Saif al Islam
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Saif al Islam
The Ongoing Killing Of a Good Man in 21st Century
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The Four Things We Know About How Civil Wars End (and What This Tells Us About Syria)

The Four Things We Know About How Civil Wars End (and What This Tells Us About Syria) | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
By Barbara F. Walter The Obama Administration continues to insist that it would like to see a diplomatic solution to the civil war in Syria. But this desire flies in the face of everything we've le...
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Brian Byrd's curator insight, October 23, 2013 11:31 PM

The Obama Administration continues to insist that they want to find a diplomatic to solution to the Civil War in Syria.  Although over the past 70 plus years, the endings were not such that.  His desires may be far fetched because of how those wars ended.  He needs to keep in mind these four things as he considers the reality of coming to a negotiated settlement with Syria. 

Civil Wars do not end quickly, it is a very long, drawn out, and delicate process.  The average length of a Civil War since 1945 has been about 10 years.  This can suggest that this war with Syria is in its early stages and that we have a long way to battle with Syria.  The later stages of a war then suggest a negotiated settlement.

The greater the number the factions, the longer a civil war can last.  Syria's war is being fought between the Assad government and at least 13 different extreme radical rebel groups whose alliances are relatively fluid to the government.  This could suggest that this particular civil war can last longer than the others since there is more influence in the situation. 

Like I mentioned before civil wars usually end in military decisions, not negotiated settlements.  Of the past civil wars the government wins about 40 percent of the time, while the rebels win about 35 percent of the time.  So this indicates that the Syrian war will end on the battlefield not because of a negotiated settlement. 

Lastly, of the wars that have ended because of a negotiated settlement they usually have two things in common.  First they tend to divide political power among the combatants based on their position on the battlefield.   This means that any negotiated settlement in Syria will need to include both the Assad regime and the Islamists, neither of whom is particularly interested in working with the other. Second, successful settlements all enjoy the help of a third party willing to ensure the safety of combatants as they demobilize. This means that even if all sides eventually agree to negotiate it’s unlikely that any country or the U.N. will be willing to send the peacekeepers necessary to help implement the peace. The likelihood of a successful negotiated settlement in Syria? Probably close to zero.

Brian Byrd's curator insight, November 4, 2013 6:29 PM

Is the this war prediction is longen than the Civil war itself. This article state things that the president should take into consideration being that he alreayd has his mind made. They suggest that the war is in its early stage which it is, although its still early to predict what could happen you can conclude that the war will be lengthy. The Syria’s civil war is being fought between the Assad government and at least 13 major rebel groups whose alliances are relatively fluid, could work against us but then again who knows. It suggests that we wont be able to negociate with these people concluding it will end on the battlefield.

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Mu'ammar Al Qaddafi: 7 June 1942 – 20 October 2011

Mu'ammar Al Qaddafi: 7 June 1942 – 20 October 2011 | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Mu'ammar Al Qaddafi 7 June 1942 – 20 October 2011 You cannot kill me. Although you can destroy my body, my spirit will live in the hearts of millions." - معمر القذافـــي Mu’ammar Al Qaddafi: ‘I am ...
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Ansar al Sharia Libya honors Abu Anas al Libi - Long War Journal

Ansar al Sharia Libya honors Abu Anas al Libi - Long War Journal | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Concordiensis
Ansar al Sharia Libya honors Abu Anas al Libi
Long War Journal
Ansar al Sharia Libya -- the al Qaeda-linked group that took part in the Sept.
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M of A - Africa Beware - These Troops Don't Come To Help

Quociente Cultural 's insight:

This New York Times piece on the U.S. army attempts to justify its existence by preparing for wars in Africa reads like an official army press release: U.S. Army Hones Antiterror Strategy for Africa, in Kansas

Here on the Kansas plains, thousands of soldiers once bound for Iraq or Afghanistan are now gearing up for missions in Africa as part of a new Pentagon strategy to train and advise indigenous forces to tackle emerging terrorist threats and other security risks so that American forces do not have to.

The first-of-its-kind program is drawing on troops from a 3,500-member brigade in the Army’s storied First Infantry Division, known as the Big Red One, to conduct more than 100 missions in Africa over the next year. The missions range from a two-man sniper team in Burundi to 350 soldiers conducting airborne and humanitarian exercises in South Africa.

The plan behind this is certainly not honest. If one wants to seriously train foreign troops or help the population one must send specialists who also understand the culture of their guest countries. But here the army plans to send troops that are trained to fight in main battle tanks and who get only 6(!) days of minimalistic cultural training by graduate students of African heritage without any additional language capacities.

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Go dreaming »» Libya to Be the Next Oil and Gas 'Paradise'? This One CEO Thinks So - TheBlaze.com

Go dreaming »» Libya to Be the Next Oil and Gas 'Paradise'? This One CEO Thinks So - TheBlaze.com | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Libya to Be the Next Oil and Gas 'Paradise'? This One CEO Thinks So
TheBlaze.com
In Libya, “everyone is going to be wealthy,” says Eni CEO Paolo Scaroni.
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Assassination pushes Libya towards civil war two years after Gaddafi death

Assassination pushes Libya towards civil war two years after Gaddafi death | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Fighting rages in Benghazi as Tripoli braces for fallout from the kidnapping of prime minister Ali Zaidan Libya marks the second anniversary of the death of Muammar Gaddafi with the country on the brink of a new civil war and fighting raging in the...
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WOW »»» Tripoli football coach escapes shooting unhurt | Libya Herald

WOW »»» Tripoli football coach escapes shooting unhurt | Libya Herald | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Tripoli football coach escapes shooting unhurt. By Ashraf Abdul Wahab. Tripoli, 14 October 2013: The coach for Tripoli's Al-Ahly football club, Hossam Al Badri, escaped unhurt after gunmen opened fire on his car on Saturday.
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Police commander shot dead in Benghazi - CNN International

Police commander shot dead in Benghazi
CNN International
(CNN) -- A senior military police commander was killed by unidentified gunmen in the Libyan city of Benghazi on Friday, the country's official news agency, LANA, reported.
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Police Commander Murdered by Unidentified Gunmen in Libya - Nigerian Bulletin

Police Commander Murdered by Unidentified Gunmen in Libya
Nigerian Bulletin
[IMG] Col.
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‘US drone strikes supreme war crime’

‘US drone strikes supreme war crime’ | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
A US analyst says CIA drone strikes constitute the supreme war crime under the Nuremberg principles.
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When Gaddafi rescued Africa financially

When Gaddafi rescued Africa financially | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
The following text is an excerpt from the book – African Awakening: The Emerging Revolutions, edited by Firoze Manji and Sokari Ekine. The selected part is under the contribution of Jean-Paul Pouga...
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Libya: Gunmen shoot down Benghazi's top cop - CBS News

Libya: Gunmen shoot down Benghazi's top cop - CBS News | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
BBC News
Libya: Gunmen shoot down Benghazi's top cop
CBS News
Libya: Gunmen shoot down Benghazi's top cop. TRIPOLI, Libya A Libyan security official says gunmen have killed the head of the regional military police in the eastern city of Benghazi.
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Tripoli soccer team pulls out of Libyan league after shooting attacks - UPI.com

Tripoli soccer team pulls out of Libyan league after shooting attacks - UPI.com | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Tripoli soccer team pulls out of Libyan league after shooting attacks
UPI.com
Tripoli soccer team pulls out of Libyan league after shooting attacks. TRIPOLI, Libya, Oct.
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Mu'tasim Billah Al Qaddafi: 18 December 1974 – 20 October 2011

Mu'tasim Billah Al Qaddafi: 18 December 1974 – 20 October 2011 | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
‘The splendour of life is that we die like we love and live in the shadows of our graves.’ - Al-Mu’tasim-Billah al-Qaddafi “We are now fighting on two fronts. One is the front to protect our besieg...
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Assassination Pushes Libya Towards Civil War Two Years after Gaddafi Murder

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Libya marks the second anniversary of the death of Muammar Gaddafi with the country on the brink of a new civil war and fighting raging in the eastern city of Benghazi, birthplace of its Arab spring revolution.

Violence between radical militias and regular forces broke out on Friday night and continued yesterday, while the capital Tripoli is braced for fallout from the kidnapping earlier this month of prime minister Ali Zaidan. Federalists in Cyrenaica, home to most of Libya's oil, open their own independent parliament in Benghazi this week, in a step that may herald the breakup of the country.

For months, radical militias and regular forces in Benghazi have fought a tit-for-tat war. Last week two soldiers had their throats slit as they slept in an army base. But Friday's killing of Libya's military police commander, Ahmed al-Barghathi, shot as he left a mosque, has became the trigger for wider violence. Hours after an assassination branded a "heinous act" by US ambassador Deborah Jones, armed units stormed the Benghazi home of a prominent militia commander, Wissam Ben Hamid, with guns and rockets.

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M of A - Why Do The Saudis Want Then Decline A UNSC Seat?

Quociente Cultural 's insight:

Today Saudi Arabia got itself elected as non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. It was the first time that Saudi Arabia gained this position and an experienced diplomat expected great Saudi influence:

No doubt, it is a show of determination that the Saudi voice should be heard lest it is taken for granted by the big powers. It is a conscious decision to be assertive on the international stage.
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Clearly, the Saudis are flaunting their prerogative to pronounce on the Syrian conflict. Many crucial decisions on Syria’s future will be taken at the Security Council through the coming year or two and Saudis want to influence them instead of being a passive onlooker.

If all this is going to be a good thing or not, time will tell. The notorious P5 gang will be looking quizzically at the great pretender. But, the point is, Security Council will now have five-and-a-half veto holding members. This never happened before and a new alchemy is called for.

But shortly after news of the election by the General Assembly ran over the ticker and the diplomats piece was published the Saudis backtracked. They declined to take the Security Council seat citing three reasons:

“The continuation of the Palestinian Cause without a just and lasting solution for 65 years, resulting in several wars that threatened international peace and security, is irrefutable evidence and proof of the Security Council’s inability to carry out its duties,” the Foreign Ministry statement said.

“The failure of the Security Council to make the Middle East a region free of all weapons of destruction, its inability to subdue the nuclear programs of all countries in the region without exception…is more irrefutable evidence of its inability to shoulder its responsibilities,” it added.

“Allowing the ruling regime in Syria to kill and burn its people through the use of chemical weapons, while the world stands idly by, without applying any deterrent sanctions against the Damascus regime, is also proof of the Security Council’s inability to carry out its duties and responsibility,” the Foreign Ministry statement said.

Notice that the first two very important and longstanding Arab issues will be barely mentioned, if at all, in "western" news reports. The Associated Press report  includes "Syria" nine times but mentions the Palestinian and WMD-free zone issue only in its thirteenth and last paragraph.

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Chaos turns Libya into back door for migrants - The Times (subscription)

The Times (subscription) Chaos turns Libya into back door for migrants The Times (subscription) A £26 million European mission to stop refugees using Libya as a staging post to cross the Mediterranean has failed because Britain and France did not...
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Senussi again seeks Hague trial - Saudi Gazette

Senussi again seeks Hague trial - Saudi Gazette | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Saudi Gazette Senussi again seeks Hague trial Saudi Gazette Mindful of the 26-day detention of Saif Al-Islam's four-man defense team in Zintan 16 months ago, the ICC order made a point of insisting that the safety of the defense lawyers be...
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Egypt in talks with Libya to free seized drivers - FRANCE 24

Egypt in talks with Libya to free seized drivers - FRANCE 24 | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Egypt in talks with Libya to free seized drivers
FRANCE 24
AFP - Egypt is in talks with Libya to secure the release of more than 20 Egyptian drivers seized by militias in the neighbouring country, the foreign ministry said on Saturday.
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Gunmen shoot and kill Libyan cmdr. in Benghazi - Press TV

Gunmen shoot and kill Libyan cmdr. in Benghazi - Press TV | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Gunmen shoot and kill Libyan cmdr. in Benghazi
Press TV
Benghazi is largely governed by militias in the absence of unified Libyan security and military forces.
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Libyan military chief assassinated in Benghazi - Al-Bawaba

Libyan military chief assassinated in Benghazi - Al-Bawaba | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Libyan military chief assassinated in Benghazi
Al-Bawaba
Al Arabiya reports that gunmen shot Barghathi outside his home, Colonel Abdullah al-Zaidi, spokesman for the security services, told Agence France-Presse.
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1+ Libya's Military Police Chief Shot Dead In Benghazi: Reports - RTT News #Libya

1+ Libya's Military Police Chief Shot Dead In Benghazi: Reports - RTT News #Libya | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Libya's Military Police Chief Shot Dead In Benghazi: Reports
RTT News
Libya's military police chief, Colonel Mustapha al-Barghathi, has been shot dead by masked gunmen in the eastern city of Benghazi, media reports citing local officials said Friday.
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SHOCKING »» 9/11 Conspiracy Author Phillip Marshall & His 2 Kids Found Dead in CA

SHOCKING »»  9/11 Conspiracy Author Phillip Marshall & His 2 Kids Found Dead in CA | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Phillip Marshall, a former airplane pilot and author whose works included the 2003 novel "Lakefront Airport" and "The Big Bamboozle: 9/11 and the War on Terror," a 2012 publication in which he theorized it wasn't al-Qaida but U.S.
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Tom Hauck's curator insight, October 19, 2013 3:33 AM

Ssshhhhhh...move along...nothing to see here....

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Down but not out – working towards legal reform in post-Gaddafi Libya - Lexology (registration)

Down but not out – working towards legal reform in post-Gaddafi Libya - Lexology (registration) | Saif al Islam | Scoop.it
Down but not out – working towards legal reform in post-Gaddafi Libya Lexology (registration) The transition inherent in moving on from Muammar Gaddafi's all-embracing autocracy in Libya towards an inclusive democracy, which inspired the 17...
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In Libya, Migrants Face Ordeals at Sea and in Jail - ABC News

In Libya, Migrants Face Ordeals at Sea and in Jail ABC News The first time the young mother tried to flee to Europe on a rickety boat of fellow migrants from Africa, the overcrowded vessel quickly broke down and filled with water, forcing it to...
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