Plant Pest Modeling
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Predicting and managing extreme weather events - PhysicsToday.org

Predicting and managing extreme weather events - PhysicsToday.org | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Earth’s climate is warming, and destructive weather is growing more prevalent. Coping with the changes will require collaborative science, forward-thinking policy, and an informed public.

 

Lubchenco J, KarlTR (2012) Predicting and managing extreme weather events

Physics Today. March 2012, p. 31.

 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.1475

 

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Plant Pest Modeling
About computer systems using forecasting models, databases and decision support schemes in managing plant pest interactions with crop/canopy and weather/climatic data
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Best business idea: Application Posadi.si will help to produce vegetables in the new gardening season

Best business idea: Application Posadi.si  will help to produce vegetables in the new gardening season | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Best business idea in Slovenia (by Petra Šubic)

 

Posadi.si is a Digital gardening assistant , which is based on a planting calendar. "But because they are already many on the market, our version offers more - the weather forecast specifically for users of the gardeners, reminders and alerts, a forum for the exchange of knowledge, as well as the main information and advice on vegetables, use of fertilizers, pest control and optimal planting of vegetables with taking into account the good and bad neighbors," says Tilen Blazic.

Innovative ideas and their advantage over competing solutions is also the upgrading of sawing calendar with additional useful information to users, which can be quickly found in one place. "We currently run a website www.posadi.si, we have profile on Facebook and Twitter, and we hope to set up a functional blog and a forum for knowledge exchange, where experts answer questions, because we know that only good and useful content can increase virality and visibility, "adds Tilen Blazic, who is in the team Posadi.si with his brother Bojan Blazic, Marko Novak, Peter Krivec and Robert Malečkar.

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Visit their web site http://www.posadi.si/

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The five-member team is finalizing the development of test versions of applications, and gathers hobby gardeners who will be first users... Visit their web site http://www.posadi.si/

They plan to upgrade applications with useful content for fruit growers, growing herbs and ornamental plants...

Abigail Rumsey's curator insight, January 16, 4:02 AM

A Slovenian team has developed this app for gardeners, which has potential for use in farming too.

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Grape phenology and GDD accumulation

Grape phenology and GDD accumulation | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Grape phenology and GDD accumulation

GDD base 50 accumulated since April 1 = +2780 (+591 departure from normal) at Mountain Grove http://agebb.missouri.edu/weather/reports/gddTable.asp. Phenology stages according to the Modified E-L system http://door.uwex.edu/files/2010/10/ModifiedEichhornLorennzsystem.pdf ...

Posted on August 6, 2012 by Marilyn Odneal

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The USA National Phenology Network is Up and Running

Continental-scale monitoring is vital for understanding and adapting to temporal changes in seasonal climate and associated phenological responses. The success of monitoring programs will depend on recruiting, retaining, and managing members of the public to routinely collect phenological observations according to standardized protocols. Here, we trace the development of infrastructure for phenological monitoring in the US, culminating in the USA National Phenology Network, a program that engages scientists and volunteers.

doi: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/110281


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US: University of Florida develop greening model - FreshPlaza

US: University of Florida develop greening model - FreshPlaza | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Fresh Plaza: Citrus Greening has cost Florida’s economy an estimated $3.63 billion in lost revenues since 2006 and poses a huge threat to the state’s $9 billion citrus industry, the nation’s largest. It weakens and eventually kills infected trees. For now, there is no cure, although growers are using cultural management strategies to keep groves productive.

 

University of Florida researchers have created a mathematical model that shows how citrus greening is transmitted within an infected tree – an important step toward helping scientists understand the devastating disease.

The model, published this month by the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, revealed that once a tree is infected, insecticides to control the pests that spread the disease may not be enough to halt the disease’s progression in the tree, and instead may only slow its spread within the tree.

Removal of obviously diseased new growth, called flush, or shoots, is not a solution either. The model shows that even without showing symptoms, many shoots may already be infected so that infection of other parts of the tree can continue.

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Modeling of Yield Losses Caused by Potato Late Blight on Eight Cultivars with Different Levels of Resistance to Phytophthora infestans

Modeling of Yield Losses Caused by Potato Late Blight on Eight Cultivars with Different Levels of Resistance to Phytophthora infestans | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

The Shtienberg model for predicting yield loss caused by Phytophthora infestans in potato was developed and parameterized in the 1990s in North America. The predictive quality of this model was evaluated in France for a wide range of epidemics under different soil and weather conditions and on cultivars different than those used to estimate its parameters.


Plant Disease, Volume 96, Issue 7, Page 935-942, July 2012.

Toky Rakotonindraina, INRA; Jean-Éric Chauvin and Roland Pellé, INRA; Robert Faivre, INRA; Catherine Chatot; Serge Savary and Jean-Noël Aubertot, INRA, France http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-09-11-0752

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Spring Blossoms Arriving Even Earlier than Models Predict | Ecology Global Network

Spring Blossoms Arriving Even Earlier than Models Predict | Ecology Global Network | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it
Rising temperatures are causing spring blossoms to appear earlier than in years past, and it's happening more dramatically than current models predict.

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Helping Africa researchers improve crops, sustainability

Helping Africa researchers improve crops, sustainability | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

WSU News: Decision-support systems, such as those available through WSU’s AgWeatherNet, help agricultural professionals decide when to use frost control, apply pest control measures and make other decisions critical to the success of their crops.

The workshops resulted in a textbook, "Improving Soil Fertility Recommendations in Africa using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT),” recently published by Springer. The book offers examples of how decision-support systems were applied in simulation to various agricultural management and conservation practices.

Washington State University SU agrometeorologist Gerrit Hoogenboom helped lead a series of workshops in Tanzania, Ghana and Kenya to transfer decision-support system technologies to researchers in African nations.

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D.C. cherry trees: Blooms won't wait in warming world, research finds

D.C. cherry trees: Blooms won't wait in warming world, research finds | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Plant phenology models that consider when plants bloom and bear fruit in response to temperature are used for agricultural crops such as apples and grapes.

 

This type of predictive model will become increasingly useful when it is capable of making real-time forecasts," the authors wrote. For fruit crop production, for example, plant-growth models might someday help predict flowering dates so farmers know when to arrange with bee handlers to have their apple, pear, peach trees and other deciduous fruit trees pollinated as well as optimize the use of resources with minimal environmental impacts.

PhysOrg.com

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Observe Plants and Animals | USA National Phenology Network

Observe Plants and Animals | USA National Phenology Network | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Welcome to Nature's Notebook, a national plant and animal phenology observation program. You can join thousands of other individuals who are providing valuable observations that scientists, educators, policy makers, and resource managers are using to understand how plants and animals are responding to climate change and other environmental changes. Observations by participants like you are already helping researchers detect early leaf-out in forests from St. Louis to Maine in response to unusually warm winters and springs

 

#TPO12 Ilex vomitoria #phenology new leaves 18MAR12 Visit NPN: http://t.co/DMr9hBNm Yaupon holly http://t.co/L6US4dAz...

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Field Distribution of Wheat Stripe Rust Latent Infection Using Real-Time PCR

Field Distribution of Wheat Stripe Rust Latent Infection Using Real-Time PCR | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Stripe rust of wheat, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. tritici, is of worldwide significance. Quantification of latent infection level is critical to estimate the potential for disease epidemics. In this study, field distribution of latent infection and the corresponding observed disease were studied in two growing seasons from 2009 to 2011 in Gangu, Gansu Province and Shangzhuang, Beijing, China. A previously developed real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was applied to obtain the molecular disease index (MDX) to quantify the level of latent infection. At 1 to 3 weeks after leaf sampling, the observed disease indices (DX) were assessed in the corresponding experimental sites. The computer software SURFER showed that the spatial distribution patterns of MDX had a linear relationship with DX in field plots with P = 0.01.

 

Plant Disease, Volume 96, Issue 4, Page 544-551, April 2012.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-08-11-0680

 

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Predicting and managing extreme weather events - PhysicsToday.org

Predicting and managing extreme weather events - PhysicsToday.org | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Earth’s climate is warming, and destructive weather is growing more prevalent. Coping with the changes will require collaborative science, forward-thinking policy, and an informed public.

 

Lubchenco J, KarlTR (2012) Predicting and managing extreme weather events

Physics Today. March 2012, p. 31.

 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/PT.3.1475

 

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Predicting Take-All Severity in Second-Year Wheat Using Soil DNA Concentrations of Fungal Causal Agens

Predicting Take-All Severity in Second-Year Wheat Using Soil DNA Concentrations of Fungal Causal Agens | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Bithel SL et al. (2012) published results of DNA-based take-all prediction of the risk of wheat disease. This information could improve prediction of the risk especially if it was combined with the weather data model.


The lack of accurate detection of Gaeumannomyces graminis var. tritici inoculum in soil has hampered efforts to predict the risk of severe take-all for wheat growers. The current study used a molecular method to quantify soil G. graminis var. tritici concentrations in commercial wheat fields in New Zealand and to compare them with the proportion of crops surpassing the thresholds for visible and moderate to severe take-all over three growing seasons.

The study evaluated a soil G. graminis var. tritici DNA-based take-all prediction system developed in Australia, with four take-all risk categories. These categories were found to be useful for predicting disease severity in second wheat but did not clearly separate risk between fields in medium- and high-risk categories.

Bithel SL et al. (2012) Predicting Take-All Severity in Second-Year Wheat Using Soil DNA Concentrations of Gaeumannomyces graminis var. tritici Determined with qPCR.- Plant Disease, Volume 96, Issue 3, Page 443-451, March 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-05-11-0445

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Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative

Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Weather and climate affect agricultural production in the Caribbean significantly where rainfall variability results in droughts and floods. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the impacts of natural variability and its extremes by, for example, an increasing frequency and intensity of events like floods and droughts.


The project has been launched to promote an integrated approach to sustainable development in the Caribbean region through the co-ordination and networking of the limited meteorological services available and their supporting regional and international research institutions. 

Agrometeorological applications will be improved and will contribute to increased and sustainable agricultural productivity at farm level in the Caribbean region through improved dissemination and application of weather and climate information. 

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Near Remote Sensing to Track Changes in Phenology in Forests

Near Remote Sensing to Track Changes in Phenology in Forests | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

This year, the Richardson Lab of Harvard University and the Friedl lab of Boston University set out to study climate change using two different methods, remote sensing and near remote sensing in phenology of forests.


Phenology is the study of life cycles in various organisms. Specifically, we’ve been looking at tree phenology, tracking spring leaf out (when the trees start growing leaves after lying dormant all winter) and autumn senescence (when the leaves begin to change colors and drop from the trees). This summer, we have had the opportunity to challenge the question “Can webcam imagery track phenological changes?”


Team Harvard By Dmitri Ilushin, Sascha Perry, and Hannah Skolnik Team Harvard is comprised of Dmitri Ilushin of Harvard University; Sascha Perry, Lincoln University in Missouri; and Hannah Skolnik of Columbia University

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July Flowering Phenology « Nature Inquiries «

July Flowering Phenology « Nature Inquiries « | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it
by Carl Strang Before July, first flower dates had been running about 2 weeks early this year. Past experience led me to expect that the interval would drop as the summer progressed. So, what actually happened at Mayslake ...
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Biosecurity and Invasive Species: F1000 July review

Biosecurity and Invasive Species: F1000 July review | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Invasion ecologists have invoked phenology as one explanation of the apparent success of non-indigenous forest species compared to native species. This paper shows that the invasion of forest species with canopies that persist later into autumn is resulting in a seasonal change in primary productivity that may rival climate change in size and extent.

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Organic Eprints - Monitoring Agriotes lineatus and A. obscurus in organic production using pheromone traps

Organic Eprints - Monitoring Agriotes lineatus and A. obscurus in organic production using pheromone traps | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Wireworms, particularly Agriotes lineatus and A. obscurus are becoming a problem in organic crop production causing economically severe damage on potatoes and other arable crops. Since pesticide application for direct control is not allowed in organic farming, reliable methods for quantifying wireworm infestation levels and forecasting damage are urgently needed for any control strategy. In the present work, the assessment of the range of attractiveness of pheromone traps to male A. lineatus and A. obscurus beetles was investigated in 2006 and 2007. The results indicated that the trap recovery rate of released beetles was more dependent on release distance than on time. Recovery rates greater than 40% were only noted for short release distances (up to 10 m), while less than 10% of the beetles released at a distance of 60 m returned to the traps. Recovery rates of click beetles were also negatively affected by cold and wet weather conditions. Most of the beetles were recovered within the first 3 days.

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Drought During Corn Pollination

Drought During Corn Pollination | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it
Dr. Bob Nielsen, Purdue Extension Corn Agronomist, visits a drought stressed cornfield during pollination in west central Indiana. Shown and discussed are the symptoms of drought-stressed corn and the skewed synchrony of ...
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Grape phenology and GDD accumulation – What's happening in the ...

Grape phenology and GDD accumulation – What's happening in the ... | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Phenology stages according to the Modified E-L system

They begun accumulation growing degree days on April 1. Here are the phenology stages observed recently. http://door.uwex.edu/files/2010/10/ModifiedEichhornLorennzsystem.pdf. N Traminette E-L Stage 14-17. N Concord E-L Stage 21. N Sunbelt E-L Stage 23.

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Development of Weather-Based Predictive Models for Fusarium Head Blight and Deoxynivalenol Accumulation for Spring Malting Barley

Development of Weather-Based Predictive Models for Fusarium Head Blight and Deoxynivalenol Accumulation for Spring Malting Barley | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

 The associations between Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused by Gibberella zeae, and deoxynivalenol (DON) accumulation in spring malting barley (Hordeum vulgare) and hourly weather conditions predictive of DON accumulation were examined using data from six growing seasons in the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Nine predictor variables were calculated using hourly temperature and relative humidity during the 10 days preceding full head spike emergence. Simple logistic regression models were developed.

 

Bondalapati KD, Stein JM, Neate SM, Halley SH, Osborne LE, Hollingsworth CR (2012) Development of Weather-Based Predictive Models for Fusarium Head Blight and Deoxynivalenol Accumulation for Spring Malting Barley.- Plant Disease May 2012, Volume 96, Number 5, Pages 673-680 http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-05-11-0389.

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Clark County added to gypsy moth quarantine zone

Clark County added to gypsy moth quarantine zone | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Trapping data and field surveys indicate that the gypsy moth, an invasive insect that favors a diet of oak leaves, is reproducing and taking hold in three more Wisconsin counties.

 

Gypsy moth was brought from Europe to the Boston area in 1869 and has since spread into much of the Northeastern and Midwestern United States and Canada. It was discovered in Wisconsin in the late 1960s. Counties in eastern Wisconsin were placed under quarantine starting in 1993. The leading edge of the gypsy moth infestation now stretches from Rock County to Bayfield County.

“If we did nothing to control the gypsy moth, that leading edge would’ve been through Wisconsin and into Minnesota now, with much more damage done. We will continue our work to eliminate isolated outbreaks in non-quarantined areas and slow the spread of gypsy moth across Wisconsin,” Kuhn explained (director of the Plant Industry Bureau at the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection).

 Leader-Telegram

 

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Niches: More Phenology

Niches: More Phenology | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

More Phenology - Wayne 

Yesterday I mentioned that the extremely warm March (coupled with all three winter months being warmer than average) had galvanized my reexamination of timings of flowerings and emergences of spring plants. Some of these go back to 2004 or 2005. Because this year is so extreme, I’ve looked at previous years' observations and have determined a midpoint based on blog entries and photographs.

wayne@sparkleberrysprings.com

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Prediction model gives optimum fungicide timing for sclerotinia - FarmersWeekly

Prediction model gives optimum fungicide timing for sclerotinia - FarmersWeekly | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Prediction model gives optimum fungicide timing for sclerotinia;  FarmersWeekly

 

The risk of sclerotinia outbreaks in the crop have typically been hard to predict, with many factors influencing the effect the disease can have on the crop.

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Spring rains, warmth boost insect numbers - Mississippi State University

Spring rains, warmth boost insect numbers - Mississippi State University | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

Mississippi State University, USA: Spring rains, warmth boost insect numbers

 

“Many Mississippians wonder whether the mild winter will increase the insect pest populations in their gardens and fields this year. However, spring weather could be the more significant factor, said Mississippi State University experts. For example, you can have a really harsh winter that kills most of an overwintering population of insects, but a very favorable spring, where..."

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Forecasting agricultural output using space, agrometeorology and land based observations

Forecasting agricultural output using space, agrometeorology and land based observations | Plant Pest Modeling | Scoop.it

This document presents the proceedings of the annual review meeting by India Meteorological Department (IMD) on “Forecasting Agricultural Output Using Space, Agrometeorology and Land Based Observations” (FASAL) organized at YASHADA, Pune during 1-2 August 2011.

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