Macroeconomics
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Will below-zero inflation lead the Bank to start tightening policy?

Will below-zero inflation lead the Bank to start tightening policy? | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Prospect of quantitative easing or negative interest rates are remote, given the forecasts for earnings and growth
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UK PLC breathes easy again after Scotland's no vote - but for how long?

UK PLC breathes easy again after Scotland's no vote - but for how long? | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Key economic questions about independence plaguing the markets have only been put off for another day
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Did Hyman Minsky find the secret behind financial crashes?

Did Hyman Minsky find the secret behind financial crashes? | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Neil Codd's insight:

Good starting point for an investigation into this Economist as part of an Enrichment exercise

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Carney’s almost promise on rates

Carney’s almost promise on rates | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
The Bank of England has ditched a simple version of forward guidance on the path of interest rates, for a fuzzier more complex version, which some will see as not really guidance at all
Neil Codd's insight:

Of direct relevance to the year 12s homework this week and their classwork. We were discussing exchange rates on the day the £ saw a large appreciation.  Peston's comment on spare capacity is important - hence the scoop

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Trickle-down economics is the greatest broken promise of our lifetime

Trickle-down economics is the greatest broken promise of our lifetime | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Alex Andreou: The richest 85 people in the world have as much wealth as the poorest 3.5bn. That should be a wake-up call to the deepest sleepers
Neil Codd's insight:
Trickle - down perhaps hasn't worked as well as was hoped. (Having said that, absolute poverty rates are much lower globally). The blame is possibly weak and unaccountable political institutions rather than free market economics. The rich and powerful have changed the rules to favour themselves, the market has not been "free". Perhaps this seems paradoxical, but markets can only work well if governments are strong, suitably economically interventionist and accountable to people in order to ensure all the players play fair. The key to a better functioning market is perhaps political reform. Some ideas here for possible reforms are included here http://www.newstatesman.com/2014/01/the-best-europe-we-have-ever-had
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Not by bread alone

Not by bread alone | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
IF YOU look at countries’ social and economic progress since 1990, you will find that, in most cases, it is in line with their historic performance—with some...
Neil Codd's insight:

Some nice examples to show that to boost HDI, GDP increases contribute but cannot be relied upon alone. Embracing globalisation also helps. Not surprising - scooped because there are some nice examples

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Osborne wants to take us back to 1948. Time to look forward instead | Will Hutton

Osborne wants to take us back to 1948. Time to look forward instead | Will Hutton | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Plans in the Treasury's autumn statement to return state spending to 1948 levels will do permanent damage to Britain It is an incidental sentence, but it brought me up short.
Neil Codd's insight:
"The IMF, after assessing the experience of 107 countries between 1980 and 2012, recommends that, after a credit-crunch deficit, there should be a balance between tax increases and spending reductions. In Osborne-land over the next five years more than 95% is to come from spending cuts – a global first in self-harm."
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How to have a sensible conversation about immigration

How to have a sensible conversation about immigration | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
The poor of the world are on the move, eager to live and work in rich nations. What are the consequences? Talking about them cannot be a taboo.
Neil Codd's insight:

I really admire Paul Collier's way of analysing problems and he does not disappoint here. My year 13s have just learnt about the impossible trinity of desirable things when it comes to exchange rate policy (fixed exchange rate, independent monetary policy, free capital mobility).  Here he presents a similarly impossible trinity of desirable things when it comes to immigration policy. As with his other work he got me thinking and has perhaps changed my views!

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Uncertainty and the business of growth

Uncertainty and the business of growth | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Neil Codd's insight:
The UK has been hoping for rebalancing and we are still hoping. Why? Difficulty in borrowing and uncertainty (fear/animal spirits) has reduced the level and rate in growth of investment.
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Inflation, unemployment and UK 'misery'

Inflation, unemployment and UK 'misery' | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Neil Codd's insight:

" ...the prices of things we buy regularly and class as necessities have increased the fastest, while those we buy less frequently and could delay the purchase of have shown more restraint.

This, perhaps, gives the perception that inflation is higher than the official rate suggests"

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Not Quite Noahpinion: Macroeconomics: The Illustrated Edition

Not Quite Noahpinion: Macroeconomics: The Illustrated Edition | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it

Via Shrish Menon
Neil Codd's insight:

Good find Shrish!

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Shrish Menon's curator insight, September 9, 2013 9:43 AM

An interesting article looking at macroeconomics in the terms of general equilibrium. Simple to understand, introduces terms such as "fiscal policy" and "Walras' Law"

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Years of Tragic Waste - New York Times

Years of Tragic Waste - New York Times | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Years of Tragic Waste
New York Times
The important thing, however, is to realize that there are degrees of disaster, that you can have an immense failure of economic policy that falls short of producing total collapse.

Via Alexandra Lewis
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Alexandra Lewis's curator insight, September 9, 2013 4:42 PM

I am extremely surprised to learn that such a large number of Americans (a sixth) require some sort of financial assistance this long after the recession, and the number, although slower, is still growing.

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UK’s current account deficit is worrying – and Osborne has no strategy to fix it

UK’s current account deficit is worrying – and Osborne has no strategy to fix it | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Larry Elliott: The chancellor has pledged to cut the budget deficit, but lacks a plan for dealing with Britain’s other deficit now at 6% of GDP
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UK exports to EU 'dead in the water'

UK exports to EU 'dead in the water' | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Neil Codd's insight:

New 6th form Economists.  This is the sort of article to read.  Have a think about the causes and consequences of the different phenomena. Don't worry - you are not expected to know the causes and consequences (yet!)

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Our economy's getting bigger, but not better - Telegraph

Our economy's getting bigger, but not better - Telegraph | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Self-congratulation over Britain’s growth figures masks a crippling productivity problem

Via SPF Economics
Neil Codd's insight:

"the British economy’s perennial problem: we consume too much relative to our income, and as a result don’t invest enough in the future. This failing is also reflected in our stubbornly high current account deficit."

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Isha Patel's curator insight, March 8, 2014 7:37 PM

Greater employment is pushing AS up, and from far away this looks like the economy is growing. However, when we analyse productivity data, it becomes clear that the UK is lagging far behind other countries in this sense, and the increase in AS is misleading us to think otherwise. Our manufacturing base is depleted, and with a widening productivity gap, we cannot expect to truly grow economically.

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Leader: Even the global elite in Davos are alarmed by deepening inequality

Leader: Even the global elite in Davos are alarmed by deepening inequality | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
In the week when Oxfam found that the world’s 85 richest individuals are now worth as much as the bottom half of the total population of seven billion, the WEF announced that its 700 members view the increasing gap between the rich and the poor as the biggest threat to prosperity in the next decade
Neil Codd's insight:

New Statesman's views on income inequality and why it is a threat

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Coming 'oil glut' may push global economy into deflation - Telegraph

Coming 'oil glut' may push global economy into deflation - Telegraph | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
OPEC spare capacity set to reach levels last seen in the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, analysts say
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Neil Codd's curator insight, January 16, 2014 6:47 AM

A very interesting summary of the author's summary of the world economy with focus on the oil market. Interesting for unit 1 (oil market), unit 2 (impacts on the UK of oil price crash) and unit 4. Even a quick comparison of the Middle East with seventeenth century Europe.

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Argument: Is it time to ditch the pursuit of economic growth? -- New Internationalist

Argument: Is it time to ditch the pursuit of economic growth? -- New Internationalist | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Economist and author Dan O'Neill and journalist and author Daniel Ben-Ami go head-to-head.
Neil Codd's insight:
A good debate that would have direct relevance for a unit 2 essay such as "examine the costs and benefits of economic growth". For example a potential cost of growth is environmental damage and the evaluation is that economic growth can pay for the investment to fund greener technology.
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By George, Britain's Austerity Experiment Didn't Work!

By George, Britain's Austerity Experiment Didn't Work! | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, is claiming credit for improved economic forecasts. His arguments are hogwash.
Neil Codd's insight:

Just because the economy is growing does not mean austerity is a success. We don't know the counter factual - what would have happened without austerity 

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Economic recovery is based on repeating the sins of the past

Economic recovery is based on repeating the sins of the past | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Larry Elliott: Pick-up in the economy is not the result of sticking to austerity as chancellor claims – it's what you get when you keep interest rates low
Neil Codd's insight:
So growth based on debt, imports, rising house prices. Repeating the mistakes of the past
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The trouble with democracy

The trouble with democracy | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Government shutdowns, petty policy squabbles, voter disaffection – democracy doesn't seem to work very well. But what's the alternative? And can we rely on muddling through? By David Runciman
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Neil Codd's curator insight, November 26, 2013 5:20 PM

Not strictly an Economics article but my year 13 classes were discussing how democracies can lead to poor short termist decision making. We should not forget though that the most productive countries are democracies. Perhaps because even though more mistakes are made in democracies, more mistakes are corrected? We should not get complacent though...

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Fallacies of Immaculate Causation

Fallacies of Immaculate Causation | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
Accounting identities don’t tell you anything about causation.
Neil Codd's insight:

Just because S=I does not mean necessarily that efforts to increase S will result in I increases.  Maybe in reality it is efforts to change I that lead to changes in S?  Maybe efforts to increase S won't result in increases in S? Paradox of thrift, fallacies of composition etc...all ideas discussed with year 12 this week.  Perhaps a bit too early in their Economics careers but they seemed interested!

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UK immigration: what if it stopped tomorrow?

UK immigration: what if it stopped tomorrow? | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it

Yet another survey has revealed that the UK public is sceptical, at best, about immigration benefits. But what about the costs of halting it? We take a look at the data

In a poll of more than 20,000 Britons, 77% thought it would help the economy "if the government were to clamp down on immigration and dramatically reduce the numbers entering Britain". We find out if they're right by taking a look at what might happen if immigration were to stop altogether...


Via @AngloCatalans, Henrietta Currie
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Henrietta Currie's curator insight, September 8, 2013 1:28 PM

Depending on the circumstances and the type of person immigrating, it can have a positive or negative affect on employment and wages in the UK.

Neil Codd's comment, September 24, 2013 3:34 PM
Great find Henrietta - thanks. So wages are higher for most except the bottom wage earners because of immigration and the fiscal position is unclear - depends who you ask. Great stats
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Mass immigration has made Britain a less competitive economy - Telegraph

Mass immigration has made Britain a less competitive economy - Telegraph | Macroeconomics | Scoop.it
When Mark Carney went to Nottingham last week to make his first speech as Governor of the Bank of England, media attention focused, naturally enough, on his reference to Jake Bugg, who we are told is a pop singer of some sort.

Via Gunel Latifova
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Neil Codd's comment, September 20, 2013 5:42 PM
Thanks Gunel. I have not come across this link between immigration and productivity puzzle before. Jonathan Portes thinks the argument "absurd"! http://niesr.ac.uk/blog/migration-and-productivity#.UjzAj4y9KSM