Paris and another pedestrian is approaching from the opposite direction. A collision will occur...
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Most Influential Emotions on Social Networks Revealed | MIT Technology Review

Most Influential Emotions on Social Networks Revealed  | MIT Technology Review | Wisdom of the Crowds | Scoop.it
Anger spreads faster and more broadly than joy, say computer scientists who have analysed sentiment on the Chinese Twitter-like service Weibo.
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