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Analysis of the Emergent Properties

Analysis of the Emergent Properties | Papers | Scoop.it

This paper illustrates the use of the nonparametric Wald-Wolfowitz test to detect stationarity and ergodicity in agent-based models. A nonparametric test is needed due to the practical impossibility to understand how the random component influences the emergent properties of the model in many agent-based models. Nonparametric tests on real data often lack power and this problem is addressed by applying the Wald-Wolfowitz test to the simulated data. The performance of the tests is evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations of a stochastic process with known properties. It is shown that with appropriate settings the tests can detect non-stationarity and non-ergodicity. Knowing whether a model is ergodic and stationary is essential in order to understand its behavior and the real system it is intended to represent; quantitative analysis of the artificial data helps to acquire such knowledge.

 

Jakob Grazzini (2012)

Analysis of the Emergent Properties: Stationarity and Ergodicity

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 15 (2) 7

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Navigating the Anthropocene: Improving Earth System Governance

Science assessments indicate that human activities are moving several of Earth's sub-systems outside the range of natural variability typical for the previous 500,000 years. Human societies must now change course and steer away from critical tipping points in the Earth system that might lead to rapid and irreversible change. This requires fundamental reorientation and restructuring of national and international institutions toward more effective Earth system governance and planetary stewardship.

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