"Futurism as it's practiced today doesn't try to predict the future, but rather to illuminate unexpected implications of present-day issues; the emphasis isn't on what will happen, but on what could happen, given various observed drivers. It's a way of getting new perspectives and context for present-day decisions, as well as for dealing with the dilemma at the heart of all strategic thinking: the future can't be predicted, yet we have to make choices based on what is to come."
Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock review the not-too-promising record of expert predictions of political and social phenomena. The truth remains that for all our social science, the world manages to surprise us far more often than not.
The human brain is a marvelous tool. However, it was designed for a very different world than we currently live in. As a result, it retains many design flaws that do not serve us well, especially in today’s business world where new ways of thinking and ongoing innovation are essential for success.
Perhaps the most damaging flaw is the brain’s tendency to think it’s right. In fact, it often insists it is right even in the face of contradictory evidence. So the next time you’re absolutely, positively sure you’re right, consider these 10 reasons not to trust your brain
Challenging assumptions and taken for granted ways of working is at the core of strategic foresight - understanding how the brain works helps us to understand that our views about the future are not fixed.
In 1993, I saw the web coming. I was hired to write the cover story for a now defunct computer magazine about the internet, and dismissed the new Mosaic browser in a single paragraph. I figured the web was just...
After years of talking strategy with business partners I have come to the conclusion that most of us don’t know what strategic thinking really is. Most of what we call strategic thinking is really not that strategic.
Thinking comes in many forms:
Howard Gardner talks about five in his book Five Minds for the Future, and describes at least six kinds of intelligence in his other writingsEdward de Bono describes Six Thinking Hats, written specifically for thinking in a business contextI have compiled a list of about a dozen or so approaches to thinking.
Maree Conway's insight:
A straightforward overview of strategic thinking, the core strategic foresight capability.
The generation that grew up digital doesn't want to pay to own units of music. The paradigm has shifted. Here's why the industry needs to catch up. (RT @mashable: Why the Music Industry Must Change Its Strategy to Reach Digital Natives - http://on.mash.to/eLxDyP)
Case Study in how re-thinking strategy can help a company maintain its development in the face of changing technology. It also illustrates the importance of asking the right strategic questions, as well as the need to look beyond your industry to find opportunities.
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