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10 Good Reasons Not to Trust Your Brain

10 Good Reasons Not to Trust Your Brain | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it

The human brain is a marvelous tool. However, it was designed for a very different world than we currently live in. As a result, it retains many design flaws that do not serve us well, especially in today’s business world where new ways of thinking and ongoing innovation are essential for success.

 

Perhaps the most damaging flaw is the brain’s tendency to think it’s right. In fact, it often insists it is right even in the face of contradictory evidence. So the next time you’re absolutely, positively sure you’re right, consider these 10 reasons not to trust your brain


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
Maree Conway's insight:

Challenging assumptions and taken for granted ways of working is at the core of strategic foresight - understanding how the brain works helps us to understand that our views about the future are not fixed.

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Ivon Prefontaine's curator insight, May 1, 2013 9:28 AM

We need to practice mindfulness and being present. The brain is a great organism that can be used much better.

Strategic Foresight
Resources to help build a strategic foresight capacity in organisations
Curated by Maree Conway
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Back To The Future? We’re Already There. — Medium

Back To The Future? We’re Already There. — Medium | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it

“Drivers? Where we’re going we don’t need drivers.” That’s what Doc Brown should have said. But instead, he uttered the now famous line…

Maree Conway's insight:

We are alive at one of the most important times in human history. We face a future that is incredibly uncertain, and that will be shaped, in large part, by people like you and me, as we decide what kind of a world we want to live in.

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Why Organizations Don’t Learn

Why Organizations Don’t Learn | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
Our traditional obsessions—success, taking action, fitting in, and relying on experts—undermine continuous improvement.
Maree Conway's insight:

Why do companies struggle to become or remain “learning organizations”? Through research conducted over the past decade across a wide range of industries, we have drawn this conclusion: Biases cause people to focus too much on success, take action too quickly, try too hard to fit in, and depend too much on experts. In this article we discuss how these deeply ingrained human tendencies interfere with learning—and how they can be countered.

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Changing change management | McKinsey & Company

Changing change management | McKinsey & Company | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it

Research tells us that most change efforts fail. Yet change methodologies are stuck in a predigital era. It’s high time to start catching up.


Change management as it is traditionally applied is outdated. We know, for example, that 70 percent of change programs fail to achieve their goals, largely due to employee resistance and lack of management support. We also know that when people are truly invested in change it is 30 percent more likely to stick. While companies have been obsessing about how to use digital to improve their customer-facing businesses, the application of digital tools to promote and accelerate internal change has received far less scrutiny." 

Maree Conway's insight:

The fourth suggestion - build empathy, community and shared purpose - is critical and the most difficult to achieve. Any change process has to start with people not outcomes. And without bloated change management offices.

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How Computers Change the Way We Think

How Computers Change the Way We Think | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it

The tools we use to think change the ways in which we think. The invention of written language brought about a radical shift in how we process, organize, store, and transmit representations of the world. Although writing remains our primary information technology, today when we think about the impact of technology on our habits of mind, we think primarily of the computer.

Maree Conway's insight:

"Yet in the real world, we have never had a greater need to work our way out of binary assumptions. In the decade ahead, we need to rebuild the culture around information technology. In that new sociotechnical culture, assumptions about the nature of mastery would be less absolute. The new culture would make it easier, not more difficult, to consider life in shades of gray, to see moral dilemmas in terms other than a battle between Good and Evil. For never has our world been more complex, hybridized, and global. Never have we so needed to have many contradictory thoughts and feelings at the same time. Our tools must help us accomplish that, not fight against us."

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Future Tools

Future Tools | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
Built Environment Modelling (BEM) offers excellent opportunities to make meaningful stakeholder and public engagement not only possible but also cost effective.  People power is essential for getting necessary change and radical design innovations...
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Welcome to Horizon Scanning!

Welcome to all and any who’ve landed on this page, I’ve been holding it for a while now while concentrating on my job with the UK Government’s Horizon Scanning Centre, but have decided 2011 is the year we get going.
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Dr Harry Woodroof: Introduction to Horizon Scanning

Presentation to the third LIS DREaM workshop, held at Edinburgh Napier university on Wednesday 25th April 2012. More information about the event can be found a…
Maree Conway's insight:

A good overview of how environmental scanning is practice used by a UK government department.

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Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning

Environmental scanning is the acquisition and use of information about events, trends, and relationships in an organization's external environment, the knowledge of which would assist management in planning the organization's future course of action. Depending on the organization's beliefs about environmental analyzability and the extent that it intrudes into the environment to understand it, four modes of scanning may be differentiated: undirected viewing, conditioned viewing, enacting, and searching. We analyze each mode of scanning by examining its characteristic information needs, information seeking, and information use behaviours. In addition, we analyze organizational learning processes by considering the sensemaking, knowledge creating and decision making processes at work in each mode.
Maree Conway's insight:

One of the best writers about the fundamentals of environmental scanning - must read.

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Why Your Company Needs a Resident Futurist

Why Your Company Needs a Resident Futurist | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it

One tool that I find useful in handling this is ‘futuring’, a systematic process for thinking about, imagining, and planning for the future. There is even such a thing as futurists, people who explore predictions and possibilities about the future based on current trends. Meanwhile associations, such as the World Future Society, provide relevant forums for discussion and analysis.

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Maree Conway's curator insight, October 8, 2015 6:58 PM

Being far-sighted about your strategy can help you prepare for the big global changes already unfolding. It is clear that businesses needed to interact and adjust to their changing environment, and that it was easier to ride the wave than go against it. Still, most business people seem blissfully incurious about these large forces. We keep ourselves busy with everyday business life, and focus on the short-term rather than allowing ourselves time to reflect on the more distant future. It's just so far away that it doesn't feel relevant.

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Leaps in Perspective

Leaps in Perspective | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
If you know your company’s progress up the levels of human evolution, you can help its culture advance to the next stage.
Maree Conway's insight:

Shifting or seeing new perspectives is at the core of good foresight work. This article has an excellent overview of Spiral Dynamics that shows how our thinking isn't fixed and that our thinking capacity changes throughout our lives. If we let it. 

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Maree Conway's curator insight, October 8, 2015 6:58 PM

Shifting or seeing new perspectives is at the core of good foresight work. This article has an excellent overview of Spiral Dynamics that shows how our thinking isn't fixed and that our thinking capacity changes throughout our lives. If we let it. 

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Planning for Your Company's Future

Planning for Your Company's Future | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
Dear WOUNDED: Our company does a crummy job of strategic planning. I was invited to participate in the process this year, what can I do to help us actually accomplish something?
ANSWER: Have you ever woken up during a road trip only to find your surroundings looking very similar to the scenery...
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Tips about how to make planning more effective.

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Sixteen new ways to test your strategies - Tomorrowtoday

Sixteen new ways to test your strategies - Tomorrowtoday | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
“Ultimately, strategy is a way of thinking, not a procedural exercise or a set of frameworks” says Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit, consultants at Mckinsey. With this in mind and to stimulate that thinking and the dialogue that goes along with it, they have developed a set of tests aimed at helping executives assess …
Maree Conway's insight:

Good questions to ask about strategy as it's being design.

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Why the economy needs people and businesses with one foot in the future

Why the economy needs people and businesses with one foot in the future | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
It is time for transformational change – and that means aiming higher and acting over significantly extended time frames
Maree Conway's insight:

Good overview of the need to think differently about the future, and nice classification of past, present and future thinking.

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Back to the Future Day: Six experts predict life in 2045

Back to the Future Day: Six experts predict life in 2045 | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
What will life be like in 30 years' time? We asked six forecasters to do better than Back to the Future II's predictions
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Mintzberg On Strategic Planning - Thinkers 50

Mintzberg On Strategic Planning - Thinkers 50 | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
It’s significant that the two most popular management techniques of all time were adopted by two groups, communist governments and American corporations
Maree Conway's insight:

A timely reminder of Mintzberg's insights into strategic planning, and we need to understand exactly what it is - hint, it's not strategy-making.

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Philip Tetlock’s Tomorrows

Philip Tetlock’s Tomorrows | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it

He’s teaching superforecasters to predict the future. Crazy, right? Except when it works. The ultimate goals? Intellectual honesty. Better predictions. And, says Tetlock, "I hope we can avoid mistakes of the Iraq-war magnitude."

Maree Conway's insight:

There's a lot of people and power behind these resources, designed to improve the accuracy of decision making. I wish they could lose the term prediction though because the aim is not to get the future right but to make the right decision to respond to the future.

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Nine questions to help you get your digital transformation right | McKinsey & Company

Nine questions to help you get your digital transformation right | McKinsey & Company | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
Becoming a digital organization requires fundamentally changing how you do business. Answering these nine questions can help break through the inevitable barriers. A McKinsey & Company article.
Maree Conway's insight:

1. Do you know where change is occurring?

2. Do you know which customer journeys matter?

3. Are your teams collaborating across functions?

4. Do you have a disciplined 'test and learn' approach?

5. Are your budgets tied to progress?

6. Do your mechanisms to challenge ideas?

7. Are your people empowered to act?

8. Is your IT operating at two speeds?

9. Are you coordinating a portfolio of initiatives?

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Reports from the initiative to explore collaborative working across the strategic futures community in the public sector

These reports described below were written as part of a project originally commissioned by the Government’s Horizon Scanning Centre, to support the work undertaken as part of the Futures Analysts Network (FAN Club).
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UK Foresight - Good night?

I have written on the Global Foresight group's page on LinkedIn: The UK Foresight Programme was reported to be seen internationally as a "gold standard" for large-scale institutional foresight work.So what does its current website say about how...
Maree Conway's insight:

A history of the UK Government's foresight program, demonstrating how difficult it can be to maintain a futures facing stance in the midst of short term political imperatives.

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Environmental Scanning at the Georgia Center for Continuing Education: A Progress Report

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An overview of how one university does scanning on a continuing basis.

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Disrupting beliefs: A new approach to business-model innovation | McKinsey & Company

Disrupting beliefs: A new approach to business-model innovation | McKinsey & Company | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
In a disruptive age, established business models are under attack. Here’s how incumbent companies can reframe them. A McKinsey Quarterly article.
Maree Conway's insight:

"Every industry is built around long-standing, often implicit, beliefs about how to make money...These governing beliefs reflect widely shared notions about customer preferences, the role of technology, regulation, cost drivers, and the basis of competition and differentiation. They are often considered inviolable—until someone comes along to violate them. Almost always, it’s an attacker from outside the industry."


Beliefs are never set in stone - they can always be changed, especially by change inflicted from outside the organisation. Foresight helps people see this change coming in time for them to respond proactively.

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Maree Conway's curator insight, October 8, 2015 6:57 PM

Every industry is built around long-standing, often implicit, beliefs about how to make money. In retail, for example, it’s believed that purchasing power and format determine the bottom line. In telecommunications, customer retention and average revenue per user are seen as fundamental. Success in pharmaceuticals is believed to depend on the time needed to obtain approval from the US Food and Drug Administration. Assets and regulations define returns in oil and gas. In the media industry, hits drive profitability.

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3 steps to creating participative strategy processes in organizations - Trends in the Living Networks

3 steps to creating participative strategy processes in organizations - Trends in the Living Networks | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
Some of my most interesting work in in helping clients create effective processes for participative strategy. The traditional approach to strategy is that it is generated in the executive suite or by highly-paid consultants, then it is communicated to staff, usually rather ineffectively. There is an increasing recognition that many people across the organization haveContinue reading 3 steps to creating participative strategy processes in organizations
Maree Conway's insight:

Involving people in strategy development is fundamental - this article suggests some ways to do it.

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Column: Why Businesses Don’t Experiment

Column: Why Businesses Don’t Experiment | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
A few years ago, a marketing team from a major consumer goods company came to my lab eager to test some new pricing mechanisms using principles of behavioral economics. We decided to start by testing the allure of “free,” a subject my students and I had been studying. I was excited: The company would gain […]
Maree Conway's insight:

"We tend to value answers over questions because answers allow us to take action, while questions mean that we need to keep thinking. Never mind that asking good questions and gathering evidence usually guides us to better answers."

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Futures Thinking: Scanning the World

Futures Thinking: Scanning the World | Strategic Foresight | Scoop.it
Looking for the distant early warnings of tomorrow.
Maree Conway's insight:

A good overview about how to scan.

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