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Robert Prechter and Newton’s First Law of Motion

Robert Prechter and Newton’s First Law of Motion | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it

People keep coming back. Forty of the attendees of the 2014 Social Mood Conference were joining us for their second, third and even fourth time. (The quote above is from a third-timer!) Attendees of this year’s conference gave high marks

Socionomics Institute's insight:

“This is the one day of the year that I look forward to the most.”  Check out this new post from this past year's Social Mood Conference. 

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Tax-Cut Promises Meet Reality as State Tax Growth Flags

Tax-Cut Promises Meet Reality as State Tax Growth Flags | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
Bold talk of cutting state income taxes is becoming muted as U.S. governors and legislatures face the reality that they can’t afford to keep their promises, even in an improving economy.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

Generally speaking, the intelligent way for an individual to approach the vagaries of his or her financial future is to have savings or buy insurance. Governments almost invariably do the opposite. They spend and borrow throughout the good times and find themselves strapped in bad times, when tax receipts fall. – Conquer the Crash, 2nd Ed., 2009

 

Learn more here: http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/more_info/CTC2-NTG.aspx

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Drug resistant superbugs a serious threat worldwide, says WHO

Drug resistant superbugs a serious threat worldwide, says WHO | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - The spread of deadly superbugs that evade even the most powerful antibiotics is no longer a prediction but is happening right now across the world, United Nations officials said on Wednesday.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

The standard view: “Epidemics cause people to be fearful and depressed.” We would say, “Depressed and fearful people are susceptible to epidemics.” We think we can predict epidemics with some general accuracy—not specific, but general—and also times not to be very worried about them.

The Socionomist, October 2010

 

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/more_info/the-socionomist.aspx?code=SOCIONET&latest=on

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Barrick’s Munk Says Einstein Couldn’t Predict Gold Prices

Barrick’s Munk Says Einstein Couldn’t Predict Gold Prices | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
Barrick Gold Corp. Chairman Peter Munk says he finds it impossible to accurately predict the value of the precious metal being produced every day by the mining company he founded more than three decades ago.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

You don't have to be smarter than Einstein to anticipate gold prices; you just need the right tool.

 

Learn how you can stay ahead of the gold market here: http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2014/04/25/How-to-Forecast-Gold-Better-Than-Albert-Einstein.aspx

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Proposal to Limit Prosecutions of Marijuana Cases in Brooklyn

Proposal to Limit Prosecutions of Marijuana Cases in Brooklyn | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
The borough’s district attorney, Kenneth P. Thompson, wants to find alternatives to court for people arrested on charges of possessing small amounts of the drug.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

Look for increasing tolerance of drug use to become the new reality.
-- The Socionomist, November 2009

 

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/more_info/the-socionomist.aspx?code=SOCIONET&latest=on

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Leaflet tells Jews to register in East Ukraine

Leaflet tells Jews to register in East Ukraine | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it

World leaders and Jewish groups condemned a leaflet handed out in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk in which Jews were told to "register" with the pro-Russian militants who have taken over a government office in an attempt to make Ukraine part of Russia, according to Ukrainian and Israeli media.

 

Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city's Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee "or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated," reported Ynet News, Israel's largest news website, and Ukraine's Donbass news agency.

Socionomics Institute's insight:

Bear markets often result in persecution of various people who are seen to be “not like us.” No clearer example exists than in the rise of anti-Semitism in Europe. – The European Financial Forecast, June 2004

Read more at http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/2004/06/cultural-trends-manifestations-of-a-bear-market-mood-in-europe/

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Jennifer Lopez Wears the Shortest Dress Ever Created

Jennifer Lopez Wears the Shortest Dress Ever Created | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it

We feel like we're being tricked by Jennifer Lopez in this H&M Conscious Collection dress.

At first glance, it's a sweet baby doll shape in pure, demure white. But check out just how much leg is showing underneath that precious lace! The "I Luh Ya Papi" singer may be wearing the fabric of a blushing bride, but her hemline is about a millimeter from her underwear!

Socionomics Institute's insight:

Financial Market Analysts have studied the "hemline indicator" for decades. Yet there's an even deeper connection between short skirts, fashion trends and the economy's financial health that most overlook.

 

To learn more, watch this three-minute clip from the socionomics documentary History's Hidden Engine: http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJeC92a3z_s

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Is an Ivy League Education Still Worth It?

April 7 (Bloomberg) --- Bloomberg's Janet Lorin discusses Ivy League acceptance rates and the cost of higher education. She speaks with Mark Crumpton on Bloo...
Socionomics Institute's insight:

Traditional educational institutions may eventually lose control of the manufacture and distribution of education much as the music and publishing industries lost their grip on music and text.– The Socionomist, March 2012

 

Learn more at  http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/2012/06/the-education-industry-is-traversing-a-broad-multi-decade-social-mood-peak-2/

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Military playing catch-up on PTSD

Military playing catch-up on PTSD | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
Tens of thousands of current and former troops have PTSD or other mental health problems -- or are at risk of them
Socionomics Institute's insight:

The Pentagon might not be so far behind this trend had they read the June 2009 issue of The Socionomist, "A Socionomic View of Epidemic Disease Part II: Stress, Physiology, Threats and Strategies."

 

"Magnetic resonance imaging studies show that both male combat veterans and women survivors of childhood sexual abuse with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) have shrunken hippocampal volumes.

 

PTSD is characterized by traumatic memories that continue for many decades.

 

Stress can effect similar changes in society. G.S. Bradshaw (Nature, 2005) writes:

 

'Psychobiological trauma in humans is increasingly encountered as a legacy of war and socio-ecological disruptions. Trauma affects society directly through an individual’s experience, and indirectly through social transmission and the collapse of traditional social structures. Trauma can define a culture.'"

 

Read more at http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/tag/epidemics/page/4/

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Is the World More Depressed?

Is the World More Depressed? | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
Increasing development and urbanization may lead to more suicides.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

Society has been expressing this larger trend toward increasingly negative social mood through a variety of health-related symptoms. For example, our 2009 study said,

"Stress—born of the same fear that drives stock prices lower, tanks economies and escalates foreclosures—also increases the risk of disease. ... Foreclosure—being forced out of your home—is one of the most disruptive and stressful financial calamities that a family can suffer."

More than one-third of homeowners in our study had symptoms of major depression. The N.B.E.R. study found significantly more suicide attempts in high-foreclosure neighborhoods. For every 100 foreclosures, it found a 12% increase in anxiety-related emergency-room visits and hospitalizations by adults under 50. Losing a home disrupts social ties to neighbors, schools, jobs and health care providers—ties that under better circumstances promote good health.

 

Read our full report at: http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/1112SOC_Complete-Issue.pdf

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Is ITT Tech screwing over students?

Is ITT Tech screwing over students? | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it

"Before Christmas, ITT Tech announced that it would likely be sued for misleading students about tuition loans and the success they might enjoy following their education."

Socionomics Institute's insight:

"Society’s feelings about education shift in concert with social mood."


Learn more: http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/2011/06/back-to-the-school-of-hard-knocks/

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Amanda Groover's curator insight, March 30, 2014 10:38 AM

Another example of marketing practices in higher education, the ridiculousness of accountability in our education system, and the future frustration of the millennial generation.

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Giant virus revived after more than 30,000 years

Giant virus revived after more than 30,000 years | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
NEW YORK (AP) — Researchers have revived a giant virus more than 30,000 years old, recovered from the permafrost of northeast Siberia.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

According to medical historian David Morens, “The three deadliest events in human history were all infectious diseases. The 1918-1919 flu killed 50 million to 100 million people. The Black Death killed 25 million people, and AIDS has killed 25 million or more.”1

 

The first step toward preparing for the increased risk of disease is to understand the engine that drives that risk.

 

The Elliott Wave Theorist, February 2014

 

Learn more at:

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/

 

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Arrivederci Roma: Venice to vote in week-long independence referendum

Arrivederci Roma: Venice to vote in week-long independence referendum | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
Venetians are called to the polls this week to decide whether or not they want to split from Italy and make Venice, and its region Venetia, “an independent and sovereign republic.” The vote, which…
Socionomics Institute's insight:

Major social-mood declines trigger anger that is expressed in social division, disillusionment with government, civil unrest, and, at large enough degrees, war.

 

Click here to learn more: http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/2010/02/a-survey-of-u-s-secessionism-negative-social-mood-will-vent-but-where/#axzz2wFRkDeDe

 

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America the Shrunken

America the Shrunken | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it

NOT long ago I asked a good friend of mine — one of the smartest men I know, and one of the most devoted dads — if he thought that his children would live in a more prosperous America or at least enjoy the same bounty of opportunities that we had.

 

His response was instant and unequivocal. No.

 

"How do you make peace with that?” I said.

 

He shrugged, laughed bitterly and answered, “I’m hoping to leave them a lot of money.”

 

The American dream, 2014 edition: Squirrel away nuts for a leaner tomorrow. The worst is yet to come, so insure yourself against it if you’re among the lucky few who can.

 

There’s been a palpable change in the stride, the spirit and maybe even the character of our country.

Socionomics Institute's insight:

This is about as good an account as you'll find of the growing negative social mood in the US today.

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Walter Russell Mead | Geopolitics are Back in, China, Iran, Russia, and the United States | Foreign Affairs

Walter Russell Mead | Geopolitics are Back in, China, Iran, Russia, and the United States | Foreign Affairs | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
So far, the year 2014 has been a tumultuous one, as geopolitical rivalries have stormed back to center stage.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

When most people forecast cultural trends, they default to a Newtonian physics paradigm: An object in motion tends to remain in motion unless acted upon by an outside force.

 

Economists who view cultural trends like physical objects in motion perpetuate two fallacies.

1) They extrapolate the current trend into the future.
2) They believe an event must happen to change the trend’s direction

 

Understanding social mood is crucial to anticipating social trends. Such understanding liberates analysts from the fallacies of trend extrapolation and reliance upon exogenous causality.

 

To learn more go to:

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/2009/09/the-fallacies-of-trend-extrapolation-and-reliance-upon-exogenous-causality/#axzz30aDU2JxI

 

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Reviving Clemency, Serving Justice

Reviving Clemency, Serving Justice | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it

On Wednesday, April 23, the Justice Department announced what would be the most sweeping reinvigoration of the clemency power in nearly four decades. This time, the purpose is to deal with the aftermath of the war on drugs, whose casualties are the thousands of people sentenced under harsh and outdated laws.

“For our criminal justice system to be effective, it needs to not only be fair; but it also must be perceived as being fair,” Deputy Attorney General James Cole said in a speech introducing the new policy. “These older, stringent punishments that are out of line with sentences imposed under today’s laws erode people’s confidence in our criminal justice system.”

Socionomics Institute's insight:

With the US prison system dependent on drug arrests—particularly marijuana—any continued movement toward legalization will have a negative impact on the industry of incarceration. Compounding the problem is the impact decreased drug arrests will have on police budgets already dependent on cash and vehicles seized from suspected drug dealers. With fewer resources come fewer arrests, fewer convictions and fewer inmates.

 

A gut punch to the prison industry, particularly private prisons contracted by the government, will come when, as we described in 2009, states begin to argue that they can “save money by releasing non-violent drug offenders from prison.”

 

The Socionomist, November 2013

Learn more by reading The Socionomist here: http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/more_info/the-socionomist.aspx?code=SOCIONET&latest=on

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Retired Justice John Paul Stevens: Marijuana Should Be Legal

Retired Justice John Paul Stevens: Marijuana Should Be Legal | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
In an interview with NPR's Scott Simon, Stevens compares making pot illegal to the attempt to prohibit alcohol. Like alcohol, he said, there will soon be a consensus that it is not worth the cost.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

We predicted in last month’s Socionomist that governments will relax drug laws during periods of negative social mood. This month, the Mexican government voted to legalize small doses of marijuana, cocaine and heroin. A week later, Argentina’s Supreme Court unanimously ruled to decriminalize adult possession of marijuana for personal use. Brazil and Ecuador are considering similar steps. These are the first steps toward complete legalization of these drugs, which could happen deeper in the bear market.

The Socionomist, August 2009

 

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/more_info/the-socionomist.aspx?code=SOCIONET&latest=on

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Weapon of Last Resort: ECB Considers Possible Deflation Measures

Weapon of Last Resort: ECB Considers Possible Deflation Measures | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it

Though the European Central Bank continues to play down deflation concerns, it is preparing measures to combat falling prices in the event of an emergency.

Socionomics Institute's insight:

Are you prepared to survive, even prosper through a deflationary crash?

 

Learn how here: http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/club/deflation-ebook/default.aspx

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Ebola: A swift, effective and bloody killer

Ebola: A swift, effective and bloody killer | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
Dr. Sanjay Gupta explains how Ebola is a swift, effective and bloody killer.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

Our socionomic and Elliott wave analysis suggest that social mood has completed an upward wave of monumental size and shifted to the negative at Grand Supercycle degree—which is one degree larger than the change in mood that created the Great Depression. This shift is driving rapid changes for the worse in financial markets, economies, personal fortunes and the quality of life. The scale of this mood shift means that the bulk of the largest bear market since 1720 still lies ahead, increasing our risk of an encounter with one of the grim reapers of major social mood decline, epidemic disease.

-- The Socionomist, May 2009

 

Learn more at http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/

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Has Warren Buffett really lost his mojo? Statistician sparks debate

Has Warren Buffett really lost his mojo? Statistician sparks debate | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
A study points to the Oracle of Omaha's recent underperformance as evidence he is losing his ability to produce alpha, but defenders aren't convinced.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

Buffet’s $89 billion portfolio, which he accurately depicts as an “all-in wager on the economic future of the United States,” is decidedly unhedged. The Oracle of Omaha is loaded to the gills with railroads, insurance companies and other economic staples such as Coca Cola, Proctor & Gamble and IBM. As the economy contracts further, his personal fortune will suffer a mighty blow and his bull market image will leave him vulnerable to open hostility.

 

– The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, July 2012

 

Learn more at http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.elliottwave.com/

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Military Mental Health Services AWOL

Military Mental Health Services AWOL | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
Socionomics Institute's insight:

A USA Today Cartoon expresses society's frustration with the slow response to the military's mental health "epidemic."

 

Read more at http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/tag/epidemics/page/4/

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Hospital infections kill 200 daily in US

Hospital infections kill 200 daily in US | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
WASHINGTON, March 26, 2014 (AFP) - People who are hospitalized in the United States risk acquiring healthcare-associated infections, which kill 75,000 patients per year, US health authorities said Wednesday.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

Socionomics posits that trends in social mood—widely shared feelings including those of optimism and pessimism—unfold in a hierarchical pattern of similarly shaped waves that are visible in charts of stock prices, a sensitive meter of social mood. Major epidemics tend to occur near negative extremes in social mood—and therefore near significant bottoms in stock prices—and can persist well into the subsequent uptrend.

-- The Elliott Wave Theorist, February 2014

 

Learn more at http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/tag/epidemics/page/4/

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Is misinformation about the climate criminally negligent?

Is misinformation about the climate criminally negligent? | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
The importance of clearly communicating science to the public should not be underestimated. Accurately understanding our natural environment and sharing that information can be a matter of life or death…
Socionomics Institute's insight:

The global-warming scare is highly reminiscent of the Alar scare, in which Congress called upon the expertise of movie stars; the ozone-depletion scare and the acid-rain scare, which have all but vanished; the claim that pesticides were making frogs lame (it turned out to be a virus); the rash of reports of devil worshippers, who were never found; the national child-care molestation hysteria, which turned out to be almost entirely contrived; the panic in Europe over poison in Coca-Cola; and any number of like manias. Hysteria often signals the end of a trend. – The Elliott Wave Theorist, November 2012

 

Learn more:

http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/

 

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Marijuana study in veterans wins federal backing

Marijuana study in veterans wins federal backing | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it

The federal government has signed off on a long-delayed study looking at marijuana as a treatment for veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder, a development that drug researchers are hailing as a shift in U.S. policy.

Socionomics Institute's insight:

"Once there was the Gold Rush in the western United States. Now that states have begun legalizing marijuana use, there’s the Green Rush."

 

Learn more at: http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.socionomics.net/

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Fed to blame for distorting US financial markets?

Fed to blame for distorting US financial markets? | Social Mood Watch | Scoop.it
A U.S. Federal Reserve policymaker who has criticized its bond-buying stimulus said the program has lasted too long and may be distorting markets.
Socionomics Institute's insight:

If the Fed’s new dollars have gone anywhere, they seem to have gone through banks to institutional stock market speculators.

 

The Elliott Wave Theorist, July/August, 2013

 

Learn more at: http://www.elliottwave.com/r.asp?rcn=3rdpsismw&url=http://www.elliottwave.com

 

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