Predictive analytics often sounds a bit like quantum mechanics: fiendishly complex to look at and wildly counter-intuitive. So when someone sells you a tool, how can you verify that the black box is fit for its purpose or even lives up to the vendor’s claims? Of course, there never are ironclad guarantees around prediction; the future can have more shapes and colors than we ever imagined. But you’ll be more likely to get the best out of your predictive analytics if you ask the following basic questions in evaluating new predictive models:
With the advent of Big Data and faster and better data processing capabilities we are seeing a surge in predictive intelligence solutions; everyone is trying to predict the future to their advantage. The question though is, are they? Predictive intelligence misses on two of the most advanced predictors of behavior: context and intent. A new model, anticipatory intelligence, tries to account for context, intent, but more importantly for the many different possible scenarios – instead of next best step, tries to derive next most likely scenarios.
Compass – Understand the insights from the top culture thought leaders about how cultures evolve. Roadmap – Use the roadmap in this article or another framework to help clarify the initial work with a direct connection to a top performance priority, challenge, or goal. Guide – engage a trusted advisor that’s experienced with overcoming the obstacles you will encounter to accelerate your learning and progress achieving results.
The very technologies that the intelligence community relies on to carry out its missions are threatening its ability to provide an accurate picture of its challenges and opportunities. Technology-driven information has no accountability, and many of its disseminators have very little perspective on truth.
You might think I’m announcing that today there is strategy in the United States. Such a discovery would indeed be welcome but it’s not what I mean. I mean that you can see strategy in almost every newspaper article. (Ben Gilad)
The Central Intelligence Agency has released a new, extensive collection of declassified articles from its in-house journal, providing glimpses into the spy organization’s thinking on everything from Al-Qaeda’s secrecy tactics in Afghanistan to how it has managed public relations crises. The documents, posted on the agency’s website Thursday, are from “Studies in Intelligence,” the CIA’s in-house professional journal. The publication’s mission is “to stimulate within the Intelligence Community the constructive discussion of important issues of the day, to expand knowledge of lessons learned from past experiences, to increase understanding of the history of the profession, and to provide readers with considered reviews of public literature concerning intelligence,” the agency said.
In the TV show, “Hoarding: Buried Alive,” you'll notice it’s hard to identify the items of value mixed in with the piles and piles of trash. It’s also difficult to identify who in the house owns a particular item so that you can ask them why they even have it, or get permission to remove it. They don’t use half the stuff, and they’ve forgotten they own it. This is a lot like unstructured data — tons and tons of PDFs, Word docs, spreadsheets, PowerPoint presentations, audio files, picture files and pretty much anything else that doesn’t live in a “structured” database — and how people in most organizations just keep collecting it.
Once you finish your written speech or PowerPoint slides, you're only halfway done preparing a great presentation. The experts at SOAP Presentationsin São Paulo, Brazil, compiled the following presentation on the most important body language techniques to look like a natural in front of your boss, colleagues, and clients.
In this interview with McKinsey’s Eric Hazan, PayPal’s vice president and general manager for Continental Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, Laurent Le Moal, discusses the company’s approach, the evolution of its customers, and its future. Le Moal joined PayPal in 2004 as its head of business development for the United Kingdom, moved to France in 2006 to lead the growth of its merchant-services activities, and became general manager of PayPal France in 2008. He assumed his current role in 2010.
What would it take for algorithms to take over the C-suite? And what will be senior leaders’ most important contributions if they do? Our answers to these admittedly speculative questions rest on our work with senior leaders in a range of industries, particularly those on the vanguard of the big data and advanced-analytics revolution. We have also worked extensively alongside executives who have been experimenting most actively with opening up their companies and decision-making processes through crowdsourcing and social platforms within and across organizational boundaries.
A number of studies document how organizations go through numerous stages as they increase their commitment to sustainability over time. However, we still know little about the role of the Chief Sustainability Officer (CSO) in this process. Using survey and interview data, the authors of this paper analyze how CSOs' authority and responsibilities differ across organizations that are in different stages of sustainability commitment.
How much can we really bring climate change info into the strategic thinking?" Now a lot of that skepticism has burned off, Now a lot of that skepticism has burned off, more intense interest from members of the intelligence community and leaders in Washington. “They want to know, what’s going to be the next drought area of the world? They want to know about the potential for climate-related unrest,” he said. “There’s a higher interest in all that for sure.”
For a decade, part of my job was to predict the future. I worked on the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report, which explores changes that may take place over the next 15 to 20 years. The Global Trends report looks at a wide range of topics: technological innovation, demographic shifts, economic pressures, shifts in geopolitical power, trends in religious and political movements, and much more. It’s a critical document in part because the speed of change has accelerated in recent year
nnovation sounds easy, but it is not. The majority of enterprises report dissatisfaction with innovation performance. Three quarters of the CEOs of multinationals view external collaborative innovation as vitally important, but only half do it, and those only rate themselves as doing it ‘moderately well’. And remember - two thirds of organizational ‘change’ efforts fail. In case you are now asking yourself, why are these odds that low – we have a straightforward answer. It’s just one word. .
It has taken a while to complete this task but I have finally managed to complete the task of updating the large collection of data visualisation tools and resources. You can view the full collection by visiting the resources page on the menu above. In total there are now 273 identifiable tools, applications and services that play a role in the design of data visualisation. What a fragmented but option-rich field we work in.
Few marketers have the time or inclination to track their competitor’s website meta description, meta title tags or social profiles in order to learn of changes or updates. But they should. By doing so, you gain incredible competitive intelligence about potential changes in strategy, market positioning and even product direction. You can also use this to track potential market trends or changes you might have missed. Why and how to track your competitor's website meta description, meta title tags and social profiles for competitive intelligence and strategic advantage.
When you're trying to get ahead, the drive for perfection can be your worst enemy. If you constantly do everything perfectly and perform everything flawlessly, you may think you're being effective and efficient. But sometimes it's the imperfect performances that demonstrate your greatest potential. The person who never makes a mistake always ends up taking orders from one who does. Here's why.
Here are 7 areas your competitors can teach you about innovation. You can answer these questions to better understand the pros and cons, whys and wherefores of how competitors in your industry are addressing innovation and what it means for your brand....
The most effective competitive intelligence strategists make a habit of predicting their firm’s probability of success. With their central mission held in the sights, CI strategists must determine what internal and external factors will affect their firm’s ability to achieve a goal, get a return on their investment and keep up with the competition. Using competitive intelligence tools such as Leopard Firmscape, they can examine the overall health of the industry or practice area and use that data to help predict the chances of succeeding. They can also keep an eye on internal shifts within the firm to determine how partner choices will play out against the backdrop of larger trends..
The survey outlines the intelligence community’s objectives as strategic and anticipatory intelligence, current operations, cyber-intelligence, counterterrorism, counter-proliferation and counter-intelligence.
The survey also outlines how those goals would be approached, saying more of an effort will be made to integrate the work of multiple agencies, improving the sharing and safeguarding of information, innovating, and investing in staff. Part of the challenge will be harnessing the explosion in social media and the information that generates, Clapper said.
Financial conservatism served companies well in the downturn but in an economic recovery may be dragging companies into a vicious circle of cash accumulation at the expense of investment in growth. New research suggests markets are more rewarding of companies spending astutely in the pursuit of growth.
In the past, growth decisions were limited mostly to the ideas that executives could envision on their own. Today, with big data, executives can consider growth options that they might otherwise not even have imagined