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Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook
All about Scenario Planning as a tool for strategy development
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The Diversity that is Scenario Planning: Church of Scotland

The Diversity that is Scenario Planning: Church of Scotland | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
THE Church of Scotland is to be asked to adopt strategies used by corporate giants such as Shell and BP to help plan for its uncertain future.
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Organizations of all types use scenario planning to find and explore the paths ahead.

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Can the U.S. Dollar Become Almighty Once Again? | TIME.com

Can the U.S. Dollar Become Almighty Once Again? | TIME.com | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
A stronger dollar could be a bellwether of an improving economy and a brighter outlook for U.S. stocks.
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The Law of Unintended Consequences: SITME and Venezuela's Currency Market

The Law of Unintended Consequences: SITME and Venezuela's Currency Market | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
The Law of Unintended Consequences: SITME and Venezuela's Currency Market - Universia Knowledge@Wharton
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Devaluation enhances Venezuela's position in the global currency wars.

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Forget Overcrowding. The World Population Could Start Declining.

Forget Overcrowding. The World Population Could Start Declining. | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
The world’s seemingly relentless march toward overpopulation achieved a notable milestone in 2012: Somewhere on the planet, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the 7 billionth living person came into existence.
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

The impacts of demographic changes are key to developing global scenarios.

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CFO And Chief Scenario Developer

CFO And Chief Scenario Developer | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
CFOs in Germany are increasingly feeling the effects of the euro crisis. As a result, they are turning their focus back to cost efficiency. According
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

You can now add scenario planning to your list of responsibilities. Advanced learning modules through strategic gaming can prepare you for the upside, the downside, or the sideways, of 2013. 

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CEB: In 2013, Companies Will Rely on Megatrends & Scenario Planning Instead of Confiding in Their Own Assumptions

CEB: In 2013, Companies Will Rely on Megatrends & Scenario Planning Instead of Confiding in Their Own Assumptions | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Topping the Corporate Executive Board's priority list for chief audit executives in 2013 is contingency planning. Second on CEB's “top 10” list is strategy creation and execution. Volatility is becoming the new normal.

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From Survival Tactics to Lasting Value: A More Effective Board of Directors

From Survival Tactics to Lasting Value: A More Effective Board of Directors | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Effective corporate governance is more complex and challenging than ever. Companies need boards to help them meet regulatory compliance basics- but the most effective boards are those that easily check that box. Organizations are obviously better served by high-performing, fully actualized boards that deliver solid strategic counsel and direction. To win the future, an enterprise must attract directors who can provide valuable, strategic input, while building a board that can draw on the diversity of its members' expertise and backgrounds — across geographies, gender, race, and experience — to create a whole that's literally greater than the sum of its parts.

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Getting Unstuck: Using Scenario Planning to Bring Columbia's FARC Out of the Jungle and to the Collaboration Table

The story of a 16 year voyage that tracks the Columbia's progress through scenarios that culmunates in a political platform that finds inspiration and solutions in the most-desired scenario. How to change the future by Adam Kahane.

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Trends & Scenario Group

Trends & Scenario Group | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

 Trends & Scenario Group is led by Matthew Spaniol and is dedicated to helping leaders get the most out of their scenario planning activities. Based in Copenhagen, Denmark, Trends & Scenario group operates worldwide. For help getting the most out of your scenario planning activities or to learn more about getting started with strategic scenario planning, contact Matthew Spaniol at +45 5012 6444, write to matthew.spaniol (at) gmail.com or on Skype at Springer08

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The Complex convergence behind the Global Riots of August 2013 [correction-July] [corrected again- June]... 2013

The Complex convergence behind the Global Riots of August 2013 [correction-July] [corrected again- June]... 2013 | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Back in 2011, complexity theorists hypothesized that if food prices followed their recent trends that unrest would be close behind. Low crop yields this year bring this scenario even closer than predicted. 

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The Internet of Things and Disruption

The Internet of Things and Disruption | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Combine the uncertainties inherent in forces of change through scenario planning and anticipate the disruptions to win.

 


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
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What Really Matters? Corporate Longevity Trumps Shareholder Value; Scenario Planning Reigns

What Really Matters? Corporate Longevity Trumps Shareholder Value; Scenario Planning Reigns | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Rank These in importance: Corporate longevity; Employee satisfaction; Providing employment opportunities to low-skilled workers; Customer satisfaction; Environmental impact; Short-term profits; Leadership compensation; Shareholder wealth accumulation.

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Create Organizational Downtime to Focus on Scenario Planning

Create Organizational Downtime to Focus on Scenario Planning | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Numerous analyses of the financial crisis showed executives overly focused on responding quickly to the competition, getting bogged down in the specifics of a deal, and failing to see beyond the immediate future. By giving managers the illusion of control, the rapid flow of information through new technologies threatens to rob them of real control. As demands pile up, managing can become more frenetic and superficial.

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Auditing the Future - Trends & Scenario Group

Auditing the Future - Trends & Scenario Group | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
What if we could begin auditing the future before it happens? How can we pass judgement on a strategy that is still only a sparkle in someone’s mind?
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Stress-Testing the Strategic Plan Using Scenario Planning Techniques

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The World in 2033: Big Thinkers And Futurists Share Their Thoughts

The World in 2033: Big Thinkers And Futurists Share Their Thoughts | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Could you have predicted the success of the web, tablets and smartphones, privatized space travel, the rise of terrorism, or the myriad of small changes that impact how you live today?  

 

Forbes have gathered a group of visionaries, leaders, and big thinkers to a group of visionaries, leaders, and big thinkers to spot trends in their areas of discipline and give us insight into where we are heading. 

 

There will be change – sometime dramatic change – in our future, and there is.....hope.


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
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Special Report: Forecasting Comes of Age

Special Report: Forecasting Comes of Age | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
Corporate finance departments have come to rely on forecasting in previously unimagined ways.
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Don’t create overly complex forecasts: use scenario planning logics to delimit and target your foresight efforts. Before you start, the most important question to ask is, “what decisions are you going to make from this forecast?” Don’t intermingle black swan contingency planning (weather and asteroids) in with decision scenarios.

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National Intelligence Council Global Trends and Scenarios Towards 2030

National Intelligence Council Global Trends and Scenarios Towards 2030 | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

The US intelligence's trend and scenario analysis they found fit to share with the public.

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Forecasting vs. Scenario Planning - Trends & Scenario Group

Forecasting vs. Scenario Planning - Trends & Scenario Group | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
How should forecasting and scenario planning be balanced? Few will win the future in an increasingly competitive, complex, and interdependent world.
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Black Swans and Hurricanes: Taleb and Kahnemann Explain Why That In Crisis, "Any Map Won't Do"

Understanding our biases, the illusion of patterns, and the perception of risk and denial are central to making good decisions and improving governance and financial institutions.

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Managing Traumatic Change: Prioritize Scenario Planning to Restrategize and Redeploy

Managing Traumatic Change: Prioritize Scenario Planning to Restrategize and Redeploy | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat," said Sun Tzu. When turbulent times put leaders and their plans to the test,  anytime is the best time to engage in scenario planning.

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Why Planning for a Crisis is the Best Way to Prevent It

Why Planning for a Crisis is the Best Way to Prevent It | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

A focus on crisis management planning eradicates obvious flaws and areas of vulnerability. Conducting scenario planning exercises identify areas of vulnerability which need to be addressed, early warning systems that need to be developed, skill deficiencies which need to be addressed and actions which need to be taken to reduce risk. Without training and planning, these flaws remain unidentified but lie dormant, carrying the ever-present threat of a damaging crisis.


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Disciplined Leaders Favor Scenario Planning: Temporal Myopia- Making Bad Long-term Decisions

Disciplined Leaders Favor Scenario Planning: Temporal Myopia- Making Bad Long-term Decisions | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Long-term planning is a skill best accomplished by conscious awareness of how the disproportionate sway of short-term gratification affects our allegedly rational decisions. No other species can conceptualize time or think about the future, or are capable of understanding or quantifying periods of time.

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Hype, History and Haircuts: Revisiting Eurozone Currency Scenarios

In the last century, sixty-nine countries have exited currency areas. Almost all of the exits from a currency union have been associated with low macroeconomic volatility while almost all economic analysts argued that dire consequences would follow for previous defaults and devaluations (Asia 1997, Russia 1998, Argentina 2002, and Iceland 2008). However, history shows that following defaults and devaluations, countries experienced two to four quarters of economic contraction, but then real GDP grew at a high, sustained pace for years.

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The Best and Worst Board Meetings

The Best and Worst Board Meetings | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Board members are chosen for their brainpower, and those brains need to be put to use. By using board time to confirm and expand assumptions and possible trajectories, the board will have the advantage of maximizing the opportunities and confronting the challenges of the future before they emerge. Finally, they will feel appreciated when their anticipations are heard, their time is used wisely, and their brainpower is flexed.

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Scenario Planning: Slippery When Wet

Scenario Planning: Slippery When Wet | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

In his blog post, Criticisms of scenario planning as undertaken by law departments, Rees Morrison Esq. has put forth  8 considerations regarding the effectiveness of scenario planning. See the comments to the criticism in this post.

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