Texas remains a Republican-leaning state because its white residents are becoming increasingly Republican and its large Hispanic population, though solidly Democratic, is less so than Hispanics nationally.
1. The Democrats are hoping for a political realignment in Texas, to get a democratic politician as governor; Rick Perry winning in 2010 by a mere 13 points meaning that democrats are gaining more than a foothold in Texas, the shift in recent years could be in regards to the increase in democratic hispanics. More hispanics being recognized as democratic, along with the "solidly democratic African American population" show that the minorities have some say in Government.
2. In Texas the White population is deemed to be a republic majority, while the Hispanic and African American populace are more democratic.
3. Gallup suggests that there will not be a political shift due to more of the White population becoming Republic, and less Hispanic registered to vote, as well as there being a less percentage Democratic Hipsanics in Texas to the rest of the country.
4. "Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Jan. 1-Dec. 31, 2013, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 178,527 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cellphone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted to correct for unequal selection probability, nonresponse, and double coverage of landline and cell users in the two sampling frames. They are also weighted to match the national demographics of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cellphone only/landline only/both, cellphone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the most recent Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population. Phone status targets are based on the most recent National Health Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the most recent U.S. census. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls."- Gallup Random poll disclaimer
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