technology and le...
Follow
Find
47 views | +0 today
 
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Startup Revolution
onto technology and leadership
Scoop.it!

Content Marketing, Storytelling and UGC are the New SEO

Content Marketing, Storytelling and UGC are the New SEO | technology and leadership | Scoop.it

Startups Can Jump The Class
If you are new to content marketing understanding how content marketing's four gears create a "virtual cycle" can help you jump the class. Content marketing's gears:

* Curation.
* Creation.
* Social.

* Ecommerce.

Clean Slate content marketers, thos so new to the game they have few preconceived ideas, can move to the head of the class by organizing their marketing differently and in alignment with ideas shared in Content Marketing's Gears.  


Via Martin (Marty) Smith
Tom Cockburn's insight:

looks useful stuff to test in practice

more...
Marco Gabrielli's curator insight, September 15, 2013 6:21 AM

"Curation is LISTENING. Curation is listening with intent. When, like Robin Good, you curate an important pool of information such as "cool new social media and Internet marketing tools" followers can spend LESS time worrying about finding new cool tools themselves. We learn where to go WHEN we need certain kinds of information."

 

 

 -- But curation is also a Great WORK, which allows us to understand the economics of information on the web. :-)


(Ringrazio Stefano per il link)

Level343's comment, September 17, 2013 1:14 PM
Hey Angela, until we no longer use content to communicate It will continue to be King :-)
Level343's comment, September 17, 2013 1:15 PM
Marco, grazie a lei :-)

From around the web

Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Digital Presentations in Education
Scoop.it!

Loopster - Free Online Video Editor

Loopster  - Free Online Video Editor | technology and leadership | Scoop.it
Download Loopster iPhone/iPad video editing app to create social media, education, and professional presentation videos. Shoot, edit, carve, splice, add text comments, slow-motion effect, etc. with Loopster video editing app.

Via Baiba Svenca
Tom Cockburn's insight:

sounds good

more...
Baiba Svenca's curator insight, October 12, 9:22 AM

Loopster lets you edit your videos on your PC as well as your iPad or iPhone. You can crop, rotate, zoom your video, add sound effects, music and text, insert video fragments etc.

Free plan with 3 GB of cloud storage.

camille's curator insight, October 12, 4:13 PM

video editor

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Digital Presentations in Education
Scoop.it!

Presentious - share live presentations

Presentious - share live presentations | technology and leadership | Scoop.it

Presentious turns your live presentations into recordings that pair your audio with each slide. It’s a novel, yet powerful format that combines the narrative structure of slides with the context of commentary.


Via Baiba Svenca
more...
Mª Jesús García S.M.'s curator insight, October 28, 2:40 AM

Presentations

Елена Гончарова's curator insight, October 31, 1:11 PM

добавить ваше понимание ...

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from E-Learning and Online Teaching
Scoop.it!

Great Polling Tools Teachers Must Explore - EdTechReview™ (ETR)

Great Polling Tools Teachers Must Explore - EdTechReview™ (ETR) | technology and leadership | Scoop.it

 whether you are Prasanna Bharti: Polling is the best way to collect student’s feedback. With the access to technology polling has become easy and teachers can create amazing polls for their classroom with these amazing tools.


Via Dennis T OConnor
Tom Cockburn's insight:

worth reviewing whether you are a tech expert or amateur

more...
Dennis T OConnor's curator insight, October 19, 2:16 PM

Here's a recent 'round up' article on polling tools. Dig in to find one that fits your needs. 

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from E-Learning and Online Teaching
Scoop.it!

Edutopia: Mastering Online Discussion Board Facilitation


Via Dennis T OConnor
more...
Dennis T OConnor's curator insight, September 20, 8:56 PM

Best practices, Netiquette, Time Management tips... all in one sweet pdf package.

Gary Harwell's curator insight, October 4, 3:05 AM

lots of good stuff here

Rosemary Tyrrell's curator insight, October 4, 12:55 PM

A PDF with tons of great insights. 

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Digital Presentations in Education
Scoop.it!

EDpuzzle - prepare a video for your lessons

EDpuzzle - prepare a video for your lessons | technology and leadership | Scoop.it
Make any video your lesson. Edit a video by cropping it, adding your voice or embedding questions. Then, track your students with powerful hassle-free analytics.

 


Via Baiba Svenca
Tom Cockburn's insight:

Looks useful at first glance

more...
tom jackson's curator insight, August 27, 8:45 AM

Yes, Barb's insights are right on target.  I have been using EdPuzzle and find it easy to use and providing a complete package for teachers who want to ascertain which students viewed the video, answered the embedded questions, which questions were answered correctly or what did they understand from the video!   Highly recommend.

tom jackson's curator insight, August 27, 8:45 AM

Yes, Barb's insights are right on target.  I have been using EdPuzzle and find it easy to use and providing a complete package for teachers who want to ascertain which students viewed the video, answered the embedded questions, which questions were answered correctly or what did they understand from the video!   Highly recommend.

Miguel Paul Trijaud Calderón's curator insight, September 1, 6:04 AM

Edpuzzle -> Add voice or embed questions to ease your students understanding. 

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from From Complexity to Wisdom
Scoop.it!

The Power of Networks | World Economic Forum 2012

The Power of Networks | World Economic Forum 2012 | technology and leadership | Scoop.it
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is a Geneva-based non-profit organization best known for its Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, the Annual Meeting of New Champions in China (Summer Davos) and the Summit on the Global Agenda in Dubai.

Via Erika Harrison
more...
Erika Harrison's curator insight, August 9, 2013 1:43 PM

"*Nowadays, any organization should employ network scientists/analysts who are able to map and analyse complex systems that are of importance to the organization (e.g. the organization itself, its activities, a country’s economic activities, transportation networks, research networks).

 

*Interconnectivity is beneficial but also brings in vulnerability: if you and I are connected we can share resources; meanwhile your problems can become mine and vice versa.

 

*The concept of “crystallized imagination” refers to things that are first in our head and then become reality. This concept can be turned into network applied research on economic complexity of a country’s economic activities and development prospects".

Jason Leong's curator insight, November 6, 9:23 PM

Network science — the mapping and visualisation of the networked systems that make up our society, economies, and organisations — is set to become the new tool for informing design. (It's about time!)

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from The Digital High Street
Scoop.it!

Retail to e-Tail – Digital Isn't Just About e-Commerce

Retail to e-Tail – Digital Isn't Just About e-Commerce | technology and leadership | Scoop.it
With the continued growth of e-Commerce, is the high street really dying? This was a poignant questi (With the continued growth of ecommerce is the high street really dying?

Via WillesdenGreen Town Team
Tom Cockburn's insight:

Phase shift in what folk will go outdoors for it seems.

more...
WillesdenGreen Town Team's curator insight, March 22, 2:34 PM

Well is the High street really dying? If the state of our high street is anything to go by, then the answer is yes. I've seen more closures this year in the 'main' shopping area and no new lets except in our pop-up. This is bad news if we don't go digital...

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

The future lies in uncertainty

 

Statisticians have celebrated a lot recently. 2013 marked the 300th anniversary of Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi, which used probability theory to explore the properties of statistics as more observations were taken. It was also the 250th anniversary of Thomas Bayes' essay on how humans can sequentially learn from experience, steadily updating their beliefs as more data become available (1). And it was the International Year of Statistics (2). Now that the bunting has been taken down, it is a good time to take stock of recent developments in statistical science and examine its role in the age of Big Data.
Much enthusiasm for statistics hangs on the ever-increasing availability of large data sets, particularly when something has to be ranked or classified. These situations arise, for example, when deciding which book to recommend, working out where your arm is when practicing golf swings in front of a games console, or (if you're a security agency) deciding whose private e-mail to read first. Purely data-based approaches, under the title of machine-learning, have been highly successful in speech recognition, real-time interpretation of moving images, and online translation.

 

The future lies in uncertainty
. D. J. Spiegelhalter

Science 18 July 2014:
Vol. 345 no. 6194 pp. 264-265
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1251122


Via Complexity Digest
more...
Complexity Digest's curator insight, July 18, 6:25 PM

“Predicting the past is very easy. Predicting the future is not so easy” -Ignacio Méndez

Tom Cockburn's curator insight, July 31, 3:20 AM

 ay seem banal comment but uncertainty,ambiguity and surprise are increasingly core features in the world today in the second machine age and the internet of things has arrived

Claude Emond's curator insight, August 3, 8:01 PM

Not much to say here about that! You cannot predict the future. You can influence it though ! :)

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

Self-organization on social media: endo-exo bursts and baseline fluctuations

A salient dynamic property of social media is bursting behavior. In this paper, we study bursting behavior in terms of the temporal relation between a preceding baseline fluctuation and the successive burst response using a frequency time series of 3,000 keywords on Twitter. We found that there is a fluctuation threshold up to which the burst size increases as the fluctuation increases and that above the threshold, there appears a variety of burst sizes. We call this threshold the critical threshold. Investigating this threshold in relation to endogenous bursts and exogenous bursts based on peak ratio and burst size reveals that the bursts below this threshold are endogenously caused and above this threshold, exogenous bursts emerge. Analysis of the 3,000 keywords shows that all the nouns have both endogenous and exogenous origins of bursts and that each keyword has a critical threshold in the baseline fluctuation value to distinguish between the two. Having a threshold for an input value for activating the system implies that Twitter is an excitable medium. These findings are useful for characterizing how excitable a keyword is on Twitter and could be used, for example, to predict the response to particular information on social media.

Self-organization on social media: endo-exo bursts and baseline fluctuations


Mizuki Oka, Yasuhiro Hashimoto, Takashi Ikegami
http://arxiv.org/abs/1407.6447


Via Complexity Digest
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

Stigmergy as a Universal Coordination Mechanism: components, varieties and applications

The concept of stigmergy has been used to analyze self-organizing activities in an ever-widening range of domains, from social insects via robotics and social media to human society. Yet, it is still poorly understood, and as such its full power remains underappreciated. The present paper clarifies the issue by defining stigmergy as a mechanism of indirect coordination in which the trace left by an action in a medium stimulates a subsequent action. It then analyses the fundamental components of the definition: action, agent, medium, trace and coordination. Stigmergy enables complex, coordinated activity without any need for planning, control, communication, simultaneous presence, or even mutual awareness. This makes the concept applicable to a very broad variety of cases, from chemical reactions to individual cognition and Internet-supported collaboration in Wikipedia.  The paper classifies different varieties of stigmergy according to general aspects (number of agents, scope, persistence, sematectonic vs. marker-based, and quantitative vs. qualitative), while emphasizing the fundamental continuity between these cases. This continuity can be understood from a non-linear, self-organizing dynamic that lets more complex forms of coordination evolve out of simpler ones. The paper concludes with two specifically human applications in cognition and cooperation, suggesting that without stigmergy these phenomena may never have evolved.

 

Heylighen, F. (2015). Stigmergy as a Universal Coordination Mechanism: components, varieties and applications. To appear in T. Lewis & L. Marsh (Eds.), Human Stigmergy: Theoretical Developments and New Applications, Studies in Applied Philosophy, Epistemology and Rational Ethics. Springer.
http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/papers/stigmergy-varieties.pdf


Via Complexity Digest
Tom Cockburn's insight:

Indirect coordination in self organising

more...
Karlos Svoboda's curator insight, August 5, 4:42 PM

To je počteníčko to Vám povim a pak, že tomu nerozumí

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

Complexity at the social science interface

This article introduces a special issue of Complexity dedicated to the increasingly important element of complexity science that engages with social policy. We introduce and frame an emerging research agenda that seeks to enhance social policy by working at the interface between the social sciences and the physical sciences (including mathematics and computer science), and term this research area the “social science interface” by analogy with research at the life sciences interface. We locate and exemplify the contribution of complexity science at this new interface before summarizing the contributions collected in this special issue and identifying some common themes that run through them.


Complexity at the social science interface
Nigel Gilbert and Seth Bullock

Complexity
Volume 19, Issue 6, pages 1–4, July/August 2014

http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cplx.21550


Special Issue on Complexity Science and Social Policy

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cplx.v19.6/issuetoc


Via Complexity Digest
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

“What Is the Teacher Trying to Teach Students if They Are All Busy Constructing Their Own Private Worlds?”: Introduction to the Special Issue

“What Is the Teacher Trying to Teach Students if They Are All Busy Constructing Their Own Private Worlds?”: Introduction to the Special Issue | technology and leadership | Scoop.it

Context: Ernst von Glasersfeld introduced radical constructivism in 1974 as a new interpretation of Jean Piaget’s constructivism to give new meanings to the notions of knowledge, communication, and reality. He also claimed that RC would affect traditional theories of education. Problem: After 40 years it has become necessary to review and evaluate von Glasersfeld’s claim. Also, has RC been successful in taking the “social turn” in educational research, or is it unable to go beyond “private worlds? Method: We provide an overview of contributed articles that were written with the aim of showing whether RC has an impact on educational research, and we discuss three core issues: Can RC account for inter-individual aspects? Is RC a theory of learning? And should Piaget be regarded as a radical constructivist? Results: We argue that the contributed papers demonstrate the efficiency of the application of RC to educational research and practice. Our argumentation also shows that in RC it would be misleading to claim a dichotomy between cognition and social interaction (rather, social constructivism is a radical constructivism), that RC does not contain a theory of mathematics learning any more or less than it contains a theory of mathematics teaching, and that Piaget should not be considered a mere trivial constructivist. Implications: Still one of the most challenging influences on educational research and practice, RC is ready to embark on many further questions, including its relationship with other constructivist paradigms, and to make progress in the social dimension.


Riegler A. & Steffe L. P. (2014) “What Is the Teacher Trying to Teach Students if They Are All Busy Constructing Their Own Private Worlds?”: Introduction to the Special Issue. Constructivist Foundations 9(3): 297–301. Available at http://www.univie.ac.at/constructivism/journal/9/3/297.editorial


Via Complexity Digest
Tom Cockburn's insight:

Think,plan,act,interact,react,connect and disconnect

more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

The Rise of Social Bots

The Turing test asked whether one could recognize the behavior of a human from that of a computer algorithm. Today this question has suddenly become very relevant in the context of social media, where text constraints limit the expressive power of humans, and real incentives abound to develop human-mimicking software agents called social bots. These elusive entities wildly populate social media ecosystems, often going unnoticed among the population of real people. Bots can be benign or harmful, aiming at persuading, smearing, or deceiving. Here we discuss the characteristics of modern, sophisticated social bots, and how their presence can endanger online ecosystems and our society. We then discuss current efforts aimed at detection of social bots in Twitter. Characteristics related to content, network, sentiment, and temporal patterns of activity are imitated by bots but at the same time can help discriminate synthetic behaviors from human ones, yielding signatures of engineered social tampering.

 

The Rise of Social Bots
Emilio Ferrara, Onur Varol, Clayton Davis, Filippo Menczer, Alessandro Flammini

http://arxiv.org/abs/1407.5225


Via Complexity Digest
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Digital Presentations in Education
Scoop.it!

SOPRESO - Your presentation assistant

SOPRESO - Your presentation assistant | technology and leadership | Scoop.it
Capture your audience with SOPRESO, a presentation assistant software with polling, questions, and much more. Forget audience response systems, use SOPRESO.

Via Baiba Svenca
more...
Baiba Svenca's curator insight, October 23, 10:57 AM

Sopreso software lets you engage your audience by sharing your slides, using polls and questions, and getting feedback. It works on all devices.

They offer you a 30-day trial to test the program.


Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from E-Learning and Online Teaching
Scoop.it!

To Care and Comply: Disability Access at PCC - YouTube

A look at PCC's policies on supporting students with physical disabilities. Stories from students who have struggled with their education at PCC because of a...

Via Dennis T OConnor
more...
Dennis T OConnor's curator insight, October 14, 12:36 AM

Excellent video from Portland Community College. This will help you understand the need for accommodations in both the online and face to face classroom.

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from iPads in Education
Scoop.it!

Education App: Let’s Do Mental Maths – Now Available for All Primary Ages | UKEdChat.com

Education App: Let’s Do Mental Maths – Now Available for All Primary Ages | UKEdChat.com | technology and leadership | Scoop.it
Andrew Brodie is known by many teachers and parents for his series of publications that support children develop their mental mathematical skills, creating educational books since 1992, and is still very much involved in education and has a wealth of experience of teaching and as a primary head-teacher.

Now, with support from Bloomsbury Publishing, Brodie has launched a couple of Mental Maths iPad / iPhone apps (initially released for pupils ages 6-7 and 10-11 – but now also available for 5-6; 7-8; 8-9 & 9-10) that have been developed with the curriculum changes that are taking place around the UK. Within the apps, there are three main quiz areas:

Via John Evans
Tom Cockburn's insight:

could be good

more...
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from iPads in Education
Scoop.it!

Excellent Collection of Apps and Web Tools to Unlock Kids Creativity ~ Educational Technology and Mobile Learning

Excellent Collection of Apps and Web Tools to Unlock Kids Creativity ~ Educational Technology and Mobile Learning | technology and leadership | Scoop.it
One of the most exciting abilities that technology can give educators and students is the ability to make stuff. Unlock a world of creativity and engagement with a computer program, interactive canvas, live presentation, bundle of content, or fun game.

Via John Evans
Tom Cockburn's insight:

will road test

more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Geography Education
Scoop.it!

Why Paris doesn't want a Scottish Yes

Why Paris doesn't want a Scottish Yes | technology and leadership | Scoop.it

"Nothing unites different nations quite like mutual enemies. But the 'Auld Alliance' between Scotland and France - both historic rivals of England - doesn't mean that the French government favours Scottish independence. Far from it."


Via Seth Dixon
more...
Kevin Barker's curator insight, August 19, 8:59 AM

I was surprised to listen to the affection that Scotland and France have towards each other but I wasn't surprised to hear France's concerns about the further division of countries within the EU.  What is it about the independence of Scotland that causes the French government to be concerned?

MsPerry's curator insight, August 25, 3:30 PM

APHG-Unit 4

Nicole Kearsch's curator insight, October 14, 1:50 PM

Even though in past years France and Scotland have been friendly and wanted the best for each other, Scottish independence is not on the list of things to do for France.  They have good blood together, sharing foods, music and alcohol at festivals there is no need to worry about any hatred happening even if the French does not back Scotland's independence.  While some think that France would think that areas like Brittany and Corsica would want independence from France that is not the reason.  To keep checks and balances in place a strong United Kingdom is needed to keep Germany in line.  With the independence of Scotland, the UK gets a little bit weaker and France is not okay with that.

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from From Complexity to Wisdom
Scoop.it!

Systems Thinking and the Future of Cities

Systems Thinking and the Future of Cities | technology and leadership | Scoop.it
The idea that nothing exists in isolation−but only as part of a system−has long been embedded in folklore, religious scriptures, and common sense.

Via Erika Harrison
more...
Josie Gibson's curator insight, September 14, 7:11 PM

Timely focus on the critical role of thinking systemically as a leader...

Jason Leong's curator insight, September 29, 4:15 AM

"Despite the inherent logic of systems thinking, governments, corporations, foundations, universities, and non-profit organizations still work mostly by breaking issues and problems into their separate parts and dealing with each in isolation. Separate agencies, departments, and organizations specialize in energy, land, food, air, water, wildlife, economy, finance, building regulations, urban policy, technology, health, and transportation−as if each were unrelated to the others. So, one agency pushes hard to grow the economy while another is charged to clean up the resulting mess and so forth, which is to say that the right hand and left hand seldom knows−or cares−what the other is doing. The results are often counter-productive, overly expensive, risky, sometimes disastrous, and most always ironic."

Miklos Szilagyi's curator insight, September 29, 4:57 AM

Very comprehensive and interesting.... and not only about the cities... Good...

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from The Digital High Street
Scoop.it!

Digital Maps Show Race and Income Data Down to Street Level - Next City

Digital Maps Show Race and Income Data Down to Street Level - Next City | technology and leadership | Scoop.it
Digital Maps Show Race and Income Data Down to Street Level
Next City
...

Via WillesdenGreen Town Team
Tom Cockburn's insight:

Indeed,the issue then is what authorities or researchers do with this data eg social policy

more...
WillesdenGreen Town Team's curator insight, August 17, 8:50 AM

What fascinating things can be done with digital media

Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

The Rise of Social Bots

The Turing test asked whether one could recognize the behavior of a human from that of a computer algorithm. Today this question has suddenly become very relevant in the context of social media, where text constraints limit the expressive power of humans, and real incentives abound to develop human-mimicking software agents called social bots. These elusive entities wildly populate social media ecosystems, often going unnoticed among the population of real people. Bots can be benign or harmful, aiming at persuading, smearing, or deceiving. Here we discuss the characteristics of modern, sophisticated social bots, and how their presence can endanger online ecosystems and our society. We then discuss current efforts aimed at detection of social bots in Twitter. Characteristics related to content, network, sentiment, and temporal patterns of activity are imitated by bots but at the same time can help discriminate synthetic behaviors from human ones, yielding signatures of engineered social tampering.

 

The Rise of Social Bots
Emilio Ferrara, Onur Varol, Clayton Davis, Filippo Menczer, Alessandro Flammini

http://arxiv.org/abs/1407.5225


Via Complexity Digest
more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

Competitive Dynamics on Complex Networks

Competitive Dynamics on Complex Networks | technology and leadership | Scoop.it

We consider a dynamical network model in which two competitors have fixed and different states, and each normal agent adjusts its state according to a distributed consensus protocol. The state of each normal agent converges to a steady value which is a convex combination of the competitors' states, and is independent of the initial states of agents. This implies that the competition result is fully determined by the network structure and positions of competitors in the network. We compute an Influence Matrix (IM) in which each element characterizing the influence of an agent on another agent in the network. We use the IM to predict the bias of each normal agent and thus predict which competitor will win. Furthermore, we compare the IM criterion with seven node centrality measures to predict the winner. We find that the competitor with higher Katz Centrality in an undirected network or higher PageRank in a directed network is most likely to be the winner. These findings may shed new light on the role of network structure in competition and to what extent could competitors adjust network structure so as to win the competition.

 

Competitive Dynamics on Complex Networks

Jiuhua Zhao, Qipeng Liu, & Xiaofan Wang
Scientific Reports 4, Article number: 5858
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep05858

 

 


Via Complexity Digest
Tom Cockburn's insight:

Could be useful

more...
AleksBlumentals's curator insight, August 14, 2:39 AM

How do you discover Caseworthiness? 

 


Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

Cooperating with the future

Overexploitation of renewable resources today has a high cost on the welfare of future generations. Unlike in other public goods games, however, future generations cannot reciprocate actions made today. What mechanisms can maintain cooperation with the future? To answer this question, we devise a new experimental paradigm, the /`Intergenerational Goods Game/'. A line-up of successive groups (generations) can each either extract a resource to exhaustion or leave something for the next group. Exhausting the resource maximizes the payoff for the present generation, but leaves all future generations empty-handed. Here we show that the resource is almost always destroyed if extraction decisions are made individually. This failure to cooperate with the future is driven primarily by a minority of individuals who extract far more than what is sustainable. In contrast, when extractions are democratically decided by vote, the resource is consistently sustained. Voting is effective for two reasons. First, it allows a majority of cooperators to restrain defectors. Second, it reassures conditional cooperators that their efforts are not futile. Voting, however, only promotes sustainability if it is binding for all involved. Our results have implications for policy interventions designed to sustain intergenerational public goods.


Cooperating with the future
Oliver P. Hauser, David G. Rand, Alexander Peysakhovich & Martin A. Nowak

Nature 511, 220–223 (10 July 2014) http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13530


Via Complexity Digest
Tom Cockburn's insight:

Optimistic,in lab at least?

more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

Early Warning Signs in Social-Ecological Networks

Early Warning Signs in Social-Ecological Networks | technology and leadership | Scoop.it

A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behavior associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviors is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance—measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network—is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks.


Early Warning Signs in Social-Ecological Networks.

PLoS ONE 9(7): e101851. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0101851 (2014)

Suweis Samir, D'Odorico Paolo


Code of the analysis available at https://github.com/suweis


http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0101851


Via Complexity Digest
Tom Cockburn's insight:

Reliably unreliable systems interacting

more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Tom Cockburn from Papers
Scoop.it!

The future lies in uncertainty


Statisticians have celebrated a lot recently. 2013 marked the 300th anniversary of Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi, which used probability theory to explore the properties of statistics as more observations were taken. It was also the 250th anniversary of Thomas Bayes' essay on how humans can sequentially learn from experience, steadily updating their beliefs as more data become available (1). And it was the International Year of Statistics (2). Now that the bunting has been taken down, it is a good time to take stock of recent developments in statistical science and examine its role in the age of Big Data.
Much enthusiasm for statistics hangs on the ever-increasing availability of large data sets, particularly when something has to be ranked or classified. These situations arise, for example, when deciding which book to recommend, working out where your arm is when practicing golf swings in front of a games console, or (if you're a security agency) deciding whose private e-mail to read first. Purely data-based approaches, under the title of machine-learning, have been highly successful in speech recognition, real-time interpretation of moving images, and online translation.


The future lies in uncertainty
. D. J. Spiegelhalter

Science 18 July 2014:
Vol. 345 no. 6194 pp. 264-265
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1251122


Via Complexity Digest
Tom Cockburn's insight:

 ay seem banal comment but uncertainty,ambiguity and surprise are increasingly core features in the world today in the second machine age and the internet of things has arrived

more...
Complexity Digest's curator insight, July 18, 6:25 PM

“Predicting the past is very easy. Predicting the future is not so easy” -Ignacio Méndez

Claude Emond's curator insight, August 3, 8:01 PM

Not much to say here about that! You cannot predict the future. You can influence it though ! :)