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Robot maids and not a mobile in sight – what the experts predicted for 2013

Robot maids and not a mobile in sight – what the experts predicted for 2013 | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it
In 1988, the LA Times asked 30 futurologists what life would be like 25 years in the future. So how accurate were their ideas?

 

What they got right

 

The article's most strikingly accurate prediction is its description of satnavs: "Autos will … come equipped with electronic navigation or map systems," Yorkin writes. "Once the driver programmes a destination, the system will pick the fastest route, taking into account traffic information, then give the driver the estimated time of arrival, continually plotting the car's position on a map."

 

Teleconferencing and Skype-style video calls are the norm in the article's 2013 – although strangely each Skype call doesn't start "Have you turned the camera on? I can't quite hear you" – and teleconferencing involves a Star Wars-like 3D hologram.

 

But Yorkin is almost spot on about email and the internet: electronic mail allows Alma Morrow to "send and receive messages, graphics, illustrations and animated figures over her computer screen", while later her mother-in-law conducts "video-banking" using "the Integrated Services Digital Network, which allows the same cables to simultaneously transmit diverse types of information – voice, data and video".

 

And her future newspaper is a personalised product featuring only the stories that interest her, which is pretty similar to the Guardian's mobile app with its sections hand-picked by each reader. Yorkin's version, however, is "printed by laser-jet printer off the home computer", which feels pretty stone age today. Mobile phones are notable by their absence, although the Morrows' son Zach has a "personalised portable computer" the size of a credit card.

 

What they got wrong

 

Yorkin's article avoids the temptations of flying cars and commuter space travel, but it trips up when it comes to robots. Each year we're told that robotic helpmeets are just around the corner, but sadly specimens such as the Morrows' slightly unreliable robotic manservant Billy Rae, who cooks, cleans, does the washing and makes the bed, haven't materialised.

 

"Convenience robots that can perform a variety of household tasks may start hitting the marketplace by the late 1990s," an expert predicts in the article, while at one point Bill Morrow calls the fridge to ask what it's low on and tells it to have any missing items delivered to the house. Similarly in the morning the house "turns itself on, as it has every morning since the family had it retrofitted with the Smart House system of wiring five years ago" – although disappointingly this turns out to mean turning the heating and hot water on, which my house can do, and starting up the coffee machine and oven by themselves – surely a disaster waiting to happen.

 

Perhaps taking a lead from these robotic slaves, there's a slightly dystopian edge to some of the rules and regulations in the future 2013 – residents are ordered to leave for work in the morning at staggered times, and 20 minutes' exercise a day is mandatory during work time.

 

But most interesting is the fact that the article reflects the panic of the late 80s and early 90s about the idea that Japan could soon overtake the US as the world's No 1 nation – something that can be seen in Michael Crichton's 1992 novel Rising Sun, for example. Bill's boss, who arrives by supersonic jet, is Japanese, and Bill is constantly on the phone to colleagues in Tokyo, which is named (correctly) as one of the world's top financial centres and described as much more congested than LA.

 

But past predictions of the future always include the fears of the present. A 1967 US News and World Report article called "The Wondrous World of 1990" included bodypaint that could protect against radioactivity, while in 1987, with the cold war still dragging grimly on, science fiction writer Frederik Pohl predicted that by 2012 we would see a "world without weaponry" run by the UN. All those references to Japan in the LA Times piece would surely be about China if the paper ran a similar article today.

 


Via Wildcat2030
Nicholas Smith's insight:

In this article Paul Owen from The Guardian writes an article reflecting on the predictions made in 1988 by thirty futurologists in regards to robotics and artificial intelligence.

 

The author uses information gained through a previous article written in 1988 by the Los Angeles Times in order to reflect and review on their predictions for the future of robots.

 

Owens mainly focuses on looking back at the predictions made by a group of futurologists and compare their predictions to today's reality. This article was relatively useful when it came to the predictions made in regards to the robots, however the information provided about future newspapers and email/internet did not assist me greatly.

 

The primary limitation to this article is that it was based off an article that was written in 1988 and only provides insight of that of the thirty futurologists, it does not provide any actual fact.

 

This particular article will not be used to create a foundation for my research, although it does provide good insight of what predictions were made nearly twenty five years ago.

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The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT
What does the future hold for people and artificial intelligence? Can we predict the ever-changing industry of Information Technology? What are we likely to see in the next five to ten years with advances in Artificial Intelligence?
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Scientists See Advances in Deep Learning, a Part of Artificial Intelligence

Scientists See Advances in Deep Learning, a Part of Artificial Intelligence | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

Using an artificial intelligence technique inspired by theories about how the brain recognizes patterns, technology companies are reporting startling gains in fields as diverse as computer vision, speech recognition and the identification of promising new molecules for designing drugs.

 

The advances have led to widespread enthusiasm among researchers who design software to perform human activities like seeing, listening and thinking. They offer the promise of machines that converse with humans and perform tasks like driving cars and working in factories, raising the specter of automated robots that could replace human workers.

 

The technology, called deep learning, has already been put to use in services like Apple’s Siri virtual personal assistant, which is based on Nuance Communications’ speech recognition service, and in Google’s Street View, which uses machine vision to identify specific addresses.


Via Ashish Umre
Nicholas Smith's insight:

This article talks about advances made in deep learning, a part of artificial intelligence. This is quite an interesting article as deep learning is the technology which Apple's Siri uses and Google's Street View uses.

 

The interesting concept of deep learning is 'recognition', for example Apple's Siri voice recognition. It is absolutely extraordinary to think that an AI is able to recognize somebody when they speak and react to that person's command or question. Even with such amazing breakthroughs like Siri, in ten to fifteen years, we are most likely going to see more voice recognition programs in GPS's, phones and many more devices.

 

Deep learning is an extremely interesting and complex system. This source provides a decent insight into deep learning and artificial intelligent and was extremely helpful with my research topic.

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Miro Svetlik's curator insight, April 15, 2013 5:27 AM

Deep learning is one of the subjects I need to dig deeper in.

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Artificial Intelligence App Tweets On Your Twitter After Your Death

Artificial Intelligence App Tweets On Your Twitter After Your Death | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

We may not have figured out how to live forever, but apparently we’ve figured out how our Twitter accounts can. Yup, now your Twitter can keep going even when you aren’t. I’m not talking about scheduled auto-tweets or having another person tweet for you. I’m talking about an artificial intelligence that learns your personality and tweets, retweets and keeps your Twitter account going after you are long gone.


Via Scott Turner
Nicholas Smith's insight:

This is an extremely interesting article which talks about having an artificial intelligence continue to send tweets on your Twitter account after you have died. This new application, named '_LIVESON'. This new application will continue to make twitter comments when you have passed away, as if nothing has happened. 

 

"According to the website, it studies your Twitter feed and learns all about what you like, what you don’t like, what tweets you’ve favorited, what tweets you’ve retweeted, and even your writing style."

 

The above quote sums up how it is able to continue to send tweets on your account. The robot actually learns who you are and is not programmed to do certain algorithms. This is what intrigues me, is how the robot is able to learn who you are as a person and write comments as if they were you. If AI's such as this are already being used by thousands of people and advancements such as this are being made, in ten to fifteen years, we could most likely see functioning human-like robots being created, who are able to fully interact with people. This can also be dangerous, as much as it is good, as technological singularity comes into play. As people, we want to be the overruling 'race' so to speak and not have robots/AI more intelligent than ourselves.

 

I found this article generally interesting as the AI that is already being developed at this current time is astonishing.

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Vineet Asre's curator insight, March 22, 2013 4:51 AM

AI being implanted into social networks, other benefits can be for grieving families as well more effectiveness of people who use social interaction sites, allow the user to continuously twit while work in their chosen field.

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The Future of Artificial Intelligence - NYTimes.com

The Future of Artificial Intelligence - NYTimes.com | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

Mountain View, Calif. — It’s summertime and the Terminator is back. A sci-fi movie thrill ride, “Terminator Salvation” comes complete with a malevolent artificial intelligence dubbed Skynet, a military R.&D. project that gained self-awareness and concluded that humans were an irritant — perhaps a bit like athlete’s foot — to be dispatched forthwith.

 

The notion that a self-aware computing system would emerge spontaneously from the interconnections of billions of computers and computer networks goes back in science fiction at least as far as Arthur C. Clarke’s “Dial F for Frankenstein.” A prescient short story that appeared in 1961, it foretold an ever-more-interconnected telephone network that spontaneously acts like a newborn baby and leads to global chaos as it takes over financial, transportation and military systems.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

This is another story which focuses on the future of artificial intelligence and the notion of technological singularity. Not only that, but it pictures the idea of a computer super intelligence. The article speaks about the gradual increase of computing technology power and the future for people and robots.

 

“I see the debate over whether we should build these artificial intellects as becoming the dominant political question of the century,”

 

Above is a quote pulled from the article. This quote is definitely something that may be debated on in the future as we advance further into artificial intelligence and robotics. Roboethics will play a large part in developments in the future when human-like robots are possible to be created and when robots are used for destruction.

 

The author of this article raises some extremely good points about the future of AI and the capability of robots in the future. I also found this article extremely useful for my research as it provides information which directly relates to my research topic about the future of artificial intelligence.

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Facebook users are helping to create artificial intelligence systems | Old-Thinker News

Facebook users are helping to create artificial intelligence systems | Old-Thinker News | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

Recent news that Facebook can be used to predict user’s IQ, sexual orientation, and political affiliation is raising eyebrows. The media is not, however, telling the whole story.

 

Facebook users are in fact helping to create artificial intelligence systems when they share their information online. These self learning systems are expanding more every day as more information is posted. The CEO of Digital Sky Technologies, a Russian venture capital company, invested heavily in Facebook in 2010, saying that it would be “…one of the early platforms for artificial intelligence sometime in the next 10 years.”

 

Additionally, Facebook’s co-founder Dustin Moskovitz is attempting to “replicate the human brain.” His startup company Vicarious is leading the initiative, which hopes to develop software that “thinks like a human.”

 

Are most facebook users aware of these projects? Probably not. Would they mind if their personal information was being used to create advanced AI systems? If it offers them unlimited convenience and is able to know exactly what to offer you for a good night out, who wouldn’t mind? The question is, who else has access to this data?

 

It turns out that the NSA has been developing – and are likely now actively using -what whistleblowers have called “HAL”. It is an artificial intelligence that taps into phone calls, cell phone geolocation, emails, and you guessed it; Facebook.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

In this article, writer Daniel Taylor explains that users of Facebook are assisting in the creation of artificial intelligence systems when they share their information online. This article talks about the self-learning artificial intelligence systems which collects information from people as it is posted.

 

The aim of this article is to make Facebook users aware of these systems collecting people's personal information without their knowledge. I myself, had no idea that there were robots collecting my information whenever I post something on Facebook.

 

"It turns out that the NSA has been developing – and are likely now actively using -what whistleblowers have called “HAL”. It is an artificial intelligence that taps into phone calls, cell phone geolocation, emails, and you guessed it; Facebook."

 

This quote stuck out to me as it is the perfect example of how artificial intelligence is being misused and is likely to be misused in the future as more important developments are made. Roboethics is a huge issue in the artificial intelligence field and this is a prime example of the misuse of artificial intelligence.

 

I found this article extremely interesting as it provided me an insight on roboethics and the misuse of AI and it made me become more aware of what I post on the internet, especially on social networking websites such as Facebook.

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10 Ways Artificial Intelligence Will Affect Our Lives : Discovery Channel

10 Ways Artificial Intelligence Will Affect Our Lives : Discovery Channel | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

Since the start of the 21st century, there's no question that mankind has made tremendous strides into the field of robotics. While modern robots can now replicate the movements and actions of humans, the next challenge lies in teaching robots to think for themselves and react to changing conditions. The field of artificial intelligence promises to give machines the ability to think analytically, using concepts and advances in computer science, robotics and mathematics. 

 

While scientists have yet to realize the full potential of artificial intelligence, this technology will likely have far-reaching effects on human life in the years to come. Read on to learn about some of the surprising ways in which artificial intelligence impacts your life today, and see how it could change things in the future.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

This article intrigued me as it writes about how artificial intelligence will affect and or change our lives in the future. The primary aim of this article is to give a brief list of ten different ways which artificial intelligence will affect us in one way or another.

 

The author of this article, Bambi Turner mainly directs her writing to the idea that AI will be put to good use, however this is incorrect. We currently have warfare drones already in development by numerous militaries of various countries which are used as weapons. Even though we are nowhere near the pinnacle of artificial intelligence development, we can only assume that as more advancements are made, these robots will be misused and used to cause damage, instead of making our lives easier.

 

"While scientists have yet to realize the full potential of artificial intelligence, this technology will likely have far-reaching effects on human life in the years to come."

 

Whilst reading through the piece, this particular sentence really stood out to me. At current, we as a modernized society have not yet realized the potential of artificial intelligence. As the quote states, it will definitely have either a good or detrimental impact on us. Robots and artificial intelligence in the future will either be put to good and correct use or be misused and used for destruction and harm. No matter which, robotics and artificial intelligence will in the future become a part of everyday life.

 

The article only lists a small majority of ways as to how AI will affect us, which is a downside to the article. However, it is still a very informative source and provides insight to the future of robotics and artificial intelligence.

 

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Engineers solve a biological mystery and boost artificial intelligence

Engineers solve a biological mystery and boost artificial intelligence | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

"By simulating 25,000 generations of evolution within computers, Cornell University engineering and robotics researchers have discovered why biological networks tend to be organized as modules -- a finding that will lead to a deeper understanding of the evolution of complexity."

Nicholas Smith's insight:

An extremely in depth article which speaks about the evolution of biological complexity and somewhat relates back to artificial intelligence. The article states that this new breakthrough will help evolve artificial intelligence so that robots will be able to acquire the grace and cunning of animals.

 

The author uses information gained from the Cornell University to write this story. The author primarily focuses on the new breakthroughs in complexity of evolution and relates the findings to artificial intelligence and how this development can help 'evolve' AI. This article was relatively helpful, although it focuses more on the biological aspect and the evolution of biological complexity more than artificial intelligence.

 

The limitations to this article are that it is extremely complex and in depth, which may not be useful for my research topic. However, the article is still extremely informative and sheds light on the bright future for artificial intelligence.

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True Artificial Intelligence not so far away

True Artificial Intelligence not so far away | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

"Scientists say we're closing in on the artificial intelligence seen in movies faster than we think."

 In the world of Hollywood films, technology seems mind-bogglingly out of reach.

 

But scientists say we're closing in on what we see in the movies faster than we think.

 

Scientists already have the ability to create a robot that looks like a human and learns in the same way.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

This article writes about advancements in human-like artificial intelligence. In the article, West states that scientists already have the ability to create robots that are human-like and has the ability to learn. This is an extraordinary step for those in the field of artificial intelligence and robotics.

 

This particular article gives us a clear idea of how far we've come in developments within artificial intelligence and how far we still have to go before a true human-like robot is created.

 

"Once we achieve an AI other than by simulation, the possibility exists that the artificial intelligence will rapidly turn into a super intelligence and they will be out of our control."

 

The above quote is a clear example as to why when developing such super intelligent robots that roboethics need to be taken into consideration. If developments in the robotic field continue and computers continue to become more intelligent, we may soon see these robots becoming smarter than ourselves and if we don't keep it under control, we may subsequently lose control, much like a plague. We may even see the theory of technological singularity being put into play.

 

Overall, I found this article an interesting and informative read as it provides information about the consequences of such developments and the benefits. It also speaks about roboethics, which is another important subject.

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Is artificial intelligence more of a threat to humanity than an asteroid ...

Is artificial intelligence more of a threat to humanity than an asteroid ... | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

Over at Aeon magazine, Ross Anderson has a fascinating story about a group of futurists who are trying to prepare humanity for the intelligence explosion. This is the moment when artificial intelligence surpasses humanity in its ability to control the planet. For these thinkers, AI is a much more deadly threat than asteroids from space, global warming, or nuclear war.


Via RomanGodzich
Nicholas Smith's insight:

This is a particularly interesting article which tells readers that artificial intelligence may be more of a threat to humanity than disasters, such an asteroids, global warming and even nuclear war. This theory should definitely be taken into consideration as we are already making huge advancements in artificial intelligence and in the near future, robots will most likely be smarter than humans.

 

The aim of this article is to put forward the idea that robots could do more harm to us than help us. Robots could also be a threat in the sense that they may be misused and used for harm and not for good, more so. This article is extremely interesting and is definitely something that could happen in the future, if artificial intelligence is misused by people. This was generally a worthwhile read and was useful to my research at it provides an alternative idea for the uses of artificial intelligence, stating that they could pose an extremely large threat to us.

 

The limitations to this article as that it is extremely long and draws out the information throughout the article. I still believe that this is an extremely useful article and something that can be used in my research topic as it directly relates to the future of artificial intelligence.

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Tom Gilbert's curator insight, March 22, 2013 7:42 AM

Many science fiction cultures interpret artificial intelligence as a generally bad thing, is this because of our fear of the unknown? that we could possibly build something more sophisticated than our brain (fun fact: the brain is the only thing to have named itself,profound, i know...) or is this general fear of artificial intelligence root from the fact of how unnatural a concept it is to us. Recently nasa has been concerned of coming asteroids, as far enough as to plan for  some sort of planetery defense mechanism, so comparing artificial intelligence to the impact of an asteroid with the earth shows not only how seriously some are concerned about developments in the technology, but for many it may cause them to feel less threatened by the AI, because of how tangible an asteroid is. If we can see it; it poses a larger threat.

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Domestic Drones on Patrol

Domestic Drones on Patrol | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it
Companies, universities and lawmakers in the United States are preparing for a world in which remote-controlled planes will be ubiquitous in civilian air space.
Nicholas Smith's insight:

This article, which was written by Matthew L. Wald, focuses on domestic drones in the United States. This article provides a look into current drones and a glimpse as to what the future may look like for these particular devices. Furthermore, the article refers to the drones capabilities and its features.

 

The aim of the article is to speak about technologicial advancement in  unmanned aerial vehicles. The author uses a wide array of facts, quotes and media in order to convey his collumn. The information provided in this article is quite interesting and I thoroughly enjoyed reading through it.

 

Although the article is very informative and has depth, I don't believe that this particular source could form the basis of my research topic as it primarily speaks about the features of a particular robot, not about Artificial Intelligence. Nonetheless, the article is a good read and extremely interesting, even if it does not directly assist me with my research topic.

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The Future of Artificial Intelligence - Brave New Machines

The Future of Artificial Intelligence - Brave New Machines | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

 

Robots are here to stay. They will be smarter, more versatile, more autonomous, and more like us in many ways. We humans will need to adapt to keep up.

 

The word “robot” was used for the first time only about 80 years ago, in the play “RUR” by the Czech author Karel Capek. The robots in that book were artificial humans, chemically synthesized using appropriate formulas. Robots at present and in the future will be made largely of inorganic materials, both mechanical and electronic. However, some form of hybridization between electromechanical and biological subsystems is possible and will occur. I believe that the major developments in robotics in the next 100 years will be the following areas:

 

Robot intelligence. The ability of a robot to solve problems, to learn, to interact with humans and other robots, and related skills are all measures of

intelligence. Robots will indeed be increasingly intelligent, because:

 

- High speed memory, long term storage capacity, and speed of the on-board computers will continue to increase. Futurist Ray Kurzweil has predicted that the capacity of robot brains will exceed that of human brains within the next 20 years.

 

- Neuroscience is rapidly obtaining better and better models of the information processing ability of the human brain. These models will lead to the development of software to enable robot brains to emulate more and more of the features of the human brain.

 

- Research in learning will enable robots to learn by imitating humans, from their own mistakes and from their successes.

 

Human-robot interaction. This is an area of significant research activity at the present time. I believe that during the coming decades robots will be able to interact with humans (and with each other) in increasingly human-like ways, including speech and gestures. Robots will be able to understand the semantic as well as the emotional aspects of speech, so that they will understand the significance of increasing loudness, irritation, affection, and other emotional aspects in spoken utterances, and they will be able to include these aspects in their own speech as well.

Humanity’s robotic future

Further, robots will be able to understand non-verbal messages from facial expressions, gestures and body language, and to react accordingly. Advances in brain-robot interfaces also imply that it will be possible to send messages to robots using thoughts rather than either speech or body movements. Hence, robots will share the dwellings of humans, where they may act as maids, cooks, butlers, teachers, babysitters, companions to the elderly, chauffeurs and body guards. Robots and humans will be able to collaborate in manufacturing tasks, where each will be utilized so as to maximize their specific abilities and contributions.

 

Functions in society. Robots will assume an increasing number of the functions needed by modern urban societies, so that they will function as janitors, police, door operators, traffic controllers, street sweepers, traffic light maintainers, delivery vehicles or taxis. The latter does not imply a human-like driver in an automobile, but rather autonomous robot vehicles, capable of responding to verbal commands. Robots will play an increasing role in the health care system, by becoming nurses, orderlies, and even physicians and surgeons.

 

Robot-robot interactions. Just as human-robot interaction and collaboration will improve and increase, so will interactions among robots, making them capable of acting in teams when required. Examples of such collaborations are in fighting forest fires or certain military campaigns. A robot army would include humanoids as well as robotic vehicles on land, in the air, on or under water.

 

Legal and social and issues. The forecasts for the development of robotics described above do not include the major and significant issues related to the legal, social and ethical dimensions of robotics. At present we have no legal framework for handling human-robot interaction. The socio-legal system is largely based on rewards and punishments as means fo regulating human behavior. Punishment is not an appropriate method of regulating robot behavior.

 

During the next 25 to 50 years various countries will develop new laws and procedures for allocating responsibility and regulating robot behavior as well as robot-human interactions. A major issue will be the the question of responsibility for robot behavior that violates laws or customs, i.e., does responsibility for robot behavior lie with the machine or the designer or the builder or the vendor of the robot?

 

Rulers of behavior. The so-called “Asimov’s laws” are no longer valid, even at

the present time. These “laws” concern the duty of robots to always obey

humans, not to injure humans and to protect themselves. In the future, these laws will be drastically limited and modified. Robots will not obey every human, but only certain humans whom they will be programmed to recognize. Unless

programmed to do so, robots will not respond to humans by violence, even if

insulted or attacked. Of course, the major exception to this rule is the use of

robots by the military or security and police services.

 

Ethical issues. Underlying many questions of robot uses in society are issues

of ethics and morality. Even today there are serious ethical issues surrounding the use of drones for lethal actions against either military or civilian

adversaries. These issues will become increasingly complex as robots

increase in complexity, intelligence, and behavior versatility. There will be

changes not only in the legal framework concerning human-robot interactions,

but in the patterns of what will be considered acceptable behaviors of humans

toward robots. New technologies, new moralities

 

Religious and other organizations will define and attempt to regulate the ways in which human treat humanoid robots, since they will be considered quasi-human, sentient creatures that must be treated with respect and not abused.

 

Thus, the changing legal and social framework will deal with the proper use of

robots by humans as well as the proper behavior of robots toward humans, and new sets of “post-Asimov” laws will emerge.

 

Finally, a few concluding thoughts. The rapid increase in the number and sophistication of autonomous systems, including humanoid robots, lead to dramatic changes in society. Robots will assume an increasing share of human work and responsibility, thus creating a major social problem with unemployment and the relations of humans and robots. I believe that new frameworks for these interactions will emerge within the next 25 to 50 years. If they do not, there may be neo-Luddite rebellions, in which humans will attempt to destroy large numbers of robots. Those of us who design, program, and implement robots have a major responsibility to assist in the creation and implementation of patterns of behavior and legal systems to ensure that robots and humans co-evolve and co-exist for the benefit of society.

 

Robots are here to stay. They will be smarter, more versatile, more autonomous, and more like us in many ways. We humans will need to adapt to this coming world.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

Written by Professor George Bekey, this particular article offers an indepth look into the future of Artificial Intelligence and robots. Bekey shares his beliefs as to what he believes will be the primary developments in robotics within the next 100 years.

 

This articles aim is to provide an understanding of what we may see within 100 years in advancements made with Artificial Intelligence and robotics. The author focuses on his own beliefs and from his experience in the field, demonstrates his view on the future of robots.

 

Professor Bekey goes quite indepth with his ideas, instead of simply generalizing the future of robotics. For example, he mentions about the function of robots in society and robot to robot interaction. This article was an extremely useful resource as it provides an experts thoughts on the future of AI and relate back to my research topic.

 

I cannot see any limitations with this source as it is very informative and is written by an expert in the field of robotics. This is an extremely good reference and is definitely something that can be used in my research topic.

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IBM's Watson supercomputer destroys all humans in Jeopardy practice round (video!)

IBM's Watson supercomputer destroys all humans in Jeopardy practice round (video!) | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

So, in February IBM's Watson will be in an official Jeopardy tournament-style competition with titans of trivia Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter. That competition will be taped starting tomorrow, but hopefully we'll get to know if a computer really can take down the greatest Jeopardy players of all time in "real time" as the show airs. It will be a historic event on par with Deep Blue vs. Garry Kasparov, and we'll absolutely be glued to our seats. Today IBM and Jeopardy offered a quick teaser of that match, with the three contestants knocking out three categories at lightning speed. Not a single question was answered wrongly, and at the end of the match Watson, who answers questions with a cold computer voice, telegraphing his certainty with simple color changes on his "avatar," was ahead with $4,400, Ken had $3,400, and Brad had $1,200. 

 

Alright, a "win" for silicon for now, but without any Double Jeopardy or Final Jeopardy it's hard to tell how well Watson will do in a real match. What's clear is that he isn't dumb, and it seems like the best chance the humans will have will be buzzing in before Watson can run through his roughly three second decision process and activate his buzzer mechanically. An extra plus for the audience is a graphic that shows the three answers Watson has rated as most likely to be correct, and how certain he is of the answer he selects -- we don't know if that will make it into the actual TV version, but we certainly hope so. It's always nice to know the thought processes of your destroyer. Stand by for video of the match, along with an interview with David Gondek, an engineer on the project.


While Watson's ability to understand questions, buzz in, and give a correct answer might seem very human-like, the actual tech behind Watson (dubbed "DeepQA" by IBM) is very computer-ey. Watson has thousands of algorithms it runs on the questions it gets, both for comprehension and for answer formulation. The thing is, instead of running these sequentially and passing along results, Watson runs them all simultaneously and compares all the myriad results at the end, matching up a potential meaning for the question with a potential answer to the question. The algorithms are backed up by vast databases, though there's no active connection to the internet -- that seems like it would be cheating, in Jeopardy terms.


Much of the brute force of the IBM approach (and why it requires a supercomputer to run) is comparing the natural language of the questions against vast stores of literature and other info it has in its database to get a better idea of context -- it has a dictionary, but dictionary definitions of words don't go very far in Jeopardy or in regular human conversation. Watson learns over time which algorithms to trust in which situation (is this a geography question or a cute pun?), and presents its answers with a confidence level attached -- if the confidence in an answer is high enough, it buzzes in and wins Trebek Dollars.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

I found this article, which was written by Paul Miller extremely interesting, yet at the same time informative. Miller speaks about the IBM super computer Watson, who appeared in the television show Jeopardy and obliterated its human opponents. The article also speaks about Watson's ability to answer questions in a human-like manner due to its thousands of algorithms.

 

The aim of this article is to provide an insight on IBM's Watson and explain how it actually functions and is able to respond to questions made by humans. The video in the article particularly shows how far we have advanced in artificial intelligence as Watson answers questions asked. The article has a video of the practice-match with Watson and its human opponents, as well as an interview between Miller and David Gondek from IBM.

 

This article focuses on showing off IBM's Watson supercomputer and the workings of the actual computer itself. This article was particularly important to me as it shows just how far we've come with our advances made with artificial intelligence and how smart computers actually are, in comparison to humans. In the next five to ten years, we could most likely see more computers like Watson being produced and probably at an even higher intellectual level.

 

This section is quite informative when it comes to the IBM supercomputer, although it is limited in the sense that it only speaks about the supercomputer and does not mention the future of supercomputers. I also don't believe there is enough depth in regard to how the computer actually works. None the less, the article is a good reference, although probably not something that can be used in my research primarily.

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Robot maids and not a mobile in sight – what the experts predicted for 2013

Robot maids and not a mobile in sight – what the experts predicted for 2013 | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it
In 1988, the LA Times asked 30 futurologists what life would be like 25 years in the future. So how accurate were their ideas?

 

What they got right

 

The article's most strikingly accurate prediction is its description of satnavs: "Autos will … come equipped with electronic navigation or map systems," Yorkin writes. "Once the driver programmes a destination, the system will pick the fastest route, taking into account traffic information, then give the driver the estimated time of arrival, continually plotting the car's position on a map."

 

Teleconferencing and Skype-style video calls are the norm in the article's 2013 – although strangely each Skype call doesn't start "Have you turned the camera on? I can't quite hear you" – and teleconferencing involves a Star Wars-like 3D hologram.

 

But Yorkin is almost spot on about email and the internet: electronic mail allows Alma Morrow to "send and receive messages, graphics, illustrations and animated figures over her computer screen", while later her mother-in-law conducts "video-banking" using "the Integrated Services Digital Network, which allows the same cables to simultaneously transmit diverse types of information – voice, data and video".

 

And her future newspaper is a personalised product featuring only the stories that interest her, which is pretty similar to the Guardian's mobile app with its sections hand-picked by each reader. Yorkin's version, however, is "printed by laser-jet printer off the home computer", which feels pretty stone age today. Mobile phones are notable by their absence, although the Morrows' son Zach has a "personalised portable computer" the size of a credit card.

 

What they got wrong

 

Yorkin's article avoids the temptations of flying cars and commuter space travel, but it trips up when it comes to robots. Each year we're told that robotic helpmeets are just around the corner, but sadly specimens such as the Morrows' slightly unreliable robotic manservant Billy Rae, who cooks, cleans, does the washing and makes the bed, haven't materialised.

 

"Convenience robots that can perform a variety of household tasks may start hitting the marketplace by the late 1990s," an expert predicts in the article, while at one point Bill Morrow calls the fridge to ask what it's low on and tells it to have any missing items delivered to the house. Similarly in the morning the house "turns itself on, as it has every morning since the family had it retrofitted with the Smart House system of wiring five years ago" – although disappointingly this turns out to mean turning the heating and hot water on, which my house can do, and starting up the coffee machine and oven by themselves – surely a disaster waiting to happen.

 

Perhaps taking a lead from these robotic slaves, there's a slightly dystopian edge to some of the rules and regulations in the future 2013 – residents are ordered to leave for work in the morning at staggered times, and 20 minutes' exercise a day is mandatory during work time.

 

But most interesting is the fact that the article reflects the panic of the late 80s and early 90s about the idea that Japan could soon overtake the US as the world's No 1 nation – something that can be seen in Michael Crichton's 1992 novel Rising Sun, for example. Bill's boss, who arrives by supersonic jet, is Japanese, and Bill is constantly on the phone to colleagues in Tokyo, which is named (correctly) as one of the world's top financial centres and described as much more congested than LA.

 

But past predictions of the future always include the fears of the present. A 1967 US News and World Report article called "The Wondrous World of 1990" included bodypaint that could protect against radioactivity, while in 1987, with the cold war still dragging grimly on, science fiction writer Frederik Pohl predicted that by 2012 we would see a "world without weaponry" run by the UN. All those references to Japan in the LA Times piece would surely be about China if the paper ran a similar article today.

 


Via Wildcat2030
Nicholas Smith's insight:

In this article Paul Owen from The Guardian writes an article reflecting on the predictions made in 1988 by thirty futurologists in regards to robotics and artificial intelligence.

 

The author uses information gained through a previous article written in 1988 by the Los Angeles Times in order to reflect and review on their predictions for the future of robots.

 

Owens mainly focuses on looking back at the predictions made by a group of futurologists and compare their predictions to today's reality. This article was relatively useful when it came to the predictions made in regards to the robots, however the information provided about future newspapers and email/internet did not assist me greatly.

 

The primary limitation to this article is that it was based off an article that was written in 1988 and only provides insight of that of the thirty futurologists, it does not provide any actual fact.

 

This particular article will not be used to create a foundation for my research, although it does provide good insight of what predictions were made nearly twenty five years ago.

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What To Do About The Rise Of The Robots? - Forbes

What To Do About The Rise Of The Robots? - Forbes | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

For decades, increased automation has led to greater productivity, displacing some classes of jobs, but creating whole new industries.

 

Innovations like robots in factories, ATM machines and self checkouts in stores have all met with some grumbling, but have also lowered prices while providing more convenience.

 

Generally,the chattering classes have taken it in stride. After all, when poorly educated workers’ jobs are being replaced, they can be trained to do higher level work.  The attitude has basically been, “when computers can replace human thinking and intuition, then we’ll worry about it.”

Nicholas Smith's insight:

This article is primarily focused on the rise of robots and artificial intellegence. It also speaks about the possibility computer superintelligence in the future. When I read through this article, it brought the theory of computer singularity to mind, in which computers and robots surpass the knowledge and intelligence of humans. This theory is very possible. At present, we're making extremely large breakthrough and advancements in both the robotics and AI fields. In the next ten to fifteen years, there most likely will be robots who have the processing ability to surpass the intelligence of humans. 

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Artificial Intelligence: Past and Future | January 2012 | Communications of the ACM

Artificial Intelligence: Past and Future | January 2012 | Communications of the ACM | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

Chess fans remember many dramatic chess matches in the 20thcentury. I recall being transfixed by the 1972 interminable match between challenger Bobby Fischer and defending champion Boris Spassky for the World Chess Championship. The most dramatic chess match of the 20th century was, in my opinion, the May 1997 rematch between the IBM supercomputer Deep Blue and world champion Garry Kasparov, which Deep Blue won.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

This article, written by Moshe Y. Vardi sheds light on the past and the future of artificial intelligence. The intention of this article is to provide an insight into the first breakthrough in artificial intelligence through to what may happen in the future in terms of breakthroughs and developments. What I particularly like about this article is that it is clear, easy to understand and has everything listed in chronological order, instead of mixing up the past, present and future.

 

I found this article extremely helpful as it particularly gave me an insight of the past of artificial intelligence, which I had not known much about before. It also provides information about the predicted future of artificial intelligence, which is helpful as well.

 

 

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Rise of the Robots--The Future of Artificial Intelligence: Scientific American

Rise of the Robots--The Future of Artificial Intelligence: Scientific American | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it
By 2050 robot "brains" based on computers that execute 100 trillion instructions per second will start rivaling human intelligence

 

In recent years the mushrooming power, functionality and ubiquity of computers and the Internet have outstripped early forecasts about technology’s rate of advancement and usefulness in everyday life. Alert pundits now foresee a world saturated with powerful computer chips, which will increasingly insinuate themselves into our gadgets, dwellings, apparel and even our bodies.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

Written by Hans Moravec, this article revolves around the future of Artificial Intelligence. This extremely detailed and in depth article talks about what lies ahead for the human race with the future of Artificial Intelligence.

 

This article's purpose was to bring attention to the possibilities of technological singularity and the possibility of robots surpassing the intelligence of humans in the future. I found this article as an extremely good source and something that provides a well-thought opinion on the future of artificial intelligence and the information provided throughout.

 

Due to its depth, I can't really point any flaws or limitations to this article, as it does provide some valuable information. I found this article extremely helpful and a good source of information on the future of artificial intelligence, which relates directly to my research topic.

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Making Friends With Artificial Intelligence: Eric Horvitz at TEDxAustin

Distinguished Scientist and co-founder of Microsoft Research, Eric Horvitz shares cutting edge applications for advancing machine intelligence. An admitted advocate for empowering machines to perform more fluidly with us, he explains how computational systems will complement human cognition in order to anticipate our needs and help us prepare for inevitable surprises of all scale and size In nurturing and supportive ways.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

This was a very interesting and informative video, definitely worth a watch. Eric Horvitz speaks on Artificial Intelligence and how computational systems will complement human cognition in order to help us with everyday life.

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Google using artificial intelligence to improve image and video classification

Google was eager to acquire the startup’s research on neural networks — as well as the talent behind it — to help it go beyond traditional search algorithms in its ability to identify pieces of content, images, voice, text and so on.

Hinton is world-renowned for his work with neural nets, and this research has profound implications for areas such as speech recognition, computer vision and language understanding.

“Geoffrey Hinton’s research is a magnificent example of disruptive innovation with roots in basic research,” said U of T’s president, Professor David Naylor.

“The discoveries of brilliant researchers, guided freely by their expertise, curiosity, and intuition, lead eventually to practical applications no one could have imagined, much less requisitioned.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

This is an interesting article which writes about how Google is now researching and developing artificial intelligence in order to improve image and video classification. The author writes about how Google has hired a group of researchers and experts in order to help develop a system which will go beyond Google search's basic search algorithm used to identify images and videos.

 

I found this article relatively helpful as it speaks about object recognition, which directly relates to artificial intelligence. The limitations in this source are that it does not go into too much depth about the future of artificial intelligence, besides what Google is developing. However, this article was still extremely useful and a good read. With big companies such as Google already beginning to make advancements in artificial intelligence to improve their products and features, we'll most likely see other big companies joining in on the race to develop artificial intelligence as well in the future.

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The Future of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence (Andrew Ng, Stanford University, STAN 2011)

Nicholas Smith's insight:

This is a relatively interesting video and a worthwhile watch. In this video, Andrew Ng from Stanford University speaks on the future of robotics and artificial intelligence. Ng speaks about how in the future robots could be used to assist people in their everyday activities.

 

This was an extremely interesting video and provided me with informative and clear information and something that I could definitely use for my research topic.

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How machine learning can help to understand brain signals — BrainLinks-BrainTools

How machine learning can help to understand brain signals — BrainLinks-BrainTools | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

If a neurotechnological prosthesis should act upon commands from the brain, these have to be interpreted correctly. It is a challenging task because the amount of data is huge and the signals that the brain emits also change over time. Computer scientists therefore want to leave it to learning machines to solve this ever-changing puzzle.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

This article provides an insight on artificial intelligence which will allow this technology to research the human brain, allowing us to better understand our own anatomy.

 

The primary aim of this article is to explain how advancements in artificial intelligence will allow us to research ourselves in depth with the assistance of our own advancements in artificial intelligence. This article was sourced from the University of Freiburg and is most likely peer reviewed material that can be trusted.  The author primarily focuses on machine learning and the idea that artificial intelligence will be used to study ourselves in the future.

 

This article was quite useful for my research as it gave me an insight in machine learning and how it can be used to help understand the human brain. I did not see many limitations to this article as it was quite informative, from a good source and allowed me to read about and learn about an advancement in artificial intelligence which I had not known before.

 

This article can be used as a base for my research topic as it provides factual information and is from a reputable source.

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Scientists Have Built an Internet for Robots

Scientists Have Built an Internet for Robots | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

Scientists in Europe have put together a "standardised knowledge base for robots," through which robots can exchange information with other robots using cloud computing. Called Rapyuta, the World Wide Web for the electronic persuasion will allow robots "to become more cognitive, and interact with humans in more subtle ‘human' ways."

 

The breakthrough system will allow robots to become lighter and simpler, lessening the amount of computing power on the robot itself. Robots will be able to query Rayuta for solutions to newly encountered problems:

The theory is that the advancement and learning of one individual robot will benefit all the rest. Faced with a newly laundered towel for the first time, a robot could query the Rapyuta database and instantly know it wasn't a T-shirt and needed folding differently - after first learning how to do the ironing, naturally.

Mohanarajah Gajamohan, technical head of the Roboearth project at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, lauded the varied uses of the new technology, which will improve automation from self-driving cars, to mobile robot helpers, and our most useful robots of all, drones.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

Author Max Rivlin-Nadler writes about a breakthrough in Artificial Intelligence, in which a group of scientists in Europe formed a 'standardised knowledge base for robots'. This base allows robot to exchange information with other robot with the use of cloud computing.

 

This article aims to provide an insight as to what our future may look like for advancements in robotics, it also speaks about the breakthroughs that are already being made. 

 

This article leads me to think about the theory of technological singularity, in the sense that robots are slowly becoming more intelligent as we ourselves make advancement in the robotic industry. In the future, we may even see robots become smarter than us ourselves, which can clearly be seen with advancements such as this already taking place.

 

"The breakthrough system will allow robots to become lighter and simpler, lessening the amount of computing power on the robot itself." - Max Rivlin-Nadler - Scientists Have Built an Internet for Robots.

 

This article is extremely interesting and sheds some light on the possible future for robots and supercomputers. At present, robots are now able to communicate between one another. This article will be quite useful for my research topic as it provides an insight to the future to robots and Artificial Intelligence.

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Fearsome UK Robot Aircraft Is Semi-Autonomous

Fearsome UK Robot Aircraft Is Semi-Autonomous | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

There’s a robotic arms race on. We recently covered the US Navy’s X-47B drone, a stealth jet capable of landing autonomously on an aircraft carrier. Well, not to be outdone by its trans-Atlantic ally, the UK’s Ministry of Defense (MoD) is said to be soon testing a superdrone called Taranis. The drone is designed to fly intercontinental missions at supersonic speeds, undected by radar—and almost completely free of human direction.

 

Named after the Celtic god of thunder, Taranis is a £142.5 million ($223.25 million) project under development by British aerospace firm BAE and the MoD since December 2006. BAE says Taranis will “push the boundaries” of stealth and autonomy.

 

According to International Business Times, “Taranis will incorporate technology allowing it to use on-board computers to perform airborne manoeuvres, avoid threats and identify targets.” Flight controllers need only be consulted for authorization to attack.

 

While images of remote-controlled toy planes and quadrotors may enter your head when you imagine drones—Taranis is no toy. The stealth craft measures 37 feet (11 meters) in length and has a 32 foot  (10 meter) wingspan. It is capable of supersonic flight and intercontinental missions, munitions in tow.

 

The US is also working on next generation drones. The Navy’s X-47B is likewise a largely autonomous stealth craft. In 2013, the X-47B will likely become the first robotic fighter to autonomously land on and take off from an aircraft carrier—a notoriously difficult maneuver even for human pilots. Further testing in 2014 will include autonomous in-flight refueling, extending the X-47B’s range and mission capability.

Simply put, if this is the next generation of drone technology, it’s simultaneously awe inspiring and terrifying. No wonder drone warfare is such a hot button topic right now.

 

The Obama administration recently released a memo rationalizing the killing of US citizens by drone, without trial, if the individuals pose an imminent threat to national security and cannot be captured. In December, Human Rights Watch published a report calling governments to ban development of drone technology. The report was taken seriously enough for the Pentagon to issue a rule that humans will always make the decision behind any robotic attack.

 

But the threat of governments misusing drone technology pales in comparison to the threat of criminals or terrorists using drones. Singularity University’s own Marc Goodman haswritten extensively about drone technology falling into the wrong hands. In 2011, Rezwan Ferdaus plotted to detonate explosives at the Pentagon and Capitol using a remote-controlled drone aircraft. Colombian drug traffickers use remote-controlled submarines to smuggle cocaine.

 

These fringe groups need not even have their own drone. As Goodman notes, “In a world where all things connected to the Internet are hackable, so too are drones.” As drone technology includes the likes of Taranis—need we fear intercontinental stealth drones hijacked by hackers? Hopefully not, but it’s a debate worth having earlier rather than later.

 

No technology is completely safe from abuse. Rakes and shovels are useful in the garden or can be turned into weapons; drugs can make us feel better or poison us; and drones can airlift supplies to remote areas or mistakenly gun down innocents. The idea isn’t to halt the march of progress but to anticipate its dark side and do our best to prevent misuse.


Via RomanGodzich
Nicholas Smith's insight:

This article aims to speak about the use of robotics and Artificial Intelligence in warfare. Writer Jason Dorrier speaks about UK's new robot aircraft and speaks about numerous other drones which are used for warfare.

 

This article raises a strong point in roboethics, in the sense that these robots are being misused to cause harm, instead of doing good. This article is quite helpful in regards to the misuse of robots and what possibilties are ahead for not only warfare, but robotics in general. The author of this article focuses on bringing up the points about whether these military robots will be misused by people and the future of drone technology.

 

This piece of information will help greatly with my research topic as it gives a general idea as to what the military may use robots for in the future.

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Ivan Lesmana Salim's comment, March 20, 2013 6:08 AM
The use of robot in the military.
Tom Gilbert's curator insight, March 22, 2013 7:49 AM

Even though most see the development of artificial intelligence as a future full of robots to do our every whim, it is very likely that it will be discovered through militiary actions, much like most of the technological marvels invented over the past century. Plato infamously wrote that democracy ultimately ends with government becoming tyrannious and turning against their people, and it has been shown through history time and time again, in germany, spain, italy, japan even, so one must ask themself how long until history repeats? our leading nation in science and technology (yes, america) may very well use forms of artificial intelligence in militiary scenarios and bring more death to the world with only mechanical parts being risked; no human lives on their end.

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New Leap In Artificial Intelligence May Finally Allow Robots To 'Learn'

New Leap In Artificial Intelligence May Finally Allow Robots To 'Learn' | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

A new iCub robot that may soon actually learn new languages is a stunning development in the field of artificial intelligence — it is an especially dramatic leap considering that in the past robots were simply programmed with information, not capable of adding any through "learning."

 

The experts working on the machine at Europe's National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), INSERM (Institut nationa de la santo et del la receherch medicale) and the Université Lyon 1 believe that if they can make the polyglot robot a reality, the machine may unlock the door to a true "artificial neuronal network."

 

Such a network would allow human beings to finally "teach" robots how to do an assortment of other activities.

 

The innovation came about thanks to the years the iCub team put into developing a "simplified artificial brain." The brain in turn "reproduces certain types of so-called 'recurrent' connections observed in the human brain," writes Science Daily.

 

The system allows the robot to analyze and understand new phrases. These sentences may include new syntax/grammar structure, as well. Beyond this, the robot will have the ability to link together two different sentences and complete the phrase before spoken.

 

Fashioned with a byzantine foundation powered by 53 separate motors, the iCub is already capable of movement in the head, arms, hands, waist and legs. iCub's development team is currently engaged in giving the robot a sense of touch, as it already possesses a sense of "proprioception" (body configuration) and can see and hear, reports Red Orbit.

 

Before being taught how to "learn" language, Red Orbit says the iCub was taught how to balance on two legs.

"In tests with INSERM," continues Red Orbit, "researchers asked the iCub to point to a guitar, shown in the form of a blue object; and then asked the robot to point to a violin, shown as a red object. Prior to each task the robot was required to repeat the sentence and explain that it had fully understood the task it was asked to accomplish."

 

Because the human brain processes language at a real-time speed and creates expectations as people speak, the days of having an actual conversation with an iCub robot are still part of a sci-fi future that only might be coming to a store near you.

"At present, engineers are simply unable to program all of the knowledge required in a robot," says Dr. Peter Ford Dominey of the Robot Cognition

 

Laboratory at INSERM and research director at CNRS. "We now know that the way in which robots acquire their knowledge of the world could be partially achieved through a learning process — in the same way as children."

In addition to conversing with a robot and truly teaching it to learn, this research could also be of value in treating the linguistics malfunctions of sufferers of Parkinson's disease.

Nicholas Smith's insight:

Written by Matthew Klickstein, this article speaks about a new innovation in artificial intelligence, a new robot called iCub, which may soon be able to learn new languages.

 

The article's focus is to bring attention to the new iCub robot that will soon have the ability to learn new languages without being programmed with the information. The author of this article focuses on the new and innovative group of experts who created the robot and its features. I believe that this article is quite useful to my research as it displays the advancements made in AI and gives a sneak peek as to what our future will look like in five to ten years, considering we are already developing robots which are able to be taught.

 

In conclusion, this article is extremely informative and relevant to my research topic as it speaks about a new robot which is the pinnacle of AI with its ability to learn without the need for pre-programming the information into it, unlike most robots. I believe that this article can be used in my research topic as it is quite informative and provides insight to our future.

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Bryan: The next big thing may be artificial intelligence

Bryan: The next big thing may be artificial intelligence | The Future of Artificial Intelligence - 1012ICT | Scoop.it

MONTREAL — It’s been two years since an IBM computer named Watson humbled humankind, or at least the part of it that takes quiz shows seriously, by beating two carbon-based Jeopardy champions at their own game. Now a prominent investment analyst suggests that episodes like this are something we’d better get used to.

 

This is more than an observation about the sweep of technological progress. It has immediate investment implications, believes economist Peter Berezin, chief strategist at Montreal’s BCA Research

 

More than a decade after the tech wreck of the early 2000s left a generation of investors chary of such stocks, it’s time to rethink, Berezin said on Friday. A major resurgence of high-tech companies could well be a key investment theme of the next decade or two.

 

Laying out his thesis in the current issue of The Bank Credit Analyst, Berezin notes that for the first time in history, we are able to create technologies that quickly boost human intellectual powers.

 

Although that’s of remarkable importance in itself, it also has specific economic implications, Berezin notes. He believes most of humankind’s long-term economic progress — from bare subsistence a few hundred years ago — stems from technological gains triggered by a gradual rise in intelligence. If this rise can be greatly accelerated by new technologies like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, nanotechnology and robotics, the implications are breathtaking, not least for the companies that make this possible.

 

Over the longer term, perhaps in 20 years or more, we could even be talking about something called the “technological singularity,” a point when human history ends, to be replaced by whatever happens in a world run by computers or other devices whose intelligence exceeds our own.

 

But for every wise person who believes this singularity is on its way — and this speculation about self-improving machines goes back to the middle of the 19th century, when the first mechanical calculators were invented — there’s another who thinks it’s unlikely.

 

Intel co-founder Gordon Moore has stated that “I am a skeptic.” Ironically, his accurate 1965 prediction that the power of computer chips would tend to double every two years is a key support for the idea that machine intelligence might surpass that of humans. But “I don’t think this kind of thing is likely to happen, at least for a long time,” he told a 2008 computing conference.

 

In any event, a more immediate question for investors is whether the tech sector is headed for a very big upturn as a result of the same trends that excite singularity theorists.

 

Berezin thinks it is. For the first time in history, there are ways to boost intelligence much more rapidly than by improving nutrition and health. An obvious one is the steadily rising power and smaller size of our computers, particularly now that some devices are being linked directly to the human nervous system, for example to provide sight to the blind.

 

And we should also think about the power of biotechnology. The cost to sequence the human genome has fallen even faster than that of computer power, notes Berezin.

 

On the outskirts of Shenzhen, China, he points out, a biotech company known as BGI-Shenzen has 4,000 scientists at work. Some are studying the entire genomes of 1,000 brilliant individuals in order to isolate the genetic characteristics that contribute to high intelligence. “They will probably succeed,” Berezin says, based on what is already known about links between genetic variation and intelligence.

 

Some of these advances can raise serious ethical questions, but once these are sorted out, there’s not much question that technologies this powerful will be able to generate enormous revenues.

 

Since tech-wary investors continue to shy away from this sector, tech stocks look now like a bargain to Berezin, trading at price-to-earnings ratios about seven per cent below those of industrial stocks in general. A more typical valuation over the past three decades has been around 40 per cent above the industrial average, he notes, reflecting profit growth over this period that’s been nearly twice as strong as for industrial stocks in general.

 

Here’s one example of tech’s growing capabilities. Since his Jeopardy triumph, Watson has tripled his processing speed and shrunk from the size of a room to that of a pizza box. And he’s matured, moving from quiz-show showboating to diagnosing lung-cancer xX-rays — with nearly double the accuracy of the best-trained doctors.

 

Nicholas Smith's insight:

This article, written by Jay Bryan, speaks about the future of artificial intelligence, through the likes of the IBM super computer, Watson, which appeared on the renowned television show, Jeopardy. Bryan explains that with the current rise of technology, we may soon see computing systems with greater intelligence than that of humans.

 

The aim of this article is to present the notion that super computers are continuing to become more intelligent with our advances in technology. The author also explains how it may be possible for computers to one day surpass the intelligence of humans. This information is sourced from research made by Owens and quotes made by Peter Berezin, chief strategist at Montreal’s BCA Research and Intel co-founder Gordon Moore.

 

This article mainly focuses on evaluation and analysing the possibility of super computers surpassing the intelligence of humans in the future. This article is quite relevant to my interests and is helpful towards my researched topic as it speaks about the advances in artificial intelligence through the likes of Watson, the super computer.

 

To conclude, this article provides fairly decent insight on the future of artificial intelligence and explains that as we continue to make technological advances, we will soon see computers gradually becoming more intelligent. This article will be useful for my research and it will allow me to take quotes from it, especially that of Peter Berezin's, the chief strategist at Montreal's BCA Research.

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