In order to achieve sustainability, we need scenarios of where we want to go: not only warnings and plans, but also reports as if we'd already made the transition. Who would have suspected they'd come from the south Pacific?
New Zealand, apart from supplying the setting for The Lord of the Rings, is a good place to think about sustainability. A small nation, it is relatively free from imperial delusions. Surrounded by water, it's heavily dependent on foreign trade, exporting (for example) dairy products, meat, wool, and wood. Foreign trade would be adversely affected by a sharp rise in the price of oil. One analyst who takes account of the global peak of oil production, argues that New Zealand may be one of the first countries to achieve sustainability, driven in part by need.