I had a [Christian] friend who was also a co-worker and we were talking about books on day so I told her she might want to check out Barnes and Noble in Evansville Indiana. This was on a Friday.
The next Monday at lunch she was raving about how great the Barnes and Noble was as she had left her friend there while she shopped some store her friend didn't want to shop. When she picked up her friend from Barnes and Noble after a couple hours her friend told her about a book she had read while she was waiting at Barnes and Noble.
"She read a book in Barnes and Noble?" I asked, quite shocked. "Yes" came the answer. I told my friend that Barnes and Noble was a book store where you buy books to read not read the books for free. "You're only suppose to read a few pages or maybe the first chapter to see if you like the book enough to buy it" My friend was shocked that Barnes and Noble wasn't a Library where you read books for free.
I'm often astonished at the ignorance of some people however this one is a classic. My friend had intended to start leaving her friend at Barnes and Noble while she shopped so she could read books!!
The ironic thing is Evansville Indiana has several public library locations where she could take her friend to read a large selection of books....
Who is that iconic millionaire next door? The answer may surprise you.
It's nice to finely read a profile of us that reflects reality of those of us who work hard, save money, well this part of the article describes my wife and I quite well..
"The millionaire next door is unlikely to drive an expensive sports car and take lavish vacations. Millionaires are a generally thrifty group of people who attribute their wealth primarily to hard work, education, smart investing and frugality."
Proving History: Bayes's Theorem and the Quest for the Historical Jesus: Richard C.
5.0 out of 5 stars Brilliant Book but Not For Everyone April 5, 2012 By Book Fanatic TOP 500 REVIEWERVINE™ VOICE
This is an amazing book by Richard Carrier. It is important to note that this book is not a book on whether or not Jesus was a historical person. Dr. Carrier is writing a second book to follow up this one called "On the Historicity of Jesus Christ" that will address that question. He does touch on the subject somewhat in this book, but the purpose of this book is to lay the theoretical groundwork for the next volume.
argues quite persuasively that historians should employ Bayes's Theorem in their work and of course that includes work on the historical Jesus. Regardless of what you think about that subject, if you are a thinking person, I think you should read this book. If you care about how we know what we know and how likely your beliefs are to be correct you should read this book. In that regard it is excellent. It does have a fairly narrow focus but that focus is on something that has incredibly wide application.
I'm just a lay person interested in science, history, and philosophy among other things. I'm not a professor or specialist in any relevant fields. I found this book an incredibly helpful guide to rigorous thought. This book is definitely not for everyone. Sometimes the author talks too much, but the points are valid and you just need to work through them. This is not light reading, although it is written in a way to be accessible to intelligent readers. You must be willing to put in some work if you are not already well versed in the theory.
I can't wait for the follow up volume where Dr. Carrier actually applies all this to the subject of a historical Jesus. I've now read several of Carrier's books and seen him on some video clips. He's a very articulate man and always seems to have something brilliant to say. I admit that I'm a fan.
Bayesian probability From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Bayesian probability is one of the different interpretations of the concept of probability and belongs to the category of evidential probabilities. The Bayesian interpretation of probability can be seen as an extension of logic that enables reasoning with propositions whose truth or falsity is uncertain. To evaluate the probability of a hypothesis, the Bayesian probabilist specifies some prior probability, which is then updated in the light of new, relevant data.[1
The Bayesian interpretation provides a standard set of procedures and formulae to perform this calculation. Bayesian probability interprets the concept of probability as "an abstract concept, a quantity that we assign theoretically, for the purpose of representing a state of knowledge, or that we calculate from previously assigned probabilities," in contrast to interpreting it as a frequency or "propensity" of some phenomenon.
The term "Bayesian" refers to the 18th century mathematician and theologian Thomas Bayes, who provided the first mathematical treatment of a non-trivial problem of Bayesian inference. Nevertheless, it was the French mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace, who pioneered and popularised what is now called Bayesian probability.
Broadly speaking, there are two views on Bayesian probability that interpret the probability concept in different ways. According to the objectivist view, the rules of Bayesian statistics can be justified by requirements of rationality and consistency and interpreted as an extension of logic. According to the subjectivist view, probability quantifies a "personal belief". Many modern machine learning methods are based on objectivist Bayesian principles. In the Bayesian view, a probability is assigned to a hypothesis, whereas under the frequentist view, a hypothesis is typically tested without being assigned a probability.
In general, Bayesian methods are characterized by the following concepts and procedures:
The use of hierarchical models and marginalization over the values of nuisance parameters. In most cases, the computation is intractable, but good approximations can be obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
The sequential use of the Bayes' formula: when more data become available after calculating a posterior distribution, the posterior becomes the next prior.
For the frequentist a hypothesis is a proposition (which must be either true or false), so that the frequentist probability of a hypothesis is either one or zero. In Bayesian statistics, a probability can be assigned to a hypothesis that can differ from 0 or 1 if the truth value is uncertain.
Objective and subjective Bayesian probabilities
Broadly speaking, there are two views on Bayesian probability that interpret the 'probability' concept in different ways. For objectivists, probability objectively measures the plausibility of propositions, i.e. the probability of a proposition corresponds to a reasonable belief everyone (even a "robot") sharing the same knowledge should share in accordance with the rules of Bayesian statistics, which can be justified by requirements of rationality and consistency. For subjectivists probability corresponds to a 'personal belief'. For subjectivists rationality and coherence constrain the probabilities a subject may have, but allow for substantial variation within those constraints. The objective and subjective variants of Bayesian probability differ mainly in their interpretation and construction of the prior probability.
This has come up in comments a few times, as recently as yesterday, and it's evidenced again by my mixed reaction to President Obama's address last night, and it will probably be an increasing point of some interest as we get closer to Election Day, so let me just lay it out here.
I like and don't like President Obama. I like and don't like his presidency.
Secular Curated News/Views Editor's Note:
If POTUS Obama killing chidlren in the Middle East with Drones isn't enough to make one totally hate POTUS Obama then you might as well swallow his cum and love him.
What kind of sick fuck says "Gee, I love Obama even though he kills children"?
This week, Cindy Sheehan's Soapbox will be rerunning our classic interview with legendary, Yoko Ono Lennon.
In this primary season of Robber Class Party A vs. Robber Class Party B electoral frenzy, it's super important to remember that elections are at best, irrelevant to our daily lives, and at worst, harmful to peace and prosperity.
Yoko exhorts us to be "Pebble People," to choose healthful, peaceful, and helpful alternatives in our daily lives to improve ourselves and our communities.
Food Rules: An Eater's Manual: Michael Pollan: Amazon.com: Kindle Store...
1,122 of 1,144 people found the following review helpful 5.0 out of 5 stars This book is necessary..., December 29, 2009 By Kristine Hale (Utah) - See all my reviews (VINE VOICE) (REAL NAME) This review is from: Food Rules: An Eater's Manual (Paperback)
It is amazing how complicated we have allowed our diets, and our understanding of our diets, to become. Even Pollan's most recent book In Defense of Food: An Eaters Manifesto - which seemed to be a pretty simple premise - ended up being a (wonderfully) complicated journey through our food system. So when I read that this book was coming out, I wondered if it was necessary given the wealth of information already covered. The answer is: yes, this book is necessary.
While there are a million other guides to a healthy diet running around out there, few manage to boil down the essentials in such a usable way. Pollan takes the essential and fascinating information that he wrote about in his previous book and simmers it down into a succinct (the book is basically 70 half pages long) "manual" of rules for eating. While this book retains some of the bones of its predecessor, it is by no means a Cliff's Notes version. This manual is essential reading all on its own.
Food Rules is broken down into 3 sections (and this will sound familiar to those that read In Defense of Food): 1- What should I eat? (Eat food) 2 - What kind of food should I eat? (Mostly plants) and 3 - How should I eat? (Not too much). Each section includes 20 or so rules that you can pick and choose from in order to eat a healthy diet. Some of the rules overlap (Avoid food products that contain ingredients that a third-grader cannot pronounce and Avoid ingredients that no ordinary human would keep in the pantry, for instance) and some seem like such common sense that it is almost laughable to include them, but that is why this manual is so important. It distills all of this complex information that we see and hear every day and turns it into something relatable. We know, somewhere in our minds, that certain grains and oils are better than others. Pollan gives us an easy rule to help know which ones are best. We know that most breakfast cereals are little more than desserts and Pollan gives us an easy rule to know which ones are safe. Some rules are humorous (it's not food if it arrived through the window of your car) and some are serious; some rules are easy and others require a bit more dedication. But what this manual has is a wide range of useful tips that can be applied to any life at any time. This is no complicated diet; this is a little pocket book of sensible, realistic rules to help you eat your best.
BOSTON (AP) — Scott Freitas’ grandmother always followed the farmer’s almanac, but the fourth-generation farmer never does.
Selling corn and apples at a recent farmer’s market in Boston, Freitas said the almanacs are more for fun than real-life farm use, and he relies on experience instead.
“I do what our family’s been doing,” he said.
Many farmers like Freitas say farmer’s almanacs, known for their catchy weather predictions, are no longer a go-to source in the Information Age. Some, however, still turn to the centuries-old booklets for long-range weather predictions. The 2013 edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac hit shelves Wednesday.
“In the early days, I suppose it used to be the main source of information, maybe the only source of information,” said Annie Cheatham, executive director of the New England Farmers Union, which gets a copy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac every year. “Of course, that’s changed a lot with satellite information.”
The 221-year-old Old Farmer’s Almanac based in New Hampshire — not to be confused with the slightly younger Farmer’s Almanac based in Maine — predicts a cold winter in the East, South and Southwest and a mild winter in the Midwest, heartland and West Coast. Summer, however, will be warmer on the West and East Coasts and cooler throughout the rest of the country.
The Chik-fil-Aryan Games are a call to all white people who love their race and family friendly food," stated J.M, Saggs, organizer of the event. "What we are doing is offering a forum where Christian traditional families can enjoy traditional American/Christian sports: hillbilly handfishing, competitive noose tying, as well as the cross build and burn."
Work has been going on in the backwoods of Louisiana for quite some time. The stadium for the games has all ready been built, and locals love to visit for a chance to see the impressive building.
There's nothing more astonishing than for anyone of the Black Race to support Christianity whose Christian Bible clearly supports Slavery. Southern Slave Owners back in the day often quoted the Christian Bible in support of enslaving Blacks. It's a truly willful ignorant bunch that embraces a Superstition that enslaves it's own people. Utterly astonishing!
In this book you will find innovative ways to distill the wisdom of ordinary people to better guide public policy.
Beyond elections, public participation, and citizen input, we must find a way to produce wise public policy. In Empowering Public Wisdom, lifelong activist Tom Atlee shows how diverse views can be engaged around public issues in ways that generate a coherent, shared “voice of the people,” infusing the political process with common sense and guiding intelligent decision making.
James McGrath has reviewed my book Proving History. We’ve argued before (e.g. over claims Bart Ehrman made), so there is backstory. But his review is unexpectedly kind and praising at points, and he likes the overall project of explaining the underlying logic of history as fundamentally Bayesian and making productive use of that fact. He does conclude with some select criticism, though, and that is what I will respond to here.
The Signal: EP088 - Dogs and cats, living together! Musical forms from around the globe somehow glued together into a shambling 45 minute creation that may one day turn on its very master! SHIVER in your homes!
Okay, people. We all like a good scare, but let's relax, huh? It's just a music mix that's available for a limited amount of time with a tracklist in the id3 tags. It's not like it's---
IT'S GOT ME! HEEEEeeeeelp.... only... have strength for... lower-case letters! And proper... punctuation!
1. A not terribly funny audio clip from a quite funny source.