Referendum 2014
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Referendum 2014
The Scottish independence referendum and the debate about Scotland's constitutional future
Curated by Peter A Bell
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Latest ICM poll puts Yes camp ahead by 8%

Latest ICM poll puts Yes camp ahead by 8% | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
SCOTLAND is on the road to independence, according to a new ICM poll, which places the Yes campaign a full eight points ahead.
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New poll: support for Yes is up eight points in a month

New poll: support for Yes is up eight points in a month | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
Support for Scottish independence has risen eight points in a month, according to a new poll.
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A surprising development

A surprising development | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
The rather sour Times leader linked in the tweet doesn't actually specify the numbers, and the poll isn't officially released yet as we write this, but we'd been hearing rumours of a Y47 N53 (excl....
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Press Conference: RIC canvassing evidence shows No campaign have lost working class Scotland

Press Conference: RIC canvassing evidence shows No campaign have lost working class Scotland | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
The Radical Independence Campaign (RIC) revealed today(1) (Tuesday) the evidence of their canvassing in working class communities across Scotland, and argue that “the results show the No campaign i...
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People agree with Scottish Government on currency union | Yes Scotland

People agree with Scottish Government on currency union | Yes Scotland | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it

The majority of people in Scotland - encompassing both men and women, and including Labour voters - agree that sharing the pound in a currency union is in the interests of both Scotland and the rest of the UK, a new poll confirms today.

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Yes 48% No 52%: record high for indy in 'breakthrough' poll

Yes 48% No 52%: record high for indy in 'breakthrough' poll | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
THE Yes campaign is within touching distance of a historic victory in the independence referendum, according to a new poll, which puts the two sides almost neck and neck.

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SCOT goes POP!: Reasons to be sceptical about the changes in the new Survation poll

I've been away all day, but I've finally had a chance to catch up with the way Survation are reporting the findings of their own poll, and quite frankly it's laughable.  It's obviously a matter of perception whether the No campaign can be reasonably said to have a "commanding" lead when Yes are on 43% - just 7% from victory.  But one thing that is undeniable is that it's a much lower lead than in countless polls we've seen in this campaign, especially up until a few months ago.

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Three percent will put Yes ahead as polls show gap continues to close | Yes Scotland

Three percent will put Yes ahead as polls show gap continues to close | Yes Scotland | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it

Commenting on the latest Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday - which puts support for Yes at 47%, and within touching distance of success on September 18 - Yes Scotland Chief Executive Blair Jenkins said:

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Study: undecided voters more likely to back indy...but not by enough for Yes

Undecided voters are more likely to back independence, but not in high enough numbers to win a Yes vote in the referendum, according to new research.

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Scottish independence: ‘Yes’ at 41% in new poll

Scottish independence: ‘Yes’ at 41% in new poll | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
POLLING firm Survation have recorded their highest-ever level of support for a ‘Yes’ vote in September’s Scottish independence referendum in a new opinion poll.

Peter A Bell's insight:

Polling expert Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said blah, blah, blah!

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UK Government refuses to publish £47K indy survey

UK Government refuses to publish £47K indy survey | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
IT would be against the public interest to publish the details of a controversial Whitehall survey on Scottish attitudes towards independence, which cost taxpayers almost £47,000, the Cabinet Office has concluded.
Peter A Bell's insight:

This is all nonsense, of course. It is a survey we are talking about here, not confidential advice to ministers from civil servants. There can be only one explanation for the UK Government's refusal to publish the poll and that is that the results conflict with the British nationalist propaganda line.

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In the public interest

In the public interest | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
We got another letter from the government today. After a sudden outbreak of candour last week with regard to the civil service writing Buzzfeed articles, this is more the sort of thing we're accust...
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Referendum poll woes for 'No'

Referendum poll woes for 'No' | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it

One swallow does not a summer make, as the saying goes.

In politics, opinion polls are rather like swallows.

So we might adapt that phrase slightly to the current circumstance in Scotland to say that one poll does not a political autumn make.

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Sterling tumbles as poll puts Yes campaign within 'touching distance of victory' - Telegraph

Sterling tumbles as poll puts Yes campaign within 'touching distance of victory' - Telegraph | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it

Analysts say sterling could fall further in the run-up to Scotland's independence vote on September 18

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Breakthrough poll shows that Yes has the big momentum | Yes Scotland

Breakthrough poll shows that Yes has the big momentum | Yes Scotland | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it

Yes Scotland has welcomed a poll which shows the highest support yet for Yes in a YouGov survey.

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Latest indy poll: Yes 42%, No 48%, Undecided 11%

Supporters of the call for Scotland to become an independent country received a boost after halving the No campaign's lead, the first major opinion poll since the second televised debate suggests.
Peter A Bell's insight:

What a treat it is to be able to say that Blair McDougall is right about something. It is perfectly true that "people are thinking seriously about the choice we face". Where the hapless architect of Project Fear goes wrong is in imagining that he and his fellow British nationalists can take comfort from this. The reality is that the more people think about those choices, the more likely they are to vote Yes.

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The 'Missing Million' ... most will say Yes

The 'Missing Million' ... most will say Yes | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it

The question of Scotland’s ‘missing million’ has been a recurring one during the referendum campaign. According to the Electoral Commission Scotland, turnout at the 2011 Holyrood elections was 989,540 lower than the 1992 general election. So, where have all these erstwhile voters gone?

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Yes vote advancing despite currency fears - poll

Yes vote advancing despite currency fears - poll | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: ALEX Salmond is losing the battle to convince voters that his currency plans are credible – yet people are still moving to a Yes vote, a new poll reveals today.

Peter A Bell's insight:

The fact that support for Yes is steadily increasing would seem to suggest that these "currency fears" don't amount to much. And it's just possible that the uncertainty about the Scottish Government's position on currency might not be totally unrelated to the continuing misrepresentation of that position in the mainstream media.

One can only speculate as to what the polls would be indicating now if the media had been honest with the people of Scotland. Or even if they had been more rigorous in their scrutiny of Better Together's propaganda.


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Aberdeenshire SNP: YES Aberdeenshire Comment On Ellon Debate Exit Poll

Aberdeenshire SNP: YES Aberdeenshire Comment On Ellon Debate Exit Poll | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it

Commenting on the results of the entry and exit polls conducted by Ellon Community Council at their Independence Referendum debate on Tuesday evening, a spokesman for YES Aberdeenshire said:

"Although just a straw poll, this is still a very encouraging set of results. It confirms that undecided voters tend to become 'Yes' voters once they have a chance to get the facts on independence for themselves.

"There's all to play for in September's Scotland-wide vote but this is just another indication that in Ellon as in everywhere else, the momentum is firmly with those seeking a 'Yes' vote."

Attendees polled on their way into the debate responded: Yes 42%, No 36% and Undecided 22%. Following the debate, the figures were Yes 56%, No 35% and Undecided 9%. - See more at: http://aberdeenshiresnp.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/yes-aberdeenshire-comment-on-ellon.html#sthash.KfqVvKhc.dpuf

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More and more people are saying No Thanks as Salmond fails on Plan B

A new poll has confirmed an increase in support for Scotland staying in the UK following Alex Salmond’s failure to come clean about his Plan B for currency.

Peter A Bell's insight:

When will the UK Government and the British parties come clean about their threat to abolish the currency union? Who made the decision to issue this threat? Why was there no cabinet discussion of this major new policy? Why was there no consultation with the Bank of England? Where the CBI and other relevant organisations asked for their views?

Was an assessment carried out of the impact on the rUK economy of abolishing the currency union? If there was, why is the UK Government keeping the findings under wraps? If no impact assessment was carried out, who is responsible for this reckless omission?

What is the UK Government's "Plan B" on debt? What plans have been made to deal with the necessary implications of abolishing the currency union?


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Independence: More ‘don’t knows’ veer towards Yes

Independence: More ‘don’t knows’ veer towards Yes | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
UNDECIDED voters are more likely to come down on the side of independence in the referendum – but not in enough numbers to secure victory for the Yes camp.

Peter A Bell's insight:

This would appear to confirm a fairly well-established trend. As people learn more and more about the aims and aspirations of the independence movement; as they hear the rational, pragmatic arguments; as they begin to question the ever more exaggerated assertions of the anti-independence propagandists, they naturally tend to move towards a Yes vote.

Informed people vote Yes. It's as simple as that.


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Poll shows Labour supporters are being won over by Yes campaign

Poll shows Labour supporters are being won over by Yes campaign | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
THE Yes campaign is winning the crucial battle to persuade Labour voters to support independence, a new poll shows today.

Peter A Bell's insight:



I couldn't resist a small smile of satisfaction when I read the words "major blow" being applied to the anti-independence mob. For the last couple of years we've heard little else form the mainstream media but accounts of one "major blow" after another raining down on the Yes campaign - every one of which actually turned out to be an ineffectual slap based on what was quickly exposed as some distortion, misrepresentation or downright dishonesty on the part of Better Together, the British parties and/or the UK Government.

The news that traditional Labour voters are being won over by the positive case for independence is very welcome and really comes as no surprise. although it has to be allowed that it is almost as likely that these voters have been put off by unionist lies and scaremongering as it is that they have been attracted by the Yes campaign's message. It was always going to be the case that, as people became better informed about the respective offerings of the two sides in the referendum debate, they would tend towards a Yes vote. The by their bungling incompetence and grinding negativity the No campaign has induced increasing numbers of people to look at the alternative. And they like what they see.

For every Labour voter that decides to vote Yes there are several more who are induced by these conversions to start questioning what Better Together is telling them. And what Better Together is telling the people of Scotland simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny of any kind. One of the most common things one hears these days is people saying how they were convinced No voters until some obvious lie from the No campaign made them stop and think. The last thing that British nationalist wanted was people thinking. They wanted people paralysed with fear.

What applies to Labour voters also applies to other categories, such as women. We are approaching the tipping point where the trickle of conversions to Yes becomes a stream and than a flood. As this happens, the No campaign will grow ever more shrill and hysterical as they try desperately to hang on to their diminishing support, thus causing more and more people to question their message and their methods. It's a self-reinforcing process that can only lead to a Yes vote in September.


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Westminster urged to publish independence poll

Westminster urged to publish independence poll | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it
INFORMATION Commissioners in both Scotland and England have been urged to intervene in a bid to force the UK Government to reveal details of unpublished polling on attitudes to Scottish independence.
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Boost for Yes as new poll shows No lead in single figures

Boost for Yes as new poll shows No lead in single figures | Referendum 2014 | Scoop.it

Results of a newly published survey have revealed that the gap between those backing Scottish independence and those againts is just seven points.

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