Following a year in which BMI believes saw muted growth in some and decreasing volumes in other freight transport modes in Russia, 2013 will signal better growth dynamics and new historic highs in some of the modes.
Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 5.85% in 2013 following an estimated growth of 4.75% in 2012.
There are three key themes to watch in Russia’s freight transport market in 2013, with all of them offering upside risk to our forecasts for this sector. The Russian government’s privatization drive will continue to roll on in 2013, with port stakes and rail freight units still to be auctioned off. On top of privatization, in the rail freight sector specifically, we are seeing a consolidation of players with major mining and steel producing firms selling their transport subsidiaries and major private logistics players developing in Russia’s rail freight system.
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Federal Freight Company
Murmansk Shipping Company (MSC)
Primorsk Shipping Corporation (PRISCO)
FESCO Transportation Group (FESCO)
Sovcomflot (SCF Group)
Table: Russia Politics Table
Global Industry Overview
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
Refiners: Is The Party Over?
Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
Risks To Outlook
Table: Russia - Economic Activity
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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