Scenario Planning...
Follow
1.3K views | +0 today
 
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
onto Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook
Scoop.it!

Trends & Scenario Group

Trends & Scenario Group | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Trends & Scenario Group is led by Matthew Spaniol and is dedicated to helping leaders get the most out of their scenario planning activities. Based in Copenhagen, Denmark, Trends & Scenario group operates worldwide. For help getting the most out of your scenario planning activities or to learn more about getting started with strategic scenario planning, contact Matthew Spaniol at +45 5012 6444, write to msp (at) trendscenario.com or on Skype at Springer08

more...
No comment yet.
Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook
All about Scenario Planning as a tool for strategy development
Your new post is loading...
Your new post is loading...
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Trends & Scenario Group

Trends & Scenario Group | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Trends & Scenario Group is led by Matthew Spaniol and is dedicated to helping leaders get the most out of their scenario planning activities. Based in Copenhagen, Denmark, Trends & Scenario group operates worldwide. For help getting the most out of your scenario planning activities or to learn more about getting started with strategic scenario planning, contact Matthew Spaniol at +45 5012 6444, write to msp (at) trendscenario.com or on Skype at Springer08

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Germany’s 12th Man at the World Cup: Big Data

Germany’s 12th Man at the World Cup: Big Data | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

"Jérôme Boateng asked to look at the way Cristiano Ronaldo moves in the box, to use another example. And before the game against France, we saw that the French were very concentrated in the middle but left spaces on the flanks because their full-backs didn’t push up properly. So we targeted those areas.”

Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Now the prep work can really begin: Scenario rehearsals.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Scenario Planning for White South Africa

Scenario Planning for White South Africa | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
Scenario planning is something of a cottage industry in South Africa and was particularly popular during the negotiations for democracy in the early 1990s. Careers were launched on the back of this...
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Power is: shaping the discourse for decades to come in a single blow- a revealation of the sustaining omnipresence of scenario planning.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Scenarios for Ukraine

Scenarios for Ukraine | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Amidst the severe geopolitical tensions that followed the political changes in the country, Scenarios for Ukraine is designed to provide insight into the different policy paths available to the country’s new leadership, beyond short-term interests and political positions.

Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

1. Strategic rather than tactical thinking; 2. Inclusive rather than divisive processes; 3. Comprehensive rather than piecemeal approach.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

The Secret To Airbnb's Freakishly Rapid Orgy Response: "Scenario Planning"

The Secret To Airbnb's Freakishly Rapid Orgy Response: "Scenario Planning" | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
An Airbnb guest used a Manhattan apartment to hold a sex party last week. Here's how the company prepared a rapid response to the situation.
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Fast Company confuses Scenario Planning with Contingency Planning. Lessons in Anticipation.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Scenario Planning Fail

Scenario Planning Fail | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

The group, which included local government officials, business representatives, academics, civil society people and ordinary citizens, foresaw the collapse of the local economy in the wake of such series of disasters. They did not reckon then that only one of those disasters would be enough to do that. Neither did they foresee farther the local economy falling apart. And yet the damage wreaked by Yolanda on Tacloban City and other areas goes way beyond economic collapse.

Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Scenario planning can be a powerful tool- if done properly. Here is a case where it failed to yeild the results it purports. How ready are you? 

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Complexity, Systems Thinking, Ecology and Scenario Planning

Complexity, Systems Thinking, Ecology and Scenario Planning | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Future Thinking Isn’t About The Future, It’s About The Present; you may not be able to predict the future but you can build it.

more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol from LeadershipABC
Scoop.it!

The End of Competitive Advantage

The End of Competitive Advantage | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Virtually all strategy frameworks and tools in use today are based on a single dominant idea: that the purpose of strategy is to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage. This idea is strategy’s most fundamental concept. It’s every company’s holy grail. And it’s no longer relevant for more and more companies...


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

To operate, we need a new set of assumptions about how the world works and “a new playbook to compete and win when competitive advantages are transient.”

more...
Tom Hood's comment, June 4, 2013 9:35 AM
I love Rita's work and this is a great read. Her big idea that competitive advantage is fleeting is on point. The way she recommends dealing with it to become systematic about innovation and she offers a "playbook" framework. I agree with Christopher's caution about not changing for change's sake. Thanks!
Suchitra Mishra's curator insight, July 1, 2013 11:42 PM

Brilliant insights. Need to read this before reviewing/creating your organizational strategy

Tony Brugman (Bright & Company)'s curator insight, July 2, 2013 10:48 AM

Steve Denning discusses this intriguing new book called 'The End of Competitive Advantage'. According to the author Rita Gunther McGrath, all our current ideas about strategy and competitive advantage are based on the 'old economy'. The 'Creative Economy', however, requires a different strategy approach.


For example, "one of the biggest changes is “to stop thinking of within-industry competition as the most significant competitive threat. (..) Today, competition can come from anywhere. Now entire product lines—whole markets—could be destroyed almost overnight as customers defect in droves by “big bang disruption."

Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Forecasting and Scenario Planning: US and China Economic Update

Forecasting and Scenario Planning: US and China Economic Update | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

At this event, participants were presented with the latest economic updates about the US in China by Carsten Valgreen, Applied Global Macro Research and Thomas Haugaard, Handelsbanken. After, Matthew Jon Spaniol, Trends & Scenario Group and Graham Slack, A.P. Moller Maersk, provided practical and theoretical insight into how companys use forecasting and scenario planning as tools for decision analysis, strategy development, and planning for disruption.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Auditing the Future

Presentation at the Audit Committee Conference

Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

The future is accellerating towards us- overcome the "muddling through" to beat the curve.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Auditing the Future - Trends & Scenario Group

Auditing the Future - Trends & Scenario Group | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
What if we could begin auditing the future before it happens? How can we pass judgement on a strategy that is still only a sparkle in someone’s mind?
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Stress-Testing the Strategic Plan Using Scenario Planning Techniques

more...
No comment yet.
Rescooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol from Megatrends
Scoop.it!

The World in 2033: Big Thinkers And Futurists Share Their Thoughts

The World in 2033: Big Thinkers And Futurists Share Their Thoughts | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Could you have predicted the success of the web, tablets and smartphones, privatized space travel, the rise of terrorism, or the myriad of small changes that impact how you live today?  

 

Forbes have gathered a group of visionaries, leaders, and big thinkers to a group of visionaries, leaders, and big thinkers to spot trends in their areas of discipline and give us insight into where we are heading. 

 

There will be change – sometime dramatic change – in our future, and there is.....hope.


Via Kenneth Mikkelsen
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Special Report: Forecasting Comes of Age

Special Report: Forecasting Comes of Age | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
Corporate finance departments have come to rely on forecasting in previously unimagined ways.
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Don’t create overly complex forecasts: use scenario planning logics to delimit and target your foresight efforts. Before you start, the most important question to ask is, “what decisions are you going to make from this forecast?” Don’t intermingle black swan contingency planning (weather and asteroids) in with decision scenarios.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Pregnant with the Future: Amazon.com's Drones Fertilized by Scenario Planning

Pregnant with the Future: Amazon.com's Drones Fertilized by Scenario Planning | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

"Amazon employs people whose job it is to think seven years ahead," he said. "Something like this is the end result of the scenario planning they do every day."

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

The Scientific Problem That Must Be Experienced - Issue 15: Turbulence - Nautilus

The Scientific Problem That Must Be Experienced - Issue 15: Turbulence - Nautilus | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
When the German physicist Arnold Sommerfeld assigned his most brilliant student a subject for his doctoral thesis in 1923, he admitted…
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Catching up with the future.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Nigeria: Possible Trajectories of the Boko Haram Conflict

Nigeria: Possible Trajectories of the Boko Haram Conflict | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

I think it may be germane to start with what we all probably know, that scenario planning - also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis - is merely a strategic planning method used by companies and countries to make flexible long-term plans or to plan for eventualities. It is not a prophecy of what will happen or what one wants to happen.

Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Adapted from a presentation to the executives of Chevron, Lekki, Lagos, 7 June 2014

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

How to Link Strategic Vision to Core Capabilities | MIT Sloan Management Review

How to Link Strategic Vision to Core Capabilities | MIT Sloan Management Review | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

A firm’s strategic vision essentially boils down to a bet on some perceived future or futures. The present methodology hedges this bet against a broad range of scenarios, while extracting as much as possible from existing synergies. It strives for synergistic resilience in the development of a firm’s core capabilities.

Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

NB: Sloan has offered a limited-time-only open access on the linked article. The link may be unavailable in the future.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Crowdsourced Meta-Scenarios for High-Tech Futures

Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

The nexus of cloud, mobile, social, and information.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

CIOs: Scenario Planning Can Save Your Job

CIOs: Scenario Planning Can Save Your Job | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
Most CIOs are committing management malpractice.
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Malcolm Gladwell: Albert O. Hirschman and the Power of Failure

Malcolm Gladwell: Albert O. Hirschman and the Power of Failure | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

Beneath Hirschman’s elegant sentences, you can hear a deeper argument. Exit is passive. It is silent protest. And silent protest, for him, is too easy. “Proving Hamlet wrong” was about the importance of acting in the face of doubt—but also of acting in the face of fear. Voice was courage.

Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Room for dissent is room for improvement.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Strategic Gaming 2.0 — Combining LEGO Serious Play and Scenario Planning

Strategic Gaming 2.0 — Combining LEGO Serious Play and Scenario Planning | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

LEGO's director of strategic risk management, Hans Laessøe, pointed out the uncertainty of even short-term global demand forecasts.While scenario planning can't forecast the future, the outcomes from its exercises help managers assign task forces around the necessary actions implied by the scenarios and create early warning indicators that can highlight the emergence of one scenario or another, giving the company a head start on the competition.

Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

The future is not one dimensional, nor is it simple. Creating meaning, developing insights, generating language, and creating memories of the future through experiences with transient objects allows organizations to take complexity head-on with confidence and built-in flexibility.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Scenarios Open Doors - Harvard Business Review

Scenarios Open Doors - Harvard Business Review | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it

"...sustained scenario practice can make leaders comfortable with the ambiguity of an open future. It can counter hubris, expose assumptions that would otherwise remain implicit, contribute to shared and systemic sense-making, and foster quick adaptation in times of crisis. Scenarios can build social capital within and beyond the organization. They can aid in navigating complexity and conflict—managing disagreement while avoiding the extremes of groupthink and fragmentation. At Shell and elsewhere, scenarios have helped leaders prepare for futures that might happen, rather than the future they would like to create."

Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Scenarios provide the right framework for appreciating fundamental long-term choice, which is not the same as next year’s annual plan.
—Peter Voser, Shell’s CEO 2009+

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

The Diversity that is Scenario Planning: Church of Scotland

The Diversity that is Scenario Planning: Church of Scotland | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
THE Church of Scotland is to be asked to adopt strategies used by corporate giants such as Shell and BP to help plan for its uncertain future.
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Organizations of all types use scenario planning to find and explore the paths ahead.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Can the U.S. Dollar Become Almighty Once Again? | TIME.com

Can the U.S. Dollar Become Almighty Once Again? | TIME.com | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
A stronger dollar could be a bellwether of an improving economy and a brighter outlook for U.S. stocks.
more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

The Law of Unintended Consequences: SITME and Venezuela's Currency Market

The Law of Unintended Consequences: SITME and Venezuela's Currency Market | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
The Law of Unintended Consequences: SITME and Venezuela's Currency Market - Universia Knowledge@Wharton
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

Devaluation enhances Venezuela's position in the global currency wars.

more...
No comment yet.
Scooped by Matthew Jon Spaniol
Scoop.it!

Forget Overcrowding. The World Population Could Start Declining.

Forget Overcrowding. The World Population Could Start Declining. | Scenario Planning & Strategy Playbook | Scoop.it
The world’s seemingly relentless march toward overpopulation achieved a notable milestone in 2012: Somewhere on the planet, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the 7 billionth living person came into existence.
Matthew Jon Spaniol's insight:

The impacts of demographic changes are key to developing global scenarios.

more...
No comment yet.