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Rescooped by Barry Schachter from Complex World
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Controlling extreme events on complex networks

Controlling extreme events on complex networks | Value at Risk | Scoop.it
Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network [ldquo]mobile[rdquo] can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

Via Claudia Mihai
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Marco Avellaneda talks Systemic Risk

RiskMinds Americas - http://www.informaglobalevents.com/ytrmusvidep Marco Avellaneda, Managing Partner, Finance Concepts, talks to RiskMinds TV about Systemic Risk, and what counterparties...
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Nobel Laureate Robert Engle on VaR, Systemic Risk, and Liquidity - CFA Institute Enterprising Investor (blog)

Nobel Laureate Robert Engle on VaR, Systemic Risk, and Liquidity - CFA Institute Enterprising Investor (blog) | Value at Risk | Scoop.it
Nobel Laureate Robert Engle on VaR, Systemic Risk, and Liquidity CFA Institute Enterprising Investor (blog) In this installment, we will cover the development of the ARCH model, the global financial crisis, systemic risk, and forecasting liquidity...
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Franklin Allen - Systemic Risk (full lecture) - IRMC 2014

A lecture of Franklin Allen of the University of Pennsylvania about the origins of systemic risk and countering systemic risk through banking regulation and other means during plenary session...
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4 Years In, Debate Rages Over Dodd-Frank's Systemic Risk Tag - Law360 (subscription)

4 Years In, Debate Rages Over Dodd-Frank's Systemic Risk Tag - Law360 (subscription) | Value at Risk | Scoop.it
4 Years In, Debate Rages Over Dodd-Frank's Systemic Risk Tag Law360 (subscription) Law360, New York (July 22, 2014, 9:52 PM ET) -- One of the Dodd-Frank Act's key aims was preventing the failure of a huge bank or other financial institution from...
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IMF cuts 2014 global outlook, eyes market volatility risk - MarketWatch

IMF cuts 2014 global outlook, eyes market volatility risk - MarketWatch | Value at Risk | Scoop.it
Reuters
IMF cuts 2014 global outlook, eyes market volatility risk
MarketWatch
But there was also less optimism about growth in several emerging markets. The IMF global growth forecast for 2015 remains at 4%.
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Rescooped by Barry Schachter from Strategy and Competitive Intelligence by Bonnie Hohhof
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Is risk management a component of competitive advantage?

Is risk management a component of competitive advantage? | Value at Risk | Scoop.it

But McGrath’s arguments do not add up to a break with traditional strategic analysis, no more than Porter’s did. Instead, she is building upon it. Like Porter, McGrath finds it difficult to develop the escape velocity to leave the SWOT behind. Just as planet Porter orbits the SWOT, comet McGrath finds itself sucked into its gravitational pull.. Like Porter, McGrath treats risk and uncertainty as an underlying context for strategy. Like Porter, she uses ideas and arguments that could easily be restated in terms consistent with a SWOT analysis. What is interesting is that McGrath’s rationale for going beyond Porter is that business is more complex, risky and uncertain than it was in his day..


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California Policy Center | Systemic Market Risk is Worse Now Than in 2008

The Bear's Lair: Systemic risk is worse now than in 2008 http://t.co/vW3uSTZAG8 #capolicy #caeconomy #capolitics #catcot
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A Systematic Approach to Measures of Systemic Risk by James Ming Chen :: SSRN

A Systematic Approach to Measures of Systemic Risk by James Ming Chen :: SSRN | Value at Risk | Scoop.it
The failure of individual firms in the banking industry poses a unique threat to the entire economy.
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MetLife nears systemic risk label - reports - Business News Americas

MetLife nears systemic risk label - reports - Business News Americas | Value at Risk | Scoop.it
MetLife nears systemic risk label - reports
Business News Americas
MetLife nears systemic risk label - reports. By Business News Americas staff reporter - Wednesday, July 23, 2014.
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Managing systemic risk - The Economic Times

Managing systemic risk - The Economic Times | Value at Risk | Scoop.it
Enterprise risk management (ERM) has become a crucial component of contemporary corporate governance reforms, with an abundance of principles. (RT @itelligence_fr: La gestion des risques est-elle prise en compte dans votre entreprise ?
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Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning

Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning | Value at Risk | Scoop.it

Recent theories from complexity science argue that complex dynamics are ubiquitous in social and economic systems. These claims emerge from the analysis of individually simple agents whose collective behavior is surprisingly complicated. However, economists have argued that iterated reasoning–what you think I think you think–will suppress complex dynamics by stabilizing or accelerating convergence to Nash equilibrium. We report stable and efficient periodic behavior in human groups playing the Mod Game, a multi-player game similar to Rock-Paper-Scissors. The game rewards subjects for thinking exactly one step ahead of others in their group. Groups that play this game exhibit cycles that are inconsistent with any fixed-point solution concept. These cycles are driven by a “hopping” behavior that is consistent with other accounts of iterated reasoning: agents are constrained to about two steps of iterated reasoning and learn an additional one-half step with each session. If higher-order reasoning can be complicit in complex emergent dynamics, then cyclic and chaotic patterns may be endogenous features of real-world social and economic systems.

 

Frey S, Goldstone RL (2013) Cyclic Game Dynamics Driven by Iterated Reasoning. PLoS ONE 8(2): e56416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0056416


Via Complexity Digest
Barry Schachter's insight:

This paper provides additional evidence that financial risk management can benefit by incorporating more insights from the area of complex systems into various aspects of risk modeling and control.

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