The basic reproductive ratio, R , is defined as the expected number of secondary infections arising from a single individual during his or her entire infectious period, in a population of susceptibles. This concept is fundamental to the study of epidemiology and within-host pathogen dynamics. Most importantly, R often serves as a threshold parameter that predicts whether an infection will spread. Related parameters which share this threshold behaviour, however, may or may not give the true value of R . In this paper we give a brief overview of common methods of formulating R and surrogate threshold parameters from deterministic, non-structured models. We also review common means of estimating R from epidemiological data. Finally, we survey the recent use of R in assessing emerging diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza, a number of recent livestock diseases, and vector-borne diseases malaria, dengue and West Nile virus.
Las revelaciones son importantes porque durante varias décadas los funcionarios de la salud animaron a la gente a reducir su ingesta de grasas, lo que ocasionó que mucha gente consumiera alimentos bajos en grasa, pero con alto contenido de azúcar.
SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Una nueva investigación indica que un hombre de Utah que contrajo zika de su padre enfermo podría haberse contagiado tras haber tocado las lágrimas o el sudor de su padre con las manos, de acuerdo con una investigación publicada el miércoles por la revista New England Journal of
APRENDE DE UNA MANERA FÀCIL : Los marcadores de tumores son sustancias producidas por las células cancerosas o por otras células del cuerpo como respuesta al cáncer o a ciertas afecciones benignas (no cancerosas).
Although lower than other estimates, our results offer more evidence that the true symptomatic incidence of dengue probably falls within the commonly cited range of 50 million to 100 million cases per year. Our mortality estimates are lower than those presented elsewhere and should be considered in light of the totality of evidence suggesting that dengue mortality might, in fact, be substantially higher.
Background. Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a regular epidemic in Thailand. The peak of the dengue epidemic period is around June to August during the rainy season. It is believed that climate is an important factor for dengue transmission.Method. A mathematical model for vector–host infectious disease was used to calculate the impacts of climate to the transmission of dengue virus. In this study, the data of climate and dengue fever cases were derived from Chiang Mai during 2004–2014, Thailand. The value of seasonal reproduction number was calculated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection.Results. The mosquito population was increasing exponentially from the start of the rainy season in early May and reached its the peak in late June. The simulations suggest that the greatest potential for the dengue transmission occurs when the temperature is 28.9 °C. The seasonal reproduction numbers were larger than one from late March to end of August and reaching the peak in June. The highest incidences occurred in August due to the delay of transmission humans-mosquito-humans. Increasing mean temperature by 1 °C, the number of incidences increases 28.1%. However, a very high or very low temperature reduces the number of infection.Discussion and Conclusion. The results show that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of the climate. The rainfall provides places for the mosquitoes to lay eggs and develop to the adult stage. The temperature plays an important role in the life cycle and behavior of the mosquitoes. A very high or very low temperature reduces the risk of the dengue infection.
The objective of this work was to inform the design of a rapid response program to support evidence-informed decision-making in health policy and practice for the Americas region. Specifically, we focus on the following: (1) What are the best methodological approaches for rapid reviews of the research evidence? (2) What other strategies are needed to facilitate evidence-informed decision-making in health policy and practice? and (3) How best to operationalize a rapid response program? The evidence used to inform the design of a rapid response program included (i) two rapid reviews of methodological approaches for rapid reviews of the research evidence and strategies to facilitate evidence-informed decision-making, (ii) supplementary literature in relation to the “shortcuts” that could be considered to reduce the time needed to complete rapid reviews, (iii) four case studies, and (iv) supplementary literature to identify additional operational issues for the design of the program. There is no agreed definition of rapid reviews in the literature and no agreed methodology for conducting them. Better reporting of rapid review methods is needed. The literature found in relation to shortcuts will be helpful in choosing shortcuts that maximize timeliness while minimizing the impact on quality. Evidence for other strategies that can be used concurrently to facilitate the uptake of research evidence, including evidence drawn from rapid reviews, is presented. Operational issues that need to be considered in designing a rapid response program include the implications of a “user-pays” model, the importance of recruiting staff with the right mix of skills and qualifications, and ensuring that the impact of the model on research use in decision-making is formally evaluated. When designing a new rapid response program, greater attention needs to be given to specifying the rapid review methods and reporting these in sufficient detail to allow a quality assessment. It will also be important to engage in other strategies to facilitate the uptake of the rapid reviews and to evaluate the chosen model in order to make refinements and add to the evidence base for evidence-informed decision-making.
La Organización Mundial de la Salud advirtió que una de cada nueve muertes en el mundo es a causa de la exposición a la contaminación del aire. Casi no existen ciudades en el mundo donde la contaminación no sea un problema.
In a systematic review, Su Golder and colleagues study the completeness of adverse event reporting, mainly associated with pharmaceutical interventions, in published articles as compared with other information sources.
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