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Complexity, the science of cities and long-range futures

The emergence of a ‘science of cities’ provides the foundations for long-range futures research that may be applied to models of climate change, with a time horizon in excess of 150 years. The features of a complexity theory of cities have been developed at multiple levels with scientific analogies such as ecology, biology and physics. The following principles apply: 1. Complexity science unifies a wide variety of urban phenomena including emergence, technological evolution, civil phase transitions, macrolaws, and resilience to system failures and extreme events. 2. World urbanisation raises the number of levels in the urban hierarchy, with an increasing number of megacities with over 10 m inhabitants. 3. Urban development involves the institutional coordination of technological development with engineered transformations. 4. Civil and societal transitions arise with increasing per capita investment, such that some social norms and planning standards have consistent scaling factors across a range of city sizes for countries at similar stages of development. 5. The trajectory of the urban system depends upon the allometric pattern of growth for cities, and human settlements in 2150 will occupy less than 10% of the world's land area.

 

Complexity, the science of cities and long-range futures
Robert Hugh Samet

Futures

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2013.01.006

ComplexInsight's curator insight, January 22, 6:29 PM

Not sure I agree with the suggestions made but an interesting read to ponder on.

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Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation.

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Collaboration in social networks

The very notion of social network implies that linked individuals interact repeatedly with each other. This notion allows them not only to learn successful strategies and adapt to them, but also to condition their own behavior on the behavior of others, in a strategic forward looking manner. Game theory of repeated games shows that these circumstances are conducive to the emergence of collaboration in simple games of two players. We investigate the extension of this concept to the case where players are engaged in a local contribution game and show that rationality and credibility of threats identify a class of Nash equilibria—that we call “collaborative equilibria”—that have a precise interpretation in terms of subgraphs of the social network. For large network games, the number of such equilibria is exponentially large in the number of players. When incentives to defect are small, equilibria are supported by local structures whereas when incentives exceed a threshold they acquire a nonlocal nature, which requires a “critical mass” of more than a given fraction of the players to collaborate. Therefore, when incentives are high, an individual deviation typically causes the collapse of collaboration across the whole system. At the same time, higher incentives to defect typically support equilibria with a higher density of collaborators. The resulting picture conforms with several results in sociology and in the experimental literature on game theory, such as the prevalence of collaboration in denser groups and in the structural hubs of sparse networks.

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