POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics
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Pollsters Probably Didn’t Talk To Enough White Voters Without College Degrees

Pollsters Probably Didn’t Talk To Enough White Voters Without College Degrees | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
Let’s take two fairly obvious data-driven conclusions from the 2016 election and see if there’s any link between them. The first conclusion: Education was almos…
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Column: What Americans' declining height has to say about the economy

Column: What Americans' declining height has to say about the economy | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
Americans are not standing tall, and our malign neglect of the mixed economy bears a great deal of the blame.
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For Some, Scientists Aren't The Authority On Science

For Some, Scientists Aren't The Authority On Science | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
Science isn't a universal mechanism for guiding beliefs, but it's our best guide to the natural world: If we can agree on that, there's a chance the rest will follow, says blogger Tania Lombrozo.
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College Doesn’t Make You Liberal

College Doesn’t Make You Liberal | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
Despite Rick Santorum’s arguments, research indicates that attending college doesn’t make students more liberal or less religious.
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How wrong were the presidential polls and predictions?

How wrong were the presidential polls and predictions? | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
On 14 July 2016 the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was polling seven points ahead of his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. A billionaire property developer who had never been elected t
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Police are using software to predict crime. Is it a ‘holy grail’ or biased against minorities?

Police are using software to predict crime. Is it a ‘holy grail’ or biased against minorities? | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
Prediction software can help focus resources, but some worry about the potential for bias.
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4 Possible Reasons The Polls Got It So Wrong This Year

4 Possible Reasons The Polls Got It So Wrong This Year | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
The national polls weren't that far off, but something was clearly up in the state polls.
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Women Actually Do Govern Differently

Women Actually Do Govern Differently | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
Research suggests that women in politics tend to be more collaborative and bipartisan, and to focus on social issues more than men.
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Data Literacy Will Make You Invincible - Shelly Palmer

Data Literacy Will Make You Invincible - Shelly Palmer | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
Because the velocity of data is increasing and will always increase, the need for data literacy is increasing and will always increase.
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In Presidential Contest, Voters Say ‘Basic Facts,’ Not Just Policies, Are in Dispute

In Presidential Contest, Voters Say ‘Basic Facts,’ Not Just Policies, Are in Dispute | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
Just 18% of U.S. adults say that while Clinton and Trump supporters often differ over plans and policies, they can agree on basic facts.
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The Odds That a Panel Would 'Randomly' Be All Men Are Astronomical

The Odds That a Panel Would 'Randomly' Be All Men Are Astronomical | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
One mathematician’s formula suggests that all-male lineups don’t “just happen,” despite what conference organizers might claim.
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Why political science falls short in predicting elections

Why political science falls short in predicting elections | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
The best models for political scientists seem to be the ones that are deployed far in advance of elections, so as not to be tainted by actual politics or the campaigns themselves. Even less statistically driven models seem to assume elections are over before they start. I too am guilty of that, and have argued that because of the Electoral College and partisan alignments, the 2016 election was largely over two years ago except in a handful of 10-12 swing states such as Ohio, or that only about 15 counties will matter this election cycle. Political science models describe how firm partisan and demographic factors such as race and gender are in determining whether and how individuals will vote. 

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We checked Trump’s allegations of voter fraud. We found no evidence at all.

We checked Trump’s allegations of voter fraud. We found no evidence at all. | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
There weren't millions of fraudulent votes.
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There Have Been 200 Shootings Of Police This Year

There Have Been 200 Shootings Of Police This Year | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
And police in states without background checks on all handgun sales were twice as likely to be shot, according to new data.
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Explanations for that shocking 2% shift - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Explanations for that shocking 2% shift - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
The title of this post says it all. A 2% shift in public opinion is not so large and usually would not be considered shocking. In this case the race was close enough that 2% was consequential. Here’s the background: Four years ago, Mitt Romney received 48% of the two-party vote and lost the presidential …
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Flossing and the Art of Scientific Investigation

Flossing and the Art of Scientific Investigation | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
As dentists demonstrate, there’s more to evidence than the randomized controlled trial.
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Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump

Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it

 But although this finding is clear in a statistical sense, that doesn’t mean the interpretation of it is straightforward. It seems to me that there a number of competing hypotheses that are compatible with this evidence, some of which will be favored by conservatives and some by liberals (hypotheses deleted..read the article)

So data like this is really just a starting point for further research into the campaign. Nonetheless, the education gap is carving up the American electorate and toppling political coalitions that had been in place for many years.

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Voters’ perceptions of crime continue to conflict with reality

Voters’ perceptions of crime continue to conflict with reality | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
Despite double-digit decreases in U.S. violent and property crime rates since 2008, most voters say crime has gotten worse during that span.
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Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else

Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
Based on what most of us would have thought possible a year or two ago, the election of Donald Trump was one of the most shocking events in American political h…
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Just how does the general election exit poll work, anyway?

Just how does the general election exit poll work, anyway? | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
The firm that conducts the exit poll plans to interview about 100,000 voters nationwide, in person and on the phone, by the time polls close election night.
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Clinton-Trump Probably Won’t Be The Next ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’

Clinton-Trump Probably Won’t Be The Next ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
We’re getting to that point in the presidential campaign — with one candidate leading by a lot — when the losing candidate’s supporters start to bring up the …
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And the Winner Is …? Using Statistics to Predict the 2016 Presidential Election

And the Winner Is …? Using Statistics to Predict the 2016 Presidential Election | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
In this lesson students analyze data like current polling numbers, primary results and voter turnout in order to design a strategy for predicting the outcome of the 2016 presidential election.
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How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages | POL300 Theory, Data and Statistics | Scoop.it
The U.S.C/Los Angeles Times poll has consistently been an outlier, showing Donald Trump in the lead or near the lead.
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