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Putin's Personal Army - Mark Galeotti, In Moscow's Shadows

Putin's Personal Army - Mark Galeotti, In Moscow's Shadows | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
The idea of creating a National Guard (NG) for Russia bringing together public security forces under a single command has been raised periodically and always abandoned for very good reasons, not least the lack of any apparent need to have a Praetorian Guard on steroids. In 2012, for example, I didn't think it likely: it…
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Arms Control and International Security: Remarks on the One-Year Anniversary of the JCPOA:

Arms Control and International Security: Remarks on the One-Year Anniversary of the JCPOA: | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
Remarks on the One-Year Anniversary of the JCPOA
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Acrobatics, Big Planes (A380 & A400M) & Little Planes (Gripen & Starduster)

Acrobatics, Big Planes (A380 & A400M) & Little Planes (Gripen & Starduster) | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
The F-35B isn’t flying again til Friday so you won’t see it here. Today was the first day of halfway decent weather at the biennial air show so we’ve got some pretty lovely flying and perspectives here. Enjoy!
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Kongsberg, Raytheon Plan Missile Production In Arizona

Kongsberg, Raytheon Plan Missile Production In Arizona | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
FARNBOROUGH: In a clear effort to defang critics who might slam their product as — gasp — foreign, Raytheon and the Norwegian defense firm Kongsberg told reporters here they will build a production line in Tuscon, Ariz. to build advanced missiles for the U.S. Navy. The first missile to get built should be the Naval Strike Missile, but the plant should be able to handle the closely-related Joint Strike Missile, built for the F-35 A and C fleets. Kongsberg and Raytheon are eagerly targeting the US market for both missiles. The JSM is the first missile designed with the F-35 in mind and Norway has spent $1 billion putting it through research, development, test and evaluation. The two companies will “assemble, integrate and test” the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) and build its launchers in the United States. The NSM can be packed into a standard shipping container and placed aboard a wide array of ships, noted Thomas Copeman, a top man in Raytheon Missile Systems and former commander of Surface Naval Forces for the U.S. Navy. This is clearly intended to take advantage of the Navy’s focus on what it calls Distributed Lethality, a push to arm virtually all naval vessels. A key part of the two companies’ push is designed to get missiles aboard the Littoral Combat Ship fleet. The Navy tested NSM from USS Coronado in September 2014understand that the Littoral Combat Ship could carry twice as many NSMs –eight –as Lockheed Martin’s Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles (LRASM) or Boeing’s venerable Harpoons — four. The NSM is light, weighing in at only 985 pounds. The missile is also tested and already deployed, in use by Norway and Poland. In the long run, however, the JSM looks to be the larger market for the two defense companies. It can be used on all 1,763 F-35As the US Air Force plans to buy, as well as the 530 F-35Cs that the Navy and Marine Corps should buy. How much did Norway do to make this missile fit the F-35? They changed its shape so it would fit in the bomb bay. It’s designed with a “unique thermal management system” said Pal Brattlie, executive vice president for Kongsberg Defense Systems, “as we understand it’s quite hot in the F-35’s bomb bay.” The missile boasts passive sensors, Brattlie said, so it does not emit and attract countermeasures, in keeping with the Joint Strike Fighter’s Low Observable approach to warfare.  
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The South China Sea Case - What China Can Learn? - Zheng Wang, The Diplomat

The South China Sea Case - What China Can Learn? - Zheng Wang, The Diplomat | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
After a major diplomatic set-back, a look back at how China got to this point.
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Reuters reports no new reactor construction first half of 2016--1st time that's happened since 1995

Reuters reports no new reactor construction first half of 2016--1st time that's happened since 1995 | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
Construction starts for new nuclear reactors fell to zero globally in the first half of 2016 as the atomic industry struggles against falling costs for renewables and a slowdown in Chinese building, a report on the industry showed on Wednesday.
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Why the U.S. Military Can’t Fix Syria

Why the U.S. Military Can’t Fix Syria | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
More American involvement in the Middle East’s biggest quagmire will definitely end badly.
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KC-46 Refuels F-16, C-17 With Retooled Boom - Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One

KC-46 Refuels F-16, C-17 With Retooled Boom - Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
The Boeing-made plane, with some new hardware, successfully refueled a C-17 during a test Tuesday night.
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Beijing Tries to Refocus SCS Dispute - Jeremy Page & Chun Han Wong, WSJ

Beijing Tries to Refocus SCS Dispute - Jeremy Page & Chun Han Wong, WSJ | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
China sought to refocus a dispute over the South China Sea on sovereignty over land, rather than historic rights to surrounding waters, following an unfavorable ruling by an international tribunal.
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Latest Analysis: Time to Ban Cluster Munitions Transfers, Rethink Approach to Treaty

Latest Analysis: Time to Ban Cluster Munitions Transfers, Rethink Approach to Treaty | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
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One year after Iran nuclear deal, poll shows growing disappointment among Iranians

One year after Iran nuclear deal, poll shows growing disappointment among Iranians | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
About 71.8 percent say they have little or no confidence that the U.S. will live up to its obligations.
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Meeting of Iran central bank, U.S. Treasury, international banks postponed

Meeting of Iran central bank, U.S. Treasury, international banks postponed | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
A meeting between the Iranian central bank, the U.S. Treasury and international banks in London to discuss stalled progress on banks resuming ties with Iran after U.S. sanctions were lifted in January has been postponed, the British government said.
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The View From Beijing: Chinese Ambassador Blasts UN Tribunal

The View From Beijing: Chinese Ambassador Blasts UN Tribunal | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
WASHINGTON: After a UN tribunal ruled stingingly against Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, Beijing reacted with its characteristically prickly mix of grandiosity and insecurity. The official Chinese perspective inverts Washington’s worldview so thoroughly it can be hard for Americans to understand: International rules are rigged, US military presence is destabilizing, China rightfully owns the whole South China Sea and is being generous to let its lesser neighbors use it at all. When China’s ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, says benignly that “we are not trying to take back the islands and reefs that have been illegally occupied by others,” he’s referring to almost everything claimed by every other country in the region. Amb. Cui laid out Beijing’s point of view beautifully yesterday afternoon, speaking (in English) just hours after the UN ruling in an unscheduled appearance at a Center for Strategic & International Studies conference. We asked some leading experts to help us parse his remarks. “This case was initiated not out of good will or good faith,” Cui said of the Philippine appeal to the UN tribunal. “it is a clear attempt to use a legal instrument for political purposes.” What’s more, Cui said, the Philippines’ legal case was cynically coordinated with America’s “so-called pivoting to Asia,” which manifested in “mounting activities by destroyers, aircraft carriers, strategic bombers, reconnaissance planes and many others…. This is an outright manifestation of ‘might is right.’” There’s an obvious irony here. From Washington’s perspective, it’s China and Russia that practice “lawfare,” using international bodies to delay or obfuscate while their military forces seize objectives in “grey zone” operations short of war, be it a disputed reef in the South China Sea or the entire Crimean Peninsula. “Others are accusing China of a ‘might makes right’ approach,” said CSIS China scholar Bonnie Glaser. “The Chinese consistently portray themselves as being generous and restrained, always willing to lend a hand to their tiny neighbors. It’s hard to believe they really see it that way. Let’s recall Yang Jiechi in 2010 telling the ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) that ‘we are the big country, and you are all small countries.’” Yet when the US Navy steams into view, the Chinese feel like a “small country” themselves. The Fundamental Paradox There’s an acute paradox at the heart of modern Chinese nationalism that outside observers have to understand. On the one hand, Chinese patriots remember millennia in which the “Middle Kingdom” dominated East Asia, with neighboring nations from Korea to Vietnam paying tribute or at least lip service to the Emperor. Even in 1949, when it was struggling to protect its own capital from Mao’s advancing Communists, the Chinese Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek issued a map with the now-infamous “Nine-Dash Line” claiming virtually all the South China Sea. It’s this history that Amb. Cui invokes when he declares “China has long-standing sovereignty of the islands and reefs in the South China Sea, and this sovereignty had never been challenged until the late 1970s.” On the other hand, the Chinese also remember the bitter “Century of Humiliation” which started with the Opium War, when the Royal Navy forced China, at gunpoint, to import a lethally addictive drug. Western powers extracted all kinds of concessions using superior military power and flimsy legal pretexts. The experience which didn’t predispose modern China to trust either a UN tribunal or the US Navy. “Such an assembly of aircraft carriers, airplanes, sophisticated weapons could pose a real threat to the freedom of navigation of commercial and civilian vessels,” said Cui. “Such a concentration of firepower, anywhere in the word, would be a source of concern.” “The Chinese bear acute and deeply felt memories…of the humiliation and weakness suffered at the hands of invasive Western powers,” said Peter Haynes of the Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments. “British (and later Western) sea power fundamentally changed China, and not for the better.” America came late to the intervention party, but US Marines joined the multinational march on Peking in 1900. In 1950 General Douglas MacArthur led an American army north towards the Yalu and advocated an invasion of Communist China, one beginning with atomic bombs. Even without nukes, American firepower killed an estimated quarter-million Chinese “volunteers” in Korea. As late as 1996, American warships sailed between mainland China and Taiwan when Beijing tried to intimidate what it considered a wayward province. Scarred by such unpleasant encounters with US and European forces, said Haynes, “the Chinese are loath to admit that Western sea power has historically enabled the growth and stability of the global economy by ensuring the free-flow of the 95 percent of the world’s trade” — free trade which has enabled China’s rapid rise. Stability, Chinese Style In Beijing’s eyes, US forces that enter Chinese-claimed airspace or waters to demonstrate “freedom of navigation” are dangerous aggression. “Intensified military activities so close to Chinese islands and reefs, or even entering the waters, the neighboring waters of the islands and reefs, these activities certainly have the risk of leading to some conflict,” said Cui. But any US military presence is automatically suspect. For Southeast Asian countries that welcome the Americans, Cui warned, “please go to countries like Iraq, Libya, and Syria, and ask the people there” what US intervention has brought: “Be careful what you wish, you might actually get it.” “Tensions started to rise about five or six years ago, about the same time when you began to hear about the so-called pivoting to Asia,” Cui said ominiously. “Such an exercise of so called pivoting have not brought us a more stabilized Asia… It has made conflict and dispute such a prominent issue on the regional agenda.” Until the US showed up, China and its Southeast Asian neighbors got along as “a community of common destiny,” Cui argued. (Vietnam, which fought several wars and skirmishes with China since 1973, might disagree). Only in the 1970s was Chinese suzerainty “challenged,” Cui said, and even then the disputes were manageable and regional relationships friendly until a few years ago, when the US pivot began. China’s island-building is not to blame, Cui insisted. “Some might put the blame on China, on China’s recent reclamation activities, but the fact is, China is the last country to do so.” It is true that other countries reclaimed small areas of land before China did, Glaser said, but China did it much faster and on a vastly larger scale. As for the US pivot, it’s been widely criticized for adding very few new forces to those that have been in the Pacific since the end of the Korean War. “The only reason tensions may not have been rising before (the pivot) that is China was bullying and coercing its neighbors in the region without much pushback,” said CSBA’s Bryan Clark. “When the U.S. made clear its intent to stay focused on the region, China intensified its efforts in response and its neighbors began to feel more confident in opposing Chinese pressure.” From China’s perspective, however, America — and the UN tribunal for that matter — are meddling in what’s none of their affair. The territorial disputes should be handled bilaterally by the parties involved, one-on-one between China and its (much weaker) neighbors. “For issues like territorial disputes, it’s only natural that the parties concerned should have direct talks with each other, (because) if you’re not a claimant, if you have no stakes there, real stakes there, how can you negotiate with other parties?” Cui said. “This case of arbitration itself is also something that could have the consequences of destabilizing the region, because it undermines the diplomatic efforts.” “Diplomatic efforts should not be blocked and will not be blocked by a scrap of paper (i.e. the UN tribunal ruling) or by a fleet of aircraft carriers,” Cui said. “China remains committed to negotiations and consultation with other parties, this position has never changed and will not change.” “They see ‘stability’ as a situation where China makes the rules and their neighbors abide by them,” said Clark. “The stability he advocates consists of a stable Chinese boot on the necks of its neighbors. The Southeast Asian countries may prefer some instability to Chinese hegemony.”
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Raytheon Piles On Cyber, Electronic Warfare Protections

Raytheon Piles On Cyber, Electronic Warfare Protections | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
FARNBOROUGH: Raytheon keeps pushing cyber at its air show appearances, clearly convinced that the Pentad’s commitment to building cyber protection in every weapon system from airplanes, to missiles to, well, everything, Opposite its impressive — and never before displayed — wall of missiles, the company’s largest display is a room equipped with two commercial drones and three video walls, all dedicated to demonstrating to customers what the company claims is its comprehensive approach to protecting them from the possible vulnerabilities of the vaunted Internet of Things. A small team at its 31,000 square foot Cyber Operations, Development and Evaluation (CODE) Center considers threats to all the company’s weapons, as well as any the Pentagon might flag to them, Chief Technology Officer Michael Daly told me as some co-workers prepared to demonstrate the ability to hack into and to protect a pair of drones. (See the video above.) The demonstration made crystal clear how deeply intertwined Electronic Warfare is with cyber. One drone is hacked using radio waves to access it and then code is used to disable it. Code is rewritten and then broadcast using radio waves to protect the second drone from malicious code. It ain’t rocket science, but it dramatically illustrates how the two interact and often become difficult to distinguish one from the other.  
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Analysis by CTBT Youth Group member Rabia Akhtar on nonproliferation dynamics in Asia:

Analysis by CTBT Youth Group member Rabia Akhtar on nonproliferation dynamics in Asia: | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
Editor's note: The Stimson Center recently released The Lure and Pitfalls of MIRVs: From the First to the Second Nuclear Age, an edited volume that takes a retrospective look at the U.S.-Soviet experience with MIRVs and explores the second coming of MIRVs in contemporary Asia. In this SAV review series, SAV contributors Sitakanta Mishra, Amina Afzal, Rabia Akhtar, Sadia Tasleem, and Debak Das review each chapter with special attention to the implications for South Asia and future research. Read the entire series here. By Rabia Akhtar:  Review of “China’s Belated Embrace of MIRVs” by Jeffrey G. Lewis in The Lure and Pitfalls of MIRVs: From the First to the Second Nuclear Age Chapter Summary The essay on “China’s Belated Embrace of MIRVs” by Jeffrey G. Lewis is part of the new book The Lure and Pitfalls of MIRVs: From the First to the Second Nuclear Age published by the Stimson Center earlier this year. The title of the book lets us in on the dilemma confronting China after its 2015 decision to deploy multiple independently targetable re-entry-vehicles (MIRVs). In Lewis’ opinion, Beijing sees MIRVs as attractive delivery systems in so far as they facilitate greater warhead accuracy and maintain a certain ‘qualitative equivalence’ in technological capabilities vis-à-vis Washington. MIRVs might also give China the technical edge it requires to counter nascent U.S. missile defenses. Yet, multiple-warhead missiles are not without drawbacks. One danger is that MIRVs could draw the People’s Republic into a costly quantitative arms race with the United States. Other possibilities that Lewis explores in great detail are whether China’s deployment of MIRVs could lead to “classic forms of deterrence instability” and “operational entanglement” (p. 113) involving sea- and space-based forces, scenarios that could increase the likelihood of a nuclear exchange during a Sino-American conflict. Lewis concludes his chapter with a call for Washington to engage Beijing diplomatically if only to force the Chinese bureaucracy to confront these dilemmas before a crisis emerges. Convincing Arguments There are several things that stand out about the Chinese nuclear modernization after reading this essay: First, China’s attempts to modernize its nuclear arsenal – through embracing MIRVs or building missile defenses – are a reaction to U.S. conventional and nuclear modernization programs. In effect, China is engaged in a technological competition with the United States that it cannot escape despite its efforts to maintain a restrained nuclear posture. No arms control arrangement appears to be on the horizon given prevalent U.S.-Chinese strategic dynamics, a concern for South Asia because China’s evolving nuclear posture motivates Indian modernization, and, in turn, Pakistan’s nuclear stockpiling. This underscores that the nuclear spiral in which India and Pakistan are engaged is driven by strategic competition between Beijing and Washington in addition to the subcontinental rivalry. Second, Chinese nuclear forces are vulnerable to a U.S. first strike, particularly since China has a no first use (NFU) policy, but the United States does not. It is anybody’s guess whether the United States would be tempted to conduct a pre-emptive strike in the event of a crisis given its massive and precise conventional and nuclear capabilities. This vulnerability has pushed the Chinese to modernize their nuclear arsenal, which is neither as sophisticated nor as modern as the U.S. or Russian variants. This is where MIRVing becomes important. China is already putting multiple warheads on its largest missiles (the DF-5 and, perhaps, the DF-41) and may develop smaller warheads in the future. According to Lewis, silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) remain vulnerable to attack, but Chinese MIRVed DF-5s that survived a U.S. first strike would pose “the greatest challenge possible to U.S. missile defenses.” (p. 110) But the debate has moved beyond mere survivability and the lack of credible nuclear retaliatory counterweight to supporting launch-on-warning status, a readiness posture that the United States currently maintains (with a variation of launch-on-attack). This shift to high-alert status, if made by China as a move to strengthen its fragile deterrence vis-à-vis the United States, would add to the already precarious strategic stability in the region, pulling India and Pakistan towards reconsidering their readiness postures. Reasoned Critique Lewis’ assessment of China’s case lends useful lessons for new nuclear states. First, Lewis’s analysis seems to suggest that China has generated specific technological disadvantages for itself by signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Even though the United States is also a signatory to the CTBT, the technological sophistication of U.S. R&D allows for testing of new weapons designs through computer simulations, a feat that China may not be able to match. This is not to say that the international community should have given China a free pass to conduct additional nuclear tests in the 1990s. The point is that the advantages of staying outside the treaty framework and retaining the right to test in the name of national security – or even maintaining the ambiguity about testing – may be more apparent to other countries as China struggles to surmount CTBT-imposed limitations. The rationale of India and Pakistan remaining outside the CTBT framework – despite their unilateral moratoriums on nuclear testing – can perhaps be understood through this prism. Second, the NFU posture that China has adopted restricts its strike options vis-à-vis the United States, which does not adhere to an NFU. According to Lewis, Chinese ICBMs in silos – MIRVed or not – are vulnerable to a U.S. first strike. This might incentivize China to deploy submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) as a counter-measure. In that situation, whether China has an NFU would not really matter. Once the Chinese SLBMs are in the Pacific, the Sino-U.S. equation becomes mutually vulnerable. This would also make the whole region more crisis prone given the fact that no matter what China can accomplish, its development and capabilities will remain asymmetric to those of the United States. Any increase in Chinese conventional or nuclear capabilities will create incentives for India to modernize, which in turn will justify Pakistan’s development of new doctrines and postures. There is no end in sight to the operational entanglement Lewis writes of in his essay as China and the United States are not the only strategically entangled players. Lewis’s lack of allusion to this complexity in the Asia-Pacific region weakens his analysis overall. Future Research If the recipe for peace is U.S. diplomatic engagement with China in “the form of arms control accords – formal or tacit” as Lewis suggests, then it can only happen if the United States: a) scales back its conventional and nuclear modernization drive, b) refreshes its pledge for nuclear disarmament, and c) reduces the space for further operational entanglement by staying towards its side of the Atlantic and the Pacific. Future research in this regard can look at how the drive to technological determinism be moderated. Should there be a cut-off on modernization of nuclear capabilities? Should there be a standard for all nuclear weapons states to maintain their nuclear stockpiles and not modernize or invent new capabilities? If maneuverable hypersonic weapons may be outfitted with nuclear warheads in the future, then shouldn’t they be banned now while countries like the United States, Russia, China, and India are in the process of developing them? Achieving universal ratification and entry into force (EIF) of the CTBT is perhaps the single most important step through which technological determinism prevalent in the strategic competition in Asia can be checked and moderated. However, to generate the momentum for the closure and EIF of the CTBT, the United States and China would need to jointly lead the way by simultaneously ratifying the treaty and then inviting India and Pakistan to simultaneously sign and ratify the CTBT. It might sound like an idealistic solution to a complex problem, but this is the one with real potential for preventing not one but multiple nuclear holocausts. Photo credit:  Mark爱生活 via Flickr
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The F-35 Era Takes Flight - Jay Bennett, Popular Mechanics

The F-35 Era Takes Flight - Jay Bennett, Popular Mechanics | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
After years of technical delays, performance issues, and massive cost overruns, the Joint Strike fighter is finally coming into its own. Now we get to see whether it was worth the cost.​
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Beijing Considers Next Moves After Hague Ruling - Seema Mody, CNBC

Beijing Considers Next Moves After Hague Ruling - Seema Mody, CNBC | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
The world will now be watching with bated breath as to what President Xi Jinping’s course of action will be.
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Bell Pitches Naval Variant of new Tiltrotor V-280 - Hope Hodge Seck, DB

Bell Pitches Naval Variant of new Tiltrotor V-280 - Hope Hodge Seck, DB | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
FARNBOROUGH, England -- Designers with Fort Worth's Bell Helicopter are about 60 percent into building a prototype of a tiltrotor aircraft that they say will
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U.S. THAAD Heading to S. Korean Farm Town - Hyung-Jin Kim, et. al, AP

U.S. THAAD Heading to S. Korean Farm Town - Hyung-Jin Kim, et. al, AP | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — An advanced U.S. missile defense system will be deployed in a rural farming town in southeastern South Korea, Seoul officials announced Wednesday, angering no
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Is Turkey's 'Deep State' Negotiating a Deal With Assad? - Ceren Kenar, Foreign Policy

Is Turkey's 'Deep State' Negotiating a Deal With Assad? - Ceren Kenar, Foreign Policy | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
Turkey’s ‘Deep State’ Has a Secret Backchannel to Assad « | Foreign Policy | the Global Magazine of News and Ideas
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UN: Link exists between climate, human rights

UN: Link exists between climate, human rights | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
Influential UN body considers human rights and climate change post-Paris, emphasises importance of the climate negotiations in protecting communities
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Bahrain makes arrests over bombing that killed woman, blames Iran

Bahrain makes arrests over bombing that killed woman, blames Iran | Shahriyar Gourgi | Scoop.it
Bahrain has arrested two men suspected of planting a bomb that killed a Bahraini woman in late June and of having received training and support from Iran, the interior ministry said on Tuesday. A ministry statement identified a third suspect in the blast but said he had fled to Iran, the Middle East's Shi'ite Muslim power across the Gulf from Sunni Muslim-ruled Bahrain.
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