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Signs and Predictions of Cold War 2.0

Signs and Predictions of Cold War 2.0 | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it

While it may be too early to call Russia's Ukraine adventure the beginning of a Cold War redux, the crisis is providing indicators as to what a new version of the good 'ol days (yes it's a fallacy  http://goo.gl/MehWiF , but let's roll with it) might look like.  Given the signs, we came up with a few predictions below about "Cold War 2.0" as we're calling it.  As we produce or receive new assessments, we'll add them to the list.  The theme, you may notice, is the embrace (manipulation?) of the Information Age by all sides, which is the fundamental difference between CW 1.0 and 2.0.  On to the list...


- CW 2.0 will be carried out over blogs and social media.  Any player may use anonymous handles to attack those willing to opine.  Bloggers will engage in entertaining, and sometimes concerning, accusations of "false flags." 

  

- The faux press, reporters with biases toward or resources provided by one side or the other, will find and exploit leakers and biased or disgruntled sources.  Al Jazeera will be one of the last bastions of reliable reporting (this is ironic to many, we know).  


- Commercial imagery and other open-source intelligence will be fabricated to support arguments, positions, or even military action. http://goo.gl/ciuefC 

- Energy resources will play a central role in CW 2.0 as they did in CW 1.0.  Gazprom vs. US untapped resources...especially regarding EU customers...will play a central role in American politics.

- The West's key rivals - North Korea and Iran - will come out as winners. (http://goo.gl/KYp1FE).  Arms, energy, trade, and technology are likely coming their way (via Uncle Vlad).

- The Sunni bloc will use CW 2.0 as leverage to urge US to do more in Syria.  The US calculus may consequently change...resulting in an mini-arms race with Russia inside Syria.

- CW 2.0 will invigorate the Defense Hawks causing Sequestration to whither away.  Likely beneficiaries are the US Air Force and the Navy.


- Russian studies and language programs across Western universities are about to get a substantial budget increase.


More to follow....

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Russia's Ukraine adventure will likely change America's calculus vis-a-vis Syria (if it hasn't already) - Meet the Syrian rebels entrusted with the first U.S. missiles sent to the war

Russia's Ukraine adventure will likely change America's calculus vis-a-vis Syria (if it hasn't already) - Meet the Syrian rebels entrusted with the first U.S. missiles sent to the war | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it

The arrival of the missiles has raised the profile of a young commander who has built a reputation as a moderate.

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Yemen air strikes kill 55 Al-Qaeda militants

Yemen air strikes kill 55 Al-Qaeda militants | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it

Fifty-five Yemen-based al-Qaeda militants, including three senior members, were killed in an hours-long series of air strikes on a southern training camp operated by the group, The Associated Press quoted the country’s interior ministry as saying.

Intellwar's insight:

The group issued a video the previous week of a massive rally and seemingly stayed put...e.g. Darwinism.

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Is the Information Age burning the Spetsnaz? - Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia

Is the Information Age burning the Spetsnaz? - Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
Photos and descriptions suggest that many of the mysteriously well-armed gunmen in eastern Ukraine are Russian military and intelligence forces.
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Pentagon: North Korea develops unmanned strike aircraft from stolen US drone

Pentagon: North Korea develops unmanned strike aircraft from stolen US drone | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
North Korea has deployed an indigenous unmanned aerial vehicle capable of attacking ground targets based on stolen U.S. target drones, the Pentagon revealed in a report to Congress.
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C.I.A. Employees Face New Inquiry Amid Clashes on Detention Program

C.I.A. Employees Face New Inquiry Amid Clashes on Detention Program | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
An inquiry into the conduct of Central Intelligence Agency employees began after lawmakers complained that the agency was improperly monitoring the work of staff members of a Senate committee.
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Analysis: Intercepted Iranian arms shipment provides small glimpse of a covert war

Analysis: Intercepted Iranian arms shipment provides small glimpse of a covert war | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
On one side of conflict is Iran - transporting powerful arms to terrorist organizations sworn to jihad against Israel; on the other side are Israel’s intelligence agencies.
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Analysis: Japan MoD Offers Evidence of Chinese Aircraft Intrusions

Analysis: Japan MoD Offers Evidence of Chinese Aircraft Intrusions | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
Japan's Ministry of Defense (MoD) has posted an impressive interactive stop/play website that explains to readers in animated graphic terms the flight patterns of Chinese military aircraft in the East China Sea
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Labour to overhaul spy agency controls in response to Snowden files

Labour to overhaul spy agency controls in response to Snowden files | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
Yvette Cooper says debate over privacy, civil liberties and the role of the intelligence agencies has barely started in Britain
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Should President Obama Use Drones to Kill American Terrorists?

The Obama administration is deliberating whether or not to use a drone to kill an American citizen living in Pakistan, who is a suspected member of al-Qaida and may be planning or helping to organize a terrorist attack against U.S. targets overseas, the Associated Press first reported last week.

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Will the White House’s big data privacy initiative distract from the NSA debate?

Will the White House’s big data privacy initiative distract from the NSA debate? | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it

The White House is studying how the growth of "big data" will affect online privacy. Every day, Americans create data points about themselves that are increasingly being collected, analyzed and used by private and public actors alike. These data points can be reveal relationships or personal information from shopping choices to health-care information, but are also used to commercialize services and perform research. But some civil liberties advocates worry that the initiative is an attempt to shift focus away from the National Security Agency's controversial spying programs.

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US Downscales Use Of Drones In Pakistan

US Downscales Use Of Drones In Pakistan | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
The U.S. will be changing its drone posture in Pakistan. Is this an attempt to repair the relationship?
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Britain to set up controversial drone development partnership with France

Britain to set up controversial drone development partnership with France | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
Britain and France are to join forces to build a new generation of lethal drones as part of a controversial defence deal.
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Will 'NatSec transparency' always be an oxymoron? - US senators remove requirement for disclosure over drone strike victims

Will 'NatSec transparency' always be an oxymoron? - US senators remove requirement for disclosure over drone strike victims | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
Bill had called for disclosure of 'noncombatant civilians' killed before Director of National Intelligence asked Senate to drop provision
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Will Kim Jong-un benefit from Russia/West tensions? - N. Korea, Russia sign economic cooperation agreement

SEOUL, April 28 (Yonhap) -- North Korea and Russia signed an economic cooperation agreement on Monday, Pyongyang's state news agency reported, as part of the two countries' recent moves to strengthen bilateral relations.
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Who didn't? - Germany Helped Prep Russia for War, U.S. Sources Say

Who didn't? - Germany Helped Prep Russia for War, U.S. Sources Say | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
Over the past few years, NATO countries have helped Russia revolutionize its armed forces. Now questions are arising about a German defense contractor that trained the Russian military.
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America’s top spy department: You need better encryption

America’s top spy department: You need better encryption | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence believes Americans aren't sufficiently protected online
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Ukraine and Russia locked in a cyber stand-off

Ukraine and Russia locked in a cyber stand-off | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
Security experts have warned that Ukraine and Russia are locked in a cyber stand-off amid diplomatic efforts to reduce political tensions
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U.S. Drone Strike Kills 5 Afghan Soldiers

An American drone strike killed five Afghan National Army soldiers and wounded eight more Thursday morning, according to Afghan officials. Eight others were wounded in the attack in the Charkh district of Logar Province, an area of intense insurgent activity.

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Ukraine crisis: CIA, not Pentagon, forecast Russian move - sources

Until recently, collecting intelligence on Ukraine was a low priority for U.S. spy agencies, and as a result their reporting on recent developments was patchy, several current and former U.S. security officials said this week.

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Mike Rogers: Earlier Ukraine intelligence could have changed policy

An earlier and clearer warning from the U.S. intelligence community about Russia's move into Ukraine could have put the U.S. in a better position to head off that action, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) said Wednesday. We "could have engaged in a more intense diplomatic discussion," Rogers said in an interview. "There are lots of other things we could have done,  including by the way getting through a period [where the president] doesn't know exactly what we want to do."

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The U2 Spy Plane: Still Going Strong, Still Terrifying to Fly

The U2 Spy Plane: Still Going Strong, Still Terrifying to Fly | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
After more than five decades in service, the U-2 spy plane continues to evolve long after the Cold War thawed.
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DARPA: 'Vanishing' spy tech will self-destruct in 3,2,1...

DARPA: 'Vanishing' spy tech will self-destruct in 3,2,1... | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it

The U.S. military is giving big bucks to IBM, Xerox, and others to develop 'Mission Impossible'-style tech that explodes or decomposes once it's served its purpose. 

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Researchers uncover cyber spying campaign dubbed 'The Mask'

Researchers uncover cyber spying campaign dubbed 'The Mask' | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it
PUNTA CANA, Dominican Republic (Reuters) - A computer security software firm has uncovered what it calls the first cyber espionage campaign believed to be started by a Spanish-speaking country, targeting government agencies, energy companies and activists in 31 countries.
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Afghan Forces Struggle to Hold Land, Defense Agency Says

Afghan Forces Struggle to Hold Land, Defense Agency Says | The Intelligence War | Scoop.it

Afghanistan’s security forces are struggling to improve their combat capability as the U.S. withdraws intelligence, reconnaissance and bomb-detection technologies, according to the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.

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