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Forecasting: principles and practice | An online textbook by Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos

Forecasting: principles and practice
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Forecating methods and tools.. interesting... workbook, study material and practical help...

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Rescooped by Miklos Szilagyi from The Jazz of Innovation
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Old vs. New IT: Innovate and Drive Disruption or Face Irrelevance

Old vs. New IT: Innovate and Drive Disruption or Face Irrelevance | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
Nearly every company has a story about trying to transform its operations as a result of opportunity or crisis.

Via Peter Verschuere
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Hmmm...

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Rescooped by Miklos Szilagyi from From Complexity to Wisdom
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Systems Thinking and the Future of Cities

Systems Thinking and the Future of Cities | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
The idea that nothing exists in isolation−but only as part of a system−has long been embedded in folklore, religious scriptures, and common sense.

Via Erika Harrison
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Very comprehensive and interesting.... and not only about the cities... Good...

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Joe Boutte's curator insight, September 11, 12:54 PM

This article is a little different than most articles curated for everyday leadership, but is relevant from the perspective that leaders have to consider their entire environment and situation.  A systems approach to leading is indispensible for enabling better decisions and exercising effective influence among the people of one's situation or organization.  In this example, the focus is on the future of cities, but a leader could be focused on the strategy, vision, and objective, and so the concepts in this article are pertinent to your everyday leadership.  Think big! Think system!

Josie Gibson's curator insight, September 14, 7:11 PM

Timely focus on the critical role of thinking systemically as a leader...

Jason Leong's curator insight, September 29, 4:15 AM

"Despite the inherent logic of systems thinking, governments, corporations, foundations, universities, and non-profit organizations still work mostly by breaking issues and problems into their separate parts and dealing with each in isolation. Separate agencies, departments, and organizations specialize in energy, land, food, air, water, wildlife, economy, finance, building regulations, urban policy, technology, health, and transportation−as if each were unrelated to the others. So, one agency pushes hard to grow the economy while another is charged to clean up the resulting mess and so forth, which is to say that the right hand and left hand seldom knows−or cares−what the other is doing. The results are often counter-productive, overly expensive, risky, sometimes disastrous, and most always ironic."

Rescooped by Miklos Szilagyi from Megatrends
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At the 'End of History' Still Stands Democracy

At the 'End of History' Still Stands Democracy | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it

Twenty-five years after Tiananmen Square and the Berlin Wall's fall, liberal democracy still has no real competitors, writes Francis Fukuyama.

 


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Fukuyama's "End of History" 2.0... 25 years later...

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Kenneth Mikkelsen's curator insight, September 16, 1:21 PM

The problem in today's world isn't just that authoritarian powers are on the move but that many existing democracies aren't doing well either.


Francis Fukuyama's new book will be published late September 2014.


You can find the book here: The Political Order and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the Globalization of Democracy.


Rescooped by Miklos Szilagyi from Megatrends
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The Rise of Robotics

The Rise of Robotics | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it

When people think “robots,” they often envision vaguely humanoid sci-fi-movie beings with strange speech patterns. But today’s state-of-the-art robots are a far cry from that outdated stereotype. And they are showing up for work. Increasingly flexible, responsive, sensing—even humanlike—robots are beginning to augment and replace labor in a wide range of industries: a megatrend that is transforming the economics of manufacturing and reshaping the business landscape.


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Sure... more and more area of work will be taken over... practically all which is more or less easy to be algorithmised... already lots of people has no chance to find really necessary work doable only by human resources... OK, it might be not so quick but just check the trend in the diagram in the post and think... 

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Kenneth Mikkelsen's curator insight, September 5, 9:24 AM
  • Robots are beginning to augment and replace labor in many industries—a megatrend that is transforming the economics of manufacturing and reshaping the business landscape.
  • As robots become cheaper, smaller, and more energy efficient, they gain flexibility and finesse, increasing the breadth of potential applications.
  • The rise and expanding reach of this megatrend raise a set of strategic issues that companies must address.
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The Shifting Economics of Global Manufacturing

The Shifting Economics of Global Manufacturing | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it

Manufacturing cost structures around the world have changed so dramatically in a decade that many old perceptions of low-cost and high-cost nations no longer hold.


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Good to know...

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Kenneth Mikkelsen's curator insight, August 21, 3:56 AM

To understand the shifting economics of global manufacturing, The Boston Consulting Group analyzed manufacturing costs for the world’s 25 leading exporting economies along four key dimensions: manufacturing wages, labor productivity, energy costs, and exchange rates. These 25 economies account for nearly 90 percent of global exports of manufactured goods.

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Chart of the Week: The hype cycle of emerging technologies

Chart of the Week: The hype cycle of emerging technologies | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
The Gartner Hype Cycle tracks emerging technologies from the "peak of inflated expectations" to the "trough of disillusionment" and beyond.
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Might be very interesting... still chacking it myself too...:-)))

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Prepare to Be Shocked

Prepare to Be Shocked | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
Four predictions about how brain stimulation will make us smarter
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Do we really want this?

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Rescooped by Miklos Szilagyi from Megatrends
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Business Trends 2014

Business Trends 2014 | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it

Deloitte's "Business Trends 2014: Navigating the next wave of globalization” explores nine trends that are currently reshaping the business environment, driven by long-term, potentially irreversible, shifts in the global economy.

 


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Let's see a one year trend...:-)))

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Nina Lappalainen's curator insight, May 3, 2:10 AM

Mielenkiintoista luettavaa. 

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Letterman Revolutionized Late Night. Ellen’s the Perfect Replacement to Revolutionize It Again.

Letterman Revolutionized Late Night. Ellen’s the Perfect Replacement to Revolutionize It Again. | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
David Letterman, the original late-night anarchist, is retiring. In 2015 he will abdicate CBS’s Late Show, the show that once served as his consolation prize but has since turned into a running critique of its rival, The Tonight Show. Who should replace him? Should someone replace him? Some have argued...
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

A sort of review on late night television...  now Dave is going too after Jay and comes Ellen, after Jimmy... how the whole thing evolved and where it is now...

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Rescooped by Miklos Szilagyi from Transformational Leadership
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To Advance Education, We Must First Reimagine Society

To Advance Education, We Must First Reimagine Society | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
Why haven't education reform efforts amounted to much? Because they start with the wrong problem, says John Abbott, director of the 21st Century Learning Initiative. Overhauling the educational paradigm means replacing the metaphor — the concept of the world and its inhabitants as machine-like entities — that has shaped the education system, as well as many other aspects of our culture.

Via Dr. Susan Bainbridge
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Great article... like it...:-))) teachers as guides... yessss...

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Physicists find evidence of cosmic inflation

Physicists find evidence of cosmic inflation | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
The BICEP2 experiment has detected signs of gravitational waves in the cosmic microwave background radiation, with big implications for the theory of cosmic inflation.
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Well, then, the Universe is expanding... it might even true that Brooklyn too, it's expanding too...:-)))

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Forget Samsung and Apple. This is the future..

Forget Samsung and Apple. This is the future.. | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
Click to watch the video and write a comment...
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

I like this very much... interesting to learn whether it can gain momentum... it's against the "buy brand new each year" trend...

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Is game theory nothing but a fable?

from Lars Syll One of the world’s most renowned game theorists – Ariel Rubinstein – gives his — affirmative — answer in this interview (emphasis added): What are the applications of game theory for...
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Hmmm... interesting... so, game theory - which is based on abstract modeling just like economics - is just the same crap as economics? If a famous game-theoreticien says that...

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Ivon Prefontaine's curator insight, September 23, 2013 4:28 PM

This is interesting. Anything abstract has to show some concrete, lived worth or it is not valid.

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Livermore scientists suggest ocean warming in Southern Hemisphere underestimated

Livermore scientists suggest ocean warming in Southern Hemisphere underestimated | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
Livermore scientists suggest ocean warming in Southern Hemisphere underestimated
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Well, who could be smart enough here?!

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Rescooped by Miklos Szilagyi from Positive futures
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The Evolution Of The Employee

The Evolution Of The Employee | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it

This concept and the visual was taken from my new book which came out today called, The Future of Work: Attract New Talent, Build Better Leaders, and Create a Competitive Organization.

 

One of the things I have been writing about and have tried to make clear over the past few months is that work as we know it is dead and that the only way forward is to challenge convention around how we work, how we lead, and how we build our companies. Employees which were once thought of expendable cogs are the most valuable asset that any organization has. However, the employee from a decade ago isn’t the same as the employee who we are starting to see today. To help show that I wanted to share an image from my upcoming book which depicts how employees are evolving. It’s an easy way to see the past vs the future.

 


Via Vicki Kossoff @ The Learning Factor, Jose Luis Anzizar, Lori Williams, Amy Melendez, Roy Sheneman, PhD, Wise Leader™, Roger Francis, David Hain
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Wow, like it...:-)))

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Tom Hood's curator insight, September 6, 8:27 AM

Nice graphic that captures the essence of how work and the employee is changing / needing to change. It is very close to an exercise we did with our team as we prepared for our move and our "workplace" consultants (Avance') had our entire team map how work was, how it is now, and where they see it going... Here are some of the key areas:

 

From individual work to group work

From hierarchy to flat structure

From Independent group to interdependent group

From internally focused to external (customer/member and brand)

From planned connections to spontaneous connections

From single work point to multiple workpoints

From structured to fluid

 

This also reinforces our approach to what we are calling the "shift change" and how the interplay of technology, workplace, leadership, learning, and culture are all in need of intentional thoughtful planning to get the most out of the new world we are facing...

Hélène Introvigne's curator insight, September 18, 2:39 PM

the future of work !

Quentin Roussel's curator insight, November 13, 4:01 AM

Vers une personnalisation du travail et une liberté accrue. L'employé du futur ressemble fortement à l'image que nous avons de l'ingénieur innovation.

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O.K., Glass - The New Yorker

O.K., Glass - The New Yorker | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
On a weekday afternoon in late June, a nondescript forty-year-old man in beige shorts, a blue Penguin sports shirt, and what appears to be a pair of shale-colored architect’s glasses with parts of the frame missing gets on an uptown No. 6 train at Union Square to go see his psychoanalyst, on East Eighty-eighth Street. As the man walks into the frigid subway car, he unexpectedly jerks his head up and down. A pink light comes on above the right lens. He slides his index finger against the right temple of the glasses as if flicking away a fly. The man’s right eyebrow rises and his right eye squints. He appears to be mouthing some words. A lip-reader would come away with the following message: “Forever 21 world traveler denim shorts, $22.80. Horoscope: Cooler heads prevail today, helping you strike a compromise in a matter you refused to budge on last week.”
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Actually, it's interesting, though iPhone and iPad are already enough distraction for me...:-)))

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Radical New Theory Could Kill the Multiverse Hypothesis | Science | WIRED

Radical New Theory Could Kill the Multiverse Hypothesis | Science | WIRED | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it

WellMass and length may not be fundamental properties of nature, according to new ideas bubbling out of the multiverse.

Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Well,  this nasty Higgs boson has just made such a turbulence that they (those working on the adjacent areas) still have not recovered from the effects... what I understand of all these that if this boson thing exists (and building the CERN on the first place was worth to do...), the latest theories are not working perfectly... Multiverse, supersymmetry, scale symmetry (I like this latter one, it reminds me on the fractals but it might be that "Circuler, il n'y a rien à voir"...:-))), agravity (that's aggravating un peu...:-))), well, I'm just curious what this bloody boson makes next...:-)))... very good article...:-)))

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Rescooped by Miklos Szilagyi from Organisation Development
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16 Clues That the Future of Work Is Already Here - Workshifting

16 Clues That the Future of Work Is Already Here - Workshifting | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
How we work, when we work and even whom we work with are changing. Here are 16 clues that prove that the future of work is already here.

Via John Lasschuit ®™, ronald scherpenisse, Fred Zimny, David Hain
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

True... good selection...:-)))

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Carol Rine's curator insight, August 24, 9:35 PM

Powerful article...I see it happening already.

Rebecca Renck's curator insight, August 25, 9:43 AM

This is a wake-up call to something we already know.  Our world is changing drastically and this means in ever increasing relation to how we make a living and how our children will make a living in the not so distant future.  There are two points that need addressed now to support these changes and provide the best way to prepare our chidren.  Point one: we need to continue to modify education so that children get not only a basic skill set but also some specialized education as they become closer to the working age. 

Second,and maybe most important to us as parents, is that without the traditional office where most of us learned our work ethics and personal responsibility, along with many social skills as we came of age and entered the workforce, these things will need to be taught at a younger age.  Whether it be at home, school, church or organizations, a concentrated effort and / or instruction on integrity, self confidence, social skills, personal responsibility and time managament are needed.  Value based personal awareness curriculum need to be as important as math and writing skills. Even more important is the need to integrate more specialized skill and creative arts into their lives. Otherwise a young adult entering the workforce will not only have a difficult time being able to integrate socially and responsibly from a home office but will not have a skill set that he can market as a contractor.

Tracey Vickery's curator insight, September 5, 11:21 PM

The pace is faster than we have the ability to adapt.  Accelerated, self-directed learning will become the new norm.

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Channels Are Irrelevent

Channels Are Irrelevent | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
SDL research uncovered key behaviors and expectations of Millennials that every company needs to consider as part of their engagement strategy. It’s time to recognize that these connected customers are in control. For maximum marketing impact, understand their context, use the channels they use and interact the way they interact.

Channel engagement is now the prerogative of the consumer. Millennials, in particular, are technology savvy, engage on numerous digital devices and are always ‘on.’ And they expect the same from their favorite brands. This age of omni-channel, ‘right-now’ engagement requires a new marketing mentality.

Where does your organization stand on the path towards the future of marketing? Can you shift your mindset – and your tactics – so that channel engagement is so connected and customer centric that channels simply become irrelevant?
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

It's a very short post about the new directions (of) marketing... Are there any established? What about your well established marketing channels strategy?

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Amazon: Business As Usual? by The New York Public Library

Watch The New York Public Library's Amazon: Business As Usual? on Livestream.com. In April 2014, Amazon and Hachette locked horns in what has become a very public, and still ongoing, battle over contract negotiations. After the online retailer removed the pre-order option, imposed shipping delays, and slashed discounts on the book publisher's titles, the reaction against Amazon was swift and fierce. But the story of the Amazon-Hachette dispute is anything but simple, and raises critical questions about the future of the book publishing industry. What is really at stake for the companies, authors and readers? What larger issues of free-market capitalism and free speech are at play? And what does the Amazon-Hachette dispute reveal about the future of the publishing industry in the age of e-books?

Authors, agents, and publishers take to the LIVE from the NYPL stage to tackle these urgent questions in a conversation moderated by Tina Bennett, literary agent at WME. Guests include: best-selling author James Patterson; Morgan Entrekin, publisher and president of Grove Atlantic; Bob Kohn, attorney and founder of EMusic.com; Tim Wu, law professor and theorist of “net neutrality;” and Danielle Allen, political theorist, author of a new book on the Declaration of Independence and elected chair of the Pulitzer Prize Board.
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Well, is the book a commodity? What Amazon.com is doing to the book industry is just '"business as usual"? Is the price the only mentionable property to a book? Will we really perceive if there will be a narrower range of book "products" or is this a phenomenon being already under way and being so subtile it's unrealisable? A very interesting discussion by mainly panicking book publisher... is this a simple technological disruption or is this something more under the skin type of tragedy what we will never really know that has happened when it has already happened? By saying that I admire the services of both the Amazon and the publishers and I think my vote is for the multitude of sources rather than the one possible source... It's dreadful to think about it...

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Is Yellowstone About To Erupt? | I Fucking Love Science

Is Yellowstone About To Erupt? | I Fucking Love Science | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
  Have you seen this video of bison running out of Yellowstone? If you haven’t, here’s a version with dramatic music.   
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Question: whether animals like here the bisons are not better predictor of eruption of volcanos or earth-quake than man with all his very sophisticated measurement systems?

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Rescooped by Miklos Szilagyi from denkpionier | MAGAZIN
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Arbeitskultur: Wenn die Otto-Gruppe ins Betahaus zieht - manager magazin

Arbeitskultur: Wenn die Otto-Gruppe ins Betahaus zieht - manager magazin | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
Letzter Hafen für mittellose kreative Einzelkämpfer oder Keimzelle einer neuen Arbeitskultur? Betreiber so genannter "Coworking Spaces" melden Zulauf. Auch Großunternehmen mieten Schreibtische in den Gemeinschaftsbüros: Sie wollen ihren Talenten eine Alternative zur muffigen Konzernzentrale bieten.

Via Michael Sabah
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Cluboffice, Bétahouse, new emerging terms...

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Do psychiatrists think everyone is crazy? – Joseph M Pierre – Aeon

Do psychiatrists think everyone is crazy? – Joseph M Pierre – Aeon | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
A diagnosis of mental illness is more common than ever – did psychiatrists create the problem, or just recognise it?
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

No...:-)))

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Rescooped by Miklos Szilagyi from Cross-Pollinators
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The Secret Power Of The Generalist - And How They'll Rule The Future

The Secret Power Of The Generalist - And How They'll  Rule The Future | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it

We’ve become a society that’s data rich and meaning poor. A rise in specialists in all areas - science, math, history, psychology - has resulted in tremendous content. But how valuable is that knowledge without context?

 

Despite the corporate world’s insistence on specialization, the workers most likely to come out on top are generalists - but not just because of their innate ability to adapt to new workplaces, job descriptions or cultural shifts. Instead, according to writer Carter Phipps, author of Evolutionaries generalists will thrive in a culture where it’s becoming increasingly valuable to know “a little bit about a lot.”

 

Meaning that where you fall on the spectrum of specialist to generalist could be one of the most important aspects of your personality - and your survival in an ever-changing workplace.


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Interesting point... generalists will win over specialists because - in the language of Mr. Taleb - they are more antifragile, they can survive in different circumstances while the specialists are "condemned" to the resources of their niches... Good point... I have bought it... it could be a good at rating point also to rethink all the type of educations...

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Lyn Bowker's curator insight, March 16, 7:35 PM

Love this post - having been an extreme generalist for most of my life has enabled me to create new businesses and further  broaden my knowledge....but over the aa LAST 5 years I've dived DEEP into the things I'm MOST passionate about. Now I'm risen to the surface  as one of the few who can take you BROAD & DEEP....

 

I guess that makes me a SPECIALIST GENERALIST by nature. That's what has finally empowered me to call myself a TEACHER, MENTOR & INSPIRATIONAL BUSINESS COACH. 

 

I can't tell you how HARD it is to proclaim this. I'm coming OUT

My story isn't pretty but it got me here and for that I am so grateful. 

ASG's curator insight, March 17, 1:49 AM

This is certainly becoming an essential trait to have.

SITKOWSKA Marta's curator insight, March 18, 5:59 AM

"...  because a single-minded person can’t predict variables they don’t know anything about" 

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THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL: 2013 [SLIDE DECK]

THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL: 2013 [SLIDE DECK] | Trends, directions, future... | Scoop.it
A presentation by Business Insider CEO Henry Blodget.
Miklos Szilagyi's insight:

Well, phablets, tablets, smart phones, plethora of all the dings we use... and how most probably we will use them in the near future...

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